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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 556

jonthomson | Posted 8/21/2008 4:59:46 PM | message detail
btw i have a quick tipsy analysis thread up if people want to post and annoy
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 4:59:55 PM | message detail
I'd probably shoot myself, so I think I would. It'll sound like a bang.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 5:00:26 PM | message detail
captain falcon > ice climbers > nana

got that straight?

then add in a four-way format and...

uh oh.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 5:01:08 PM | message detail
Expecting Nana to go much over 10% is absurd.
Expecting Tifa to get SFFed below 10% is similarly absurd.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
Kratos_42 | Posted 8/21/2008 5:01:14 PM | message detail
Woo, I've been gone since the last contest. Bracket IN!
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It's not always easy to distinguish between existentialism and a bad mood.
Master Moltar | Posted 8/21/2008 5:02:00 PM | message detail
joke arguments for a joke contest

sorry that was quite blunt
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/21/2008 5:09:00 PM | message detail

Lopen (#020)
No Bellis? Looks like I won't be lurking the topic this year then!

Ouch. I feel so betrayed.



Damnit man, haven't you ever heard of a bluff before?
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http://backloggery.com/embok/sig.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 5:14:38 PM | message detail
I just remembered something.

A month or two ago, I was playing 4player Brawl with some buddies (team battles). I picked Ike, my teammate picked Marth, and in a slip of the tongue, I called our team "Mike and Arth."
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/21/2008 5:40:29 PM | message detail
A fascinating tale, and one that will surely be told for years to come.
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http://backloggery.com/embok/sig.gif
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/21/2008 5:42:33 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45016790

Since I put so much work into it, I'm posting it here.
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i got nuthin
Ed Bellis | Posted 8/21/2008 5:44:41 PM | message detail
analysis crew lacks crunk imo
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: UGH SHARP ELBOWS
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/21/2008 5:45:55 PM | message detail
We'll make our own crew
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Master Moltar | Posted 8/21/2008 5:48:05 PM | message detail
damn it ed i gave you unlimited guest power what more do you want

you even get the added bonus of not even having to write for half of this crap

the crew regs envy you
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
Seginustemple | Posted 8/21/2008 5:49:54 PM | message detail
The third match is interesting. I'm taking Duke>Kefka for the massive upset
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
Ed Bellis | Posted 8/21/2008 5:52:24 PM | message detail
time to break out the WHAT THE CRUNKTEST ANALYSIS again
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: UGH SHARP ELBOWS
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 5:53:44 PM | message detail
anybody expect much from Travis touchdown? i think Ness is going to be owned here.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/21/2008 5:54:20 PM | message detail
Awesome, Yo.


So, one thing I really want to point out: I saw discussion for Geno/Phoenix earlier. Ask yourself this first when thinking there...did Squall SFF Geno in 2k5? Probably a little, why not? Did Squall and/or Aeris SFF Geno last year? Again, probably a bit. I doubt much though...

...and look how he's ~7% behind Akuma, who lost to an SFF'd Aeris by ~2.5%. That's not setting a high standard of success; I know I would have picked Bomberman to do quite a bit better there if they switched places last year.

You could still argue that Geno was SFF'd by other Square stars pretty hard...but if you do that, think about what Bowser would do to him. If it's still close, people will rally for Phoenix too. Geno showed me last year that he's not on Bomberman's level, he's in some danger with Bowser in the poll, and he still better not let it get close.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 5:55:01 PM | message detail
The only thing I'm relatively confident about is Marth in first. He did well last year despite the DK split, and he's the only Nintendo character in the poll.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/21/2008 5:59:13 PM | message detail
I just remembered a funny thought I had when I first saw the bracket: though I'm glad to see Aeris out, it would have been completely worth seeing her return if she had Tifa's position.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
_Yonex_ | Posted 8/21/2008 5:59:58 PM | message detail
About the Guru prize. As Bacon said something about the My Games section and in fact, there might not be a nomination period, does that mean the winner gets to choose a different nomination for another upcoming contest?
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Guybrush, just make it past the first round for once! PLEEEEEEEEEEASE!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 6:00:53 PM | message detail
I'd probably choose a game and a character just in case.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/21/2008 6:15:45 PM | message detail
From my company topic:

M_e_g_a_6_4 (#011)
Also, 27.5 characters from Brawl, including an Ice Climber. Also, a former Melee member in Mewtwo, and a Brawl item in Sandbag.

Who's snubbed? Popo, Jigglypuff, R.O.B., Wolf, Peach [!], Pokemon Trainer (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard [!]), Toon Link, Mr. Game and Watch. Of those, Peach is the only one to have been in a contest before, unless you count Toon Link for 2k3. If you want to talk Melee, there's still Roy, Pichu, and Dr. Mario. Even bosses Ridley and Master Hand made it in the Villains Contest, though we could still use Crazy Hand and Tabuu.

Brawl, hell yeah.



If Brawl can get the majority of its cast in, it might be even stronger than we thought. Probably won't affect most matches, but I can see Nintendo pulling a few surprises.
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i got nuthin
Xuxon | Posted 8/21/2008 6:32:46 PM | message detail
Anyone seeing the possibility of Cloud > Link? Only realistic if Mario can make it, and Mario making it itself seems like an upset pick, but this is what I have for now.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
DpObliVion | Posted 8/21/2008 6:43:43 PM | message detail
Mario would likely be dealing with SFF from Link and Samus in the semifinal, making a very nice path for the fourth character in that match.


Printable Brackets (could possibly be added to the first page template?):

http://server3.uploadit.org/files/DpObliVion-cb7bracket1.jpg
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/DpObliVion-cb7bracket2.jpg

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
trannyscience | Posted 8/21/2008 6:45:26 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take nominating power - especially from this board - to mean a whole lot. I mean, we've got about five Tales characters. think about it.
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xyzzy
Yesmar | Posted 8/21/2008 6:50:29 PM | message detail
If Brawl can get the majority of its cast in, it might be even stronger than we thought. Probably won't affect most matches, but I can see Nintendo pulling a few surprises.

Not that I disagree with your sentiment, but Melee got over half its cast in 2003 as well.

Clearly, this is different due to the types of characters getting in, but it's not as if Melee and Kingdom Hearts haven't got huge amounts of their casts in as well.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
Janus5000 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:53:38 PM | message detail
What the BRACKET.

So, let's see...

I originally had Niko in second instead of Kefka/Duke, but reflecting upon how Kefka almost beat Tommy Vercetti, I dunno. Kefka should do well in this format.
Liquid Snake is a lucky bastard. I have Luigi bringing Bowser down, but I could see it the other way around.
I have no idea what to make of MMX, but I have him losing to Mario and Liquid.
Scorpion > Falco (for second)? I say yes, but I'm not sure.
Ryu > Meta Knight. The block might get second, but I can't see him pulling anything crazy this time.
Falcon/Diddy/Kratos makes my head hurt. I don't want to pick Kratos, but the other two will probably LFF each other pretty badly.
DK/Tails/Teedus is a good one. I'm thinking DK > Tidus though.
Mewtwo > Ness? That seems reasonable to me.
I remember one of Dante and Leon was stronger than the other one, but forgot which. <_< I think it was Dante though.
Magus has a clear-cut path - second in round 1 and a flattening at the hands of Auron. Yes, he sucks. No, I'm not putting any stock in Sandbag. I refuse.
I wanted to take Vincent > Mario for second, but... I couldn't. It's Mario.
I did, however, take Snake > Sephy for second. But that's probably not going to be too uncommon.
Link > Cloud > Snake > Mario in the finals.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 7:54:07 PM | message detail
Thanks, DP.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 8:08:10 PM | message detail
You guys are overblowing Luigi/Liquid/Bowser. Luigi does better in this format, sure, but Bowser is still probably more powerful one on one, and just compare these results.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2898&num=4

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2904&num=4

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
red sox 777 | Posted 8/21/2008 8:11:28 PM | message detail
Am I completely delusional to have Link > Zack in Link/Zack/Mario/Megaman X?
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"Fate has no forgiveness for those who dare stand against it."
~Chrono Cross Game Over Screen
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 8:12:29 PM | message detail
Well...if Zach is strong enough to beat Shadow, no one else in Division 1 is stopping him from getting that far. I have him losing in R2 to Shadow, but who knows.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
satai_delenn | Posted 8/21/2008 8:14:50 PM | message detail
I originally had Niko in second instead of Kefka/Duke, but reflecting upon how Kefka almost beat Tommy Vercetti, I dunno. Kefka should do well in this format.

I took Niko because I recalled what Marcus Fenix did to Kekfa last year. >_>

I have no idea what to make of MMX, but I have him losing to Mario and Liquid.

I've probably missed oodles of discussion about this already, but I've been treating X as though he were basically Mega Man. I don't know how many people will make that much of a distinction when they vote.

I remember one of Dante and Leon was stronger than the other one, but forgot which. <_< I think it was Dante though.

Dante's stronger, and as much as logic should probably have dictated taking Leon for second in Leon/Dante/Riku/someone (Ramza, I guess...?) I took Riku in order to stand by my arguments from last year involving DMC/RE weirdness.

Magus has a clear-cut path - second in round 1 and a flattening at the hands of Auron. Yes, he sucks. No, I'm not putting any stock in Sandbag. I refuse.

If Magus loses to a sandbag I think I might just give up on the world. >_>

And despite last year, I'm taking Crono over Vincent. Suck it, Vincent, CTDS hype...! >_> Probably wrong, but I can live with that.

Still working on the last few rounds.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
yoshifan823 | Posted 8/21/2008 8:20:47 PM | message detail
OK, I wrote up what I think of the bracket:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45014561

Notes:
Niko to Sweet 16!
Shepard to Round 2! (I have no faith in Magus)
Mewtwo to Round 3!
Yoshi to Sweet 16! (Squall gon' get SMASHED)
Olimar to Round 3!
No L-Block post Round 2!
Liquid to Sweet 16! (Bowser gon' get SMASHED)
Sub-Zero got hosed! (He's already lost to Auron and Sonic. Put him against someone else. God.)
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.
paraboxx | Posted 8/21/2008 8:22:11 PM | message detail
Karma doesn't know what he's missing!

Karma Hunter? Gone? What'd I miss?

just know if that Nana ends up upsetting Tifa

you people will never hear the end of it


I have never once supported the Ignore feature until this moment. (Pity I don't have it yet...)

Am I completely delusional to have Link > Zack in Link/Zack/Mario/Megaman X?

Well, I don't think so.

Then again, I (still) have Link > Zack in Link/Zack/Samus/Vincent.

So my opinion may not mean much at this point.
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 8:23:19 PM | message detail
A part of a conversation with Draco has revealed this to me:

I think we're all underestimating Cecil, here.

Think about it, with FFIV DS getting three FFIV characters in the bracket without any rally backing... if you're not sold on Zack, you might not want to take him for second just because "everyone else is a joke." Yeah, I know nominations don't mean anything... but this is independent of board 8, which speaks for me.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
Yesmar | Posted 8/21/2008 8:28:21 PM | message detail
Think about it, with FFIV DS getting three FFIV characters in the bracket without any rally backing... if you're not sold on Zack, you might not want to take him for second just because "everyone else is a joke." Yeah, I know nominations don't mean anything... but this is independent of board 8, which speaks for me.

I am really tempted to take Cecil, but more due to Zack possibly bombing than anything else. Cecil, Kain and Rydia (It's questionable on this last one) were all on the default suggested list, so it's possible that they got extra noms that way.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
paraboxx | Posted 8/21/2008 8:30:40 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, missed this one:

I just remembered a funny thought I had when I first saw the bracket: though I'm glad to see Aeris out, it would have been completely worth seeing her return if she had Tifa's position.

Ha, I hadn't thought of that. Agreed, definitely.

On that note, who would you say are the most notable snubs from past contests?
Besides Aeris, I'm thinking Yuna, Vercetti and every-SF-character-but-Ryu, myself.
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 8:35:24 PM | message detail
Rikku not coming back was a bummer too. Vergil (yeah he's not that strong so what) also. How does Nero get in before Vergil?

But yeah, I wasn't saying Cecil was going to be strong just that he might not be a total joke, enough to beat a weak Zack if you think he's going to be (I do)
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 8:35:32 PM | message detail
I'm well fed and raring to go, so let's get this started.

Yoblazer Predicts This Mess of a Bracket!

DIVISION 1

- Cecil Harvey vs. Jade Curtiss vs. Wario vs. Zack Fair
BRAWLFEARWario grabs the top spot here. I initially had Cecil in second before learning that Zack was from a FFVII spinoff. That might actually be enough to challenge the master waft-ster, but he's the only Nintendo character in a sea of RPG weaklings, and unless Zack's picture has Cloud and Sephiroth holding big "This guy's one of us!", I wouldn't worry about it.

My pick: Wario > Zack

- Link vs. Luke van Fabre vs. Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Zidane Tribal
Luke van Fabre
Luke VAN FABRE
Luke van faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaabre

My pick: Link > Shadow

- Duke Nukem vs. Kefka vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellis
My favorite early match of the contest so far, this one has so much potential, and the fact that it's made up of 100% legit characters is great. Firstly, let me say that I was a bit premature in writing off Niko Bellis. While I don't expect him to make any waves here, it certainly wouldn't be impossible. I am, however, expecting big waves from the other three. Duke/BRAWLFEARMarth/Kefka is an interchangeable hodgepodge of interchangeability that can, as I just stated twice, can go pretty interchangeably. At the moment, though, I'm putting my faith in BRAWLFEAR for the win. Marth did well last year despite much tougher competition and a fanbase split with DK. This time around, he's the only Nintendo guy in the mix (and he's a very likable one, at that). I feel confident that he'll take these hapless losers.

Dukem Nuke and Kefka is a far more curious affair; I really haven't a clue with these guys. My gut initially told me to go with Duke, but Kefka is the "thinking man's" pick. He should do better, but he was so disappointing last year, and Duke had an excellent first showing against Gordon and pre-BRAWLFEARIke. However, Duke did much worse in the next match, which featured stronger competition, which leads me to believe that he'll crumble when his opponents are tougher. So, are these opponents tough enough to do that? No one knows, and therein the beauty lies. I have put-up-yer-Dukes at the moment, but it's a coin flip.

My pick: Marth > Duke

- Altair vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs. Isaac vs. Lucario

Everyone knows Isaac doesn't count, so BRAWLFEARLucario is once again the only Nintendo character against a small group of questionable opponents. Actually, there's nothing questionable about two of them - Guybrush and Isaac will fail. Altair will look pretty good because the competition is so crap, but this is Lucario's poll. A cool Pokemon winning? Perish the thought!

My pick: Lucario > Altair
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
satai_delenn | Posted 8/21/2008 8:36:07 PM | message detail
I'd had that thought about the FFIV characters, but I took Zack anyway...I figured, FFVII is FFVII. Cecil might surprise, though.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
ZFS | Posted 8/21/2008 8:38:52 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
ZFS | Posted 8/21/2008 8:40:26 PM | message detail
Getting a bunch of characters in doesn't mean much. Tran mentioned it earlier - Tales has the same amount, if not more, than FFIV does. Its got representation because FFIVDS is fresh in people's minds; it doesn't hurt that getting into a contest these days isn't exactly the toughest thing to do.

Choosing between Zack and Cecil is a no brainer for me: one is FFVII, one is FFIV. Both had handheld games come out this year, too. It helps that we've seen Cecil in action - and it's not exactly inspiring.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 8:42:53 PM | message detail
Cecil got inexcusably humiliated (remember his badass picture?). As soon as I found out Zack had FFVII going for him, it was a done deal.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Ed Bellis | Posted 8/21/2008 8:44:09 PM | message detail
aww yeah niko bellis
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: UGH SHARP ELBOWS
transients | Posted 8/21/2008 8:44:10 PM | message detail
FF4 artwork doesn't even look like FF4. at least now he has a 3d picture that people will recognize..

http://www.gamefaqs.com/portable/ds/image/939425.html?gs=3

...oh.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
meisnewbie | Posted 8/21/2008 8:47:10 PM | message detail
LOOOOPPPPEEEEENNN get on AIM
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Eh? You Serious? Easy Mode? How Disgusting!
Only Elementary School Kids should play on Easy Mode.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 8/21/2008 8:48:35 PM | message detail
I get snubbed from the analysis crew again?

Looks like I'll have to settle for getting the point for every one of my Guest writeups again.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 8:48:37 PM | message detail
Looks like a winner to me!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 8:49:12 PM | message detail
I was referring, of course, to Cecil Harvey.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 8/21/2008 8:49:34 PM | message detail
What the

http://ui30.gamefaqs.com/2109/gfs_87468_1_7.jpg

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Kept you waiting, huh?
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