GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 559
| Yesmar | Posted 8/31/2008 12:05:44 PM | message detail |
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Cecil's pic might have been badass, but I'm not sure it was all that recognizable. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| LegendaryRaiden | Posted 8/31/2008 12:07:16 PM | message detail |
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Alright Cecil-pants, then show me just exactly what pre-FF7 Final Fantasy pic was better! Well, excepting an ingame sprite I guess Cecil could not have gotten much better at the time. That being said: http://ui19.gamespot.com/1714/cecil_2.jpg That, being the picture he will likely get this year, is leagues ahead of Amano-bot. I suppose since this is a FF4DS picture you could consider any boost Cecil gets from this to be tied to FF4DS, but uhh, yeah. --- Did you say nerd? - Raiden Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/31/2008 12:08:55 PM | message detail |
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MarioSuperstar (#198) Liquid went from beating Alucard to losing to the guy by 6%. That's a sign of being more like, say, Duke Nukem than Pokemon or Street Fighter characters. |
| voltch | Posted 8/31/2008 12:13:44 PM | message detail |
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but wasn't liquid guilty of some shenanigans in his battle vs Alucard? a difference under 100 votes always seems somewhat dodgy. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2008 12:15:47 PM | message detail |
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there's still a possibility that he lost due to not sticking out rather than the competition. besides, even if he is that weak, he could still win it if the proportions are as big as Dante/Leon. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/31/2008 12:15:58 PM | message detail |
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voltch (#204) If you think so, then put it as "Liquid went from losing to Alucard", the point is that when going from Ness and Zidane to a pair of characters people actually give a damn about, Liquid's support fell off the face of the earth. >_> |
| voltch | Posted 8/31/2008 12:23:51 PM | message detail |
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but Ocelot pics are effectively useless for liquid,if he had a liquid
ocelot pic i'd put more faith in him,right now he doesn't have too much
recognisability going on,he's a blond snake,....oh damn if Zack-Cloud
difference is similar to liquid-Solid Zack will struggle to get out of
round 1. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2008 12:38:59 PM | message detail |
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oh, and let's not forget the possible Liquid boost. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 8/31/2008 12:40:56 PM | message detail |
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Exactly. Of course Cid will be stronger than Red XIII in general if
he beats him 60-40. He just won't be stronger in the suggested 60/40
ratio, like you said. I never said that would be the case....greater overlap just magnifies the effect of a character's ability to win the shared fanbase. Disproportionate is all overlap beyond the mathematical expected overlap from 2 independent actions. If 80% of the site knows Crono and 60% of the site knows Frog, then the expected value of people who know both is 0.8 * 0.6 = 48% of the site. Any overlap beyond this 48% is disproportionate, hence "SFF". In this case, we could expect that if 60% of the site knows Frog, probably like 59% knows both Frog and Crono, rather than the 48%. Their overlap is disproportionately large and if they went up against each other the result may look awkward. This overlap can't be measured, but common sense can point you in the right direction. And from this, you can see that Link doesn't have to SFF every character just because every one knows him. Fair enough; I actually like this definition of SFF a lot. In that case, we would expect about half the matches to display SFF to some degree, and in the other half, we would expect to find that a character's strength at winning shared fans is less important (again, to various degrees), and the match is governed more by the overall size of a character's fanbase. --- "Fate has no forgiveness for those who dare stand against it." ~Chrono Cross Game Over Screen |
| ZFS | Posted 8/31/2008 2:28:24 PM | message detail |
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FACT or FICTION: Zack will beat Cecil by 4+%. Fact. Cecil ain't getting close to Zack in this one. His range may vary with people, but it's a good bet that he's well above Cecil's ceiling. FACT or FICTION: Mewtwo will SFF Ness more than Mewtwo/Ness will SFF Pac-Man. uhh...Fact, I guess. Who knows with this. FACT or FICTION: Liquid Snake stands a reasonable chance to upset Bowser/Luigi. Fact. To reiterate a lot of points - Liquid's on the back of MGS4, Nintendo SFF is nasty, and Bowser hasn't exactly been a star at holding up against it, or doing all that well in general in recent years. Add Phoenix Wright and that Liquid is *very* unique in this match and there's plenty of reason to find it reasonable. It's an upset to be sure, but you can do a lot worse. FACT or FICTION: Mega Man X > Mega Man. Fiction. Despite there being some poll to the contrary, I can't see X being stronger than Mega Man proper. It wouldn't be surprise me if he were around there, simply by being a Mega Man proxy, but otherwise? Nah. FACT or FICTION: Link will SFF Shadow. Fiction. I could see this happening, and there is some reason for overlap, but I'd be hesitant to say Shadow will suffer more than usual because of Link. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| ChronicYouth | Posted 8/31/2008 2:31:28 PM | message detail |
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FACT or FICTION: Mega Man will be weaker this year due to Mega Man X's presence. --- can you dig it? |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 4:08:37 PM | message detail |
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See, I'm inclined to think FACT on that one, that's part of the reason I have Mega Man going out fairly early. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2008 4:21:36 PM | message detail |
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Going out...to whom? Zero? --- Mustache...and green... |
| MnMZero | Posted 8/31/2008 4:26:21 PM | message detail |
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Oh yes! --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2008 4:27:33 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, MM's path is pretty much locked. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 4:30:48 PM | message detail |
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Believe it, man. For two reasons, really. 1. Mega Man might be a bit weaker with MMX in the bracket... I think it'll happen. Not enough to beat Zero in normal circumstances, but. 2. Zero's fantastic performance against MM in 2004 along with just... well... knowledge, implies to me that he's more favored among the fanbase. While Mega Man's broad appeal is enough to keep Zero at bay usually, that "broad appeal" is more likely to be scooped up in higher proportion by Snake and Tidus/DK/Cube. Meaning Zero takes most of the MM hardcore vote, and MM doesn't have enough of the other vote to overcome him. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/31/2008 4:32:06 PM | message detail |
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This "Mega Man will be weaker because of X" theory reminds me of people
saying the last Zelda would get revenge votes in the Games contest. That is to say, they're both a load of crap. --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 4:34:10 PM | message detail |
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Not enough to be beat by Zero in normal circumstances, is what I meant to say. I don't think it'll be by much... but I'd probably take some of the near nobles like Squall and Auron above him because of that. Of course, some might argue that he's below them anyway at this point, which is possible. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/31/2008 4:36:30 PM | message detail |
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Is anyone running the Prophet Challenge this year? --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2008 4:41:21 PM | message detail |
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People aren't going to stop voting for MM simply because X is here.
Mega Man is too established a character in these contests for that.
They're just going to vote for both. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2008 4:44:39 PM | message detail |
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I agree. I personally think there is no reason for MMX to be in this
contest alongside Mega Man unless they were to go up against each
other. Otherwise, it's basically Mega Man getting in the contest twice.
--- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 4:54:26 PM | message detail |
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We'll see. I don't think it's going to be a big drop by any means...
the main reason I'm picking Zero is because of the format, not because
MMX is here. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 8/31/2008 4:59:15 PM | message detail |
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mnm summed it up nicely. Mega Man's existing fanbase probably doesn't care enough to favor one over the other. I don't see a large rift in the people who prefer X to classic regardless. Whatever differences in strength they may have won't be apparent until they meet in a match. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2008 5:10:34 PM | message detail |
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People aren't going to stop voting for MM simply because X is here.
Mega Man is too established a character in these contests for that.
They're just going to vote for both. We'll see. I don't think it's going to be a big drop by any means... the main reason I'm picking Zero is because of the format, not because MMX is here. Mega Man's existing fanbase probably doesn't care enough to favor one over the other. I don't see a large rift in the people who prefer X to classic regardless. Whatever differences in strength they may have won't be apparent until they meet in a match. All three. We didn't see any indication of a Mega Man fanbase split/rift in the series contest, so I'm inclined to wonder just why we'd see one now. No series exclusive to the ancient NES could have beaten Mario Kart so easily. Just as the original Mega Man NES was clearly seen as the "flagship" for that entire series, so is the original character seen as an embodiment of all his other incarnations. Mega Man X might be a teeny bit weaker or stronger because he clearly is a different character, but I don't expect that to affect the original MM. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2008 5:11:13 PM | message detail |
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RPGuy96 Posted 8/31/2008 1:06:19 PM message detail #169 That being said, y'know who's a lot weaker than Dante and Leon Kennedy? Pikachu. And that happens to be the most inexplicable result of the entire contest for me (how the hell is the worst LFF in the whole contest between Dante and Leon? Alternatively, was the rat held up by fellow RPG characters like Tidus and Vivi? That makes no sense either.). Not really something I would count on repeating. Actually, I think that was more a result of Pikachu being strong than anything else. I made these points when I was arguing for him last year, but I think that all the Pokemon "hate" died down when people grew up and instead of "yargh, i need indie cred by hating the rat!!!!!!!!!!!" it became "Hey, I remember Pokemon. That kicked ass". Remember that until last year, we hadn't seen a Pokemon since 2003 (barring G/S and the Series contests). Would I take PIkachu over Dante 1v1? No, but I have a feeling that Pikachu is a lot stronger than people are giving him credit for. And to agree with the sentiment that in order to capitalize on SFF, you need to have enough strength. SFF is enough to let someone of comparable strength or slightly lower to take out a stronger character. Say, Ryu beating Auron for example. I'd say heads up, Auron would 53/47 Ryu, but throw Cloud in there and suddenly Ryu has the advantage. You're not going to suddenly have chumps like Sub-Zero advancing in that situation because he's simply not strong enough to capitalize. And goddamn you Lopen for putting those nasty nasty thoughts in my head. Though I still doubt people will not vote for X because MM is in there. Shame we won't really have much of a comparison due to mass Nintendo SFF and Mega Man/Zero SFF |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2008 5:12:31 PM | message detail |
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i think you guys are just putting too much stock in the voters. these people dont really care about contest that much. they come, vote, and leave. if MM is weaker, it is only because MMX is stronger in a poll. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2008 5:15:41 PM | message detail |
| If that were true, then both would be the exact same strength since they wouldn't know/care enough to realize that they are 2 separate entrants |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2008 5:18:32 PM | message detail |
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If that were true, then both would be the exact same strength since
they wouldn't know/care enough to realize that they are 2 separate
entrants Not really. Most voters will realize that "X" actually is a different character, both by the name and the look. Imagine if he were called "Battle Network Mega Man" or something; it would be even more obvious. However, the current distinction isn't likely to influence the way many voters vote. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 5:18:47 PM | message detail |
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I don't think people will need to make an effort to care. They'll see
MMX in a match... and if any of those voters come back to vote later in
the round and see Mega Man, that'll make them think "oh, well MMX
fought earlier so..." It won't be much, but I'm not saying it will be. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 5:19:53 PM | message detail |
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And yes... Black Turtle... watch as I take your precious DARK HORSE to places even you won't tread this year...! --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| dethfdddddh | Posted 8/31/2008 5:20:23 PM | message detail |
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Isn't Zero the "Snake" of the MMX series while X is the "Raiden" of the series? --- Explicit Content left me uncontent in the guru contest. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2008 5:22:13 PM | message detail |
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They'll see MMX in a match... and if any of those voters come back
to vote later in the round and see Mega Man, that'll make them think
"oh, well MMX fought earlier so..." It won't be much, but I'm not
saying it will be. hm. didnt think about this possibility. i suppose this could happen to a couple hundred or something. but i see it a lot like the series contest: their strength will only be based on how good they are in an individual poll. i dont think the same thousands of people vote in the same polls. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 8/31/2008 5:52:47 PM | message detail |
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Again, the odds of X and Mega Man even meeting are very slim, so voter
preferences are moot points. It won't matter, as X was until now a
character synonymous with Mega Man. The fans that voted for Mega Man
originally won't care. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 5:54:45 PM | message detail |
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I'm sure some care, particularly the
bigger Mega Man fans. I, at least, would vote Mega Man over a lot of
things that I wouldn't vote MMX over. I'm sure some people who don't overthink contests like I do will think the same way or in reverse. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 8/31/2008 5:58:33 PM | message detail |
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The only SFF I think will ever transcend matches is between Ness and
Lucas, and that's mostly because people who like one tend to like the
other MUCH less. Meanwhile, Mega Man and X don't have a giant rift in their fanbase. They're liked by the fans for different reasons. X's presence could never hurt Mega Man, because they can always support both. Understand that. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| Big Bob | Posted 8/31/2008 6:12:39 PM | message detail |
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How the hell did Lucas make it in, anyway? I had no idea he was even popular with the Smash fanbase. |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 8/31/2008 6:17:10 PM | message detail |
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Combination of most obsessive fanbase and most annoying = guaranteed in. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2008 6:28:51 PM | message detail |
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Considering 28/35 characters made it in from smash I think the nominators had brawl in mind. Except for Peach. --- Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 6:36:33 PM | message detail |
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I'm not sure how you can say that about MM and MMX with so much
certainty. They're very different characters despite both being Mega
Man. I'm sure a small but not negligible portion of MM's core fanbase
would distinguish between the two. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2008 6:39:47 PM | message detail |
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Isn't Zero the "Snake" of the MMX series while X is the "Raiden" of the series? Not really. He still is the Mega Man of that series. Zero was just designed to be cooler than Mega Man so you are naturally drawn to him, a la Auron, Kratos Aurion, or any other badass sidekick. Similar to Proto Man in the original series, except that Zero was given much more of an emphasis of being badass in the X series. X was always liked. It wasn't until X4 that he showed his inner "Raiden", but still he was well liked. X7 is the game that gave off the "X is a pansy" aura. And even then, how many people have played X7? But in the most popular games of the series (the SNES ones), X kicked much ass. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2008 6:42:05 PM | message detail |
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I'm sure some care, particularly the bigger Mega Man fans. I, at
least, would vote Mega Man over a lot of things that I wouldn't vote
MMX over. I'm sure some people who don't overthink contests like I do
will think the same way or in reverse. But the same thing is apt to happen in reverse. MMX fans might not vote for the original MM now that he's a separate entity. And given how both series are almost equally popular, I don't think there will be that much a disparity between them. If anything, both MMX and MM would be a tad weaker than the MM of past contests. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| Lopen | Posted 8/31/2008 6:45:51 PM | message detail |
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If anything, both MMX and MM would be a tad weaker than the MM of past contests Sure, and that's exactly what I'm advocating, here. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Panthera | Posted 8/31/2008 6:51:43 PM | message detail |
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But the same thing is apt to happen in reverse. MMX fans might not
vote for the original MM now that he's a separate entity. And given how
both series are almost equally popular, I don't think there will be
that much a disparity between them. If anything, both MMX and MM would
be a tad weaker than the MM of past contests. I just can't see either one being hampered by the other's presence unless it's head to head; any weakness they show is likely to be brought on by the fact that both are primarily relics of many console generations ago and they weaken year to year. I would imagine that for every MM fan who wouldn't vote for MMX, there's someone who got into MMX but never touched the originals or didn't like them as much and so it would be reversed for them. Even though they're different characters, the two series are essentially the same. Mega Man X is basically Mega Man with bosses who are based more on animals than on people. The whole rock paper scissors weapons and weaknesses among bosses is the same, the overall style is the same (in both games, you jump, dash, slide and shoot at things, defeat all the bosses in an order you choose then go to the big bad villain's fortress and beat them)...I grew up playing those two series, and they're pretty much identical in my eyes. I think I would favor MMX if forced to choose, but unless they're head to head, the two are basically identical to me, and I imagine the bulk of voters will see it the same way. It would be like if Super Mario World came out and instead of Mario, you had to play as Luigi. Sure, different characters, but it would still be seen as just as much a successor to SMB3 as it did the way it DID come out. --- A season of our stolen youth shall teach old hearts to break ~Primordial-The Coffin Ships |
| ChronicYouth | Posted 8/31/2008 7:25:33 PM | message detail |
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I would imagine that for every MM fan who wouldn't vote for MMX,
there's someone who got into MMX but never touched the originals or
didn't like them as much and so it would be reversed for them. I don't think MM's presence will have any effect of MMX's intrinsic strength, since by labeling him "MMX" you're obviously narrowing it down to the character from MMX games only. On the other hand, since it has always thought that for the sake of the contest MM, and MMX were the same character, anyone who was a fan of MMX, but not necessarily the original MM, would vote for MM anyway. Now that it's evident that the two are being considered different entities, it only seems reasonable that MM is going to lose some votes that he otherwise would have gotten for being the MMX proxy. Anyone who joined late to the series, or is just weird and has an unnatural love for MMX over MM is going to abandon MM. I don't think it's going to be a huge percentage, but I think it will happen. Now how to gauge whether it happens or not, is of course impossible, thanks to one, the format, and two, that MM has been seemingly getting weaker on a yearly basis anyway. --- can you dig it? |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2008 8:09:13 PM | message detail |
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But really though, how many purists are there out there that love the
8-bit games, but hate the X series? Although maybe this is the
explanation for Mega Man/Zero in that both series have some distinction
between the two? I doubt it, but should make for an interesting result when we see Zero and MM square off again. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/31/2008 8:22:51 PM | message detail |
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FACT or FICTION: L-Block will in some shape or form break the majority of the brackets this year. and if you say fact.... Predict It: L-Block screws up majority of brackets via advancing or failing. --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2008 8:31:47 PM | message detail |
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Shame there's no BOP these days. I'm really curious as to what the
consensus on L-Block is, but we're a few weeks away from the Guru stats
being available... But, yeah, L is probably the character whose path is worth the most points, considering he could lose in the first round or win the entire contest. The only other late bracket characters with real potential are the Crono/Vincent winner (could sneak into the final due to Link/Samus/Mario LFF, if L gets knocked out) and whichever character in Sephiroth/Snake/MC/Sonic follows Cloud to the finals. I suppose Mudkip's got some potential, too, but he faces strong competition pretty quickly. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 8/31/2008 8:32:54 PM | message detail |
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I'm counting on L not even advancing, but no doubt he will break quite a few brackets. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| Yesmar | Posted 8/31/2008 9:17:29 PM | message detail |
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Possible "Nintendo Power Hour" explanation: I never really entirely bought the Nintendo Power Hour or the explanation that it was Board 8 at its core. However, if it does exist, Board 8 might not be the cause. In today's POTD, Grade School Student actually fell off after the first five minute update. Could it be that rather than an exaggeration of any "hardcore board vote" the early hours of each poll/contest match is an exaggeration of the casual vote, at least on a holiday such as today? --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2008 9:36:14 PM | message detail |
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How's the rest of the internet reacting to the contest? Is there any huge rally going for L-block or any other joke character? --- Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0 |
