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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 558

nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/28/2008 1:51:52 PM | message detail
Fact/Fiction Replace Sora with any other non-Square character in Sora/Squall/Sonic/Subby and Squall comes in first

Is this the bit where I say lol Link? Or lol Mario/Samus/Snake?
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ZFS | Posted 8/28/2008 2:55:19 PM | message detail
argh that discussion a couple of pages back

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Kept you waiting, huh?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2008 2:56:13 PM | message detail
Should I be glad I've missed most of this topic?
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trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 3:03:10 PM | message detail
depends how much you like black cloud vs. black sonic
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xyzzy
_Yonex_ | Posted 8/28/2008 3:26:56 PM | message detail
I wish there was a black Samus.
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Guybrush, just make it past the first round for once! PLEEEEEEEEEEASE!
ChronicYouth | Posted 8/28/2008 3:53:22 PM | message detail
black haired cloud? more like blonde haired zack
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can you dig it?
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/28/2008 3:54:54 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 3:56:33 PM | message detail
Dark Samus for 2009?

We can get Dark Link as well.
transience | Posted 8/28/2008 4:29:04 PM | message detail
you know, I bet Pokemon could get 80% easily in this poll. I wonder what Metroid would get... 65% playership?

man, I wonder if Pokemon could have beaten Mega Man in the series contest. I bet it could have gone head to head with Resident Evil.
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 4:31:58 PM | message detail
are you sure?

Oblivion = Star Ocean? hmmm....
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2008 4:41:15 PM | message detail
Going a little too far on that front. Metroid hasn't ever shown an indication of being a powerhouse series outside of Samus (who has a bevy of reasons why she's stronger than her series). Maybe Pokemon could beat RE *now* (it'd be close at best), or had a chance against RE's awful sprites, but we need to remember nothing from Pokemon has even accomplished anything in a 1v1 setting thus far.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2008 4:42:38 PM | message detail
I also think RE goes 55-45 against SF with a fair picture for the record... which strikes me as about the right proportion for a win over the Pokes too.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 5:01:23 PM | message detail
Mega Man's never had any indication of being strong outside of, well, Mega Man either. I can't think of any year where Mega Man has looked stronger than Samus outside of 2002, which is just a weird year. I know what you mean - Smash Bros for Samus - but Metroid itself has never had a chance to shine outside of maybe that Wind Waker match. put Mega Man in Metroid's positions and it'd look like crap too.

as for Pokemon, yeah I meant now, not 2006. but Pokemon is so weird.
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xyzzy
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2008 5:05:00 PM | message detail
So who else thinks Kratos has pretty big breakout potential this contest?
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2008 5:07:56 PM | message detail
Also, NO WAY Oblivion and Star Ocean are on par with another strength wise. I'd say Oblivion is at least good 5% or 7% up on Star Ocean
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/28/2008 5:08:26 PM | message detail
Kratos A or Kratos?

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2008 5:09:30 PM | message detail
Kratos from God of War, of course.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/28/2008 5:10:39 PM | message detail
I have Kratos making it to the Div Finals...

But over Sonic and Seph? No way, sorry

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2008 5:10:55 PM | message detail
Mega Man annihilated Mario Kart though, a series I would've been EXTREMELY wary of in a match against a series like Metroid or Pokemon. I had very little doubt in MM winning there either, so it's not like I'm artificially raising my expectations after the fact.

It's not like I'm trying to shortchange Metroid/Pokemon either. I'd have fits about them being paired up against Street Fighter. But I consider MM and RE a bridge too far out of reach.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 5:12:46 PM | message detail
Kratos A is only relevent to discussions about fodder crap that should be banned from contests on basis of extreme weakness.

And I would personally take anything Mega Man over anything Metroid aside from the main characters themselves.

Mega Man 2 > Metroid Prime, Mega Man X > Super Metroid and Mega Man Zero > Metroid Fusion.

Also, don't forget that Zero has had decent strength over the years too.
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/28/2008 5:13:31 PM | message detail
You don't have Alucard > Kratos?

lmao

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 5:13:50 PM | message detail
And it's hard for Kratos to have a breakout year. He's basically guaranteed to make it to the third round and that's it. He'll probably finish ahead of Auron, but that's about it.
trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 5:21:12 PM | message detail
how do you know Metroid wouldn't have crushed Mario Kart?

who knows there.
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xyzzy
Haste_2 | Posted 8/28/2008 5:24:47 PM | message detail
Today's PotD is amazing! It's great for a pointless poll. I'm glad most people don't just run through the gate. =P

Sonic being stronger than last year is a possibility. I'm expecting a slight increase, enough to to keep himself secure above Mega Man, Crono, and any non-NNer. I hope Auron can outscore Sonic in R2, though, because he's that great.

Let's examine Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox again, shall we? Squall getting first is obvious, but what about second? At first I took Sora, but seeing how badly Squall owned Sora last year, I'm starting to side with Yoshi. This is despite the presumption Yoshi will get hurt by fanbase leeching more. Here's some interesting (and analogous) data:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2918&num=4
Sora beats Sub-Zero 20% to 17% (with Squall in the poll).

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2911&num=4
Yoshi beats Scorpion 19% to 17% (with Samus in the poll).

Looking at it that way, Sora's now looking like the favorite to me, as I'd expect Sub-Zero to be slightly stronger than Scorpion. I am not confident in the least bit, though. Anything could happen. Also, if any character has gotten more of an advantage over the other in the past year, I'd certainly side with Yoshi.

As for Mega Man/Tidus/Donkey Kong/Nero... do you think Nero might nab second? I really don't know how to gauge Nero. He's in only one DMC game and it's on the PS3 (ouch), but he still looks a lot like Dante. I'm kind of expecting DK to be killed by Mega Man (SFF) and I don't have much faith in Tidus.

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ChronicYouth | Posted 8/28/2008 5:24:50 PM | message detail
...are people really taking Tifa > Kratos? Did you guys not watch the contest last year? I mean it would be one thing taking her last year (still dumb imo), but this year it's pretty inexcusable. Seph doesn't even need to SFF her for Kratos to move on, all that has to go on is some LFF. Even if Seph/Tifa finish with an equivalent distribution of votes, or better put, ratio of what xstats would predict a 1v1 match-up between the two, the shared fanbase resulting in a lower % for both of them would be plenty for Kratos to slip on by. Now take into account that it's all but a verifiable fact that Seph is going to SFF her at least a tad, and well, get with it.

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can you dig it?
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2008 5:31:05 PM | message detail
how do you know Metroid wouldn't have crushed Mario Kart?

Much like most of the Series Contest, it's based on mostly uninformed speculation. That being said, Metroid crushing Mario Kart - let alone on the scale that MM did - seems *really* unlikely in my eyes.

Furthermore, it's not like we only have contest matches to pull from here in estimating Metroid's strength. Do you expect Echoes to have any strength of note? Corruption? Any handheld Metroid? I know we talk about Mega Man having no standout games to draw from, but the truth is he's got more games of significant strength than Metroid in all likelihood. In the end Metroid has the original Metroid (name recognition, same as original MM), Super Metroid (the only true wildcard), and Metroid Prime (45% on Wind Waker).

Thing is, I can't even take MP's position seriously thanks to Starcraft. I think - and have ALWAYS thought - that putting Wind Waker on the level of Final Fantasy X goes beyond the level of ludicrous. It smacks of impossibility.

Speculation? Sure, but my confidence level is high enough to proclaim it from the rafters, and eat my words if need be. And hopefully I'll have the chance to do so one way or the other by next year?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 8/28/2008 5:32:03 PM | message detail
DMC4 is on 360 and PC as well.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2008 5:35:37 PM | message detail
Nero. He's in only one DMC game and it's on the PS3 (ouch)

Hey the 360 DMC4 isn't exactly chopped liver here!

Nero's got a decent enough upset prospect, the problem is that like Snake and Raiden in MGS2, DMC4 just makes Dante look better than ever while Nero comes off as the whiny fringe sort of character (despite him hanging with Dante and having only slightly less cool action scenes).
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trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 5:36:13 PM | message detail
Furthermore, it's not like we only have contest matches to pull from here in estimating Metroid's strength. Do you expect Echoes to have any strength of note? Corruption? Any handheld Metroid?

haha, this is hilarious! let me turn it on you -- do you expect... hold on, gotta hit up the search. would you take Mega Man ZX over Metroid Fusion or Zero Mission? would you take any of those Gamecube/GBA games - ports/remakes excluded - over Echoes or Corruption? would you take Mega Man 4-6 over Metroid 1?

basically, here's Mega Man's games of note: 2, 3, X. maybe some of the other X's, I don't even know. but I'd take Super Metroid over X, Prime over 2/3, ZM/Fusion/Prime 2/Prime 3 over second-rate Mega Man titles. Mega Man's strength is having "so many games I don't even remember making them" -- I don't know who I'd pick but I'd never use a term like "very confident".
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2008 5:46:02 PM | message detail
haha, this is hilarious! let me turn it on you -- do you expect... hold on, gotta hit up the search. would you take Mega Man ZX over Metroid Fusion or Zero Mission?

Metroid II, Fusion, ZM. These are not the handheld games of *note* for Metroid. These are ALL the handheld games the series has, pinball games notwithstanding. Add in your console games and you're talking about a series that has SEVEN games total, and only THREE having significant strength potential. Mega Man doesn't have much better in the latter regard, but he's got, as you said, so many games it's impossible to keep track.

The comparison that you used for the original Metroid was disingenuous - using the original Mega Man is a much better parallel, and one I'd be *very* confident in MM winning. Mega Man X vs Super Metroid is a match I don't want to pull the trigger on, but I'll defer and put SM ahead. And I ain't buying that Prime is going to count more than MM2 and MM3 - heck, I couldn't say that about the entire Prime series. And then you factor in everything else.

Confident? Absolutely - supremely so. Call it arrogance or underestimation if you will, but it's just calling it straight from this end.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 5:51:22 PM | message detail
man who likes MM1

I mean who likes Metroid 1 too but still, MM4-6 crushes 1! (I'd pick Metroid 1 over MM1, by the way.)

but seriously, I think MM and Metroid are both somewhat niche series here, not things our entire population know intimately like they do Mario or Smash or Final Fantasy. when that happens, I think people vote based on other factors - characters, pictures, etc, and Metroid wins here I think. I still don't know how Metroid doubled Pac-Man.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 5:52:46 PM | message detail
and either way, I'm not gonna argue NES games because I don't think that really matters to most of our population. Mega Man's last game of significance was.. when? Metroid's had Prime, Fusion, ZM, Prime 2, Prime 3 in the last six years. I can point to countless GOTY polls. with MM, I can't even point to a single one.
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 6:12:29 PM | message detail
I still don't know how Metroid doubled Pac-Man.

uh...

SS-- *shot*.;
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 6:21:02 PM | message detail
Seph doesn't even need to SFF her for Kratos to move on, all that has to go on is some LFF.

SFF is "LFF". I don't know why people make the distinction.

And I would take any classic Mega Man over Metroid 1 or 2, I would take X 2 and 3 over Super Metroid, and I would take any Zero games over any handheld Metroids.

I think MM2 would have a good fight with Prime/2/3 if not outright winning. X might have a shot as well.

Samus is strong because of her design, and Smash.

If Mega Man was in Brawl, I'd take him over Samus easily.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 6:22:28 PM | message detail
And once again, aside from the Primes, I'd take the Zero series over any handheld Metroids. The only GOTY worthy Metroid game in the last 6 years was Prime 1.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2008 7:00:23 PM | message detail
I definitely think Ness gets most of his "strength" from SSB. He'll be sharing that [with Mewtwo].

I can't disagree...but Ness was a fan-favorite in SSB, a starter in SSBM, and returned to SSBB. Mewtwo was disappointing in SSBM.

I think Ness can protect a LOT of his SSB-votes from Mewtwo, and -- though Pokemon is Nintendo's main RPG-series -- EB-fans will be relentless for Ness too. Heck, afew weeks ago we saw EB stand up to CT in the unusual SNES-VC-poll. So I don't think Mewtwo will bother Ness TOO much...and Ness has a lot of leeway on Pac-Man if you go by Scorpion/Pac-Man in 2k2 and comparing Scorpion to Ness against Auron in 2k4. Throw in BRAWLFEAR and the theory of Pac-Man bombing against Nintendo (Luigi, Yoshi, Mario, Metroid...maybe more I forgot?), and I'm comfortable with Ness at this point.


Pac-Man sure did look good at the first glance at this bracket though...!
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 7:04:39 PM | message detail
All 30 Earthbound fans.

This is the first time we'll be seeing Pac-Man not against a gaming icon since Pac/Ocelot, which ended very well for the yellow dude. Ness coming second isn't out of the question, but this one seems obvious to me, and Pac-Man hasn't let me down yet.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2008 7:14:00 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3197

16,769 Earthbound fans.


Also, you said Pac-Man did really well to beat Revolver...well, that's fine:

Revolver Ocelot (2005c) has a strength of 21.72 against Base Link.
Scorpion (2003c) has a strength of 24.74 against Base Link.

Revolver Ocelot 43.90% 45,203
Scorpion 56.10% 57,773
TOTAL VOTES 102,976
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Ness (2004c) has a strength of 20.53 against Base Link.
Scorpion (2004c) has a strength of 20.65 against Base Link.

Ness 49.71% 42,878
Scorpion 50.29% 43,380
TOTAL VOTES 86,258


Don't forget the controversy about how one-sided Pac-Man's pic was against Revolver's and that Revolver is likely less known than Ness so he can't take such advantage of Ness. If Pac-Man steals second, it's because Mewtwo SFF'd Ness harder than either of them could hurt Pac-Man. Pac's just lucky Travis Touchdown isn't known by a lot of people, or else he'd be in even deeper trouble.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 7:17:00 PM | message detail
I'd peg Pac and Ness to have a good match 1 on 1, with Mewtwo in the picture, it's no contest to me.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 7:23:07 PM | message detail
you're foolish if you think pac-man isnt going to be hurt by mewtwo AND ness. the guy got SFF'd by freaking Scorpion.

he'll lose to any widely known character period.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2008 7:27:09 PM | message detail
Well I hate to make an ass out of you and me, Turtz...but if Ness = Scorpion pre-Brawl (and Nintendo Boost), Scorpion's been able to firmly beat Pac-Man every year they shared a contest, and Nintendo characters at least have the advantage if not the ability to SFF Pac-Man, I'd assume you're too anxious to defend an upset by saying Ness/Pac would be a good match head-to-head.

It's not a bad upset, but that's bad logic to roll with.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2008 7:30:03 PM | message detail
SFF'd by Scorpion? I prefer to think Scorpion cleanly beat him, but even if it was SFF then Mewtwo is too well-known and Ness is quite familiar with a lot of people too.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2008 7:31:33 PM | message detail
haha, you know you're overanalyzing when you're talkin' Pac-Man/Scorpion SFF
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xyzzy
ChronicYouth | Posted 8/28/2008 7:33:04 PM | message detail
Pac definitely has a legitimate chance in the match... but I'd feel terrible taking him to move on. I've had Mewtwo > Ness since day 1, and while I know it's not a stone cold lock, I haven't really thought twice about it. We've seen how Ninty SFF affects the Pac (not that Ness is awesome with it or anything, but I don't think quite as bad), but the format really sells me on it. Who the hell's favorite character is Pac-Man? He's capable of taking down people in 1v1 matches because on the other hand, who the hell hates him? He's pretty much anti-vote proof in my mind. He can only benefit from people hating the other guy, not knowing who he is (because who the hell doesn't know Pac?), and then just the people who do have a special place in their heart for him. You have to ask yourself in this situation, are people really going to vote Pac-Man as their favorite character when there are three other options to choose from? Well of course some will... but I seriously doubt that number will be anything all that significant.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2008 7:36:54 PM | message detail
haha, you know you're overanalyzing when you're talkin' Pac-Man/Scorpion SFF

the reason it makes sense to me is simply because of the next following year. Scorpion wasnt equal to Knuckles and Pac-Man wasnt fodder.

Scorpion is also an 'icon'. Pac-man is a character you vote for when you dont know the other character. it certainly isnt far-fetched.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
smitelf | Posted 8/28/2008 8:00:53 PM | message detail
In that case Pac-Man would only do well against obscure characters, in which case he is still legitimately weak.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2008 9:04:16 PM | message detail
Or 2002 ended up being useless in terms of stats and the entire site demographic changed.

I would take Scorps over Ness handily, and the fact that you're using 2 different Scorpions and Ocelot from a completely different year makes me question your NessStats. 2004 was the year for niche characters. It's no surprise Ness did well against Auron when votals were that low. Add to that the fact that Pac/Ocelot was behind Mega Man/Yoshi weirdness (which even after adjustments I feel resulted in an underrated Yoshi) and you suddenly have a Ness/Pac-Man that seem close to eachother.

Then look at Bowser/Ness and see what happens when he loses his Smash support.

I feel very confident in Mewtwo > Pac
MichaelWClark | Posted 8/28/2008 9:05:27 PM | message detail
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MichaelWClark | Posted 8/28/2008 9:06:33 PM | message detail
Zack FTW
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
MichaelWClark | Posted 8/28/2008 9:06:42 PM | message detail
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