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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 555

Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 7:28:10 AM | message detail
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I dunno man.

Sephiroth seems to only be getting weaker, and he's done nothing to become stronger this year, while Snake has been steadily on the rise for the past few contests and was just in Brawl and MGS4 this year.

(You should have nominated Nana)
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 7:33:27 AM | message detail
four ways are horrible to go by.
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 7:34:20 AM | message detail
this would be easier if Sephiroth had been in a 1v1 match at least once in the past 3 years.

(You should have nominated Nana)
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 7:36:36 AM | message detail
well is there a reason why he'd drop at least severely even with Crisis Core? i can see Snake getting 47/48% at the highest but he needs some droppage to even have a close match.
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 7:38:46 AM | message detail
I dunno.

For some reason I can just really see the upset happening.

it's not like we're gonna see Clinkeroth in 1v1 matches ever again though so it doesn't matter >_>

(You should have nominated Nana)
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/21/2008 8:12:06 AM | message detail
How you can trust any Sephiroth related numbers when Cloud is in the poll with him I do not understand.

Snake needed Cloud to be there to barely edge out Sephiroth even with his Brawl boost, and due to the fact that 90% of the people who bought/played MGS4 were going to vote Snake anyways as fans of the series, I highly doubt it will boost him any if at all. Snake this year will be equal to, or perhaps marginally stronger than he was in 2006.
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MnMZero | Posted 8/21/2008 8:24:19 AM | message detail
and due to the fact that 90% of the people who bought/played MGS4 were going to vote Snake anyways as fans of the series

Oh lord, we're back to this type of argument again in this topic?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/21/2008 8:54:24 AM | message detail
Think about it, who else would pay $700 to play MGS4 other than diehard fans of the series, because we all know that it was basically the only reason to own a PS3
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
TRE Public Account | Posted 8/21/2008 9:12:28 AM | message detail
MGS4 has sold around 1.2 mil(not sure if this includes bundle or not) in the US. The PS3 has sold around 5.5mil. So we have 4.3 mil people who are diehard enough to buy a PS3 for MGS4 but not quite diehard enough to actually buy MGS4?
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voltch | Posted 8/21/2008 9:40:50 AM | message detail
why are people thinking Sephiroth is dropping when you have Crisis Core.

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H__RR____H | Posted 8/21/2008 10:01:57 AM | message detail
The fanbase is bound to expand and strengthen for Solid Snake by MGS4 alone. He got a respectable boost by proxy from MGS3...while Solid is actually in MGS4 (and playable for the first time since the first hour of MGS2) and MGS4 sold as much in its first month as MGS3 did to date. Throw in the growing sentiment that MGS4 is the best in the series and it's already beating GTA4 in our last semi-GotY-poll, and there's absolutely no reason to doubt that Solid Snake is going to boost from 2006...

...not to mention SSBB's release. I know the argument is that his hype already gave him most of the fans he'd get from being in the games...but seriously? Seriously? The hype may have done a lot for him, but he's been the most hyped guy in the biz since E3-2k6 and is now the guy with the most reason to boost from the two biggest games of the year, one of which is an entirely new demographic and both of which are arguably the definitive games on their respective systems. In fact, he's the reason WHY they got so hyped about the games in the first place -- sure, they could work without him, but who wasn't anxious to see old-Snake and/or how Snake played in a party-fighting game?

There's no respect for that? People think just acknowledging he's in upcoming games will hinder him making more fans when they release? This isn't Link where people think he can't grow any stronger since he's so strong (though Link most certainly can), nor is this Mario where people think he's been so public and played that almost nothing new can help him boost (though he certainly can boost too). This is Solid Snake, the current hit-maker and boundary-crosser. Those two games are going to be bringing in more people to GameFAQs than any other game, and he's a very large reason for it. The games sold very well, lived up to their high expectations, and he's enjoyable or better in both. Despite what the hype did for him, Solid isn't going to stop growing because the blockbusters are out.
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/21/2008 10:03:00 AM | message detail
Sephiroth shouldn't drop. I doubt Crisis Core does much/any for him, but at least it should ensure he stays about the same.
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Lobby Hero
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 10:14:00 AM | message detail
i think Snake beating Sephiroth or not depends on how big of a boost he gets from Smash fans after the game's released; there's no way MGS4 puts him from losing to Samus to beating Sephiroth.

the only way i can see him beating Sephiroth is if SSB's fanbase is so large that it puts him into another tier; similar to Falcon and Ness who arent exactly known by everybody.

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Explicit Contest is my lord.
H__RR____H | Posted 8/21/2008 10:20:42 AM | message detail
For what it's worth, people have been more excited about Solid Snake in SSBB than CF or Ness in...any game they've ever been in, really. He's also advertised on the back of the box, huge in the first trailer, and well-favored within the community. He's kind of a big deal...

...but despite that, I doubt the SSBB-influence will be that strong for him, especially if the FF7/MGS theory is true and applied in Sephiroth's favor. MGS4 will help narrow that gap for SSBB's influence, but...I mean, it could happen, but that's a long-shot I'm not willing to take -- I still think Mario would be better-suited to fight Sephiroth again before Solid, and Mario's not likely to beat Seph.
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Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 10:22:13 AM | message detail
honestly if the bracket's posted tonight and it involves Snake and Sephiroth meeting up, I'll probably go for the upset just because it'd be fun to brag about if I am right.

(You should have nominated Nana)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 10:23:31 AM | message detail
Snake beating Sephiroth in a traditional match? That just smacks of looking for a big upset where there clearly isn't one. I did the same thing in 2004 (Sephiroth > Cloud in the rematch, ya ya!), and I think it may have kept me from the Top 50.
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MnMZero | Posted 8/21/2008 10:23:51 AM | message detail
Think about it, who else would pay $700 to play MGS4 other than diehard fans of the series, because we all know that it was basically the only reason to own a PS3

Yeah, but you seem to be blatantly ignoring the fact that Snake is due for a boost for the simple fact that MGS4 brings Solid Snake fans to this site. It's not always about a character being liked more due to a game. The GameFAQs demographic shifts all the time. It's not like we have had the same pool of voters for 6 years and character's strengths all depend on whether they are liked less or more. Big games bring people to this site, period. So it doesn't matter whether MGS4 made people like Snake more (if so all the better). The game does it's job simply by bringing Snake fans to the site.

This is just like me getting blasted back whenever for saying Link was going to be as strong as ever due to a slew of Nintendo games being released, even though none of them were Zelda games. But come contest time, Link was strong as ever. Or like people saying that SMG could only help Mario, Bowser, and maybe Luigi, even though it was a Nintendo game bringing tons of Nintendo fans to the site. Character strength fluctuation isn't only based on if a character is liked more or not...

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ChronicYouth | Posted 8/21/2008 10:25:16 AM | message detail
Samus > Seph is still happening before Snake > Seph.

Believe.

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Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 10:25:24 AM | message detail
it's not like it'll be what keeps me from winning the contest, I'm terrible at this anyway

but I have picked some crazy upsets that no one here was expecting

Master Hand over Kuja and Pac Man over Revolver Ocelot being two

(You should have nominated Nana)
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ChronicYouth | Posted 8/21/2008 10:27:37 AM | message detail
It's not hard to pick upsets no one sees coming when you take upsets you have no business taking.

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can you dig it?
Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 10:28:40 AM | message detail
and I think you guys are underrating Snake's appearance in Brawl

SSB64 was already released before there ever was a character battle

we've never known a character battle without SSB influence, so I can see why we'd play it off as something little that doesn't matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of things

but honestly

you all know that if Ness wasn't in SSB he'd have the strength of Laharl.

(You should have nominated Nana)
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MnMZero | Posted 8/21/2008 10:29:14 AM | message detail
This isn't Link where people think he can't grow any stronger since he's so strong (though Link most certainly can), nor is this Mario where people think he's been so public and played that almost nothing new can help him boost (though he certainly can boost too).

Not meaning to single you out Har, but just wanted to add this to what I was saying. If there's a game or two that bring a significant amount of Nintendo fans (and by extension Mario and Link fans) to this site in relation to other characters, you'd better believe that they will boost. It's not that they are getting more popular, but simply having more people that already do like you on this site is basis for a contest strength increase.
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Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 10:32:08 AM | message detail
and MnMZero is completely correct.

(You should have nominated Nana)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 10:38:29 AM | message detail
For the record, I do think this will be Snake's biggest year in terms of raw strength. He's the Brawl character, and MGS4 has been very well received, has sold well, and has seemingly managed to bring some new fans to the table. In addition to those goodies, he's got the intangibles going for him. When we started this thing in 2002, Solid Snake was one of the Noble 9's most niche characters. Now, he's spanned multiple consoles and handhelds. Metal Gear jokes are common internet lexicon. Even comparatively unimportant things like Metal Gear Awesome have grown huge. The guy just feels... bigger, or something.

I'd take him over Samus. I'd take him over Mario provided I'm feeling fanboyish enough, but the gap between Mario and Sephiroth is simply too wide. Sephiroth is the guy who defeated Mario very easily in the plumber's biggest year, and there's no logical reason to assume he's fallen off. It's an upset in the clouds, guys.
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/21/2008 10:39:20 AM | message detail
No offense taken, and I agree with you -- that's why I mentioned in parentheses that they most certainly can get stronger still. I was just using some common perceptions to show Solid doesn't fit into those categories, so even if one was to buy into those ideas they couldn't apply them to Solid.
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MnMZero | Posted 8/21/2008 10:45:41 AM | message detail
Although what I just said makes me wonder what this site and the contests would be if the demographic were constant and everyone was Heroic Mario where who you like at the time all depends on what games you are playing and whether said games makes you like a character more or less!
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MnMZero | Posted 8/21/2008 10:48:54 AM | message detail
I really do need to play Brawl. I've barely touched it since the week I opened it and beat SSE. I have yet to know which characters I like to play with, let alone knowing who is supposedly top tier and not. At least with Melee I was able to keep up with the Joes of the world in SSB knowledge. With Brawl I'm not even trying.
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/21/2008 10:55:52 AM | message detail
This is gonna be an odd question, but for kicks: would Solid Snake SFF Ness?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 10:57:37 AM | message detail
Snake's broken, but that's only part of the reason I consider him Brawl's top character. He's damn fun to use and is arguably the most uniquely played character in the whole series. He also has more effort crammed into him than any other character. He's got his own level and the awesome play-style (which must have taken some time to implement), sure, but he also has TONS of dialogue. Provided you're playing on the MGS level, you can opt to start a codec call between Snake and various members of his support team. Snake asks about whomever he happens to be fighting, and the calls are universally hilarious.

It has long been argued that their mere presence in Smash can garner outside interest for guys like Marth or Ness. That being the case, it must be doubly so for a guy like Snake, who's about ten times as awesome in the game.
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voltch | Posted 8/21/2008 11:02:26 AM | message detail
the thing about Snake is if he goes against Mario then we argue that his brawl support is taken away by the mickey mouse of videogames and if goes up against sephiroth then we have the whole FFVII/MGS SFF debate.

if only Crono was of equal strength to Mario then we'd get a proper match without any SFF of such assumed proportions.
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red sox 777 | Posted 8/21/2008 11:20:34 AM | message detail
Next year, Crono will have a huge range of possible strengths.....CTDS can potentially do more for him than Kingdom Hearts did for Cloud and Sephiroth- it's not as big a game, certainly, but Cloud/Seph had a lot more exposure prior to KH than Crono does now. Another thing is that CT was never released in Europe, so the European release may help Crono tremendously. Assuming Europe makes up 18% of voters (I think that is in line with past polls of the day about it), casts no votes for Crono, and votes at the same rate as the rest of the site, Crono has to win with roughly 61% outside Europe just to reach 50%. I realize the latter two assumptions there are absurd, but it does illustrate nicely how much potential CTDS has.
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voltch | Posted 8/21/2008 11:24:25 AM | message detail
let's say 50% of those european guys(like me) have already played CT(with roms,JPN version in Japan or US version in the US),then that leave what 9% of EU GFaqs users who have no reason to vote for Crono,so an average Crono match has how many votals?

So at best how many votes does he gain and how much % does that make him boost by?
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/21/2008 11:30:41 AM | message detail
To comment on Sephiroth dropping... I think part of the reason Sephiroth did so poorly in relation Cloud last year was because lots of voters saw Link/Cloud/Samus/Sephiroth as Link vs. Cloud. (I don't think Sephy dropped at all) In fact, maybe that sort of logic was a large part of why the Battle Royale back in 2K6 was so messed up. Think about it: why else would Mario fail to gain on Day 2 on the BR, and Sephiroth would drop? Both Link and Cloud boosted due to their rivalry. Sephiroth and Snake gained more than expected on day 3 because Snake/Sephiroth was heated... which in turn allowed Link to gain even more than expected on Cloud that day due to the Link/Cloud rivalry, as Sephiroth was stealing votes from Cloud. All just theories, though.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 11:44:24 AM | message detail
I like to view 2007 as a year off, but even if we were to discuss the results seriously, Sephiroth only had one poor showing, and that was when Cloud shared the poll. Prior to that, he easily beat Mario (by nearly 11%) before destroying Vincent.
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jonthomson | Posted 8/21/2008 12:09:47 PM | message detail
and I think you guys are underrating Snake's appearance in Brawl

SSB64 was already released before there ever was a character battle


new and exciting question - what would the top 10 characters look like 10 years ago? no ssb, mgs isn't quite out yet, ff7 is very recent...

could make it pre-ff7 to be even more interesting
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2008 12:17:35 PM | message detail
Solid Snake was one of the Noble 9's most niche characters.

I wouldn't say THAT. Stealth action was niche on GameFAQs perhaps, but Snake was more mainstream overall than Crono, Mega Man, or Samus, and arguably as much as Cloud or Sephy. I guess it's just a matter of perspective though.

Also, stop arguing 4 way matches! We'll make Bacon think we want another 4 way contest!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 12:20:32 PM | message detail
He was more mainstream than Chrono, but I wouldn't agree with the other four, at least not on this site. Samus had already starred in Smash 64 and Melee by then (although, yeah, Prime was still a few months away).
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 12:21:09 PM | message detail
Crono is so niche, I still can't spell his name correctly!
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voltch | Posted 8/21/2008 12:22:17 PM | message detail
one v one with 8man divisions please.
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Yesmar | Posted 8/21/2008 12:26:30 PM | message detail
what would the top 10 characters look like 10 years ago?

Based on where they would be on BL.

1. Sephiroth: 49.00
2. Cloud: 48.75

3. Mario: 46.04
4. Sonic: 44.66
5. Mega Man: 42.30

6. Link: 38.72

8. Ryu: 35.42
9. Zero: 34.99
10. Crono: 34.15


*Assuming that you mean exactly ten years ago, meaning that MGS would have just been released
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Yesmar | Posted 8/21/2008 12:27:48 PM | message detail
Ignore my little asterisk. I originally had Snake on there because I had Metal Gear Solid's release date wrong.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 12:28:41 PM | message detail
Actually, MGS would be two months away from release exactly ten years ago. Snake would lose to Johnny Cage!
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Nominate Darth Revan for the GameFAQs Character Battle VII
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2008 12:32:55 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid was a smash hit, you'll recall, so Snake is only niche in the sense that stealth action is not a big genre on this site. Mega Man was never that mainstream, and Samus wasn't really until Prime. Just because Samus was in two Smash Bros. games doesn't make her less niche because she hadn't been in a game for years before then. That's like saying Ness is less niche than Snake, which is just wrong.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 12:33:50 PM | message detail
Looking at the the B8 list, there are a ton of joke noms. Absolutely none of them barring 2 or 3 have any chance of getting in.

Doesn't effect anything, really, but it's amusing to see how many people are playing Follow the Leader with L-Block without thinking it through all the way.

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Malakuko | Posted 8/21/2008 12:34:47 PM | message detail
and who would you say those 2 or 3 are?

(You should have nominated Nana)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 12:35:51 PM | message detail
I think it's less a case of people thinking they can catch lightning twice and more a case of people not caring as much about this contest.

BEST. GAME. EVER.
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Nominate Darth Revan for the GameFAQs Character Battle VII
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2008 12:36:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, Board 8 is usually big on joke characters, but it's absolutely ridiculous how many bad joke character rallies there are this year.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 12:36:57 PM | message detail
I'll believe those people don't care about the contests when they stop participating in them.

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voltch | Posted 8/21/2008 12:37:31 PM | message detail
ya know,I still can't believe that outside of Gamefaqs everywhere I go the names Cloud and Sephiroth mean nothing to well anyone I know who plays videogames,FF is hated for being turn based and the most popular thing gaming related in Inter Milan on PES.

It amazes how popular FFVII is worldwide,kinda like how some music bands are infamous in some countries but virtually ignored in others,kinda like Take That.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 12:39:56 PM | message detail
You don't think people aren't as revved up as usual? When this contest was announced, it definitely felt like a mixed blessing. We finally had a contest, but it wasn't what we really wanted.

Heck, I wrapped up my 15 by nominating Link and Snake. Link and Snake, man!
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Nominate Darth Revan for the GameFAQs Character Battle VII
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