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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 555

Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:01:40 PM | message detail
Err, the only reason Niko has a chance is because of this format.

Taking a look at last year, characters with franchises mainly on Sony/Microsoft consoles (Master Shief, Ryu Hayabusa, Dante, Snake for examples) did a lot better then previous years because of the format. Niko is a character that will do better because of this format - because his core fanbase is going to vote for him over the nintendo characters of Marth and Kefka. Plus, Vercetti beat Kefka in 2k6, and Kefka has only gotten weaker since then. And personally, I'd take Niko over 2k6 Vercetti (GTA4 is more popular here now then Vice City ever was).

Marth > Niko isn't an upset pick at all. Statistically, Niko has everything going for him.

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 4:02:23 PM | message detail
What I'm saying is Mudkip shouldn't be considered static because part of his fanbase is legitimate, not a fad. Put MMX and Mario in there he will go below 20%.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/21/2008 4:02:29 PM | message detail
GTA4 is more popular here now then Vice City ever was

Prove it. I've seen people say this but there is NO proof GTA4 is more popular here than SA or VC.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Just like Explicit Content is better than me for winning the Guru contest.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:02:40 PM | message detail
And how many people here genuinely think L-Block's going to fall early as opposed to the people who are saying L-Block will fall merely because they want him to? Definitely a possibility but I'd advise you guys to think it over a bit rather than just go for what you want. You don't see me having Luigi > Mario in the finals, after all!

Also, anyone else crazy enough to consider doing L-Block > Cloud just so you're guaranteed to get points? Granted, you'll still lose a ton for missing the other one, but hell, someone may want to try it.
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i got nuthin
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/21/2008 4:02:53 PM | message detail
well, gta4 is the best selling in first month and highest rated gta game
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NoobPwn3rBillio - "When has anyone ever called you a 360 fanboy."
paraboxx | Posted 8/21/2008 4:03:04 PM | message detail
his game isnt bigger than FF6

*chokes despite not eating/drinking anything*
Yesmar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:03:07 PM | message detail
Niko is being vastly overrated by you all. He's CJ all over again

He wouldn't need to be much better than that to make the Quarterfinals. Ness actually has decent strength; he's just been behind so much SFF we've never seen it. CJ was probably a little above the fodder line, which is all Niko needs to make it past the first two rounds. If Crono's dropped like a rock, Kefka probably has too, and it's not like anyone else in Div. 1 save Link and Shadow is more than barely above the fodder line anyway.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/21/2008 4:04:12 PM | message detail
Niko I could see as a tiny bit weaker version of Master Chief. He'll have the Sony/Microsoft support backing him, and will do very well in this format.
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NoobPwn3rBillio - "When has anyone ever called you a 360 fanboy."
MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/21/2008 4:04:35 PM | message detail
well, gta4 is the best selling in first month and highest rated gta game

Look anywhere on the internet. A lot of GTA fanboys think GTA4 is overrated and VC/SA are better games. And GTA4 sold better in it's first month but it's already dropping like a brick. It has no real legs like past GTA's.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Just like Explicit Content is better than me for winning the Guru contest.
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 4:05:11 PM | message detail
Niko I could see as a tiny bit weaker version of Master Chief

HA HA HA HA what.

Get out of here. Seriously. Get out of the topic.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:06:40 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto IV
GameFAQs Rating Average
8.8
From 2845 users

Grand Theft Auto Vice City
GameFAQs Rating Average
8.6
From 393 users

That seals the deal imo

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:07:09 PM | message detail
Because Mario and X are both Noble Nine (or close enough). People vote for the Noble Nine.

Mudkip's strength may be no joke (har har har), but he's got some serious competition in the second round; that's too early for the bandwagon to kick in. L-Block lost to Kratos in the second round and only managed to advance because Kirby and DK LFF'd themselves to death. Mario and X aren't going to blow themselves up that badly.
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Mustache...and green...
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:08:29 PM | message detail
Taking a look at last year, characters with franchises mainly on Sony/Microsoft consoles (Master Shief, Ryu Hayabusa, Dante, Snake for examples)

your logic falls apart here. them being sony/micro characters is simply a coincidence. why cant you explain vercetti himself?

*chokes despite not eating/drinking anything*

what? you'd take GTA4 over FF6?

well i guess i'll just agree to disagree. i see no reason why if VC definitely wouldn't beat it. it nearly beat the second strongest Zelda game.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:08:59 PM | message detail
From 393 users

you've sealed nothing with this kind of population.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:10:07 PM | message detail
Exactly!

If only 393 people care enough to vote it's obviously not that popular

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
paraboxx | Posted 8/21/2008 4:11:03 PM | message detail
what? you'd take GTA4 over FF6?

Yes.

...well, maybe not here. It did really damn well in the Games Contest - better than I'd have thought it would. But that was five years ago (four?). CT's fallen like a rock, FF6 probably has too, and the only reason we don't know for sure is Kefka was never Crono anyway. (Or Magus, or even Frog.)
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:12:11 PM | message detail
If only 393 people care enough to vote it's obviously not that popular

Super Mario Bros. 3
GameFAQs Rating Average
9.3
From 271 users
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Mustache...and green...
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:12:35 PM | message detail

your logic falls apart here. them being sony/micro characters is simply a coincidence. why cant you explain vercetti himself?


Err no, it's because they're sony/micro characters that they do better in this format. When they're from underrepresented companies (in NintendoFAQs anyway), their fans will flock (and vote) together, no matter who their opponent is (which usually happens to be a bunch of nintendo characters). This is less noticable in 1v1 because it takes so many more votes to win, but in 4 way FFAs, the group of people flocking together is still as large as always but their votes matter more because it will take less votes for their character to win.

See what I'm getting at?

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
---
Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:12:48 PM | message detail
RPGuy I wasn't being serious btw <_<;

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 8/21/2008 4:12:56 PM | message detail

Mudkip's strength may be no joke (har har har), but he's got some serious competition in the second round; that's too early for the bandwagon to kick in. L-Block lost to Kratos in the second round and only managed to advance because Kirby and DK LFF'd themselves to death. Mario and X aren't going to blow themselves up that badly.

Luigi and Ganondorf split really evenly - Mario and MMX won't. that's a bit more one-sided, if Link is any hint. Mudkip was round 2 last year and he held that lead for a good 12 hours.

Mudkip pulled 25% last year - curious, how are you expecting this to split? let's say he gets 23%.. Mario gets 40-ish, Knuckles gets 10-15 (let's say 12) and that leaves 25 for MMX. that's pretty damn close. the key here is Knuckles being the fourth, a guy with legit midcarder strength to suck more votes from Mario and MMX.
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:13:11 PM | message detail
Actually, this is even better.

Chrono Trigger
GameFAQs Rating Average
9.4
From 397 users
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Mustache...and green...
paraboxx | Posted 8/21/2008 4:13:26 PM | message detail
...actually, speaking of CT, maybe we'll see some resurgence for it with this contest thanks to CTDS.

Probably not, but it's worth thinking about. (Or clinging to like a liferaft, for us Magus fans.)
trannyscience | Posted 8/21/2008 4:14:13 PM | message detail
the game of the contest is MM9. let's see a release date, Capcom.
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xyzzy
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:14:14 PM | message detail
CTDS isn't even out yet :/

In 2K9 the characters will get a boost from it, but meh

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
---
Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/21/2008 4:15:43 PM | message detail
Stingers, this contest won't end till mid December, and Chrono Trigger DS is coming out November 25th... It will help Crono in the final rounds.
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NoobPwn3rBillio - "When has anyone ever called you a 360 fanboy."
ZFS | Posted 8/21/2008 4:15:49 PM | message detail
Not sure where MM9 could come into play this contest. Mega Man's got a pretty cut and dry path.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/21/2008 4:17:42 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#475)
Stingers, this contest won't end till mid December



uh
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 4:18:41 PM | message detail
Assuming it starts in mid-September, it will end in mid-November. Isn't that when CTDS is coming out?
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 8/21/2008 4:19:31 PM | message detail
CTDS is late November. Comes out the 25th.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
Iubaris | Posted 8/21/2008 4:19:48 PM | message detail
MyWorldIsCrono (#475)
Stingers, this contest won't end till mid December, and Chrono Trigger DS is coming out November 25th... It will help Crono in the final rounds.

It ends approx November 16th.
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It's iubaris, not Lubaris.
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:20:36 PM | message detail
Hmm..

When does the second match of the quarterfinals happen? That could be big, since that's when we (most people) have Samus/Vincent/Crono/Ryu (SF)

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/21/2008 4:20:38 PM | message detail
Oh, I saw the thing saying that a winner will be decided on december 20th or something, so I assumed that was about the time it ended. Guess CT:DS probably wouldn't help that much, then
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NoobPwn3rBillio - "When has anyone ever called you a 360 fanboy."
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:21:00 PM | message detail
Oh wait, it won't be out by then?

Nvm :/ darn

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
---
Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:21:14 PM | message detail
I don't think Mudkip pulls 23% in a second round match with a Noble Niner and a Noble Nine proxy. For as much as I talk up Mario I don't think he's getting 40% there either - it's hard to break 40% and the competition is just too good there. It'll be way closer than it should be but it'll still be a comfortable win for X.

And Luigi and Ganondorf had some of the most severe LFF in the contest (MC annihilated them in the next round) and Luigi ended up winning by over 3%. That wasn't really as close as you might remember it.
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Mustache...and green...
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:21:37 PM | message detail

Err no, it's because they're sony/micro characters that they do better in this format. When they're from underrepresented companies (in NintendoFAQs anyway), their fans will flock (and vote) together, no matter who their opponent is (which usually happens to be a bunch of nintendo characters). This is less noticable in 1v1 because it takes so many more votes to win, but in 4 way FFAs, the group of people flocking together is still as large as always but their votes matter more because it will take less votes for their character to win.

See what I'm getting at?


no. i dont see where you're getting at.

1) you're avoiding vercetti like the plague.

2) you're also avoiding ratchet, jak, etc. just because it's sony doesnt mean they automatically have a huge hardcore fanbase. sony fans aren't exactly that adherent as you can see with 360 >>>>>>>> PS3.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 4:22:52 PM | message detail
Mudkip pulled 25% last year - curious, how are you expecting this to split? let's say he gets 23%

Because his fanbase is part legitimate I expect Mudkip to go well below 20%. Honestly, you can't say he'll stay around 23% EVEN IF his vote base is all joke... look at what happened to Bidoof. This is arguably almost as strong a group as what Bidoof faced in round 2 last year. (Knux > SFF'd Zelda Mario + MMX are slightly less than LFFed Link + Vincent)

Mario 40%
MMX 25%
Mudkip 18%
Knuckles 17%


Not saying it goes down like this but with something like that there is lots of breathing room for MMX.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/21/2008 4:23:59 PM | message detail
Y/N: Ariel could beat some of the characters in this bracket.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:24:03 PM | message detail
1) you're avoiding vercetti like the plague.

There's no saving whats already dead. By 2k7 Vercetti's game was 5 years old. For a game like GTA, of course he would be weak. I'm talking about characters with active fanbases (such as Niko Bellic's!)

2) you're also avoiding ratchet, jak, etc.

because who cares about ratchet and jak? lolz

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 4:27:54 PM | message detail
Let me ask you guys this:

When has Kefka ever won a debated match since the Pac-man match?

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:27:59 PM | message detail
There's no saving whats already dead. By 2k7 Vercetti's game was 5 years old. For a game like GTA, of course he would be weak. I'm talking about characters with active fanbases (such as Niko Bellic's!)

Kefka has a larger active fanbase for the simple fact that there's a higher chance of someone liking both Kefk and FF6 than the contrary.

i honestly dont understand why niko would have a hardcore fanbase all of the sudden while vercetti only sucked due to having a 5-year-old game. doesnt that tell you something? GTA characters arent cared about that much; Kefka's in a game over a decade years old and he's already giving this guy a match.

because who cares about ratchet and jak? lolz

same could be said about Niki, honestly.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:28:21 PM | message detail
When has Kefka ever won a debated match since the Pac-man match?

dumb reasoning.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:30:17 PM | message detail
It's not like GTA has a particularly storied contest history, either.
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Mustache...and green...
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/21/2008 4:31:19 PM | message detail
Niko is at very least Tommy Vercetii after Vice City released level.
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NoobPwn3rBillio - "When has anyone ever called you a 360 fanboy."
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2008 4:31:47 PM | message detail
True, just saying it's funny how Kefka consistently burns everyone yet never stops being the favorite to advance in the debated match he ends up losing.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:31:52 PM | message detail
Dranze have you ever even played GTA4? He's got a solid, active, and most importantly, huge fanbase that will vote for him over Kefka and Marth and Duke Nukem.

You're like equating him to 2k5 Wesker or some other horrendous fodder

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
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Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/21/2008 4:33:28 PM | message detail
Yeah Niko is gonna actually make the GTA Series look good again
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Lopen | Posted 8/21/2008 4:35:11 PM | message detail
Looking at CJ I'd say that's hardly the case that Niko is necessarily going to be as strong as post release Vercetti.

Yeah okay CJ had many reasons to appear weaker than he was. I'm just saying that you can't expect GTA characters to be linear. GTA4's supposed "backlash" I've been hearing about combined with Tommy Vercetti's laughable showing last year is more than enough for me to bet against Niko with confidence.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Nominate Raiden!: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44772404
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/21/2008 4:35:46 PM | message detail
i don't even see why he'd be stronger than vercetti in a traditional format. i think most of us would take a mafia guy over some russian runaway.

You're like equating him to 2k5 Wesker or some other horrendous fodder

having him lose to characters with actual fanbases that work in these formats isnt horrendous fodder at all.

it's just GTA characters not having hardcore fanbases.

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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Pyrostormer | Posted 8/21/2008 4:37:23 PM | message detail
GTA characters have hardcore fanbases...after release XD

Luckily for Niko his game was recently released.

I just can't see Kefka beating him out here.

~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~
---
Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/21/2008 4:37:26 PM | message detail
L-Block > Pikachu > Crono BELIEVE
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i got nuthin
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