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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 558

trannyscience | Posted 8/25/2008 5:57:39 PM | message detail
Zack Fair Stats and Discussion - Part 48957 of 745637865785678236872168472164287


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 8/25/2008 5:59:51 PM | message detail
i'm going to make a list of people who say zack in here

you don't want to be on this list

i warn you

now continue your regularly scheduled zack discussions
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
ZFS | Posted 8/25/2008 6:00:31 PM | message detail
http://www.square-enix.co.jp/ccff7/download/wp_zack_l.jpg

who wants sum

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/25/2008 6:02:10 PM | message detail
http://ui29.gamefaqs.com/1212/gfs_60427_2_9.jpg
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 8/25/2008 6:03:55 PM | message detail
dammit

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Kept you waiting, huh?
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/25/2008 6:04:45 PM | message detail
Zack Fairy









That's the joke

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
meisnewbie | Posted 8/25/2008 6:05:57 PM | message detail
where the hell are you HM why don't you come back here and give me a sig that implies I like little boys and girls huh.

(Only with sweet and sour sauce imo)
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Eh? You Serious? Easy Mode? How Disgusting!
Only Elementary School Kids should play on Easy Mode.
Gaddswell | Posted 8/25/2008 8:45:25 PM | message detail
Bah, it reached 500 while I was typing.

Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko
Marth > Kefka

All I'm sure of here is that Marth takes 1st.

Luigi/Liquid Snake/Bowser/Phoenix
Bowser > Luigi

Bowser / Luigi happened before and that had Bowser coming out on top. I'll be rooting for Weege though.

Frog/Ganondorf/KOS-MOS/Neku
Ganondorf > Frog

If it's close, Frog rallies.

L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog
Ryu > Meta Knight

Here's hoping... >_>

Donkey Kong/Tails/Tidus/Weighted Companion Cube
Tidus > DK

I want to take DK > Tidus, but Tails affects DK more than Tidus.
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Nominate Pikachu for the character battle!
ZFS | Posted 8/25/2008 8:45:27 PM | message detail
starting off good this year with the 500 posts

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Kept you waiting, huh?
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/25/2008 8:46:45 PM | message detail
We've debated Zack to death.

We've debated Zidane to death

But have we debated Zack vs. Zidane to death? I think not!


Seriously, if Zidane upsets Shadow...what's to stop Zack form bombing?

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
ZFS | Posted 8/25/2008 8:48:50 PM | message detail
http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/games/psp/crisis_core_ffvii/small/crisis_core_ffvii_029.jpg

http://bishounen.info/zidane/zidane1.jpg

tough one !

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Kept you waiting, huh?
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/25/2008 8:49:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, I know. Zack really needs to step up and prove himself.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
NewLib | Posted 8/25/2008 8:58:57 PM | message detail
Woo Contest...

So I just arrived and only was able to see the last topic so I dont know if this was discussed, any chance X beats Mario with Bowser/Luigi also in the bracket?
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--NL--
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/25/2008 9:00:23 PM | message detail
Prince Marth > Kefka
This is the weirdest half division in the whole contest. I have Marth > Kefka, then Kefka > Marth because of the SSB split with Lucario, then Link > Kefka because Link will absolutely murder Marth (boo) and hurt Shadow. Then you've got Link/Mario/X/Kefka. And, of course, Kefka could lose in the first round.

Luigi > Bowser
Liquid's not strong enough to take advantage of the Nintendo split (he got whipped by Yuna who couldn't slip past Ganondorf/Luigi). Bowser's weaker than Ganondorf, which should allow Luigi to sneak by even though Bowser still probably wins 1 on 1.

Ganondorf > Frog
Yeah, CT's going nowhere fast, but so's Xenosaga. KOS didn't look to impressive last year, almost allowing LFF'd Diablo/Arthas to slip past her.

Ryu > L-Block
I considered taking Meta-Knight and I might switch back to him. He really impressed me last year by beating Peach and Wario easily and dispatching a joke character in CATS, with the afterschool vote no less. L's going to need a big lead to survive the day; the question is how strong he'll be in his first match. And Meta's got BRAWLFEAR going for him this time around, rather than just BRAWLANTICIPATION.

...I just switched to Ryu > Meta-Knight.

DK > Tidus
Not sure about this one, but Tidus has looked awful recently. I don't think DK loses to the rat. I have Tidus making the next round, though, thanks to Olimar and Mega Man knocking DK around.
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Mustache...and green...
NewLib | Posted 8/25/2008 9:01:26 PM | message detail
Actually forget it. I forgot the Nintendo/Mega Man fanbase is fairly interlinked.
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--NL--
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/25/2008 9:01:45 PM | message detail
Nah, X has a good shot in that match.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/25/2008 9:16:52 PM | message detail
X should have a bit more Sony affiliation than MM, though MMX's biggest games were still on the SNES.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
Brawl FC: 4253-3155-6697
Kaxon | Posted 8/25/2008 9:23:54 PM | message detail
There was Zack discussion in the previous topic? I better go read that. I need to catch up so I know how to predict my bracket!
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/25/2008 9:40:23 PM | message detail
Zero completely jobbing to Link, Mario and Luigi make me think otherwise. X beating Mario will completely rely on how strong he is. If he is Mega Man 2.0, he has a great shot. Anything less and he gets a close second.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/25/2008 9:43:37 PM | message detail
And if Zidane somehow upsets Shadow, I'll eat my shell. Assuming hell freezes over, I would still take he-who-must-not-be-named head to head. I've said before that i strongly feel he's a midcarder at worst, which is more than enough to deal with Mr. "I'm from a crappy game" Zidane.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/25/2008 9:44:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, I have very little faith in Zidane... I think this came up in another topic, but uh... I'd definitely consider taking Cecil over Zidane at this point... so I'd have no problem taking Zloud over him.
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For your health.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/25/2008 9:50:18 PM | message detail
Cecil over Zidane? There is no way in hell Cecil would have done as good as Zidane in the Ness/Liquid/Alucard match.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Just like Explicit Content is better than me for winning the Guru contest.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/25/2008 9:51:02 PM | message detail
but DS remake!

DS remake!
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For your health.
whatev | Posted 8/25/2008 10:01:31 PM | message detail
To get away from the discussion a bit, does anyone know where I could find stat topic #3? It's not on NGamer's site.

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The world is toroidal.
Exposed armpits are sexy.
transience | Posted 8/25/2008 10:03:44 PM | message detail
Zidane's stronger than Terra, most likely, so Cecil doesn't really have a chance.
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xyzzy
ffmasterjose | Posted 8/25/2008 10:06:24 PM | message detail
I briefly considered having Kefka advance with Link in the D1 finals, but I don't trust him to get out of his fourpack. His day vote is just so...poor. Plus there's nothing that has really renewed interest in himself from last year, so I don't see him being any stronger than last year. And going by his strength last year...yikes, I don't know...

how many times can I say "last year" in one paragraph? Yesh.

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0/0 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Wario > Zack Fair
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/25/2008 10:09:18 PM | message detail
Cecil's match was in 2005, before both the GBA and DS ports. I think it's safe to say he's at least as strong as Terra, and probably stronger considering the recency of FF4DS. Thankfully, we don't have to worry about Cecil/Zidane because neither of them has a shot at the second round.
ZFS | Posted 8/25/2008 10:11:34 PM | message detail
Zidane over Cecil is easy enough.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/25/2008 10:12:17 PM | message detail
And it's a damn shame.
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Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/25/2008 10:35:43 PM | message detail
For those who missed it last topic, I came up with what I feel will be Zack's match pics for this year, and they can be found here for anyone who wants to take that into consideration:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Zack_Fair

No Stats Topic #3, you say? Well now, I guess so. Never fear, TRE will arrive soon to explain what happened there!

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
transience | Posted 8/25/2008 10:36:10 PM | message detail
sounds like the offtopic bug
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xyzzy
Panthera | Posted 8/25/2008 10:47:02 PM | message detail
So I just arrived and only was able to see the last topic so I dont know if this was discussed, any chance X beats Mario with Bowser/Luigi also in the bracket?

I have Mario>MMX right now, but I'm not at all sold on it. I'm definitely banking on MMX coming in second over Mario with Link involved in the round after though. I just don't know if I really should be giving him enough credit to overcome Mario when it's only Boswer/Luigi stealing his votes instead of the big L.
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A season of our stolen youth shall teach old hearts to break
~Primordial-The Coffin Ships
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/25/2008 10:59:44 PM | message detail
Oh cool, today's poll is a great chance to see if FF has lost some of its punch on this site in recent years. After this result goes final we'll have to compare it against

How many of the standard Final Fantasy RPG games have you played? (March 2006)
All 11 (1-10 + X-2) 15.61% 12278
All 10 in English 10.3% 8098
6-9 22.98% 18073
2-5 29.51% 23204
Just one 7.95% 6253
Not a single one of them 13.64% 10725
TOTAL VOTES 78631

...well shoot, I guess this has only been asked once before. Ah well, can still compare.

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/25/2008 11:22:33 PM | message detail
Tag
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Big Bob | Posted 8/26/2008 12:13:56 AM | message detail
Mega Man X will bomb.

Hard.
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Someone's trying to kill me!
I hate it when people do that.
paraboxx | Posted 8/26/2008 12:16:42 AM | message detail
Everyone's tired of Zack discussion now? Damnit.
And I was just getting ready to write a big (joke) (probably) post rationalizing why I still have him making it to the finals on my bracket.

...then again, maybe it's a good thing I didn't take part in the serious discussion.
greatone10 | Posted 8/26/2008 12:19:05 AM | message detail

Ngamer64 (#030)
For those who missed it last topic, I came up with what I feel will be Zack's match pics for this year, and they can be found here for anyone who wants to take that into consideration:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Zack_Fair




Assuming Round 1 is a full body shot, I'd assume he would draw this picture as it shows his front.

http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/f/f9/CC-Zack-Render.png
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2008 12:22:00 AM | message detail
every single person was confused as to the result of Jill/Ocelot, but went with Jill because she was the last one to impress while Ocelot had Pac-Man. it was a 50/50 match that just happened to have a consensus. everyone knew that.

I don't think so. Virtually everyone I knew - myself included - had Jill over Ocelot easily because there didn't seem to be any way in hell Peach could lose to Pac-Man. It was one of the most zero-discussion stunning upsets we had seen to that point (oddly much like Ocelot/Pac-Man).

Ironically no one thought Peach could ever drop the ball against Meta-Knight either...
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
transience | Posted 8/26/2008 12:23:40 AM | message detail
time to watch Meta-Knight bomb then
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xyzzy
greatone10 | Posted 8/26/2008 12:26:59 AM | message detail
God I hope not. We need him to kill off L-Block early so we don't need to have the magic of last year get old.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/26/2008 12:29:17 AM | message detail
Yeah, certainly possible that Zack gets that render instead, but I don't think SB has a problem with people not facing the camera so long as they're in a cool pose, so I'm still leaning toward my choice. Remember Akuma's pic last year?

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Image:Cb6-29.jpg

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
voltch | Posted 8/26/2008 2:42:41 AM | message detail
wow,88% of this site has played at least one FF,i bet 85-90% of those have played FFVII,which makes overall quite a bit of the site.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2008 2:48:24 AM | message detail
I don't get all the discussion of Zack. I actually played his piece of **** game, and there's no way in hell it helps him. I only have him over Cecil because of his role in FF7.

~*ST*~
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/26/2008 3:05:27 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UxBWAXMc8w&feature=related

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She may be your girl but that ass is mine!
XBOX Live Gamertag: TriggerTRE
transience | Posted 8/26/2008 3:07:47 AM | message detail
woo huge Crisis Core spoilers and an AMV

get this outta here
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/26/2008 4:53:07 AM | message detail
Ironically no one thought Peach could ever drop the ball against Meta-Knight either...

This guy

And yeah, Jill/Ocelot seemed to go against everything we knew about both character. I still have no idea what happened there other than 2006 making all the women look much stronger than they actually are.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/26/2008 4:55:05 AM | message detail
Actually, upon closer inspection, I did have Peach there.

D'oh
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/26/2008 4:59:28 AM | message detail
Jill Valentine will probably outlast Ocelot in this contest.

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She may be your girl but that ass is mine!
XBOX Live Gamertag: TriggerTRE
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2008 5:02:11 AM | message detail
KOS didn't look to impressive last year, almost allowing LFF'd Diablo/Arthas to slip past her.

...Considering most people had Diablo winning, this is a strange observation.

Also, I miss the days when we discussed Yoshi/Knux instead of Zack/Zidane.

I might do some quick observations and analyses later.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 8/26/2008 5:05:03 AM | message detail
Tag. I really need to actually keep up with contest stats for once, they always interest me yet I never participate.
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