GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 554
| consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 5:19:57 PM | message detail |
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instinctively* --- Nominate Red XIII for Character Battle VII! http://uk.geocities.com/blissful_absolution/assignment4/images/redxiiiimage.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/13/2008 6:14:07 PM | message detail |
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Just going through some lolxstats and: Mega Man (2005c) VS Mario (2005c) Mega Man has a strength of 38.79. Mario has a strength of 43.20. Mario wins with 55.10% of the vote! A win of 11,234 with 110,047 total votes cast. Compare with http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2560 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2557 2k6 Snake was already roughly equal with Mario. So we can draw one of several conclusions: 1) Mega Man and Sonic both dropped noticably from 2005 to 2006- This has been thrown around alot, but it doesn't really agree with the rest of what we saw in 2006, and some of the 2006 stuff that was validated in 2007 (Mega Man/Ryu being legit and the anomaly lying in Bowser/Ryu 2k5) 2) Snake was indirectly stronger or equal to Mario in 2006- This doesn't sit well with me for obvious Samus > Mario reasons. Maybe she did more damage then we thought in those finals. Although there is one other stat that helps this theory: Squall (2005c) VS Mario (2005c) Squall has a strength of 35.16. Mario has a strength of 43.20. Mario wins with 59.31% of the vote! A win of 20,114 with 108,077 total votes cast. Considering the 2006 match between Snake and Squall (and assuming no SFF), this implies a nice little 2% boost from KH2, which doesn't seem too unreasonable. This also implies that Vincent got a similar sized boost from Advent Children/Dirge of Cerberus which also makes sense. Also helps explain the Vinny/Ganondorf match. This basically confirms major shenanigans in the Snake/Yoshi match, either from Brawl wonkiness, or Solid **** in action. 3) lol xstats So what can we draw from this? Well, this is essentially Samus > Mario 2.0, except the argument has a little merit due to MGS4 coming out. Personally, I have to err on the side of "It's freaking MARIO", but there is an outside chance that he could pull it off. All of this talk about 2006 is really making me wonder what the hell happened to Sonic last year. Squalls performance on him isn't too out of place, until you take into consideration that Sora was in the poll with them. I'm convinced that had that been any other character, we would have had 2 Noble Nine upsets last year from the 2 strongest NNers. God I want a Vincent/Squall rematch and a Mega Man/Sonic rematch. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| smitelf | Posted 8/13/2008 6:18:54 PM | message detail |
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OMG, what did I miss?!? --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/13/2008 6:27:09 PM | message detail |
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Snake/Mario talk, and defining SFF. --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 6:28:27 PM | message detail |
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i'm not even going to bother turtle with a reply. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| jonthomson | Posted 8/13/2008 6:34:26 PM | message detail |
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don't know if any of you are big nfl geeks, but there's this website
called beatpaths which looks purely at wins and losses between teams
and tries to make pretty graphs out of them to show who's better than
who. thought i'd apply it to the noble nine from the last three 1v1
contests, and it makes a very, very pretty graph: link>cloud>sephiroth>mario>samus>snake>sonic>crono>mega man isn't that convenient! every conflicting thing cancelled out to a lovely straight line. if someone wants to do me a big favour and post me a list of every character that's appeared in 2004 onwards in at least two matches (can include the villains contest which i obviously ignored for the purposes of this, on the rad action pack board imo), i'll make a pretty graph of everyone as i literally have too much time on my hands. --- Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179 Obama '08 imo |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/13/2008 6:34:47 PM | message detail |
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Also, I can't really see Mario increasing too much from 2005. He really
can't go much higher. Everyone already knows him and his 2 big releases
have been out for 6 months and a year already. The only way we'll see
Mario get any bigger is if he has a match at or around a major release. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 6:40:22 PM | message detail |
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that's pretty much what we said before Super Mario 64 DS. and that was a remake. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 6:40:53 PM | message detail |
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Well, this is essentially Samus > Mario 2.0 what --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/13/2008 6:50:10 PM | message detail |
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Also, I can't really see Mario increasing too much from 2005. He
really can't go much higher. Everyone already knows him and his 2 big
releases have been out for 6 months and a year already. The only way
we'll see Mario get any bigger is if he has a match at or around a
major release. So because his big releases are already out they don't count for anything? As soon as we finish this contest FFVII remake is announced and released the year after. We have a games contest next year so we don't have another contest for a year after the release, that must mean that Cloud and Sephy won't benefit at all. Do you realise how stupid you sound yet? --- ? |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 6:51:26 PM | message detail |
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I remember when we said that before the 2005 contest. "where can Mario go?" ha ha ha. --- xyzzy nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 6:58:58 PM | message detail |
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At this point Mario > Sephiroth is sounding more likely than Snake > Mario. And there's no way in hell I'd choose the former. --- i got nuthin |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 6:59:54 PM | message detail |
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In no way, shape or form is Mario > Sephiroth more likely than Snake > Mario. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:01:58 PM | message detail |
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Mario and Snake both boosted while Sephiroth hasn't had any real reason
to boost that I know of. Snake's gonna have a harder time catching up
to a moving target than Mario will catching up to a sitting duck. I wouldn't take either upset, granted. --- i got nuthin |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 7:02:48 PM | message detail |
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Crisis Core, yo. Sephiroth's pretty huge in that. --- xyzzy nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:05:01 PM | message detail |
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Ah. Nevermind, then. --- i got nuthin |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 7:06:53 PM | message detail |
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Cloud's got a nice role in it too. I wonder if we'll hook anyone into taking Cloud > Link because of it. --- xyzzy nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/13/2008 7:07:27 PM | message detail |
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i literally have too much time on my hands. I find this funny given the Zhuge post I just read on the MBH secret board. ~*ST*~ --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 7:07:41 PM | message detail |
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Considering Snake's been making ground for a couple of years now, with
all the more reason to receive a larger boost than Mario, I wouldn't
say Mario's chances of upsetting Sephiroth are better than his chances
of losing to Snake. Snake over Mario isn't a stretch pick by any means, and shouldn't be categorized as such. Mario would undoubtedly be the favorite on the board, but Snake's chances of winning there aren't bad at all. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 7:11:52 PM | message detail |
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I don't know about anyone boosting from Crisis Core, but it can't hurt. Wonder how Zack would do if he gets in. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:12:27 PM | message detail |
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I don't know. It's a large gap to begin with, and even with Brawl hype
Snake couldn't beat Samus. And then Samus outdid Snake in a 4v4 setting
a year later despite Snake having his own support whereas Samus had
Link... Right now, I'm still not 100% confident Snake could even beat Samus. MGS4 might make him even with her, and considering Mario also has solid reason to boost... Right now, I'd be choosing Samus over Snake. --- i got nuthin |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 7:13:44 PM | message detail |
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He really can't go much higher. Last I checked, Mario wasn't the strongest character on GameFAQs, so he has space to move up, I'd figure. --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:16:15 PM | message detail |
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Question, of that 7% gap between Mario and Snake in 2005, how much would all of you say he made up in 2006? Because even if MGS4 outdoes Galaxy in boosts, it may still not be enough to cover the amount needed for Snake to win. Plus Mario being in Brawl and all could cut into Snake's support. Could it be argued that Snake's more Nintendoized now? --- i got nuthin |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 7:17:52 PM | message detail |
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uhh, i figure he would have gotten 46/47% on Mario in 2006 excluding any weird stuff. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 7:19:49 PM | message detail |
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Samus over Snake is crazy to me. The deficit between those two gets
exaggerated too much - it was 53 / 47 match. He wouldn't have needed
much to turn that around the year following the match. Brawl releasing
alone should
be enough to negate any sort of loss of support he might have suffered
there. Adding MGS4 into that puts it squarely in Snake's favor. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/13/2008 7:23:42 PM | message detail |
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Mario would beat Snake with 55% or more in a one on one match this
year. He couldn't even get 47% on Samus in 2006. Anybody that thinks
MGS4/Playable Brawl will boost him over Mario is insane. --- Demyx is better than Axel. Just like Explicit Content is better than me for winning the Guru contest. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 7:25:01 PM | message detail |
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For the record, Mario turned a 53/47 loss to Crono into a 53/47 win within the span of a year. It's doable. --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 7:26:29 PM | message detail |
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55% or more? MGS4 and Brawl combined amount to 2%? --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:27:11 PM | message detail |
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ZFS (#275) Snake would benefit more from Brawl, but I don't think it alone would be enough to push Snake over Samus considering Samus is in the game as well. Definitely make it closer, but not Snake-favored. And Samus somehow showed a lot of strength in a format that really was disadvantageous to her. She also appeared to have a boost from Corruption of all things. I think you may be underestimating Samus here. She's as resilient as ever and is actually growing stronger herself. With the gap and Snake likely already receiving the brunt of his Brawl boost pre-game, and I don't really find it that unlikely that Samus could beat him again (at a closer margin, but a win nonetheless). --- i got nuthin |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 7:27:24 PM | message detail |
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You must think an awful lot of a Galaxy boost for Mario if you don't think Snake can improve by 2% on him. --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:30:04 PM | message detail |
| You seem to continually forget that Mario got his
biggest game since the dawn of the 3D era and he happens to have been
in Brawl, too. Really, now. Mario got a significant boost in 2k5 off of
essentially nothing, and his last year has been his best in a long time. --- Mustache...and green... |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 7:32:35 PM | message detail |
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Again, I doubt Brawl will do very much for returning characters, and
arguing that he'll outboost Snake there is pushing it anyway. At the
very least, Snake can get within 55/45. I'll admit that Galaxy was a
big game for the plumber, but Twilight Princess was a big game for the
Zelda crew, and it didn't seem to help much. Perhaps you'll say that Galaxy being better received makes a difference, but then TP beat it in that GotC poll, so... --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 7:35:07 PM | message detail |
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You seem to continually forget that Mario got his biggest game since
the dawn of the 3D era and he happens to have been in Brawl, too. As it so happens, MGS4 is Snake's biggest game in ten years - and he has a lot more room to grow with people than someone like Mario. Just to reiterate again, Mario isn't a bad pick here at all, but the confidence in him is staggering. He's the safer pick, but of the two, there's not much doubt that Snake's increased much more than Mario has. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:40:07 PM | message detail |
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No, I'd say that Link got his Twilight Princess boost before the game
released (speaking of 53/47 turnabouts...). Several years before, even.
I'm not going to argue reception, as Twilight Princess/Galaxy would
undoubtedly be a tight match with the stronger series favoured. Rather,
the lack of hype for Galaxy (overshadowed by Brawl and Twilight
Princess) means that Mario hasn't seen anything from Galaxy yet, unlike
Link and co. Remember that Samus looked good last year and all she had
was Corruption, which was overshadowed even more by TP and Brawl. I would also agree that Snake benefits from Brawl more (probably much more) than Mario and Samus against neutral opponents...but I'm not so sure that it would hold up against a strong Nintendo character. People who have played Brawl but not MGS (the new fans that Snake in Brawl attracts) are likely to have deep attachments to strong Ninty types. --- Mustache...and green... |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 7:41:01 PM | message detail |
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I feel like we're just repeating ourselves in an attempt to see who can
scream the loudest here, but we're talking about a site that's become
more Nintendo-friendly since 2005 thanks to the success of the Wii and
the relative flopping of the PS3. we're talking about Mario's first
real game in ten years, too. it's not as cut-and-dry as "SNAKE SNAKE
SNAKE MGS4 BIG GAME". Snake isn't the only one capable of increasing,
here. as for Samus, I wouldn't be so quick to throw Brawl out - she got a significant redesign that, um, may appeal to our fanbase. she's still an unknown. --- xyzzy nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 7:41:23 PM | message detail |
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Well, we'll have to wait and see! Come on, Bacon! We need the bracket! --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:41:45 PM | message detail |
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ZFS (#283) It's just that Snake has to have had a huge boost in the last several years to cover both the gap and whatever boosts Mario's had. Snake has crazy-ass strength now, but I still don't think it's enough to even overcome a boosted Samus, let alone Mario. I kinda think you've overemphasizing the effect MGS4 has on Snake, really. It may be the PS3 game, but it's still a PS3 game. I think it'll have a similar effect to Brawl in that it'll definitely boost the lower-tier MGS characters, but I don't think it will add too much to Snake's power, at least that much more so than the trailers and the hype already had in 2006. Essentially, I don't see him close to having the same increase between 2006 and now as he had between 2005 and 2006, and that's what he needs to catch up to Mario. --- i got nuthin |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 7:43:14 PM | message detail |
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all this arguing is just going to be anticlimatic because it being 1vs1 at this point just doesnt seem ... likely. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 7:43:36 PM | message detail |
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actually now that i think about it: whose idea was it to make the gimmick? Allen? Cjay? --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 7:44:29 PM | message detail |
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We're not sure whose idea last year's contest was because it was right
during the transition time, but I'd say Bacon handled most of it due to
the leniency concerning joke characters that Ceej never had. --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:46:33 PM | message detail |
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RPGuy96 (#284) Actually, the Link argument kinda explains my thoughts about Snake. Link got more of a boost from TP hype than he did from TP itself. Likewise, I think Snake got most of his boost from Brawl and MGS4-hype and the games, well-received as they are, won't boost him as much as the hype did. If Samus was static, then the game boosts may have been enough for Snake to beat her, but I don't really see him doing it against a boosted Samus, let alone Mario. --- i got nuthin |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 7:48:55 PM | message detail |
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Alright, enough of that. I'm off to play FF7, which is still an
underwhelming game in my eyes but sorta fun enough to keep playing I
guess. --- i got nuthin |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 8/13/2008 7:54:43 PM | message detail |
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as for Samus, I wouldn't be so quick to throw Brawl out - she got a
significant redesign that, um, may appeal to our fanbase. she's still
an unknown. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2555 I guess SSBB is out now but I'd still say it's more likely to hurt than help. --- Nominate Presea Combatir for the GameFAQs Character Contest! http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/nominate_entry.html |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/13/2008 7:55:56 PM | message detail |
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The demographic switch already happened from 2005 to 2006. I can't see
guys like Mario and Link being much different then they were those 2
years. Minor barlw character will definitely feel the effects, but I
still think that the top half of the Noble Nine have peaked barring any
mid-contest major releases. Even a midcontest announcement of FF7
remake shouldn't have too much effect. But that's just the way I see it. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 7:57:01 PM | message detail |
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I kinda think you've overemphasizing the effect MGS4 has on Snake,
really. It may be the PS3 game, but it's still a PS3 game. I think
it'll have a similar effect to Brawl in that it'll definitely boost the
lower-tier MGS characters, but I don't think it will add too much to
Snake's power I'll tackle this point, then call it quits here. Might as well wait for the bracket so we have something concrete instead of arguing hypotheticals - even if this match is more likely to happen than some others. An argument doesn't need to be made about the PS3. We all know that it's not the level it could be, but MGS4 has done a lot in making it look much more respectable in a short amount of time. It still has a ways to go, but it's not hanging around 20% ownership anymore. That one poll we got a couple of weeks after MGS4's release spoke well enough to how the site is taking it - beating GTA4 and about 10% off from Brawl. That's not bad; if anything, it's damn good. But the bigger point here is that MGS4 isn't a Brawl. It's not going to have a big effect on the secondary cast and skip over Snake. The reason you could expect that with Brawl is because every major Nintendo has been in a million different games. Snake had two (three by proxy) before this. And the focus has been firmly on him from the beginning - the hype, the release, and the game itself. It's all Snake-centric - and plays out very much as a 'tribute' to what he's done. Other characters will benefit, but Snake's getting a big piece of that. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/13/2008 9:19:03 PM | message detail |
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Looking for opinions here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44867969 Basically, who do you pick between Brawl and Melee in a contest? ~*ST*~ --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS |
| The_Ocelot2 | Posted 8/13/2008 9:23:54 PM | message detail |
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I know this was touched on in a stats topic a while back but Ulti's
post has brought it back to my attention. Who would you pick between
MGS2 and MGS3 in a contest? I'd pick MGS2 but I seem to remember being
the minority in that pick when it was last brought up. --- Go Ducks Go! This fox is still one step ahead of the hounds |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/13/2008 9:25:32 PM | message detail |
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MGS3 would beat MGS2 57-43. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 11:23:27 PM | message detail |
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MGS3 in an Ulti-style blowout! SSBM/MGS2 was the original Ulti-style blowout! --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/13/2008 11:26:41 PM | message detail |
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(Metal Gear Solid 2) --- Gilgamesh (Final Fantasy V) is awesome. Nominate him for Character Battle 7! http://www.ffcompendium.com/chara/12rw-gilgamesh-a.jpg |
