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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 560

MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/4/2008 7:38:44 PM | message detail
That idea was good. Thanks Moogle!


I live to serve.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/4/2008 7:40:00 PM | message detail
Again.

midoinitrite?
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http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/4/2008 7:40:39 PM | message detail
Looks good to me.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/4/2008 7:42:29 PM | message detail
Despite having sent in three pictures (two of them which didn't follow the rules), I have no feedback tickets. I guess sending in pictures doesn't count.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2008 7:58:49 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour
Posted 9/4/2008 8:14:04 PM
message detail
#213 If one character is significantly stronger than the other, he could actually benefit. People think that's possibly what happened to Rikku, although some think that cost her the match, too. Hard to say.


Final Fantasy characters have a fanbase pie. Rikku and Vaan both are part of this pie. Vaan takes some of the pie, there's less pie for Rikku. The reason she almost beat Knuckles is that Yoshi was hurting him more than Vaan was hurting her, which only reaffirms my assumption that if we ever see the "Mario/Sonic" faceoff, it would be a beating of Mario/Samus proportions.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/4/2008 9:36:45 PM | message detail
I told Harrich this in an e-mail, but I'll repeat it here.

Despite how I act sometimes, I really do care what people think of me. Well in this topic, anyway. I've said a LOT of stupid things (trashing statheads in a stats topic) and apologizing really wouldn't cut it, but it would mean a ton if there was some forgiveness in there. I'm not exactly a happy guy (durrr), but I really will keep that out of this topic from now on. So with that, no more trashing the regulars, loling at the x-stats or Mario/Samus arguments coming from me.

As for an actual contest question, is anyone else seriously considering Sandbag > Magus? I've gone back and forth on it a lot, because Magus has become the Squaresoft DK of these contests. He really could lose that.

~*ST*~
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/4/2008 9:38:51 PM | message detail
Don't worry Ulti, we still love ya.

And Sandbag>Magus is a very legitimate pic that scares me. I doubt Sandbag is the next L-Block, being not as all-encompassing, but its the most likely candidate for a repeat.

And even if it isn't, Magus is still really weak nowadays.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/4/2008 9:44:51 PM | message detail
If Sonic wasn't in that poll stealing all of Sandbag's Brawl power, I'd change it.

~*ST*~
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS
Seginustemple | Posted 9/4/2008 9:48:46 PM | message detail
Yeh, I don't think people will latch onto Sandbag as quickly as L-Block. Not fast enough to get him out of that match, at least.

And I've always been fine with you Ulti, despite your (misplaced) abrasiveness now and then.
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/4/2008 9:51:26 PM | message detail
Man, my mind latches onto the weirdest things. Who knew creating and submitting pics for future match pics could be fun? *is working on Zidane now*

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/4/2008 9:51:32 PM | message detail
Lots of people need to realize this: Magus is not as strong as we thought he was. But with saying that, he's not fodder. He won't lose to every character in this contest like many would have you believe.

Yeah, he suffered last contest. But putting Sandman over him? Come on now. That's only logical if you're thinking that most joke characters will do well in this contest.
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Good Times,
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ZFS | Posted 9/4/2008 9:52:44 PM | message detail
http://www.serebii.net/ssbb/items/sandbag.jpg

who wants sum

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Kept you waiting, huh?
Seginustemple | Posted 9/4/2008 9:53:52 PM | message detail
I dunno soul you can't call him sandman and then expect to make a logical argument about him
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
transience | Posted 9/4/2008 10:02:58 PM | message detail
I don't feel confident about him putting up 30% against three pieces of fodder, I'll say that much. with Sonic in the poll, he's looking at like 20-25% tops. it could be a lot lower.

if the Bag can appeal to enough people, watch out.
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xyzzy
voltch | Posted 9/4/2008 11:02:10 PM | message detail
just wondering,if people fear the sandbag,what happens if you replace with Bomb?
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2008 2:15:43 AM | message detail
I don't feel confident about him putting up 30% against three pieces of fodder

this is exactly what makes me have doubt.

it's pretty much Sonic that hesitates me.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 4:22:46 AM | message detail
No hard feelings here, Ulti. I'm not going to take some things lying down, but I don't take things personally either, if that makes any sense.

Anyway, I ain't takin' Sandbag over Magus, and I'm not taking just about any joke character to do anything. That's just the way I roll, I guess.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2008 5:17:10 AM | message detail
Sandbag over Magus seems unlikely, but it's something that's been bugging me since the bracket came out.
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/5/2008 5:22:31 AM | message detail
Out of all the joke characters, L-Block aside Sandbag is the one who has a real shot of doing something here. You only have to look at the reasonable strength Master Hand had in a 1 v 1 format and at a time when joke voting was nowhere near as prominent. Now we have

- Brawl
- Much more joke voting
- A format that lets joke votes thrive

I really hope I'm wrong but I have sandbag in the final, I really think he'll do in Magus at the least, the signs are there.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 5:31:06 AM | message detail
Uhhh...Master Hand didn't really have that much strength. He couldn't even outdo CATS.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2008 5:33:34 AM | message detail
i suppose that's the best argument against Sandbag.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/5/2008 5:42:03 AM | message detail
No, but in that format he wouldn't have to. It's debatable even at the peak of his powers what L-Block would do to someone around the fodder line, remember L-Block never did better than 33% of the vote, Master Hand actually went a got a majority.

There's no sure thing with Sandbag's level, I think we can all agree on that but if you read into recent voting trends, L-Block and assume the Smash Bros fanbase will be as loyal as always...well ok I'm not going to go into this too much until lockdown. I'd much perfer for everyone to have their brackets going against Sandbag. =P

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2008 5:49:01 AM | message detail
how would you place Sandbag in that joke poll? personally i think it probably COULD beat L-Block in it.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2008 5:55:28 AM | message detail
To play advocate against a bag of sand, it was pretty obvious from that poll that all of the entries were jokes, and thus the series power took over (SMB > Tetris > Portal > Pong isn't too debatable I'd think). I think Sandbag could've pulled it out there, but the problem for it is whether people "get" the joke and like it enough to carry it through. I think Master Hand would do better in this format, sure, but not overly so: Smash fans consider him a real, legit aspect of Smash, even if his villain credentials are a bit strained. Sandbag is sorta the same way - a little too 'familiar' and 'humanized' to become the same kind of joke. In this way, I think Smash's popularity limits its appeal in a way...

...this isn't to say he couldn't just roll right over Magus. It'll definitely be a vote to some, and with no one to steal Smash votes it could be another embarrassment.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 5:57:19 AM | message detail
and with no one to steal Smash votes

Sonic's there...
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2008 6:00:42 AM | message detail
I'll believe Sonic was in Brawl when he actually starts benefiting from it damn it
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 6:01:51 AM | message detail
Look at round 2 last year then!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MnMZero | Posted 9/5/2008 6:03:21 AM | message detail
Magus is prime to be upset by Sandbag. Contrary to everyone jumping on me for saying I don't think the bag will pull an L-Block, it could still easily take out Magus. Magus wasn't exactly a pinnacle of strength in last year's contest, regardless of his strength in a one-on-one match. There was nothing holding him back in that match with PW, Bomberman, and Crash, yet he barely was able to muster 30%. And with Sonic not exactly being dominant in this format, I see no good reason why Sandbag couldn't be able to beat Magus even with Sonic in the poll. If Phoenix Wright could muster up enough support to almost keep up with Magus, Sandbag surely could as well.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 6:05:34 AM | message detail
I find it strange that from 2003 to 2005, Sonic vs. Magus was a highly wanted and debated match, and now we have it, and people are talking about Sandbag beating Magus. Man, times have changed!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MnMZero | Posted 9/5/2008 6:06:48 AM | message detail
And I still fail at trying to fill the background of that Zero pic without it needing major edging. Yeah... I suck.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2008 6:07:35 AM | message detail
Hey hey now I still believe in Magus

...I mean why else would I have Naked Snake beating Kirby
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MnMZero | Posted 9/5/2008 6:07:39 AM | message detail
Sonic vs. Magus was a highly wanted and debated match

Get that trash out of here.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 6:08:31 AM | message detail
Don't act like it wasn't when Magus ranked above Sonic in 2003! I didn't say I thought Magus would win, just that it was debated!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/5/2008 6:10:39 AM | message detail
It was only a niche group in this topic that thought Magus had a shot at Sonic. The same people who thought Zero, Tifa, Vincent and Master Chief could have a shot at him as well incidentally. Other than them I don't think it was ever seriously considered a possibility.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 6:11:50 AM | message detail
That is definitely not true, especially considering how bad Sonic looked in 2003 and 2004.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MnMZero | Posted 9/5/2008 6:11:51 AM | message detail
Psssshh, maybe it was debated by you people.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
ZFS | Posted 9/5/2008 6:15:04 AM | message detail
sonic beating vincent - bad match right there

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woo
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2008 6:16:20 AM | message detail
Not to mention 2006 is the best Sonic's ever looked, and Vincent was able to give him a run for his money. Brawl has finally put the constant upset trains to rest for the blue blur (much like Snake), but the talk was certainly warranted.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/5/2008 8:08:50 AM | message detail
I dunno soul you can't call him sandman and then expect to make a logical argument about him

Sure I can. A joke is a joke. If you think the joke characters will do well in these contests, then pick Sandman. If you think that they won't, why are you even considering this?
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Good Times,
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2008 10:37:21 AM | message detail
The only reason I still have Magus > Sandbag is because of Sonic leeching all the Brawl votes. And Sandbag might still win anyway. I told KP on AIM the day this bracket came out that Sandbag had the best chance of pulling an L-Block in this thing.

~*ST*~
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS
Haste_2 | Posted 9/5/2008 11:18:35 AM | message detail
The "WTF, people still think Samus > Mario in 2005 was a good pick but can't find one non-stat reason to defend themselves?" version!

That one's easy. Samus did better than Mario on Link! ...unless you count that as a stat reason.

Heh, I had Sandbag winning the tournament for the first few days of the bracket. But, then I realized that Auron's a beast, so I have Sandbag losing in round 2... I hate how SBAllen placed L-Block and Sandbag.... I think it would've been more interesting in the reverse. Yeah, I have faith that Sandbag will be decent. I think it's different from Master Hand...

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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2008 11:55:28 AM | message detail
Not sure why he's entirely against stat reasoning in the first place.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2008 1:18:59 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter
Posted 9/5/2008 9:16:20 AM
message detail
#288 Not to mention 2006 is the best Sonic's ever looked, and Vincent was able to give him a run for his money. Brawl has finally put the constant upset trains to rest for the blue blur (much like Snake), but the talk was certainly warranted.


Not really. Looking at the 2005 stats and giving Vinny a small boost from AC and DoC, that match went exactly as expected. And then him putting up the same numbers Mega Man did on Snake.

Either Mega Man and Sonic both decreased in 2005 or they both stayed the same.
Big Bob | Posted 9/5/2008 1:30:01 PM | message detail
Zack vs. Sandbag
Yesmar | Posted 9/5/2008 1:42:53 PM | message detail
Hey now, since when was Master Hand a joke character?! Personally, I think that this is just revisionist history, since I don't ever remember that ever being brought up at the time. I always thought that the general consensus at the time was that no one cared about Kuja and that people just voted for the Hand because they recognized it. I really don't think there was much joke voting going on in that match. Don't forget that Master Hand won the day vote, not something that joke characters usually do. And Sin did even better, albeit it would have some reason to.

I'm fairly confident that Magus will beat Sandbag and here's why.. Let's use L-Block as a comparison. Prior to the off-site spamming for him, L-Block always got ~29% in every match. Now assuming that Sandbag follows the same type of popularity, I would say that AT MOST he gets 24% in each match, since the joke is not universal like L-Block was. Now, this leaves a total of 76% for the three remaining characters to split in such a way that Sandbag does not advance. To advance, Magus has to get AT LEAST 24% in these circumstances. Let's see if he can.

If Magus gets 24%, then I would wager Sonic gets around 20% more (Mario got just under 30% more). That brings the total percentage up to 68% (Sonic =44%, Magus = 24%) leaving Commander Shepard around 8% to get. Now, the issue here is, is that too low for Commander Shepard? Possibly, and Commander Shepard doesn't even have to be all that great to make a difference here. However, as I previously said, this is the maximum that I could see Sandbag at. In reality, I think he is probably lower. If Sandbag's base is 20%, then he doesn't stand a chance at advancing, and personally I would put him somewhere between these extremes, which is all Magus should need to advance.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
trannyscience | Posted 9/5/2008 1:46:01 PM | message detail
if Sandbag gets 24%, Magus is probably done. dude got 30% with Phoenix Wright and company. Sonic's in this poll.
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xyzzy
MnMZero | Posted 9/5/2008 1:47:47 PM | message detail
The thing is... again, Magus only got 30% against the likes of Phoenix Wright, Bomberman, and Crash Bandicoot. 24% isn't really guaranteed...
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Proud Supporter of Zero
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/5/2008 2:11:33 PM | message detail
Now, now, I don't think much of Magus anymore, but I'd still take the guy over Sandbag, especially with another Brawl character in the poll. Replace Sonic with, say, Mega Man, and maybe I'd give Sandbag a shot (especially with how casuals really don't seem to know MM, looking at how the guy's prediction percentages always seem to be low), but against someone who will tear into the Brawl base? I wouldn't be surprised if Sandbag lost to Shepard.
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WarThaNemesis2 is on life support.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/5/2008 2:20:38 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/lloyd.png

"awww yeah"
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/5/2008 2:22:09 PM | message detail
Woah what? Lloyd has a nose?

Mind = Blown
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WarThaNemesis2 is on life support.
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