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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 557

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/24/2008 11:40:19 AM | message detail
Once again, fanbase splits. Tidus was one of three RPG characters in his poll, whereas Pikachu was the lone Nintendo rep. If anything, the roles will be reversed for this second round match.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MnMZero | Posted 8/24/2008 11:45:00 AM | message detail
My thoughts on Nero: Yeah, DMC4 sales might be close to DMC, but it's a completely different circumstance. DMC was released on a system with few big hits and got a lot of attention on the PS2, plus it had a year to saturate and gain Dante some popularity. Dante debuted in the 2k2 contest as a midcarder. DMC4 hasn't made nearly as big a splash as the first DMC plus it hasn't had as long to saturate, and really it seems like DMC4 will fade with time eventually with so many action games being released. Plus, Nero simply isn't Dante. So already, I think midcarder is a ceiling that Nero has no chance of reaching for this contest.

The main thing helping him in that match though will be Mega Man automatically sapping up many of Olimar's votes. Nero should be able to get by a gimped Olimar, but it really isn't due to his strength alone. Banjo being thrown in there doesn't help Olimar either.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 11:51:06 AM | message detail
Nero gets out of the first round on everyon else's weakness. You have to draw a line at where you think Smash will help people, and Olimar is under that line.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ChronicYouth | Posted 8/24/2008 12:29:17 PM | message detail
I don't understand how people aren't supporting Axel Steel in that match. Midna was bloody pathetic last year, all Axel needs is to be above the fodder line to do it, and with Guitar Hero's success, I can't see him not winning here.

this is why you should not be allowed to talk about anything contest related ever... you don't even need to know who the hell he is to play the game. if you didn't choose him to be the frontman of your band, there's a good chance you never even know who the **** he is. and even if you do... who the hell cares? Tanner would triple him.

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can you dig it?
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 12:36:14 PM | message detail
You don't need to know who the hell Vincent Valentine is to play the game. If you don't pick him up, there's a good chance you never even know who the **** he is. And evn if you do, who the hell cares? Kerrigan would triple him.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/24/2008 12:37:49 PM | message detail
Darth Axel Steel
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LegendaryRaiden | Posted 8/24/2008 12:41:59 PM | message detail
Eh, I might say that if it was say Lars Umlaut or Xavier Stone or something... but as a GH fan you pretty much can't not know who Axel Steel is. His name and look are too iconic, and he's been in all of them.
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Did you say nerd? - Raiden
Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell
LegendaryRaiden | Posted 8/24/2008 12:44:06 PM | message detail
As for Nero... I think he's managed to escape the wrath of the DMC fanbase to some degree. I don't think he's like Raiden was as far as fanbase goes, anyway. He's not really that cool... but he's not terrible... and he manages to distinguish himself from Dante enough gameplaywise that people say there's a reason to play him.
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Did you say nerd? - Raiden
Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 12:44:17 PM | message detail
Axel is the default character is he not?

He's also on the cover for GH2 and is in the opening video thing for 2/80's. IMO he's the face of Guitar Hero.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
transience | Posted 8/24/2008 12:45:59 PM | message detail
Nero's gonna be pretty weak.
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xyzzy
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 12:48:11 PM | message detail
Nero can't be much weaker than Virgil, and I'd take Virgil over Olimar.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ChronicYouth | Posted 8/24/2008 12:48:13 PM | message detail
im pretty sure the face of guitar hero is the fret bar actually

fret bar would kick his ass too

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can you dig it?
LegendaryRaiden | Posted 8/24/2008 12:49:37 PM | message detail
Nero can be much weaker than Vergil. Probably won't be, but.

That being said Vergil probably squashes Olimar in an Ulti Style Blowout at least.
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Did you say nerd? - Raiden
Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell
Master Moltar | Posted 8/24/2008 12:51:22 PM | message detail
augh nero

he's just a white haired dante who's all THROUGH THIS ARM and spends most of the time crying for some girl named kyrie

he won't be worth much, but olimar has the deck heavily stacked against him, so nero is looking good in round 1
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/24/2008 12:54:21 PM | message detail
Tidus was one of three RPG characters in his poll, whereas Pikachu was the lone Nintendo rep. If anything, the roles will be reversed for this second round match.

after Crono failed to SFF Auron and Cloud only took 3%, I can't see Isaac and Serge taking anything noticeable in that match. I think Tidus just flat out sucked in the format.

with that said, I'm semi-confident that he'll take second in the second round, but i'd be scared to put him over Donkey Kong. 27% with both Marth and Kratos in the poll sure beats 31% with ... yeah.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
transience | Posted 8/24/2008 12:56:59 PM | message detail
what Moltar said, basically. Nero is no good and Dante makes him look bad all game.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 12:57:27 PM | message detail
Alright, I just changed to Link>Zidane in the first round. God help my soul.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
ChronicYouth | Posted 8/24/2008 1:01:47 PM | message detail
after Crono failed to SFF Auron and Cloud only took 3%, I can't see Isaac and Serge taking anything noticeable in that match. I think Tidus just flat out sucked in the format.

Just because there isn't SFF resulting in a wildly skewed result, it doesn't mean that there isn't still a huge overlap. Put them in a 4-way together and they both do some significant harm to each other.

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can you dig it?
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 1:12:06 PM | message detail
I'm starting to like my DK > Tidus pick more in the first round lately since Pika beat Tidus/Serge despite Isaac and SSBB/MKW still easily being the hottest games on the Wii right now. Since I have Olimar in round two, I've gotta take MM > Tidus after that...but if Nero is there instead, man, I dunno.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 1:13:11 PM | message detail
1. I doubt Olimar moves on.
2. Mega Man would SFF/LFF DK anyway enough for Tidus to move on.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/24/2008 1:24:30 PM | message detail
discussion of DK or Tidus in R2 is moot because WCC moves on IMO
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
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Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 1:26:22 PM | message detail
Pikachu showed us that he's a powerhouse last year. I'd take him easily over Tidus one on one. That said, I still take Tidus over DK.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 2:00:00 PM | message detail
...I just worked out a very strange calculation.

Trying to see if Zidane had a chance, I checked his votals in last year's match. 24234.
Curious, I checked how many votes he got in his match with Crono. 22636.
Could Zidane be somewhat static? I'll assume he is, and give him the lower number.

Checking Link's matches last year, every single one up to the final had 140,000+ votes. The final was way above that, but that's an exception. Any match with Link seems to just draw that amount of votes. I took the highest one, which is 146749 votes, and will assume it is the total.

I peg Link as getting 60% in that poll, which seems about right. That gives him 88049 votes. Luke I'll give 8%, which gives him 11739 votes (although it seems a bit high).

That leaves Shadow. 146749 minus 88049 minus 11739 equals 24325.

This leaves Zidane with 15.42% and Shadow with 16.58%. If I use Zidane's higher number, or if Link eats up more of the poll than I expect, or SFFs Shadow, Zidane wins.


This probably means nothing, but it is interesting.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 2:02:03 PM | message detail
I'm more worried about Banjo costing Olimar the match than Nero matching Olimar, though either could happen. I just think Mario REALLY ****ed over Olimar (worse than DK or Ness, though there's no way Olimar's on either of their levels), SSBB really got him exposed and -- while unusual -- got some fans out of it, and I hear demand for the well-received-but-barely-sold Pikmin 2 has risen really high for a game from the last generation...not to mention whatever Pikmin 2 did for him as a new release after Mario's lashing. I do think Olimar's fans are different enough from Banjo's to not be greatly LFF'd. I also feel Olimar is far more separated from Mega Man's fanbase than Yoshi, though Yoshi is much more favored than Olimar.

Mega Man hardly scares me and Banjo may not LFF him. I'm counting on those two things, because Nero probably won't be strong. At the least, I'd take Olimar > Nero head-to-head...and I really hope his fans hold up in their current four-way!
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
ffmasterjose | Posted 8/24/2008 2:11:30 PM | message detail
Not to intentionally change rails here, but what's everyone's take on...

Arthas Menethil
Ike
Pikachu
Spy

?

Right now I have Pikachu > Arthas Menethil (Arty for the upset) but I don't know how strong Ike is going to be this year. I know Pikachu is going to suck away a lot of votes from him, but will it be enough for Arthas to sneak in and take second? My first thought is "No" but I don't have too many "upsets" in my bracket.

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0/0 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Wario > Zack
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 2:14:08 PM | message detail
Aw, no one wants to comment on my silly stats?

And Arthas is a possibility but I have Ike...but I'm not the most biased person when it comes to that.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 2:18:23 PM | message detail
I think Ike would lose cleanly to KOS-MOS without a Pokemon/SSBB-icon draining him, whereas Arthas most likely could beat KOS-MOS. Ike being held back by Pikachu is going to crush him and Arthas will have a hard choking on this opportunity to place.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
ffmasterjose | Posted 8/24/2008 2:18:31 PM | message detail
I liked your stats. :D
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0/0 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Wario > Zack Fair
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 2:19:49 PM | message detail
I think Ike would lose cleanly to KOS-MOS without a Pokemon/SSBB-icon draining him

You mean pre-Brawl Ike, right?

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 2:21:07 PM | message detail
Guess I'll include silly stats for this one too.

this (marth)

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2888&num=4

plus this

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2893&num=4

equals not losing to Arthas even with Pikachu there


Infallible logic right here.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Lopen | Posted 8/24/2008 2:23:08 PM | message detail
Based off of last year and knowing what a joke Duke is, I'd take Arthas to win Ike's pack last year.
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Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
Seginustemple | Posted 8/24/2008 2:27:22 PM | message detail
I'd take Ike over Arthas one on one, but that fanbase has to be way split in Pikachu's favor. Arthas can probably sneak into second.
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 2:28:59 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato
Posted 8/24/2008 5:14:08 PM
message detail
#226 Aw, no one wants to comment on my silly stats?


It's easily the most imprecise, useless number crunching I've seen in these topics.

And that's saying a lot.

Pikachu > Arthas is a lock to me. Not only is Arthas a decent midcarder in his own right, but he's got Wrath of the Lich King coming up which apparently will feature him prominently. Then there's the whole thing with Pikachu draining Ike of what little strength he has. The guy lost to Duke Nukem and Gordon Freeman last year, despite Brawl coming out, I still have no faith in him beating anything but the weakest characters in the field (aka Tales characters)
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 2:29:33 PM | message detail
Yes, pre-Brawl Ike. Post-Brawl Ike won't keep much of that new-found support against Pikachu though. Pokemon >> FE, and Pikachu is an original SSB-character who can tangle with Ike over the casual SSBB's vote.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2008 2:30:24 PM | message detail
It's easily the most imprecise, useless number crunching I've seen in these topics.

And that's saying a lot.


That's why I called it 'silly stats' and said it probably amounts to nothing. When i said 'comment on it' I meant jokingly, not act like...how you always do.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 2:40:07 PM | message detail
The only joke here is your ability to post coherent arguments
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Seginustemple | Posted 8/24/2008 2:43:18 PM | message detail
I can't tell if you're being serious or not, because that was a pretty cheesy comeback >_>
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 2:49:33 PM | message detail
hey guys, yo mama






Any chance Mewtwo can oust Yoshi in the third round against Cloud and Squall?
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
Seginustemple | Posted 8/24/2008 2:57:21 PM | message detail
I was just thinking about that match. I know Cloud SFF's Squall down below ONE of the Nintendo mascots, but which one...

Yoshi is probably all around stronger than Mewtwo. Mewtwo stayed 4-5% below Bowser, but Toad was in the poll. You'd have to figure a good deal of Toad's votes would have gone to Bowser over Mewtwo were he not in it. And isn't Yoshi around Bowser's level anyways?
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
transience | Posted 8/24/2008 2:57:33 PM | message detail
I like the idea of Sora beating Yoshi, myself. we already saw from Pikachu/Luigi that Pokemon won't lay down, and Sora held up pretty good with Squall...
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 8/24/2008 2:57:51 PM | message detail
and if that happens we get Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo ruh roh
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xyzzy
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 3:03:31 PM | message detail
As good as Sora held out against Squall, we are talking about Yoshi here. Sora is probably around Zero levels, which is still comfortably below Yoshi. Plus I have a feeling Fox is going to get beat into the ground. I would be more worried about Yoshi > Squall in the first round than Sora > Yoshi
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 3:08:24 PM | message detail
Sora held up well to Squall while Aeris was there. Squall held up to Sonic while only Sora was there...

...without Aeris or another big-name FF character, I don't foresee good things for Sora this time either.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/24/2008 4:19:18 PM | message detail
I'd take him easily over Tidus one on one.

haha i love turtle.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
ffmasterjose | Posted 8/24/2008 4:29:21 PM | message detail
Yoshi is an absolute beast, that little guy will surprise you.

Out of Sora/Fox/Squall/Yoshi I have Squall and Yoshi advancing (in that order) but it wouldn't surprise me if Yoshi got the best of Squall. There's going to be SFF going on between Squall and Sora, but for the most part, in Squall's favor. The minimal amount of votes that Fox will sap away from Yoshi won't be enough for Sora to best him.

For what it's worth, in the Division Final I have Cloud > Yoshi

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0/0 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Wario > Zack Fair
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/24/2008 4:33:25 PM | message detail
you guys are counting sora out too easily. the guy stood up to squall within 2% in his match with aeris. he probably dropped due to Sonic.

that match depends on if you think Yoshi can do what Sonic most likely did to Sora.

oh, and I wouldn't put Yoshi over Squall even with Sora in that match. Squall looked practically unaffected.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Big Bob | Posted 8/24/2008 4:39:57 PM | message detail
To me it was like...

Squall > Fox
Sora > Yoshi

And while Squall + Sora = LFF, Fox + Yoshi ALSO = LFF

So it cancels each other out and Squall and Sora advance.
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Someone's trying to kill me!
I hate it when people do that.
Axem Turtle | Posted 8/24/2008 4:51:43 PM | message detail
I doubt Sora is stronger than Yoshi. His 2006 performance was a result of the contest being 3 months after KH2 came out. I'd take Yoshi pretty comfortably in a 1 on 1 situation. This match hinges on how much Squall and Sora SFF eachother, because it's a sure bet that Fox is going to be beaten into the ground by Yoshi.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/24/2008 4:53:25 PM | message detail
that match could go so many ways. as far as we know, Yoshi could have done what Squall did and Mega Man just held him back.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
HaRRicH | Posted 8/24/2008 5:04:19 PM | message detail
you guys are counting sora out too easily. the guy stood up to squall within 2% in his match with aeris. he probably dropped due to Sonic.

Look at their next match together in the following round, without Aeris.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
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