GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 557
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:07:54 PM | message detail |
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September 15th seems a long way off. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/23/2008 4:08:45 PM | message detail |
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Hey potato i dun like u --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/23/2008 4:11:21 PM | message detail |
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Posting this one last time... ANALYSIS CREW 2008 Moltar HM Yo Lopen Tran NGamer Guest (EC and Ed Bellis having special Guest powers) Regulars can start sending their write-ups to me by AIM (Master Moltar 1) or e-mail (mastermoltar@gmail.com) ASAP. Guest sign-ups will open maybe a week before the contest starts. If you reaaaaaally want to do a match, DO NOT REQUEST IT HERE. IM me instead! We'll talk about it via AIM or e-mail and I may give you the OK. --- Moltar Status: =D Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/23/2008 4:12:31 PM | message detail |
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ASAP? This is cruel and unusual! --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/23/2008 4:13:37 PM | message detail |
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ASAP can be in 10 minutes, a day, a week, 2 weeks, 12 hours before the first match... (really not later than that though) --- Moltar Status: =D Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/23/2008 4:17:22 PM | message detail |
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Will do. I'll then resume my usual habit of sending things with about 30 second to spare. You're a dear, Molty! --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 4:22:03 PM | message detail |
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Ike with the bracket advantage? If I remember correctly, Pikachu was
favored to win his four-pack over Tidus/Isaac/Serge while both Gordon
and Duke were favored over Ike... Actually, Tidus was the favourite in his match, and Ike was a clear favourite with all the BRAWLFEAR! At least on Board 8. I know because I was in a minority that had Pikachu winning in the first round and going to the fourth round. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 4:28:37 PM | message detail |
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At least on Board 8. We're on different terms then -- I was talking about in general. I know because I was in a minority that had Pikachu winning in the first round and going to the fourth round. Oh, don't worry -- I've not forgotten. None of us have forgotten. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/23/2008 4:29:20 PM | message detail |
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I've forgotten. --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:30:41 PM | message detail |
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So...Shadow or Zidane? http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2869&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2898&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2882&num=4 Shadow performed okay when there were two nobodies in the poll, but the second he went up against decent competition he completely crumpled. Luke and Zidane are really that, but Link is and makes up for it. It's a definite upset pick but if Link takes up 60% of the poll...Shadow doesn't seem like the type with dedicated fans. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 4:30:45 PM | message detail |
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dont encourage him --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:32:04 PM | message detail |
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Mangled that one sentence. Luke and Zidane aren't decent competition...left out a few words there. >_> --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/23/2008 4:33:43 PM | message detail |
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The fact that Nintendo seems to kill off Sonic character support
(because of Sonic Adventure 2 essentially being a GameCube exclusive,
maybe?) is why I'm confident that winner of Cecil/Zack gets 2nd the
next round. ....of course, Zidane could very easily take 2nd over Shadow for the exact same reason. It'll be interesting. ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:35:29 PM | message detail |
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Well Shadow has been in other games, but they all got mixed reviews if
not being hated outright, and Sonic Adventure 2 Battle is still the
most popular by far, so yeah I could see why Link would hurt Sonic
characters. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 4:35:41 PM | message detail |
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I've been looking at Zidane lately; something about him scares me...but
he's not proven any reason to be scared of him. Shadow may have
crumbled against Auron/Bowser/Ryu, but most people would. Zidante
landed behind Liquid and Alucard on the PS-chain in their four-way last
year, and -- SFF or no -- doing comparable to Kefka against Crono
head-to-head isn't inspiring. I don't fully trust Zidane from what
we've seen, but not nearly enough to put him over Shadow. Still doesn't sit well somehow though. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:39:33 PM | message detail |
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Let me try to imagine the poll. Link with 60%. Luke gets...8%, I'll say. That leaves 32% of the poll left to go between Shadow and Zidane. It's definitely tougher to see Zidane scoring 17% or higher in that scenario, but Shadow did only get 14% in that one poll. It was a very stacked poll, though. ...It could happen, but it would really on Link SFFing Shadow a decent amount. Good enough for me. There's no god damn way I'm going to support Shadow over Zidane. >_> --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 4:41:25 PM | message detail |
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Zidane got tripled by Crono in 2005, then had Ness outdo him by 6.5% in a fourway poll. Zidane is crap, just like his game. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:42:13 PM | message detail |
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Oh BT, you just say the darndest things. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/23/2008 4:42:35 PM | message detail |
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Zidane was more then likely SFF'd to hell by Crono --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/23/2008 4:42:45 PM | message detail |
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Whoa, BT doesn't like FF9? I had no idea. --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:44:59 PM | message detail |
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Alright, if no one wants to comment on that particular match anymore, moving on. Mewtwo/Ness/Pac-Man/Travis. Mewtwo gets first, that's pretty much a lock. Travis is also out; his game isn't popular enough, and being on a Nintendo system doesn't help. That leaves Pac-man and Ness. With no Mario around, how will Pac-man do? He's essentially the incarnation of 'I don't know/care about the other characters', and the characters here fit that bill enough for him to possibly make a stand. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 4:45:49 PM | message detail |
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kleenex more like idontrememberanythingaboutturtle am i right --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 4:46:57 PM | message detail |
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Fourpack of crap FF lead characters (contest strength) Terra Zidane Cecil Ramza --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 4:48:04 PM | message detail |
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I've got Pac-Man for the simple reason that he seems quite strong when
not up against icons (Kefka and Ocelot matches for example). He didn't
let me down in 2005 against Ocelot, he won't let me down here. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/23/2008 4:49:01 PM | message detail |
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I've got Pac-man advancing, due to SFF for Ness --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 4:49:15 PM | message detail |
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I thought Pac-Man would take second for awhile, but I figured if
Scorpion could get ~57% on Pac-Man in 2k2 and Ness = Scorpion through
Sephiroth in 2k4, then Ness fresh off of SSBB's release can withstand
Mewtwo well enough to fend Pac-Man off. There's the added idea of
Nintendo smashing Pac-Man, too, though I think that's much more
reserved for big icons like Mario/Yoshi/Luigi than Nintendo in general. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| Yesmar | Posted 8/23/2008 4:49:58 PM | message detail |
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I actually have Pac-Man advancing as well. I actually think that he
would do well in this format, because the group of people that
automatically votes for the most recognizable character makes up large
enough a portion of the voters that Pac-Man would be able to slide on
through. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 4:52:53 PM | message detail |
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Zidane > Ramza feels good enough...maybe switch them. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:56:23 PM | message detail |
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I agree with Harrich, although that's probably my Ness bias speaking. Alucard Captain Falcon Diddy Kong Kratos Aurion Alucard gets 1st by virtue of the other three being Nintendo or Nintend-related. It helps that he's...ya know, stronger than them anyway. But what about the other three? Marth held up pretty well against DK, and Marth probably = Captain Falcon. It all depends on how weak Diddy is compared to DK...and considering every game Diddy appears in is named Donkey Kong ________, it's probably by a sizable amount. Diddy also isn't the most popular Brawl character, from what I can tell. He isn't hated, he's just...not used very much. And then there's a Tales character! They seem to like hanging around. Kratos has actually performed halfway decent in these contests, though. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't he almost as strong as CF in 1 on 1 polls? With CF and Diddy LFFing, who knows? It hurts his chances that he's Nintendo-related as well, but I could see it happening. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/23/2008 4:58:40 PM | message detail |
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I have NO faith in Tales characters. They really got to stop nominating those jobbers. When in doubt, Falcon...out? Uh anyway I got Falcon second --- Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 4:59:01 PM | message detail |
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Diddy by far. Unlike Falcon, his non-Smash games are very popular, which means he won't just be drawing from Brawl. I've always said I'd take Diddy over Donkey, and were it not for Falcon, I'd put him as first here. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/23/2008 4:59:33 PM | message detail |
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I got Falcon second also.. I mean, Diddy and Falcon are pretty close, but Falcon has the internet meme thing going for him --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 4:59:58 PM | message detail |
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I've always said I'd take Diddy over Donkey ... ... ... Hey guys Magus>Crono 2003 --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| ZFS | Posted 8/23/2008 5:04:37 PM | message detail |
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that winner of Cecil/Zack still holdin' onto the hope i see ! --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 5:08:59 PM | message detail |
| I saw pre-SSBB Wario cleanly beat CF last year,
who lost hard to pre-SSBB MK in the next round. Pre-SSBB, I would have
taken Diddy > MK. I'll take post-SSBB Diddy over CF pretty easily. That said, I don't like their chances against Kratos. He's solid enough, ToS or not, to withstand them unless Diddy destroys CF and is around DK in strength...both of which I'm skeptical of, though I guess it's not impossible. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 5:09:07 PM | message detail |
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MyWorldIsCrono Posted 8/23/2008 7:59:33 PM message detail #032 I got Falcon second also.. I mean, Diddy and Falcon are pretty close, but Falcon has the internet meme thing going for him First of all, how the hell are Diddy and Falcon close? Secondly, internet meme? Are you on crack? CATS had the biggest internet meme of all time and look at him. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/23/2008 5:09:12 PM | message detail |
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Captain Falcon is clearly weaker than Kratos Aurion based on past contests. CF should not be a factor. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 5:10:03 PM | message detail |
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People thinking that Fails characters are worth anything but fodder
need to get their head's checked. And stop nominating the boring losers. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2008 5:11:41 PM | message detail |
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Shadow lost updates to Pyramid Head. Almost any character with name recognition would be an sexy upset pick in this format. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/23/2008 5:11:41 PM | message detail |
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how is diddy more popular then falcon? --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| Lopen | Posted 8/23/2008 5:11:54 PM | message detail |
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43% on Diablo isn't exactly fodder... that's barely worse than Kefka did. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 5:12:37 PM | message detail |
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Donkey Kong Country games? I'll safely say that Donkey Kong Country 2 sold more than double all the F-Zero games combined. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 5:15:02 PM | message detail |
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I'll give Kratos credit -- he did better than Ridley against Diablo and
was ~3.5% behind Midna (though that's more of her disappointing than
anything). I think that'll be enough to pass up the Diddy/CF split. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 5:16:07 PM | message detail |
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Kratos A got beat by Scorpion by 15% in a four-way, and lost to Midna to boot. The same Midna that Frog killed by 5% the very next round. Let's look at all the Tales characters that have been in the contests. Aside from beating a weak Wesker, what have any of them done? --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/23/2008 5:18:10 PM | message detail |
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Yeah because surely Samus did nothing to Midna. 43% on Diablo is 43% on
Diablo. Captain Falcon sure as hell wouldn't match that... and although
one could make a case for Diddy I wouldn't bet on him managing it
either. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2008 5:18:27 PM | message detail |
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Once again, I agree with Harrich. I've got Alucard>Kratos A at the moment, and if I change it I'm going Diddy. Hmm...trying to find more 1st-round matches that haven't been debated to death yet. L-Block Meta Knight Ryu (Street Fighter) The Dog This is a very important match that may make or break our brackets. How will The Block perform? Worse, probably, but how much worse? People are calling Ryu>MK because of The Dog LFFing joke votes, but I'm not convinced. The Dog seems like a joke character everyone actively hates - not a funny one like L-Block. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/23/2008 5:20:50 PM | message detail |
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DIVISION 5 - Donkey Kong vs. Tails vs. Tidus vs. Weighted Companion Cube I had Cube winning this, I really did. But then... an epiphany. An epiphany that told me that if joke characters would do THAT well, this contest wouldn't even be worth predicting. I examined things more logically and deduced that there were really too many jokes here for even one of them, let alone all of them, to catch the lightning in a bottle that L-Block did last year. It's simply too difficult to repeat, especially for something as obscure as Weighted Companion Cube. Everyone knows Tetris blocks, many people know The Dog, most people can recognize Sandbag... but this thing? Na. With Cube pushed out of the picture (lol), it's a match between Tidus and Donkey Kong. Tidus is stronger and out for Nintendo blood, so he'll win this, and he'll get my damned vote doing it. My pick: Tidus > Donkey Kong - Banjo vs. Captain Olimar vs. Mega Man vs. Nero BRAWLFEAROlimar will come in with a boost since the last time we saw him (about thirty years ago in a SFF match), but will it be enough to surpass the new Devil May Cry star? Simply put, no. While not officially Nintendo characters, Mega Man and Banjo will be sapping Olimar far more than Nero, who'll stick out like a sore thumb. Plus, the guy looks exactly like Dante, and his game is recent. Not tough. My pick: Mega Man > Nero - King Dedede vs. Pit vs. Ryu Hayabusa vs. Zero Pikachu and Ike can both utilize their BRAWLFEAR when going up against the likes of Arthas and Spy. Dedede and Pit can't replicate that against the likes of Hayabusa and Zero. Another easy one. My pick: Zero > Ryu Hayabusa - Albert Wesker vs. Sackboy vs. Solid Snake vs. Vivi Ornitier Three easy matches in a row? In THIS hell? Wow, who'd-a thunk it. Snake kills everything, Sackboy performs terribly, and Vivi proves too much for Albert "the fans love me more than the RE chicks, even!" Wesker. Maybe I'll give Wesker a pity vote. lol naaaaa Snake, baby! Take it to the bank in 2008! My pick: Snake > Vivi --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2008 5:21:03 PM | message detail |
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Frog isn't such a pushover in this format though, and I think you may
be giving Diddy split with CF too much credit. Even with your idea that
Diddy > DK, CF can suck up a lot of his SSBB-support...and, though
this may be unpopular, I question just how popular the DKC games are.
Popular, yes, but I don't think it's as strong some it'd been made out
to be. Just saying...it's not a gimme. --- NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2008 5:25:55 PM | message detail |
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If Diddy's DKC games mattered so much he would have made it in before
this year, before SSBB. I'm not thinking the DKC fanbase was split on
nominating Dixie and Kiddy as opposed to Diddy or anything stupid like
that, which leaves the biggest reason of all - because Diddy wasn't popular enough. SSBB is all well and good, but Diddy is going to sneak by on the weaknesses of his opponents here. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2008 5:27:15 PM | message detail |
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Yeah because surely Samus did nothing to Midna. 43% on Diablo is 43%
on Diablo. Captain Falcon sure as hell wouldn't match that... and
although one could make a case for Diddy I wouldn't bet on him managing
it either. So the Queen of not SFFing anything suddenly SFFs something? Despite Midna doing pretty much the same on Scorpion? --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
