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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 559

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2008 10:17:46 PM | message detail
There was no huge rally going last year. It wasn't until the semifinals that other sites starting getting in on L-Block, and since it's already been done you can count on the rest of the internet not caring about it this year.
jonthomson | Posted 9/1/2008 4:45:06 AM | message detail
oops, i let my analysis thread purge. oh well.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2008 4:52:55 AM | message detail
damn. i had no idea the majority of the site now are college students.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2008 4:53:14 AM | message detail
of course that could also be due to other country's having a different use for 'college'.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/1/2008 7:48:10 AM | message detail
In Canada you go to college because your grades weren't high enough to go to university. In the US the names are interchangeable right?
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Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0
TERRAFlRE | Posted 9/1/2008 7:50:59 AM | message detail
In the UK college is generally where you go from 16-18, like the last two years of an American high school
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therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2008 7:51:58 AM | message detail
In a general sense yes.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/1/2008 9:14:58 AM | message detail
Or Squall/Aerith/Akuma. Or Squall/Sora/Subby. Or Meta-Knight/Peach/CATS. Guess who's a lot weaker than Luigi and Bowser? Liquid Snake.

That does give a good perspective. I would expect Liquid Snake to give a similar match to Luigi or Bowser (1-on-1)as Akuma would give to Aerith. Akuma was pretty close to Aerith. I'd expect Luigi and Bowser to have greater overlap than Squall and Aerith. Sounds like Liquid Snake has a great shot here. As for Liquid Snake being crushed by multiple strong opponents... I don't think that applies much when both Bowser and Luigi have similar fanbases. My bracket has Luigi > Liquid... I may be banking too much on Bowser's failure of a showing last year, but whatever.

Also, I switched from Mega Man > Nero over to Mega Man > Tidus, since some of you seem so confident in Nero being weak... if Nero gets second some of you will be smitten! If he doesn't I will give big thanks to you and give you punch and cake!

I doubt it, but should make for an interesting result when we see Zero and MM square off again.

I'm getting this fearful feeling that Mega Man might lay the smack down on Zero... but it's just my being pessimistic.

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voltch | Posted 9/1/2008 10:43:33 AM | message detail
in this format MM/zero ought to be like cloudnseph,so a crushing and if Nero is the raiden of his series then MGS and DMC are surprisingly similar contest wise.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2008 11:45:29 AM | message detail
I would be wary of Zero against Mega Man for the record, particularly in this format.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1768

This is almost exactly a 56-44 split here. I would expect, say, Ganondorf - heck, Bacondorf - to beat Luigi by at least that much in a 1v1. Now you have to ask yourself, when Solid Snake and his good friend Tidus/Nero are in the match as well, who's going to prove more resilient with their fanbase?
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/1/2008 11:53:04 AM | message detail
So I just started doing my write-ups and was forced to think about that third match.

goddamn why must i put faith in either kefka or gta screw this match
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2008 11:58:39 AM | message detail
duke > marth bay-bee
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2008 1:14:28 PM | message detail
I wanna go back to Luigi/Bowser...I could always see where the argument was, but I think this comparison really backs Bowser > Luigi (as well as my previous stance!):

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2921
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2870

Luigi beat Pikachu by 4.85% while Bowser beat Mewtwo with Toad by 3.67%. I believe we all think Mewtwo > Pikachu, and many would take Bowser > Luigi one-on-one. It's also common consensus Toad hurt Bowser against Mewtwo. 1.18% can easily be overcome by any one of those comparisons if not all three, so Luigi shouldn't be so favored here like he is.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
Haste_2 | Posted 9/1/2008 1:15:55 PM | message detail
Niko's not black. And he probably won't suffer by a combination of both an unrecognizable picture and the less-known name. =P GTA's probably fallen, though, so that's what makes it hard... well, I'll still bank on Niko beating Kefka, as Kefka actually looked weaker than usual in SC2K7, judging by the calculations... and that's using both Morgoth's formula -and- the traditional 1-on-1 math, and it doesn't matter which match you measure Kefka from...

That still leaves Duke Nukem as a problem...he actually ranked higher than Kefka. I'm thinking he might've beaten Gordon just because he was the only recognizable character of the bunch. In Round 2 Gordon beat Duke pretty easily with the presence of Sonic and Sub-Zero. Now, you could blame that on Gordon getting "The Orange Box" around that time, but that certainly doesn't make Duke Nukem look any better.

Heck, and though Marth looked pretty good last contest getting close to DK... what if DK is actually garbage in this format? Marth may not be so safe of a pick for placing. This will all be pretty dang interesting.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2008 1:23:12 PM | message detail
I wanna go back to Luigi/Bowser...I could always see where the argument was, but I think this comparison really backs Bowser > Luigi (as well as my previous stance!):

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2921
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2870

Luigi beat Pikachu by 4.85% while Bowser beat Mewtwo with Toad by 3.67%. I believe we all think Mewtwo > Pikachu, and many would take Bowser > Luigi one-on-one. It's also common consensus Toad hurt Bowser against Mewtwo. 1.18% can easily be overcome by any one of those comparisons if not all three, so Luigi shouldn't be so favored here like he is.


I don't know where to begin with what's wrong with this comparison. Are you really comparing a match with Ryu and Toad (overlap be damned) in it to one with Master Chief and Dante?

Let's not beat around the bush here. Bowser choked away his favored spot in the second round without so much as a whimper, Luigi beat Bacondorf and put a scare into Dante with Pikachu in the poll. Then throw in the comparison of Bowser/Kirby to Luigi/Kirby and just what both characters have done since 2005... Luigi's simply looked more impressive in every regard. This is a fact.
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The Hardcore Kid | Posted 9/1/2008 1:36:33 PM | message detail
I love when a Rank Outsider wins to break the monotony but prefer it when this person's a SERIOUS contender.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2008 2:12:04 PM | message detail
It's fine to say MC and Dante > Ryu and Toad -- that much is obvious and not what my point was. I'm trying to compare what they did against other Nintendo characters, and since Luigi and Bowser each faced big-name Pokemon I felt like that made for the better comparison. Through that match, it seems a lot more impressive of what Bowser did than Luigi despite bombing against the other opponents. The other opponents in this match aren't on the level of Ryu, Dante, or MC -- Liquid can't beat any of them and Phoenix probably wouldn't get 40% on Liquid.

Also, though you can compare Bowser > Kirby to Luigi > Kirby, I can show Bowser > Yoshi and Yoshi > Luigi. That looks equally convincing.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
voltch | Posted 9/1/2008 2:26:00 PM | message detail
when was the last time a contest had so much fear going into it?
BRAWLFEAR and JOKEFEAR are the main ones but we still have some POKEFEAR and to some extent BHCFEAR(black haired cloud).

but Sandbags's got access to the top 2 aye aye aye.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2008 2:29:11 PM | message detail
Luigi beat Pikachu by 4.85% while Bowser beat Mewtwo with Toad by 3.67%. I believe we all think Mewtwo > Pikachu, and many would take Bowser > Luigi one-on-one. It's also common consensus Toad hurt Bowser against Mewtwo. 1.18% can easily be overcome by any one of those comparisons if not all three, so Luigi shouldn't be so favored here like he is.

Ha ha ha


No.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2008 2:29:16 PM | message detail
yeah i can see luigi's performance being more impressive. being 3% of Dante with Pikachu in the picture is really telling compared to being within 8% of Ryu with just Toad and a Pokemon.

but then again it's possible that Master Chief could have affected Dante somehow; i dont know. if leon could, MC must have took some away maybe?
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2008 2:30:26 PM | message detail
And beating Kirby and Zero decisively is much better than struggling with Kirby and then choking the day vote against Crono
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2008 2:33:21 PM | message detail
i dont even see why 1 on 1 matches matter when we're in a completely different format btw.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2008 2:35:32 PM | message detail
You're right. Just because he lost 95-5 against Snake, I think Tanner has a great chance of beating Snake here.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2008 2:36:14 PM | message detail
And beating Kirby and Zero decisively is much better than struggling with Kirby and then choking the day vote against Crono

Luigi beat Kirby by 2.31%. Bowser beat Kirby by 2.12%. Luigi beat Kirby decisively but Bowser struggled? Just...insult-worthy.

The day-vote doesn't matter to one's overall strength, and Bowser's had a terrible day-vote since his debut.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
ChronicYouth | Posted 9/1/2008 2:36:41 PM | message detail
That would mean you are taking 1v1 matches into account.

BT can't even take jabs at people correctly. lol internets
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2008 2:38:19 PM | message detail
You're right. Just because he lost 95-5 against Snake, I think Tanner has a great chance of beating Snake here.

false analogy. the gap between Luigi and Bowser can easily be switched if Luigi simply has more people who like him. dont be an idiot please.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2008 2:41:28 PM | message detail
I am taking 1v1 matches into account, because we have yet to see decisive evidence of people "performing differently in this format" aside from the obvious L-Block.
redrocket | Posted 9/1/2008 2:42:36 PM | message detail
You're right. Just because he lost 95-5 against Snake, I think Tanner has a great chance of beating Snake here.

Hmmm...

Cloud
Sephiroth
Squall
Solid Snake
Liquid Snake
Big Boss
Raiden
Revolver Ocelot
The Boss
Tanner

Does Tanner beat anyone in this poll?


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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 9/1/2008 2:43:25 PM | message detail
The Boss, imho

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/1/2008 2:43:33 PM | message detail
Who does the Mario poll have in front?
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Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2008 2:44:14 PM | message detail
I am taking 1v1 matches into account, because we have yet to see decisive evidence of people "performing differently in this format" aside from the obvious L-Block.

you dont even NEED to think about that; they're THAT close

it's not impossible for Bowser to be equal to Luigi if Luigi simply has more people who would vote for hi mover anybody else than Bowser; you dont need stats for that.

but if you want evidence of people completely bombing? do you take Tails = The Boss? Zelda being THAT far below Vincent after Twilight Princess? Axel equaling Frog?
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/1/2008 8:48:33 PM | message detail
I wouldn't bash on Bowser that much in his first round match of last year. Three-way LFF seems -much- worse than two way, for some reason. Consider this:

Distribute CATS' votes proportionately to Sephiroth, Peach, and Meta Knight...
Sephiroth - 62.20%
Peach - 17.30%
Meta Knight - 20.50%

Peach and MK don't even seem very much affected by LFF.

Yet next round...
Sephiroth - 57.11%
Wario - 9.97%
Fox - 19.74%
MK - 13.19%

Obviously the effect is huge now. Also, Vergil only dropped about 3.5% in Round 2 with Luigi, Ganondorf, and Mudkip (R1 he faced Ganondorf, Thrall, and Ratchet). Oh, and I was kinda joking about the GTA4 hero not being black... at least I hope that's not true.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
voltch | Posted 9/2/2008 7:09:24 AM | message detail
question,replace luigi last year with Bowser how do the results add up?
Would Bowser have fared better or worse VS Ganondorf/
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/2/2008 7:17:41 AM | message detail
I think for all the arguing we've done over who is Nintendo's top villain between Bowser/Ganondorf and seeing Zelda crash in this format, I think Bowser would have had a very good chance to match Luigi's first two matches...or even Ganon's, and Bowser's sprite isn't nearly as bad as Bacondorf. I would have taken Bowser to match Luigi, at least.

Alternatively, I don't think Luigi would have held up as well in Bowser's first round match, though they'd probably sync up in his second round.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
HaRRicH | Posted 9/2/2008 7:47:33 AM | message detail
...so who was the strongest snub this contest? I think Aeris, but I'm not too sure.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
swirIdude | Posted 9/2/2008 7:56:27 AM | message detail
Aeris sounds right. Everyone else relevant is in.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/2/2008 8:57:03 AM | message detail
Proto Man

I still can't believe he got snubbed again in favour of 5 more crappy fodderific loser Fails characters.
consolefreak | Posted 9/2/2008 9:08:01 AM | message detail
Yuna and Rikku are pretty big snubs as well.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/2/2008 9:13:42 AM | message detail
protoman aint such a huge snub. i wouldnt take him over donkey kong. let alone Yuna and Aeris.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
voltch | Posted 9/2/2008 9:37:35 AM | message detail
Seifer,what has the man got to do to enter one of these contests!Charizard too seems to be mia,but how does siegfried get in the contest when Killik doesn't?
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/2/2008 9:40:54 AM | message detail
how does mewtwo get in the contest and charizard doesnt?!?!?!?
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
H__RR____H | Posted 9/2/2008 9:47:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, Charizard was a missed opportunity. For kicks, what happens in this four-way:

Charizard
Lucario
Mewtwo
Pikachu
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voltch | Posted 9/2/2008 9:48:51 AM | message detail
also Jun or Jin from Tekken makes a contest before say rayman did and when the hell pawapuro going to enter,his game are finally hitting the US so he should be getting noticed.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
voltch | Posted 9/2/2008 9:50:33 AM | message detail
Pikachu>Charizard,Mewtwo gets cool factor LFF from Lucario.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/2/2008 2:00:23 PM | message detail
For anyone who may have missed it (and I'm looking at HM and Steve as I say this), remember that Guru signups aren't being held in this topic anymore, and can instead be found at

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45141057

As for biggest snubs, the largest in terms of B8 noms were

1. Charizard - 32 noms (7th most)
2. Angry Sun - 24 noms (11th most)
3. Dan Hibiki - 21 noms (17th most)
4. Brock - 20 noms (19th most)
4. Terry Bogard - 20 noms (19th most)

As for who I think the Contest will actually miss the most, I'd say something like

1. Charizard (of course)
2. Yuna (unfairly forgotten last year since MC overshadowed her)
3. Aeris (unfairly... okay, she was just bad, but still, could cause interesting situations)
4. Rikku (unfairly ruined by Vaan in that first match)
4. Ken/Chun Li (needed someone aside from Ryu to ride the potential SF4 hype boost)

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/2/2008 2:10:39 PM | message detail
I predict that Lucario flops this year and then Charizard makes the cut next year and just totally makes him look like ****.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/2/2008 2:33:59 PM | message detail
I would take Proto Man over Donkey Kong, especially with MM9 weeks away. I'd take PM over half the ****ing field, although that isn't saying much given the amount of useless fodder and even more useless Tales characters.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/2/2008 2:35:00 PM | message detail
why would you take Protoman over Donkey Kong? is he even playable in any notable MM game?

looking at Roll he cant possible be that far from the fodder line; i dont see why some unplayable MM character would beat the star of his own popular series.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Lopen | Posted 9/2/2008 2:41:46 PM | message detail
Comparing Protoman to Roll? Seriously?

"Hay guyz Peach is fodder Luigi couldn't possibly be much better"

I don't think Protoman would be that strong but the potential is certainly there. I'd probably take him over Donkey Kong too.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/2/2008 2:42:10 PM | message detail
I would have a damn hard time taking Protoman over Pac-Man.
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