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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 558

KamikazePotato | Posted 8/27/2008 12:34:47 PM | message detail
I think it was the right idea to have a 4-way once more, though. We already have data from the last year that shouldn't go to waste, and next year's character battle will be really unpredictable since we haven't had a 1 on 1 since 2006.

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Calintares | Posted 8/27/2008 12:37:57 PM | message detail
Cloud/Zack 1v1.

would it be worse than Link/Gannon?
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Osfan | Posted 8/27/2008 12:38:41 PM | message detail
I thought that Vincent did great.

When you are up against Link, Mario and Seph, getting 10& is really good.

And there's no reason to not believe that Tifa is a powerhouse in this contest.


Ok but I understand the point here that this wasn't bad given the competition but lets be realistic for a minute. If we put Vincent in a match with Link, Mario, and Samus many people on this board and in this topic are calling for the head of Mario in that match and even have Vincent pulling off the upset, but if you throw Seph into the mix that makes 10% really good? Seph is above Samus by a great deal but the difference is not that much, Vincent lost a lot of votes to Seph in that match and there is no reason to believe Tifa is not going to suffer the same fate against Seph. Seph may not have the SFF advantage that say Cloud has but in this format he can take votes that might otherwise go to Vincent. I obviously don't think this will be a complete domination but having Seph and Tifa in the poll is gonna hurt Tifa more then enough to take her out of the running. Which leads me to the question of why she wasn't put into Division 7 where she could have had classic matches against Dante Leon and MC?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 12:38:43 PM | message detail
Not to cast aspersions on those that compiled the data, but I simply don't consider it reliable (even relative to the much-derided reliability of conventional stats). Between the endless fluctuations and the L-Block shaped wrench tossed into the whole kit-'n-kaboodle, I'm sticking with 2k6 stats for this one (even if they do have a similar Snake-sized wrench in the whole thing).

Of course that means it'll probably be as reliable as using 2k3 stats for the 2k5 contest... with a different format. And I still consider that more reliable don't judge me
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voltch | Posted 8/27/2008 12:38:49 PM | message detail
i had a horrible thought,a games contest in this format:

smb3
smw
sm64
smg

who goes through?
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/27/2008 12:39:20 PM | message detail
Hmmmmm.....

Nah I doubt Zack would be able to quadruble Cloud.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/27/2008 12:39:20 PM | message detail
Agreed. Even if this Contest ends up being kind of a dud (which I don't think is a sure thing), it at least serves to make 2009 all the more unpredictable.

Plus every day brings us one step close to BGE2, which is always more than enough to lift my spirits!

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 8/27/2008 12:39:36 PM | message detail
I think this 4-way is a good idea, provided that next year is one-on-one again. And that it's 64 entrants, 'cause there's far, far too much utter fodder this year.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 12:41:09 PM | message detail
i had a horrible thought,a games contest in this format

stop right there

no one repeat this again

if you guys give Bacon ideas there'll be hell to pay
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/27/2008 12:41:23 PM | message detail
I think this 4-way is a good idea, provided that next year is one-on-one again. And that it's 64 entrants, 'cause there's far, far too much utter fodder this year.

Basically his - although I don't mind the fodder. I like seeing the weaker characters get a chance, even if they're...well, weak.

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Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 8/27/2008 12:44:07 PM | message detail
I don't mind weaker characters, but I don't think they suit the 4-way format at all, especially in the divisions where there are three pieces of fodder and Cloud/Link/whoever.
Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2008 12:53:16 PM | message detail
I'd rather see mid-carders or high-end fodder go at it then rack my brain over which piece of uber-fodder sucks less.

And I was just looking at Seph/Mario/Link/Vincent a little while ago to see how it compares to the possible Samus/Mario/Link/Vincent match. Geez I forgot how badly Seph wrecked Vinny there. Tifa stands no chance at all, especially over a guy who keeps looking better every year.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 12:55:17 PM | message detail
I'm honestly semi-tempted to take Nana over Tifa to round 2 due to the Smash vote being nigh-monolithic at this point.

(seriously how many of you Nintendo fanatics AREN'T gonna vote for her I wonder)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/27/2008 12:56:07 PM | message detail
*will be voting for Ratchet*

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satai_delenn | Posted 8/27/2008 12:56:43 PM | message detail
smb3
smw
sm64
smg


waaaagh

At first glance I guess my guess would be SMW > SMG, because the old-school vote will split and then the more recent vote will split. Though now I'm doubting myself on whether SMW or SMB3 is more popular...can't remember, though I know there was at least one poll about it. Too lazy to look it up. >_>
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 12:57:38 PM | message detail
*will be voting for Ratchet*

the ninth circle of hell is reserved for traitors
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ZFS | Posted 8/27/2008 12:58:43 PM | message detail
I'm honestly semi-tempted to take Nana over Tifa to round 2 due to the Smash vote being nigh-monolithic at this point.

Whoa there

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Kept you waiting, huh?
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 8/27/2008 12:59:19 PM | message detail
Altair
Guybrush Threepwood
Isaac
Lucario

Feel the deserving secound round characters. One of them getting through wouldn't be great, but two? Bah, give me Servbot.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/27/2008 12:59:44 PM | message detail
(seriously how many of you Nintendo fanatics AREN'T gonna vote for her I wonder)


I'm voting for her, but it's not so much about her as it is about me disliking and/or not caring about the other entrants.
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For your health.
Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2008 12:59:47 PM | message detail
hey ice climbers are awesome and i always pick the alternate outfit that has you play as nana instead of popo

considering the other options are some ff characters and a furry nana easily gets the vote imho
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 1:00:22 PM | message detail
Whoa there

I know but I keep trying to write up percentages for the match that work in Tifa's favor and getting stymied
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/27/2008 1:03:31 PM | message detail
KH, writing up percentage values for a match is what convinced me to take Link>Zidane.

In other words, it's not very reliable. >_>

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ZFS | Posted 8/27/2008 1:06:01 PM | message detail
Let's see...

Sephiroth - 55% ; Tifa - 20% ; Nana - 15% ; Ratchet - 10%

hey nice that came out to 100% on the first try

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Kept you waiting, huh?
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 1:07:36 PM | message detail
You'll all regret this almost as much as you will next year's Fantastic Four-Way Games Contest
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/27/2008 1:08:27 PM | message detail
Sending a ticket to Bacon now

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Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2008 1:10:35 PM | message detail
go go HM!

and don't worry KH, Snake will get my vote in every round except one, so I consider myself redeemed in your eyes
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voltch | Posted 8/27/2008 1:32:18 PM | message detail
again i ask why people think vincent is improving but not the other VII characters.
well xcept Mr Z.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 1:34:51 PM | message detail
No one's argued that Vincent's been improving since he got DoC. Rather it's that Crono, Mega Man, and others are starting to fall off the map (not being relevant for THREE generations running will do that).
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voltch | Posted 8/27/2008 1:42:56 PM | message detail
man i hope Dissidia puts up monster hunter like sales...in america anything to slow the N juggernaught,when does that game come out anyway?
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2008 1:42:58 PM | message detail
Something to think about in Tifa vs. Nana

2007's Sephiroth vs Vincent SFF match - 23.83%
2006 Sephiroth vs 2006 Captain Falcon - 20.04%
Vincent > Tifa
Captain Falcon > Nana
Super Smash Bros. Brawl

Had the entry have been Ice Climbers instead of Nana would they have had a chance?
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Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2008 1:54:25 PM | message detail
Doubtful
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2008 1:58:21 PM | message detail
hmm.. i'd honestly consider ice climbers. that's a legit smash entity. if Tifa is SFF'd hard enough i'm sure the smash fanbase is large enough to actually win that.

it's basically nintendo fans who dont care about FF7 vs hardcore Tifa fans. sounds kinda easy to choose once you list it that way, doesnt it?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 2:01:08 PM | message detail
see see and *that* is why I currently have NANAFEAR
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Yesmar | Posted 8/27/2008 2:08:12 PM | message detail
One one hand, I see the point about suffering a lot from SFF due to not having hardcore fans (although I have doubts as to this), but keep in mind that she might actually hold up better than Vincent did. Vincent and Sephiroth had a much more obvious overlap in fanbase since they are both considered the mysterious badass of FFVII in a lot of ways. Tifa has none of that overlap.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/27/2008 2:11:45 PM | message detail
No ****in' way Nana wins.

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She may be your girl but that ass is mine!
XBOX Live Gamertag: TriggerTRE
charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2008 2:17:40 PM | message detail
I wonder what's the percentage of smash players that know the names of the Ice Climbers.

I don't see Nana winning right now, but if the other smash characters do really well in their matches the upset could happen.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 2:20:03 PM | message detail
It's not that they need to know Nana's name. It's that her picture will be instantly recognizable to anyone that's played Melee or Brawl, and 99.9% of the voters are going to go, "oh, that chick from the Ice Climbers". Whether that translates into votes is another thing entirely...
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Osfan | Posted 8/27/2008 2:26:27 PM | message detail
So basically we need to begin the rally for Nana having this as her contest image...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3184/2373478830_1e65de96b8.jpg?v=0

O_o
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Nominate Rydia for this years Character Battle!
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/27/2008 2:31:37 PM | message detail
If I knew she'd be listed as "Nana (Ice Climbers)", I'd have to seriously consider that upset. But it doesn't look like she will be, so Tifa ought to be safe.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
ZFS | Posted 8/27/2008 3:08:37 PM | message detail
this talk of NANA upsetting Tifa is no good

bold prediction: tifa is going to hold up *much* better on sephiroth sff than vincent get the hell outta here ice climbers

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Kept you waiting, huh?
ZFS | Posted 8/27/2008 3:09:34 PM | message detail
p.s. - who the hell cares about nana seriously

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Kept you waiting, huh?
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 3:14:46 PM | message detail
That's what I said about jokefodder and look what happened there!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2008 3:16:41 PM | message detail
Even if she does Worse than Vincent, an Ice Climber has no chance whatsoever. If you had put a midcarder there like Hayabusa or such, I'd take the upset.
trannyscience | Posted 8/27/2008 3:19:05 PM | message detail
Nana probably won't be all that much worse than Captain friggin' Falcon

Tifa will almost definitely win but when you consider the SFF + the Nintendo early vote + the hideous FF7 early vote, this could be an opening for the ages

(doof doof doof what's up Vincent)
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 8/27/2008 3:23:56 PM | message detail
I expect the opening hour or so to be pretty bad, but Tifa should manage to get control of the match fairly quickly, and from then on it shouldn't be one that's in question. Seriously it's an Ice Climber argh

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/27/2008 3:25:26 PM | message detail
if people will vote for Pit, a guy in a trailer, I see no reason why they wouldn't vote for an Ice Climber

it's not like an Ice Climber is somehow offensive, most people think they're cute/fun to play as I'd imagine

hopefully the bandwagon picks up when Tifa's getting rocked by 500 votes in a few minutes
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2008 3:25:43 PM | message detail
i guess that match really depends on how well sandbag does?

but then again... sandbag could >>>>> nana.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 3:25:44 PM | message detail
Finally an exclamation to replace Master Hand has arrived
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/27/2008 3:26:12 PM | message detail
If it was Sephiroth/Tifa/Ryu Hayabusa/Nana I'd take Ryu pulling off the upset before Nana.

Nana has no chance.

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She may be your girl but that ass is mine!
XBOX Live Gamertag: TriggerTRE
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2008 3:26:41 PM | message detail
I would take Sandbag if it was in Nana's place in a heartbeat. It doesn't even have to be stronger than her straight up (though I wouldn't doubt it).
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