GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 559
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2008 5:06:39 PM | message detail |
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The Dog Stats and Discussion - Part 76984 of 745637865785678236872168472164287 ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:10:24 PM | message detail |
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Or 2002 ended up being useless in terms of stats and the entire site demographic changed. dude, it's ****ing pac-man and scorpion. why would they bounce around like that? they're two easily recognizeable icons. Then look at Bowser/Ness and see what happens when he loses his Smash support. then look at Pac-man last year with Mario. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:11:44 PM | message detail |
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and even if you dont trust the stats in that year; the matches should give you SOME amount of suspicion. 24/25% on Link seems normal for Scorpion but 58% on Pac-Man is suddenly deemed '2002 glitch'? --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 8/28/2008 9:13:21 PM | message detail |
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Or 2002 ended up being useless in terms of stats and the entire site demographic changed. I can't believe you are actually trying to deny that 2002 was screwed up. 3 1 Seeds went down early, Cloud beat Mario, Megaman nearly beat Seph, Gordon was a 3 seed for crying out loud. Anyway, I got post 500, so, go me. --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/28/2008 9:14:48 PM | message detail |
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Wow, really solid poll today from Ulti. And, what's this... the Wii/360/PS3 generation is winning? In dominating fashion? Are people assuming they're going to have a broadband internet connection on this desert island to play Live Arcade/VC/online multi games or something? --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:15:42 PM | message detail |
| My problem wasn't with 2002 though, so much as it was comparing Ocelot (behind Yoshi/Pac and Mega Man/Yoshi) to 2003 Scorpion, and using 2004 Ness. But whatever, if you feel that Ness would kill Pac-Man in a match, go with it. To me, Ness is the perfect opponent as he is so niche and unrecognizable, especially with a more popular Smash character in the same poll. If Mewtwo can SFF Bowser, and Bowser can SFF Ness, why can't Mewtwo SFF Ness? |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:17:45 PM | message detail |
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Anyway, I got post 500, so, go me. After posting 3 times, getting modded and having no competition whatsoever? Go nothing. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:19:21 PM | message detail |
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3 1 Seeds went down early what's so strange about this? they're just seedings.. Cloud beat Mario a highly debated match that is irrelevant in the discussion. same thing for the sephiroth one. perhaps they were just that week? who knows; i only care about scorpion and his perfromance on link matched 2003. he's reliable. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:20:30 PM | message detail |
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If Mewtwo can SFF Bowser, and Bowser can SFF Ness, why can't Mewtwo SFF Ness? and why cant pac-man get the **** end of it? --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:23:45 PM | message detail |
| Pac Man is affected by iconic, easily recognizable characters. He's the "I don't know/like any of the other guys so I'll vote for him" dude. With no Mario/Luigi/Yoshi there, he should do fine. Look at how well he did on Ocelot. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:25:34 PM | message detail |
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so what makes Smash characters unrecognizeable? :\ --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 8/28/2008 9:25:39 PM | message detail |
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After posting 3 times, getting modded and having no competition whatsoever? Go nothing. I'm still happy, I finally got a 500, and if I had to get modded to do it, it was worth it. (Serioulsy, between my old account and this account, I have been here since the virtual beginning, and I NEVER had one, till now.) ANyway, obviously I meant Mario beat Cloud, not Cloud beat Mario. --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:26:29 PM | message detail |
| Not unrecognizable, just not universally recognizable like Mario |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:29:09 PM | message detail |
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you dont think a Pokemon is as recognizeable as a Mortal Kombat character? Ness i guess i can see but.. it doesnt take much to be recognizeable once you're in one of the site's most favorite video game series. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:36:28 PM | message detail |
| What does Mewtwo being more recognizable than Scorpion have to do with anything? He's still not universally recognizable like Mario/Luigi/Yoshi. Those guys are gaming icons. Mewtwo is just Pokemon #150. Besides, Scorpion is pretty damn recognizable. Mortal Kombat used to be really popular, though I'm sure you are too young to remember that. I'm sure if we had another poll asking who has played a Smash Bros game, we'd have at least 25% that have never played one of them. Have that same poll asking if they had played a Mario game and I guarentee that it is under 10% |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2008 9:37:36 PM | message detail |
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Why the hell is this generation winning? Augh younger voters? --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 9:41:45 PM | message detail |
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why wouldnt pokemon red be any less huge than mortal kombat? i'm dead serious. why is that even debatable? --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:48:57 PM | message detail |
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Why the hell is this generation winning? Augh younger voters? Same reason 30% of the site has never played Mega Man games |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:52:12 PM | message detail |
| No, which is why I'm not debating it. Mewtwo is more recognizable than Scorpion, but what does it matter? Is he universally liked like Mario is? Can he claim to be the most recognizable fictional character in the world? |
| transience | Posted 8/28/2008 10:05:01 PM | message detail |
| I'm thinkin' this poll sorta proves my point about
all those old Mega Man games not being worth much at all. this site has
a clear bias towards new things. next-gen gets extra points for having all that fancy virtual console/xbla stuff though. still, the PS2 gen is rocking the so-called glory years of the SNES that this topic likes to scream from the top of the hills about. --- xyzzy |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/28/2008 10:18:51 PM | message detail |
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If nothing else, today's poll certainly lends some fuel to the fire for next year's 16 entrant Best Console Ever contest. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/28/2008 10:19:38 PM | message detail |
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ugh --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2008 10:55:49 PM | message detail |
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--- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2008 11:13:49 PM | message detail |
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And, what's this... the Wii/360/PS3 generation is winning? In
dominating fashion? Are people assuming they're going to have a
broadband internet connection on this desert island to play Live
Arcade/VC/online multi games or something? Actually, I think today's poll is great evidence that a good number of voters actually think before they click that mouse. I dunno if they're considering online, but I do bet they're considering the impressive backward compatibility offered up by each of the three newest consoles. Whether or not they're over-thinking the poll is debatable, but they, they're thinkin'! --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/28/2008 11:22:12 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I don't know... it's kind of a trick question. The SNES and PS1 eras definitely have most of my favorite games by far,
but when it comes to being stuck on a deserted island... I chose the
current gen. I'd think after a while I'd get tired of beating my old
favs over and over again if I was stuck on an island with nothing to do
but play them. I don't think I'd ever get tired of GH though.
<_<; Plus XBLA games.... --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| LegendaryRaiden | Posted 8/29/2008 12:46:09 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, if anything today's results show that the voters think. No reason
to pick last generation at all, really. And uhhh... yeah, the SNES is
great and all but I'd rather have the power of 7 quality systems than
the SNES, personally. Heh. --- Did you say nerd? - Raiden Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell |
| LegendaryRaiden | Posted 8/29/2008 12:49:55 AM | message detail |
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And to chime in briefly on the Pac-Man/Ness debate: I'm taking Pac-Man. Yes, Pac gets SFFed by the Nintendo... but somehow I just don't think Mewtwo and Ness are going to get it done. I always chalk up Pac's SFF "Old School SFF" rather than being necessarily Nintendo related. Mewtwo and Ness are not exactly new characters, but I wouldn't exactly call them Old School either. Ness probably gets SFFed worse, methinks. And I don't know about you people but I'd take Scorpion to hit Ness with an Ulti-style blowout 1v1. Scorp had one year where he looked like he was in Ness's league. I doubt Ness would be a problem. --- Did you say nerd? - Raiden Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/29/2008 12:55:25 AM | message detail |
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Actually, I think today's poll is great evidence that a good number
of voters actually think before they click that mouse. I dunno if
they're considering online, but I do bet they're considering the
impressive backward compatibility offered up by each of the three
newest consoles The only problem is that they're thinking incorrectly. The poll asks if you could bring an entire generation's worth of games and consoles with you... you don't get to bring last gen's games that also happen to work on the current gen systems ;>_>... the backwards compatibility is totally meaningless in this. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| Calintares | Posted 8/29/2008 2:12:16 AM | message detail |
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I know it is pretty much a sin to mention tag teams, but I wonder what your take would be on the following tag team matches: Link/Crono v.s. Cloud/Mario Sephiroth/Mega Man v.s. Snake/Samus --- Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die. |
| voltch | Posted 8/29/2008 2:40:20 AM | message detail |
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ya know,I want Tanner in these contest vs jade curtiss vsMr driller vs Ms Pac-man. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| transience | Posted 8/29/2008 2:49:17 AM | message detail |
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oh --- xyzzy |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/29/2008 3:11:26 AM | message detail |
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... I would confidently take Ms. Pac-Man to win that. |
| voltch | Posted 8/29/2008 3:14:36 AM | message detail |
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as generic as tanner might be i think some people actually like driver 2 so he might have some form of day vote. if Ms Pac-man sounds too strong switch her with Haseo or nathan hale. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/29/2008 3:17:43 AM | message detail |
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The problem is that Ms. Pac-Man has Pac-Man in her name, so she'd do
well for the same reason Duke Nukem did well in his fourpack. ...Not that I'd take her over Haseo or anything, but she has (sorta) name recognition. |
| consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2008 3:25:07 AM | message detail |
| Concerning Pac-Man, I'm gonna have to go with Turtle on that one. Pac-Man got creamed by Mario because he's an even bigger icon, not because he's Nintendo. Mewtwo/Ness won't hurt Pac-Man much, if at all. |
| voltch | Posted 8/29/2008 3:27:12 AM | message detail |
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i figured pac-man was like frog,if you are close to his level,he wins. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 8/29/2008 3:29:20 AM | message detail |
| Tag. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/29/2008 4:38:09 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/29/2008 4:46:41 AM | message detail |
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wow. i just realized that 42% on Scorpion doesnt put you as bad fodder argh nevermind the icon sff stuff. regardless if Pac-man can get owned by basically every Mario character, why wouldnt a smash character do the same to a lesser extent? chances are if you know and like Mario, you would be a smash fan as well. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| BigB1475 | Posted 8/29/2008 5:02:26 AM | message detail |
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I got two inanimate objects winning the "character contest" --- Doing the orton pose over ur failed topic |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/29/2008 5:39:35 AM | message detail |
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I'm surprised that 32/64 isn't doing better since the site's two
favorite games are part of it (That's what I voted: Three of the best
FFs and lots of other good games, too). I'm not sure what to think of
this poll, but it basically confirms what the Games Contest showed us:
Division 128 had the highest average strength, though it didn't have
the single strongest game. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| Tohoya | Posted 8/29/2008 6:36:36 AM | message detail |
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People are choosing current-gen because its got much more breadth and
depth than any of the others. The oldies have a few classics that have
stood the test of time, but there are way, way more playable games on
current-gen systems. --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2008 7:00:24 AM | message detail |
| I wouldn't draw the conclusion that the newer
generations are stronger from this poll- the question is which system
would you have, not which system is your favorite. Nostalgia is thus
unimportant, and backwards compatibility is. Remember that in the
favorite Nintendo console polls, SNES once got 55% against every other
Nintendo console created, and a few years later was still in the high
40s. It's probably lower now, but SNES should still break 40% and
double #2 with no problems. --- "Fate has no forgiveness for those who dare stand against it." ~Chrono Cross Game Over Screen |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/29/2008 7:08:16 AM | message detail |
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I always chalk up Pac's SFF "Old School SFF" rather than being
necessarily Nintendo related. Mewtwo and Ness are not exactly new
characters, but I wouldn't exactly call them Old School either. Ness
probably gets SFFed worse, methinks. It's not "Old School SFF". People are more likely to vote for a character they recognize over one they don't. Which is why Pac-Man did so great against Ocelot. He gets all the "I don't know who Character B is, so I'll just vote for Pac-Man". Stick him against someone with universal recognizability like Mario, and suddenly he's almost losing to Wander. Nobody actually cares about or likes Pac-Man, so his strength varies on the recognizability of his opponent. Sonic/Tails would destroy him, whereas Kefka would probably lose. I would take Kefka over Tails 1 on 1 though. |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/29/2008 7:13:33 AM | message detail |
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Warning for those blocking BT -- I'm quoting him a LOT in the next two posts. the fact that you're using 2 different Scorpions and Ocelot from a completely different year makes me question your NessStats. The reason I used two different Scorpions was because I felt like 2k3 probably had his most legit value -- 2k2 is older and likely more screwed up because of it, 2k4 doesn't adjust for Auron/Sephiroth, and last year was a four-way contest. Therefore, I had Scorpion-2k3 face an adjusted Revolver-2k5 since the Villain Contest over-estimates him through Bowser and last year was a four-way contest. That's the best Scorpion/Revolver comparison you can make... ...and the reason I used Scorpion-2k4 at all was because he and Ness shared a common opponent against Auron; the Auron/Seph anomaly is negligible for this. The fact they were nearly identical is flattering to the point I was making about Ness having breathing room on Pac-Man in case Mewtwo takes a lot of his support. To me, Ness is the perfect opponent as he is so niche and unrecognizable Ness has been playable in every game of the biggest new series in the past ten years, barring maybe Metal Gear Solid (and that's only if you ignore the past Metal Gear games AND SSBB > MGS4 since the Series Contest). Earthbound is one of the most downloaded roms and most requested games for the Virtual Console. EB outranked an SFF'd Metroid who likely SFF'd Pac-Man, and EB easily outranked Pac-Man in the Top 100 List (#37 to #66) . Ness has a distinct look as well... ...it's fine to call him niche, but unrecognizable? Unfair. If Mewtwo can SFF Bowser, and Bowser can SFF Ness, why can't Mewtwo SFF Ness? Mewtwo didn't SFF Bowser as much as he held up against Bowser while Toad was in the poll. You couldn't say Bidoof SFF'd Link or Mudkip SFF'd both Luigi and Ganondorf, so it's not fair to say here either. Bowser did SFF Ness, but other characters could have done it a lot better -- Mario wrecked Ness even in comparison to what Bowser did. I suspect that's because Bowser couldn't break into Ness's SSB-support like Mario could... ...and if Bowser couldn't in 2k3 when the series was only beginning to REALLY pick up momentum here, I doubt Mewtwo would either. They were both among the worst in SSBM, and Mewtwo has it worse by being cut in SSBB and not sharing any games on the SNES like Bowser had...not to mention Mewtwo is weaker than Bowser, so SFF should naturally not be as bad. Pac Man is affected by iconic, easily recognizable characters. He's the "I don't know/like any of the other guys so I'll vote for him" dude. If Ness isn't recognizable enough, Mewtwo's there to finish the job. SSB and Pokemon are two of the most popular series here. With no Mario/Luigi/Yoshi there, he should do fine. Look at how well he did on Ocelot. Metroid did it to Pac-Man too, for the record. That's a record of 0-4 for Pac-Man preventing SFF against Nintendo. While Mewtwo isn't on their levels, Mewtwo is still very recognizable and rather strong. Ness is another Nintendo character fresh off of SSBB. Without a hint of Pac-Man being able to fend off any Nintendo characters respectably, why should he fend off two at once now? Granted, the points about being iconic or old-school don't apply as well here as Pac's past opponents, but Pac-Man's not shown he can take advantage of that against this caliber of competition. He lost to Kefka with his Lettuce pic and barely beat Revolver pre-MGS4 with another one-sided pic. Those aren't high standards of achievements, despite what popular opinion before those matches says. |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/29/2008 7:13:55 AM | message detail |
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He's still not universally recognizable like Mario/Luigi/Yoshi.
Those guys are gaming icons. Mewtwo is just Pokemon #150. Besides,
Scorpion is pretty damn recognizable. For "just" being Pokemon #150 and you still admitting Mewtwo's more recognizable than Scorpion, that speaks volumes...and you're the one saying it. I'm sure if we had another poll asking who has played a Smash Bros game, we'd have at least 25% that have never played one of them. Nine days after SSBB's release: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3060 The day before America's release of SSBB: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3050 In laste 2005: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2181 We don't even have numbers for SSB, but judging by those polls and the game's casual charm, I would think 80+% have played one of the SSB games before. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| NotTerrafire | Posted 8/29/2008 7:14:24 AM | message detail |
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110 people have picked first-generation consoles... masochists. "Have you played Atari today?" --- Oes pobl yma sy'n gallu siarad Cymraeg? Nac oes! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/29/2008 7:17:47 AM | message detail |
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Nobody actually cares about or likes Pac-Man, so his strength varies on the recognizability of his opponent. and with this logic i dont understand why you think Mewtwo and Ness WOULDNT kill him. why wouldnt characters from the same game as mario and HUGE on this site to boot NOT kill pac-man would-be voters? --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/29/2008 7:32:46 AM | message detail |
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About today's poll: I think this screams "What have you done for me
lately?" I also think we're under-estimating how high the quality of
our big-name games are. SSBB is absolutely massive, MGS4 is hijacking
the PS3, and the duo of GTA4 and MKW have made for the best-selling
week of video games ever...and those are just from the past five
months. I agree about the other points of libraries becoming more solid
and diversified, and online can only help...but I feel like those other
points come first. If people are counting last generation's games as games you can play in this generation, why is the last generation still firmly in second despite the Xbox and Gamecube's libraries not matching up to the Wii, N64, or 360? I'm not entirely sure why, but "What have you done for me lately?" feels like the best idea behind it standing up to the rest of the generations. Hmmm...just weird. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| Tohoya | Posted 8/29/2008 7:35:07 AM | message detail |
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If Pac-Man's votes mostly rely on "I don't recognize the other
character," then Pac-Man is screwed in this format where he has to have
people not recognize 3 other characters to matter. --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
