GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 556
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2008 8:34:59 AM | message detail |
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i think liquid crumbles to tough competition but he can pull it off. we saw what Toad did for crying out loud. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/22/2008 8:51:21 AM | message detail |
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Can I do all Cecil matches? Please? I've been waiting since 2k5 for him to have a match he could compete in. ...Please? :( Alright, but remind me later so I don't give the match to someone else. An actual topic will be made later to sign-up to do a Guest analysis. On another note, I was thinking about this last night and I kinda want to go Ryu > Meta. L thrives on momentum, but the question is will it keep its momemtum from last contest? Most of us already have Ryu > L, but with Meta being a legit competitor (remember L only had one strong opponent in its R1 match last year) and BRAWLFEAR and The Dog to also suck up joke votes... i want to believe so bad --- Moltar Status: =D Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264 |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 8:52:04 AM | message detail |
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OOH MOLTAR I WANT TO DO A GUEST ANALYSIS And I put Ryu > MK it's a solid pick ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/22/2008 8:53:40 AM | message detail |
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I have Ryu sneaking into the finals. I think the fact that he's one of
my favorite characters might have something to do with it, but
logically with all the SFF flying around...it could happen. --- Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/22/2008 8:53:44 AM | message detail |
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/22/2008 4:42:36 AM (#176) I wouldn't give it much thought. The early consensus is that this is the toughest, most unpredictable, most ridiculous bracket ever. Anyone thinking this is harder than 2002 needs a CT Scan posthaste. ~*ST*~ --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 8:55:02 AM | message detail |
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Anyone thinking this is harder than 2002 needs a CT Scan posthaste. Nothing will ever be harder then 2k2 barring a contest with nothing but newcomers Which would of course suck But this does seem to be the hardest non-2k2 bracket ever (which is probably because every match has a newcomer in it) ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 8/22/2008 9:04:21 AM | message detail |
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Just noticed something kinda cool: every single four-pack has at least one new character in it. --- This was KING BELLIS LOL ed status: UGH SHARP ELBOWS |
| Gaddswell | Posted 8/22/2008 9:06:30 AM | message detail |
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Anyone think that Vincent/Crono will be different this time with Samus/Ryu instead of Link/Zero? --- Nominate Pikachu for the character battle! |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/22/2008 9:25:30 AM | message detail |
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This bracket isn't really that hard at all. There are 2 first round
matches that are giving me trouble, and that's the Duke Nukem fourpack
of suck and L-block. I have Ryu > MKnight now, but I don't feel
comfortable about it at all. If L-block can keep his momentum from last
year my bracket is screwed, since I have Ryu in the finals <_< Other than that, the only hard parts are Mega Man X vs Nintendo and Squall/Yoshi with Cloud/Mewtwo in the poll. Also I was just thinking about the possibility of a potential Snake > Zero > Mega Man upset. We saw what happened last time Zero went against the Blue Bomber, but with X in the contest, does regular MM lose some support? I think this is one sexy upset pick I'm not going to take. |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/22/2008 9:28:12 AM | message detail |
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Samus/Crono/Vincent/Ryu can be very different that last year's. For starters, Crono no longer has Link and Zero leeching his SNES support, so he can very realistically beat Vinny. And Ryu doesn't have someone SFFing him into the ground like Zero did and can very possibly squeak the upset. I would take Ryu > Zero 1 on 1 anyways, and with all the SF4 talk, I think Ryu's in for a great year. |
| consolefreak | Posted 8/22/2008 10:09:41 AM | message detail |
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Other than that, the only hard parts are Mega Man X vs Nintendo and Squall/Yoshi with Cloud/Mewtwo in the poll. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1770 Meanwhile, Yoshi > Mewtwo. Squall isn't that much stronger than Yoshi to begin with. Him finishing before Yoshi in this 4-pack is absurd. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/22/2008 10:13:03 AM | message detail |
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Also I was just thinking about the possibility of a potential Snake
> Zero > Mega Man upset. We saw what happened last time Zero went
against the Blue Bomber, but with X in the contest, does regular MM
lose some support? I think this is one sexy upset pick I'm not going to take. oh my GOD --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/22/2008 10:14:06 AM | message detail |
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XD --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2008 10:16:46 AM | message detail |
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let turtle go on and be silly. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/22/2008 10:32:03 AM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1770 Meanwhile, Yoshi > Mewtwo. Squall isn't that much stronger than Yoshi to begin with. Him finishing before Yoshi in this 4-pack is absurd. Forgot about that match. I have Yoshi in my bracket, but there is an outside chance that KH2 helped further seperate Squall from Cloud or something. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2008 10:33:05 AM | message detail |
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yes, just like how KH helped him in that match! ... right. you know Cloud was in KH too. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| Yesmar | Posted 8/22/2008 10:47:36 AM | message detail |
| Ok, this may take a while, but I think I'm going
to sum up a lot of stuff I've been saying and thinking to write my
first huge analysis of the season: Why Niko is Advancing I know that a lot of people have Niko not even getting out of the first round, but I definitely think that he has the chance to go the distance and make it all the way to the quarter finals, and here's my explanation as to why, with several rebuttals to popular arguments against my claims. Argument: "Niko is not going to be any more popular than CJ." Response: Why that doesn't matter. For one, CJ is NOT some high end fodder scrub. He is a pinch above the fodder line, which should be all that's necessary to advance against this crew who are all right on the borderline. I know that as soon as I say CJ is not some scrub, people will claim "But he lost to NESS." Irrelevant. Ness is a decent midcarder himself and losing to him by the amount that CJ did is nothing to be ashamed of. For reference, let's use the X-Stats to come up with an understandable reference for Niko. While we've had no reliable X-Stats on Ness over the years, we do have a method to circumvent this. Ness and Tails performed roughly equally against Auron, and Tails got roughly the same results on Joe that Ness got on Carl Johnson. This gives Joe an X-Stat ranking of 21 on BL*, which is pretty much all I think Niko would need to have this match. Keep in mind that this is also BEFORE you adjust for any Nintendo Boost that Ness might have gotten in 2005, thus pushing CJ's ranking up even further. Even ignoring X-Stats, Ness kept percentages fairly close against two solid midcarders last year in Alucard and Liquid Snake. Why Niko might be more popular than CJ Anyway While even assuming that Niko being as popular as CJ could give him the win, I think that you can even go past that somewhat. For one, Niko has the advantage of his game being much more fresh than Vercetti and CJ ever did. Both of them had ~ 9 months from the release of their game to their contest debut, while Niko gets the advantage of having ~5 months instead, and being much more fresh in the voters' minds. Sure discussion of the game has died off, but so has discussion of Brawl to an extent, and I don't have to explain what's happened with the bracket in regards to that. Marcus Fenix had even more of a distance between release and his debut and look what happened there. Also, I have not played GTA IV, but as is my understanding, Niko's development as he moves to America and tries for the "American Dream" plays a significant role in the game, at least more so than any personal development did for Vercetti, or possibly CJ as well. He appears to be more shaped than the other two characters, which I know usually doesn't affect the voters much, but with all other things being the same might have an effect. This is not even to mention the possible racism of GameFAQS voters or their preference for a more "mobster" like character instead of that of a "gangster," although I admit that I'm not sure which one Niko falls into. *Possibly a little lower once you adjust for differing percentages. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| Yesmar | Posted 8/22/2008 10:49:05 AM | message detail |
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Final Section: Niko's competition As I said before at his lowest, I believe Niko has to be around 21 on BL, which should be that's needed to beat the other characters, except for possibly Marth, who I all believe are on the fodder line. I'll take this one by one. Kefka: The most obvious argument I have here is that if Fenix could beat Kefka why can't Niko? GTAIV is more popular than Gears of War most likely, AND Niko probably has more of a personality. What's not to gain? Also, keep in mind that while Kefka might have beaten CJ in 2005, we have seen demographic shifts since then. Chrono Trigger and its characters have fallen off, so I don't see why the same would not happen to those from FFVI as well. This would put Kefka dangerously close to the fodder line. Duke: Everyone keeps talking about Duke's first round performance last year, but why is everyone ignoring his second round? While his first round might imply him being above the fodder line (This is itself going off of what we assume about Gordon rather than what we assume about Ike for example), what does his second round performance imply? To me, it implies the fodder line. To be honest, I'm not sure I can trust either result, when there were 3 PC characters splitting the fanbase in the first poll, and two splitting the PC FPS fanbase in both polls, and when in doubt I have no other option than to look at what logic and other results imply, and for both, that's not much better than high end fodder. Marth: Marth is a wildcard, I admit, and to be honest, I don't have much to say, since I don't know A) How popular DK is now, B) How him and/or Marth would leech each other or C) How well he would do in this format, so for now, I'll concede that Marth might have a shot at Niko, but for now, I think that he's the only one. Phew. That took a while. Hopefully this will stir up some discussion in the topic. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 8/22/2008 10:54:00 AM | message detail |
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(This is itself going off of what we assume about Gordon rather than what we assume about Ike for example) Gordon Freeman is pretty strong nowadays. Half-Life 2 being the most popular FPS game for PCs and not to mention Orange Box being extremely popular for consoles as well has made him this way. Going out and beating Gordon proves that you are, at the very least, a midcarder. Which is a lot stronger then CJ, and even stronger then Tommy. Niko would have to basically erase history if he is to win. No GTA character has ever performed well in these things, so there's no real reason to believe that Niko will magically fix that trend just because he's new (which both Tommy and CJ had going for them as well). --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| Yesmar | Posted 8/22/2008 10:57:11 AM | message detail |
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Going out and beating Gordon proves that you are, at the very least, a midcarder. Duke has been high end fodder for years, even when we had less mainstream voters, and then all of a sudden he becomes popular again? That's still ignoring his second round match, where he didn't come close at all to beating Gordon. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| Tohoya | Posted 8/22/2008 10:58:40 AM | message detail |
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Is Axel Steel the KH Axel? --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/22/2008 10:59:33 AM | message detail |
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Hes guitar hero axel --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 8/22/2008 11:24:34 AM | message detail |
| Another random fact: including Villains Contest
and bonus post-contest polls, the total number of contest characters
we've seen now comes to 256. Nice! Also, I made a nifty retooled bracket using all 128 of the characters. You can check it out if you want. http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45020188 --- This was KING BELLIS LOL ed status: UGH SHARP ELBOWS |
| Tohoya | Posted 8/22/2008 11:33:28 AM | message detail |
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Am I stupid for having Luigi>Roxas in Luigi/Roxas/Liquid Snake? --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 8/22/2008 11:36:53 AM | message detail |
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^ No. where he didn't come close at all to beating Gordon. The Orange Box came out between the matches. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 8/22/2008 11:38:25 AM | message detail |
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I'll do a guest write-up later if you want me to, Moltar. --- B8BL Gambling Project: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=39885921 |
| Tohoya | Posted 8/22/2008 12:02:36 PM | message detail |
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Link/Niko/Lucario/Shadow, go! --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/22/2008 12:03:02 PM | message detail |
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Hogger Stats and Discussion - Part 556 --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| Yesmar | Posted 8/22/2008 12:24:32 PM | message detail |
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The Orange Box came out between the matches. Hmm. I didn't know that. Still, the only new piece of software that had for Gordon was Episode 2. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| voltch | Posted 8/22/2008 12:29:11 PM | message detail |
| ya know,if Niko gets the face pic from the
advertising boards then no way in hell is he not getting
recognised,he's at least on Vercetti's level in my mind and i'm talking
about the strongest Vercetti we've ever had. Also Vercetti was voice by a somewhat famous person,so i think some people voted for him on that basis,but Niko is very recognisable and a lot of people own his game. I think Europe would back Niko and in a close match like this it will make a difference. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 12:31:40 PM | message detail |
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Meh, I already wrote up my own novel about Marth > Niko (screw you Kefka and Duke) Check Ngamers topic imo ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:33:40 PM | message detail |
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Recognition isn't the problem with Niko. GTA4 was plastered all over
the place a few months ago. The problem is if people even care about
Niko. Now, I didn't play GTA4, so I don't know what kind of character
he is, but if no one likes him, the recognition isn't going to do much. --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| ChronicYouth | Posted 8/22/2008 12:34:48 PM | message detail |
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Is there seriously talk going on about Liquid possibly outdoing Luigi or Bowser? I think there's a whole hell of a lot better chance Liquid belly flops first round against Roxas. When's the last time Liquid Snake hasn't had a miserable contest performance? SC2K4? Not that I think Roxas will be particularly strong, but Roxas did hold up somewhat decently with Riku in the poll, not that getting dominated by Ryu H. really instills any rock solid confidence, but seeing what Riku did the next round by upsetting Ryu after nearly everyone had jumped ship because Ryu H = Riku + Roxas combined in the first round. As of now I still have Liquid advancing over Roxas, but it's one of the matches I'm still thinking about changing. --- can you dig it? |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:37:01 PM | message detail |
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Hell, I have Niko going far. I think people actually like him more than
his GTA counterparts, and given how widely received GTA4 actually was,
he looks pretty good. Marth is potentially weaker than Ike, or at least
close, who Duke beat, and it's friggin' Duke Nukem. Don't forget Kefka
couldn't beat Fenix, and FF6 characters aren't exactly strong. Regardless, Marth is probably stronger than Ike, since he's been around longer, and maybe I'm wrong here, but I have Niko > Marth.... so, that means with Lucario and Altair in the other match, Luc and Marth SFF each other, Niko and Altair advance. Niko and Altair take on Link and Shadow, so after Link does his business, which would hurt Shadow the most, I suppose, Niko is obviously stronger than Altair, so it's Link > Niko. Yeah, I know, it sucks. I'm just overrating GTA here. --- Wigs, Now 42.5% Cooler Than the Other Side of your Pillow: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~ Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05 |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 12:38:20 PM | message detail |
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Niko and Altair advance. no No. NO. ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/22/2008 12:39:40 PM | message detail |
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I call guest analysis on Mewtwo/Ness/Travis/Pac-Man. That match is too
weird for me to not commentate on. That or Diddy's match <_< --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Lopen | Posted 8/22/2008 12:40:11 PM | message detail |
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Actually I think Turtle might be onto something with the potential Zero
> Mega Man pick. I'm not picking it, but it's definitely something I
considered when filling out my bracket. Were it MMX instead of Mega Man
there I surely would've taken it. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:40:43 PM | message detail |
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Recognition isn't the problem with Niko. GTA4 was plastered all over
the place a few months ago. The problem is if people even care about
Niko. Now, I didn't play GTA4, so I don't know what kind of character
he is, but if no one likes him, the recognition isn't going to do much. That's the thing, I believe he actually has something of a personality. I've seen the game being played. Niko and Altair advance if the other 2 are Lucario and Marth, for sure. If it's anyone else, it'll just be Lucario. As for the Liquid/Luigi/Bowser ordeal, I have Luigi > Liquid... I think Luigi will outdo Bowser a decent bit, since villains tend to do a little worse when up against respective heroes. --- Wigs, Now 42.5% Cooler Than the Other Side of your Pillow: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~ Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/22/2008 12:41:42 PM | message detail |
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Better to overrate GTAIV than to overrate Duke and Kefka of all people. --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/22/2008 12:42:04 PM | message detail |
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Niko is by far the most likeable of the GTA main characters. He's not
just a cold blooded killer, he has an actual history and is really in
conflict about what he does, and is in a very story heave game. --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| Lopen | Posted 8/22/2008 12:42:43 PM | message detail |
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Marth is potentially weaker than Ike, or at least close, No friggin way. Remember that Ike did NOT have Brawl last year. I do not get the people who are considering The Duke in that match. And this is coming from a guy who actually called him correctly last year. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/22/2008 12:45:08 PM | message detail |
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I'd rather you guys not call matches because I'm likely to forget later and everyone is going to be upset. If you IM me to request a match, we'll discuss it and I may give you the okay. Just don't mention it in here and expect to get it. And I don't really see Marth doing anything but not winning his fourpack with ease. He definitely stronger than pre-Brawl Ike and he has Melee, Brawl and his on FE game that was released here to back him up. --- Moltar Status: =D Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264 |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 12:46:38 PM | message detail |
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Meh, I can't see Marth taking anything less then 1st. Duke Nukem's
gotten weaker (and will continue to do so until 2042 when his game is
released), Marth is at least 5 times stronger then Pre-Brawl Ike (but I
dunno about Post-Brawl Ike), and Niko/Kefka can't challenge a Nintendo
posterboy like that. ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:47:01 PM | message detail |
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I do not get the people who are considering The Duke in that match. Balls of steel. --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/22/2008 12:47:59 PM | message detail |
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marth is a nintendo posterboy? what? his games havent even come to america --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:48:18 PM | message detail |
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Also, Marth has no such Fire Emblem game in the US. The DS remake was
released in Japan, but it's not touching the states until probably next
year. --- Gilgamesh didn't make the bracket this year. Shame on you. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 12:48:22 PM | message detail |
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He's a Smash posterboy and we all know how everyone loves smash (Ness > CJ) ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 8/22/2008 12:48:40 PM | message detail |
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They ain't got balls of steel, boy. They're just afraid of the Duke
because he ripped off their bracket's head and **** down its neck last
year. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404 |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:48:49 PM | message detail |
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Ike didn't have Brawl, but he was announced in Brawl by then. But I bet
he would actually get a little, not much, after it actually came out... Ever since Marth got less votes than DK in one of the 4packs, I've learned not to put too much weight into SSB popularity, because if we had Marth should have many more votes than DK (because we know DK really isn't that popular....), and if DK > Marth, then DK > Ike. Ike and Marth are probably comparable... Marth might be more well known from being around longer and being in SSB games longer... but Ike actually is in an American game. I'm gonna go out on a limb here actually and say Kefka gets last. FF6 just hasn't done enough lately... I'm picking Marth to go in second because although I don't want to weigh SSB *that* much, it'll weigh enough to give Marth an extra push. I'm gonna have to say Ike > Marth though. Now that they're both in SSB games, but Ike has FE9 and 10. --- Wigs, Now 42.5% Cooler Than the Other Side of your Pillow: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~ Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05 |
| voltch | Posted 8/22/2008 12:49:18 PM | message detail |
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seriously who will take the europe vote? Kefka?FFVI isn't exactly big there for the casuals,marth?I really don't think SSBB is that strong over there compared to america and as for Duke Nukem only his hardcore base ever sticks to him. I'm really sure that mainstream games will receive plenty of love from europe because well when it comes to gaming it always gets screwed. so for close matches i really believe one continent can make the difference. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
