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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 556

SonicRaptor | Posted 8/21/2008 10:37:44 PM | message detail
What are Niko's chances? I actually have him above Kefka simply because I believe Kefka is a choker.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 10:40:37 PM | message detail
I feel Niko's chances are very slim. There's no way he takes Marth, and I very much doubt he can sneak past Duke or Kefka.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Big Bob | Posted 8/21/2008 10:40:49 PM | message detail
Dammit, my entire bracket rests on L-Block losing in the first round.

And I had him winning the whole thing at first, too.

This is the only contest where the entire bracket lies on a first round match. -_-;
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Someone's trying to kill me!
I hate it when people do that.
transience | Posted 8/21/2008 10:54:09 PM | message detail
the thing about Niko is that if he gets past round 1, he's got a pretty easy path, oddly. Marth and Lucario? give me Niko. Niko could outrank Shadow, too, given what we saw of him last year. if GTA is still good in multi-option polls, watch out.
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xyzzy
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/21/2008 10:54:24 PM | message detail
Link > Cloud > Snake > Vincent

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 11:00:08 PM | message detail
I remember Vercetti doing pretty poorly last year, too. For what it's worth, I'd still take Vercetti over Niko.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/21/2008 11:00:10 PM | message detail
the thing about Niko is that if he gets past round 1, he's got a pretty easy path, oddly. Marth and Lucario? give me Niko. Niko could outrank Shadow, too, given what we saw of him last year. if GTA is still good in multi-option polls, watch out.

That was my thought as well, if he gets out of the first round the pure SFF afterwards allows him to squeak past.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 11:09:08 PM | message detail
I wouldn't even call Niko beating Altair that safe a pick. I'm really not sold on this guy being anywhere near Vercetti, especially after Carl Johnson bombing and GTAIV falling off the map surprisingly quickly. Also, remember that both Tommy and Carl had some hype about them leading up to their games' respective releases. Tommy was the first GTA main with a story and identity, and Carl was not only the first black main, but the first truly customizable one as well. What the heck did we know or care about Niko prior to release? This was the GTA with fancy graphics; Niko was invisible.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 8/21/2008 11:15:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't think you should be putting "GTA", "Multi-option poll" and "Good" in the same sentence.

46% Master Chief
30% Yuna
15% Vercetti
9% PaRappa

That's probably one of the worst performances that I can remember from last year. And if I remember correctly, it was even pre-Halo 3 Master Chief.
Big Bob | Posted 8/21/2008 11:30:08 PM | message detail
Vercetti got SFF'd. It's not that hard to comprehend; GTA and Halo are both on the Xbox and both have roughly the same target audience.
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Someone's trying to kill me!
I hate it when people do that.
Yesmar | Posted 8/21/2008 11:30:59 PM | message detail
I'm really not sold on this guy being anywhere near Vercetti, especially after Carl Johnson bombing

Carl Johnson disappointed but he wasn't horrible or anything. He was still above the fodder line, most likely!
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transience | Posted 8/21/2008 11:32:46 PM | message detail
that's the ultimate casual bait in the Chief, though. the one thing that could slow down GTA.

it's certainly not a lock, but he's pretty much SFF-proof and GTA's always looked good in multi-option polls.
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xyzzy
voltch | Posted 8/21/2008 11:36:15 PM | message detail
CJ was black and thus failed,i mean how the hell does Barret never get into these contests.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
transience | Posted 8/21/2008 11:36:37 PM | message detail
VOLTCH'D
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xyzzy
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 8/21/2008 11:57:12 PM | message detail
it's certainly not a lock, but he's pretty much SFF-proof and GTA's always looked good in multi-option polls.

So you're talking non-contest game polls? I really don't see the relevance.

And I'm aware of Master Chief hurting Vercetti there, but it's the only multi-option poll with a GTA character and he certainly didn't look good.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2008 12:09:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter? Gone? What'd I miss?

I'm not gone I'm just dead
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/22/2008 12:10:17 AM | message detail
I've got a crush on Obama.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/22/2008 12:22:39 AM | message detail
I just released that Mario got a lot of potential to boost: Galaxy, Brawl, Mario Kart Wii and Mario VS Sonic.

That's 4 popular games...
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2008 12:25:35 AM | message detail
I've speculated on this before but I'll say it again; Mario boosting significantly from any game short of revolutionary just seems like wishful thinking to me. He is Nintendo, he moves with Nintendo, it explains why the site-shift did so many wonders for him back in 2005.

Honestly I wouldn't bet against Nintendo, but we haven't seen the guy since 2k5 and the site seems fairly down on the Wii lately. I wouldn't expect much.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2008 12:26:35 AM | message detail
Err, haven't seen him outside of four-ways since 2k5. I keep forgetting that doesn't exactly matter a ton here...
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
ZFS | Posted 8/22/2008 12:27:36 AM | message detail
The only game there that even has a chance of potentially doing anything for Mario is Galaxy. Even then, I'd be doubtful of how much it's going to matter to someone who's had so many games.

But Mario Kart, Brawl, Mario vs Sonic? These aren't going to anything.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/22/2008 12:30:16 AM | message detail
Unless the next Mario game comes with a free blowjob ticket redeemable through Nintendo.com, individual games won't directly be doing anything for the guy. Like KH said, Mario is the tide, NOT SOME SAND CASTLE.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/22/2008 1:13:19 AM | message detail
At least Tran is bringing some sense to this Niko business. There's no way he's on par with Vercetti or CJ.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/22/2008 1:16:12 AM | message detail
Galaxy's gotta have some bit of effect, but yeah, everything else stated is pretty much correct
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/22/2008 1:40:54 AM | message detail
I'm really struggling to predict this years bracket. I don't know if it's because I've been away from B8 for so long or because I haven't really paid any attention to gaming in the last year or so. I fully expect this year to be my worst bracket ever. There's just so many first round matches where I haven't got a clue who is going to come second >_>
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/22/2008 1:42:36 AM | message detail
I wouldn't give it much thought. The early consensus is that this is the toughest, most unpredictable, most ridiculous bracket ever.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 8/22/2008 1:43:33 AM | message detail
the first round doesn't matter. like, at all.
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xyzzy
ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/22/2008 1:45:45 AM | message detail
Well I know that but I haven't even gotten on to the latter rounds yet so can't really comment.
transience | Posted 8/22/2008 1:46:51 AM | message detail
there's some awkward inter-company matches later where getting the order wrong will cost more than an entire division of first round matches. and then there's the Block, which you can't even logically predict. so who knows.
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/22/2008 2:19:21 AM | message detail
DIVISION 4

- Amaterasu vs. Crono vs. Frank West vs. Kaim Argonar
Crono is out for vengeance and Amaterasu has herself a Wii port. That about wraps things up here!

My pick: Crono > Amaterasu

- L-Block vs. Meta Knight vs. Ryu vs. The Dog
Well. Well well well well well. Well now. I'll save the big write-up for the Crew, but for now, I feel I painfully must admit this match's historic importance. It is, and I say this with an internet grimace, one of the most historic contest matches of all time. How? Because never before has a first round match had the known potential to decide an entire contest. Sure, L-Block did it last year, but hardly anyone expected it, and no one knew what was to come. This time, it's different. This god damned FIRST ROUND match between a dog and a block can decide EVERYTHING.

Anything can happen. I see L-Block winning. I see voters shunning the L-Block joke en masse and siding with The Dog, thereby giving The Dog The Win. I see Ryu winning. I even see L-Block and The Dog killing each other so bad that Meta Knight makes it through (although I barely see that). So, what's in my bracket at the moment? Ryu. Ryu did far too well last year to toss him aside in a match like this, and like it or not, The Dog will siphon joke votes away from L-Block, and even with such MIGHTY competitors as these two, there's only so many joke votes to go around. Ryu will take advantage of this en route to a win. I have L-Block trailing in second; while it's plausible that enough people would switch over to the new joke on the block, it seems like too big a unified effort. A bit too unrealistic. Sandbag owns them both, anyway.

My pick: Ryu > L-Block

- Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Diddy Kong vs. Kratos Aurion
I'm having a fair bit of trouble with this one. Alucard is the clear victor, but just who finishes in second, hrmmm? Individually, I'd likely take either Captain Falcon or Diddy Kong over Kratos Aurion. However, this isn't an individual poll, and the two Nintendo lightweights must cope with splitting the fanbase and its precious votes. That's bad enough when the characters start with a weak raw strength value, but these two have the added disadvantage of complete uncertainty. Which one is stronger? Who will the fanbase shift toward? The answer is shrouded in mystery that no one really cares about, and I'd venture a guess that both are about equal in their unimpressive-ness. It's so unclear that I may as well take Kratos, who has proven to be his series' most popular representative, and who is lucky enough to get such a favorable draw. Plus, he did pretty well against Midna last year.

My pick: Alucard > Kratos Aurion

- Arthas Menethil vs. Ike vs. Pikachu vs. Spy
Pikachu will almost certainly move on, so I won't torment myself with a long write-up. Last year, Arthas did well enough to make him a decent risk this time around, but... so did Ike, and Ike's got this new game since then. I think some of those Nintendo fans are into it. Even with the fairly wide fanbase split, I don't see Arthas breaking up this fanboy party.

My pick: Pikachu > Ike *washes hands*

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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
voltch | Posted 8/22/2008 2:49:13 AM | message detail
oh boy,L-Block is the one thing that can make or break a bracket,i'm really not liking this.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/22/2008 2:53:34 AM | message detail
Oh my god Cecil is in the first match and could ADVANCE I ****ING LOVE YOU BACON!
~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2008 3:11:35 AM | message detail
I´m still in Portugal and I just quickly filled out the bracket, I´ll talk once I return tomorrow.

What are some interesting matches?
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__Smurf__ | Posted 8/22/2008 3:15:59 AM | message detail
As GTA characters go you'd be hard pushed to find anyone who liked Niko's character more than Tommy. Niko is just sort of there and not especially interesting and unless my group of friends are very out of the loop GTAIV disapointed a lot of people with its lack of invention.

It's hard to not pick Niko but I feel he's a bracket buster waiting to happen.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/22/2008 3:39:28 AM | message detail
Hey guys, whoever's running the guest predictors thing...


Can I do all Cecil matches? Please? I've been waiting since 2k5 for him to have a match he could compete in.


...Please? :(

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
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Ayvuir | Posted 8/22/2008 3:41:38 AM | message detail
Niko is an awful character, but the game might push him through. I have him going through in 2nd in both rounds.
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"No way... He just ate my hair!" - Zack (FFVII:Crisis Core)
nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/22/2008 3:45:47 AM | message detail
Is anybody else bothered by Liquid/Luigi/Bowser/Phoenix

I reckon without Phoenix the two Mario heavyweights should outmatch Liquid but with hium to take those couple extra votes I am really considering taking Liquid through past Bowser.
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Ugh.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/22/2008 3:46:26 AM | message detail
I have Liquid winning that match >_>

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/22/2008 4:11:14 AM | message detail
I think the only way that could happen is if there's a perfect 50/50 split between Bowser and Luigi and Phoenix gets a ton of votes like over 15% ish. Given Bowser fell 70/30 to Mario I don't think he'll stand up that much better to Luigi, maybe going 55/45 at best? Toad let Ryu ahead of Bowser last time round and Luigi's quite a lot stronger than Bowser and I'd assume that held in the SFF rankings as well.

Kinda picking numbers out my ass here.

Let's see how that falls putting Phoenix at 12% which sounds about right to me.

Luigi - 32%
Bowser - 26%
Liquid - 30%
Phoenix - 12%

That has Liquid going 70/30 with Nintendo which seems kinda low, so now rather than convincing myself I've just confused myself some more. I'm at least reasnably sure now that Bowser isn't making it which means Luigi/Mario/MMX/Liquid the next round for my bracket anyway. I don't fear the mudkipz enough to take it through.

I'm pushing MMX to just be a touch under Vincent so I think he should win it with Mario destroying Luigi enough to get him through Liquid. I hope.
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*Goes to change bracket again*
consolefreak | Posted 8/22/2008 4:16:30 AM | message detail
Wow you guys are really overrating Liquid.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2904
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2915

That'll be one big boost to get him to 30% against Luigi and Bowser. It's not happening.
greatone10 | Posted 8/22/2008 4:19:21 AM | message detail
I would bet on there being some overlap between Liquid and Chief though, with both being casual favorites and all. And it's not like there has been anything at all in the past few months to bring more Metal Gear fans to this site or anything.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/22/2008 4:21:49 AM | message detail
Chief and Liquid? Sorry, no. Different consoles, different genre, totally different audience. Metal Gear is not a casual series at all.
Xuxon | Posted 8/22/2008 4:22:12 AM | message detail
You have MMX beating Mario without both Bowser and Luigi there? That takes some guts.

Also Luigi in general isn't stronger than Bowser, it's just that Bowser seems particularly bad at 4-way matches.

One more thing - Phoenix got 11% against Mario Magus and Naked Snake. To think he'd only get 12% here is laughable.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/22/2008 4:22:29 AM | message detail
And don't act like I forgot about MGS4 when I mentioned the boost in my very post.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/22/2008 4:30:04 AM | message detail
I'd be absolutely shocked if Niko was weaker than CJ.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/22/2008 4:49:46 AM | message detail
Also Luigi in general isn't stronger than Bowser, it's just that Bowser seems particularly bad at 4-way matches.

I was relying on an SFF beatdown actually. That was giving the Mario votes 55/45 in favour of Luigi, when Mario got 70% of them. I think Bowser gets it worse than that.
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God knows how Luigi/Mario turns out.
Gaddswell | Posted 8/22/2008 5:35:56 AM | message detail
Sweet, the bracket's out.

Mega Man and Mega Man X? Well, this one looks interesting after the first round.
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Nominate Pikachu for the character battle!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2008 6:19:01 AM | message detail
For those expecting a SFF-beatdown within Luigi/Bowser, especially within Luigi's favor, here's two things:

1) Remember Bowser/Yoshi in 2k3 and Yoshi/Luigi in 2k4.
2) With pretty normal pics, Ganondorf beat Luigi by ~3% last year. It took giving Luigi a classic sprite and Ganon his terrible LoZ-sprite for Luigi to beat Ganon by ~1%. If Bowser's close to Ganon and can withstand SFF better than him like many of us think, watch out.

I agree with the sentiment that Bowser doesn't do too well in four-way matches, but considering the two things pointed out here, he may not need to be.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2008 8:25:29 AM | message detail
Agreed, Harriach. I still think Luigi will do better than Bowser, but not by much, and Liquid isn't coming close.

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Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 8:30:27 AM | message detail
Yeah, I have Luigi > Bowser for that match.

I had Luigi > Liquid at first, but now...meh. I'm not not confident in him.

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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
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