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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 561

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 9:49:29 AM | message detail
I doubt it matters unless you think Link affected one more than the other.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/8/2008 9:49:58 AM | message detail
the Dante section of my bracket is about all I really care about right now. that thing is beyond huge, and a bigger mess than division 1.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 9:50:59 AM | message detail
Crono has the advantage simply because Link is no longer there, I think, but it's very close.

What about KOS-MOS/Frog? In the BOP I saw that Frog was the overwhelming favorite, despite KOS-MOS doing well and Frog doing not so well last year.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 9:51:50 AM | message detail
Division 7 is pretty straightforward, at least in my opinion. I don't really know where there's anything debatable, unless people are expecting Hogger to do something.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 9:52:35 AM | message detail
You NEVER pick against Frog if it's close. Ever.

Same reason you always pick against DK if it's close.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 9:54:33 AM | message detail
He's got to lose a close one someday. >_>

Dante's division isn't that bad. Kirby>BB, Chief>Raiden, Leon>Riku, Dante>Ramza, Chief>Kirby. Only Dante/Leon/Riku and Chief/Dante/Kirby are debatable.

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transience | Posted 9/8/2008 9:55:26 AM | message detail
you've got Riku/Leon/Dante. Pikachu's match last year is beyond weird in ways I don't think I need to go into. 34% when the thing got 24% on Vivi/Tidus? what?

then, depending on who's there, you've got Dante/Kirby. you've got Kirby coming off Brawl and a DS remake that comes out in two weeks vs. Dante coming off DMC4, and if you've got Leon there's that dead weight attached.

then you've got Sonic/Master Chief, and if you've got Kirby there's a Samus/Snake-like dearth of Brawl votes for Sonic.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
ZFS | Posted 9/8/2008 9:56:41 AM | message detail
Only Dante/Leon/Riku and Chief/Dante/Kirby are debatable.

Those are brutal because there's a lot of points involved there. And whoever comes out of the first match determines what happens in the second.
H__RR____H | Posted 9/8/2008 9:56:57 AM | message detail
Uh...no offense, but do you know anything about Lucas? >_>

I understand he stars in the most recent Mother game, though I don't know much about him, no. I had assumed he had been in more than one of them though, which is why I believed the rumor he was supposed to replace Ness in SSBM to a degree.


I just noticed... HaRRicH argues for Ness a lot. [...] In fact, I remember having this exact same debate only with Captain Falcon. <_<
HRRH has used Ness in more arguments over the years than I can even count.
Just now? I noticed this at least two years ago.


Haha, I'm not even crazy about the guy. He was my main in SSB, enjoyed him in SSBM, and now think he's outshined by Lucas in SSBB (Lucas is probably my third fave in SSBB's cast, behind Solid and Ike, and Ness is further down the line).

I do feel like this is a very make-or-break year for him to me in these contests though. He's been so odd over the years. He's been smashed by Bowser and especially Mario, though he did almost as well against Mario as DK did. He beat Jak in a highly debated match and was just shy of matching Scorpion against Auron, then upset the board against GTA:SA's star CJ...then goes on to blow a great opportunity last year...

...Mewtwo shouldn't SFF Ness anywhere near like what Mario or even Bowser did, if at all (probably a little though). Pac-Man's an icon who's hard to judge and may be sensitive to Nintendo or recognizable characters anyway. If Ness = Scorpion and Scorpion > Pac with ~57% still hold true (which isn't certain, but I like those numbers more than anything else we've clearly seen), then Ness blowing this despite SSBB's momentum would finish off the benefits of the doubt I've given him over the years.


Not sure if it's a good or bad thing.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 9:58:52 AM | message detail
I just took Dante>Riku, Chief>Dante, then Sephy>Chief and felt pretty good about it. >_>

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Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2008 10:04:48 AM | message detail
I switched to Dante > Riku but kept Chief > Kirby

so woo
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/8/2008 10:37:32 AM | message detail
Vincent/Crono, Part #3: I'm taking Vincent again (and have him advancing past Mario/Samus in the next round too). Vincent looked like he boosted between 2k5 and 2k6, Crono's looked worse since their 2k5 match, and Vincent beat Crono last year. Samus won't take as much of the percentage as Link and Ryu's going to be different from Zero in whatever ways, but Vincent still won with over a percent despite bracket voting heavily in Crono's favor, and it's not like their percentages will be breaking 30+%-territory anyway. Also, for those who felt like Link and Zero being SNES-staples are what hurt Crono against Vincent, it's worth considering that Samus and Ryu have their named etched in SNES history as well. Not to the same degree, mind you, but SF2 is probably bigger than any MMX game and SM is still arguably Samus's biggest game (though I'd take MP > SM). Crono still wouldn't have it easy in that regard if that's a factor here.


Division #7: I think Dante's second round match is ****ing tricky, assuming it's Leon/Riku/Dante/Ramza. We saw Dante/Leon last year, so I've felt like having Riku > Dante would be the slick pick...but as I've been thinking about it more, the more I think about how Ramza is in the poll so he probably detracts from Riku...and they're all PS1/2 characters this year whereas Pikachu and Ammy were different, so I don't know if/how that will affect the match. Throw in DMC4 (and it being multi-platform), and things are just nuts there. I'm sticking with Riku > Dante, but man...

...then round three is tricky as well with MC/Kirby/Riku/Dante. MC beat Dante last year in a poll with Solid and L-Block taking the majority of the votes while MC was still hot from Halo 3 and before DMC4 hit the PS3 and 360. I still like MC, but nothing is safe just from those two. Riku in the mix is kinda scary too since Yoshi > Kirby and he's the only RPG character (and KH, not counting SSB, is the biggest series represented here)...but Riku barely beat Hayabusa in the second round after getting embarrassed in the first round last year whereas Dante smashed Hayabusa in 2k6, so Riku doesn't look good. It becomes a battle between Kirby and Dante for probably second place...and I like Kirby. Both Kirby and his series got a lot more face-time in SSBB, SSBB's still hot, he's about to get a DS-release, he's not far from Yoshi, he's the only Nintendo character in the poll (and has definitely been around the longest and covered the most systems/games, too), and Riku might bother Dante. I'll take Kirby in a rough battle for second place while MC "comfortably" wins in comparison to the rest...

...in Seph/Sonic/MC/Kirby, I've got Seph > MC. I think Sonic-n-gang bombed in the format last year and he only really excelled immediately after he was announced in SSBB. He's rather disappointing in SSBB and Kirby's in the poll, a good candidate to absorb a lot of his newfound support. MC was ~2 from Solid while L-Block was there last year. I think for this, we can assume Sephiroth will take a LOT of votes like L-Block did...Kirby has my bet of being a bit stronger in this poll than Dante last year, and I still don't think Sonic will be as strong as Solid last year before Kirby comes into the mix. So...if Seph/Kirby take ~50% of the poll like L/Dante did and Sonic can't match Solid's 26.2%, then MC has a VERY good shot. Since we saw Solid beat sonic with ~7% to spare last year and Kirby is likely going to keep Sonic's SSBB-support in check, the only mystery left is if MC is still hot like he was was post-Halo 3. I'm predicting he's still be strong enough from his run last year to do it, but it's still very scary.
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MnMZero | Posted 9/8/2008 10:57:28 AM | message detail
SF2 is probably bigger than any MMX game and SM is still arguably Samus's biggest game (though I'd take MP > SM).

A small point, but if you think Ryu gains more of his popularity from the SNES than Zero, you're probably wrong. Outside of that Bowser match, which was simply a result of Ryu crumbling before the Koopa King, Ryu's core fanbase has shown to be pretty widespread and consistent.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
H__RR____H | Posted 9/8/2008 11:11:05 AM | message detail
Allow me to clarify -- I don't think Ryu gets as much support as Zero from the SNES, but I do think they are both big names on the SNES and it's worth recognizing Ryu as a big name both from the system and era Crono's from. Same goes for Samus and Link. My point for those backing this theory was that Crono wasn't going to simply get all of the SNES support since Samus and Ryu each had huge games on the SNES as well, even if they aren't taking as much as Link/Zero (supposedly?) did.

If the theory is true, then I think this should be considered in the discussion. If not, then the match's pivotal point almost solely becomes who gets the new 15%-20% that Link/Zero-to-Samus/Ryu leaves.
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Lobby Hero
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transience | Posted 9/8/2008 11:14:40 AM | message detail
time for L-Block to ruin your fun

(Ryu gets a whole lot of his strength from the SNES)
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 11:27:48 AM | message detail
I think people vastly overestimate the "importance" of someone being the only Nintendo/Square/RPG/Brawl/PSX/whatever character in a poll, or there being multiple characters from the same console that otherwise have NOTHING in common. I don't know why it matters. People tried to argue that in favor of Ness last year, and guess what? It didn't matter then, and it doesn't matter now. That's just stretching for a point.

you've got Riku/Leon/Dante. Pikachu's match last year is beyond weird in ways I don't think I need to go into. 34% when the thing got 24% on Vivi/Tidus? what?

The weirdness wasn't Pikachu. It was Leon/Dante, and what's stopping it from being weird again? Riku's stronger than Pikachu anyway, I'd wager. Easy pick.

then, depending on who's there, you've got Dante/Kirby. you've got Kirby coming off Brawl and a DS remake that comes out in two weeks vs. Dante coming off DMC4, and if you've got Leon there's that dead weight attached.

If you think Leon's dead weight, he's not making it ahead of Riku, so I don't see the problem. I don't see Brawl doing big things for Kirby. After all, he was already announced as a returning character before last year's contest, and he's a returning character anyway. I doubt there's much of a boost for returning characters in a game like Brawl. Dante's been ahead of Kirby in just about every contest, from what I can recall. DMC4 means more for Dante than Brawl does for Kirby, as strange as that may sound. I doubt the Superstar remake for DS does much for him either. I think people overestimate the impact of a release sometimes.

then you've got Sonic/Master Chief, and if you've got Kirby there's a Samus/Snake-like dearth of Brawl votes for Sonic.

Psh, that's not division 7! That's the quarterfinals!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/8/2008 11:31:59 AM | message detail
The weirdness wasn't Pikachu. It was Leon/Dante, and what's stopping it from being weird again? Riku's stronger than Pikachu anyway, I'd wager. Easy pick.

Pikachu got 36% against Tidus/Isaac/Serge and 34% against Leon/Dante/Amaterasu. you don't think that's weird?

I think Kirby benefits from Brawl a lot because it's Kirby's main source of strength. Kirby is actually viable in Brawl. I'd say it's pretty large. bigger than DMC4? no idea. but it's big.

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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 11:35:02 AM | message detail
you don't think that's weird?

Yeah, but I don't think it was Pikachu's doing.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MnMZero | Posted 9/8/2008 11:36:49 AM | message detail
If the theory is true, then I think this should be considered in the discussion. If not, then the match's pivotal point almost solely becomes who gets the new 15%-20% that Link/Zero-to-Samus/Ryu leaves.

That's what I was getting at though. I wouldn't even compare Samus/Ryu to Link/Zero as far as sharing an SNES fanbase with Crono, especially with the difference between Vincent and Crono being one percent. Link not being in the poll alone could be enough to make the difference. And I was just saying I'd also tie Zero to the SNES more than Ryu in terms of splitting a fanbase with Crono (Ryu had Arcade as well as Genesis in that era alone, let alone the tons of other games he as later on across all consoles).
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Proud Supporter of Zero
H__RR____H | Posted 9/8/2008 11:46:59 AM | message detail
Not only is Kirby big in SSBB, but the Kirby series in general is big in SSBB. The Halberd was a hyped stage that seems well-received, there are a ****-ton of songs for the Halberd stage compared to most stages, they brought back a Kirby stage, two newcomers to the series are from the Kirby series, both of the newcomers look to be among the most favored or best in the game, Kirby got jacked up from SSBM, they all get solid face-time in the SSE, the Dragoon is one of the best items in the game despite hardly anybody knowing what it was before SSBB, the Cracker Launcher can own faces if used right, Knuckle Joe's probably better than most ATs, the Unlockable-menu is straight out of Kirby's Air Ride, Kirby has a demo featured, and there's probably more...

...it's not just Kirby himself, though he can't hurt from being in SSBB nor can it hurt to be much improved. The Kirby team and style as a whole has really taken a lot of the spotlight in the game despite having Solid Snake and Sonic in the cast. It's a series that very largely helps make SSBB what it is, something few series can say about any of the SSB games...and Kirby's the face of that series.



Who knows how much that is or isn't worth, but I would think Kirby benefits more than any other original SSB character from SSBB.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 11:50:30 AM | message detail
Kirby got jacked up from SSBM, they all get solid face-time in the SSE, the Dragoon is one of the best items in the game despite hardly anybody knowing what it was before SSBB, the Cracker Launcher can own faces if used right, Knuckle Joe's probably better than most ATs, the Unlockable-menu is straight out of Kirby's Air Ride, Kirby has a demo featured, and there's probably more...

The bolded one is the only one that matters. Most voters probably don't care (or even know) that Kirby was bad in Melee.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MnMZero | Posted 9/8/2008 11:52:07 AM | message detail
Uh, did HaRRicH just take every single thing Kirby in the game and use it in an argument for contest strength?
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Proud Supporter of Zero
transience | Posted 9/8/2008 11:54:31 AM | message detail
Dragoon Parts boost baby
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
H__RR____H | Posted 9/8/2008 12:04:56 PM | message detail
Haha, I'm just saying Kirby's series made a big impact on SSBB and Kirby's the face of it. It may not mean a lot right now, but it will probably show in how Kirby's games sell in the future. I think the characters alone are all you need to argue it, but I wanted to really stress how the generally B-level series for Nintendo has really stepped up in Nintendo's biggest game in the past ten years. They got great exposure all over and people like a lot of those things mentioned...I don't think it will go unnoticed.
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Lobby Hero
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/8/2008 12:08:02 PM | message detail
Also, I left out the following: Star Rod, M Tomato, Warp Star, and Spicy Curry.

Just for you mnm. =P
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Lobby Hero
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ZFS | Posted 9/8/2008 12:17:51 PM | message detail
whoa
Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 12:33:04 PM | message detail
How did HaRRicH mention all of that stuff and not mention SSE? Kirby was probably the main character of that, if one exists. Sure SSE wasn't exactly the best received thing in Brawl but it's something.

As for me: I had Dante in second, then swapped to Kirby for one reason: Sprite round. It'll be close anyway, and Dante with his potential to become "Viewtiful" is not something I want to bet on if it's going to be close. Not to mention if Leon somehow slips past Riku, all bets are off for Dante's chances. Basically contest strength favors Dante a bit, but all of the x-factors favor Kirby.
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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 12:35:15 PM | message detail
Oh, he did, as evidenced by Leonhart's bolding. I somehow lost it in the sea of Dragoon Part and Kirby Stage hyperbole.
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MnMZero | Posted 9/8/2008 12:36:08 PM | message detail
He did Lopen. You just have to look really hard. Leonhart apparently was able to do it, somehow. I'm still searching for it as we speak in that paragraphofkirby.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
HaRRicH | Posted 9/8/2008 1:04:17 PM | message detail
Fine, fine, laugh. I still think it's a fair and legit point to say Kirby and/or his series have done as much as or more than any other original SSB character to take the spotlight in SSBB, and Kirby and/or his series are well below the Mario's, Link's, and Samus's...so we could see him benefit more because of it, especially if tranny's notion of Kirby getting a lot of his strength from the SSB series is true and he's rebounding from his role in SSBM. I also think it's fair to say SSBB has bumped up interest for the Kirby series in the future, especially if Nintendo hypes them appropriately...so I would keep an eye out for Kirby in the coming years if he gets some worthwhile releases, too.

Kirby-n-gang are rather relevant in a game with no lead characters and two out-of-company icons, and SSBB's the clear GotY right now...so I don't see why it's a joke just because I pointed out each aspect of why the series stands out more by name, especially since I never said how much it would or wouldn't matter.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 1:20:37 PM | message detail
Contest has now officially been delayed to the 18th. Ugh.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2008 1:28:37 PM | message detail
So how many more delays do we need before CTDS officially becomes contest relevant? <___________<
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/8/2008 1:29:15 PM | message detail
All part of the plan.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/8/2008 1:50:02 PM | message detail
Ike might be able to beat Pikachu 1 on 1, but in this format Pokemon just shine.

You took it way too far and probably just jinxed my account bet :(
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 9/8/2008 2:02:07 PM | message detail
it's just a couple of days. no big deal there.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Draco1214 | Posted 9/8/2008 2:15:23 PM | message detail
I can't believe Dante > Leon is the overwhelming consensus in round 2. Did everyone forget last year? Leon went from beating Pikachu by 10% to losing to him by 10% when Dante entered the poll.

Hell, this isn't even taking into account that Riku could probably beat Leon without Dante in there (45% on Yoshi vs. 45% on Bowser).
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transience | Posted 9/8/2008 2:16:16 PM | message detail
it's not. it's just that the Riku > Dante picks make it look more overwhelming.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/8/2008 2:19:04 PM | message detail
yay Draco! I feel like it's been forever since this guy posted
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
satai_delenn | Posted 9/8/2008 2:19:32 PM | message detail
I have Dante > Riku and I'm sticking by it. ...there are Riku > Dante picks? Hmm.
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/8/2008 2:21:26 PM | message detail
Honestly, I took Riku > Dante and never thought twice. Riku is probably much stronger than Pikachu (sidenote: Pikachu ain't that strong and he'll be losing to Alucard in round 2 especially if the other Brawl characters get in there).
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"Men that are trapped by chains of 'maybe' can never reach their dreams!"
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2008 2:24:37 PM | message detail
I'm probably one of the more sold on Dante/Leon SFF (especially since I mused about it pre-match), but I'm hedging my bets here. For all I know it could've been just Pikachu just standing out like hell that put him over the top there, and I'm wary for how past results dictate the future in this format.

What does this mean? Well, for one, I'm seriously considering Crono > Pikachu for Round 3...
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transience | Posted 9/8/2008 2:25:44 PM | message detail
I think the picture could have had something to do with it - RE2 Leon woo

I really don't know what happened in that match. weirdest match of the entire contest.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2008 2:30:39 PM | message detail
Thing is, if it happened because of the picture last year (maybe the godawful polygons of Dante/Leon compared to Pokemon Red/Blue Pika?), think about what we're gonna get in Round 3 this year if Ryu and Alucard make it - sure SF1 Ryu and grainy Alucard are *better*, but Pika's gonna still stand out like hell.
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transience | Posted 9/8/2008 2:31:34 PM | message detail
I trust it'll be a SF2 picture. Ryu sprites are always great. same with Crono.

I also thought about Viewtiful Dante vs. sprite Kirby.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2008 2:31:57 PM | message detail
I'm just going to say that I don't foresee Riku capitalizing off of the Dante/Leon split as much as Pikachu did for whatever reason.

weird result is weird imo pika pika pikachuuuuuu
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satai_delenn | Posted 9/8/2008 2:34:03 PM | message detail
I dunno, DMC/RE overlap has always seemed feasible to me; I banked on it last year and the match didn't disappoint, whatever the reason, so I figure I'll stand by it and see what happens. It'll be an interesting match to see, at least.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2008 2:34:32 PM | message detail
Ryu sprites are always great.

He's gotten SF1 for both times he's made the sprite round, which I've never been fond of... but you're right, by the rules a SF2 sprite will be just as legitimate for submission. Guess the only guy I don't have to worry about looking great is 'card, and he's had plenty of reasons for underperforming lately anyway.
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satai_delenn | Posted 9/8/2008 2:34:34 PM | message detail
augh Viewtiful Dante
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/8/2008 2:34:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, there's nothing that says we have to use the earliest appearance if the character appeared in multiple sprite games. We'll get SF2 Ryu and Symphony (or maybe Dawn) Alucard.
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Mustache...and green...
transience | Posted 9/8/2008 2:35:02 PM | message detail
I argued for some overlap the day before the match, but I never expected it to be anything like what happened. Leon and Dante sharing more of a fanbase than Tidus and Vivi by far? huh?
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
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