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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 554

HaRRicH | Posted 8/13/2008 3:57:19 PM | message detail
He doesn't need to boost a lot just from SSBB post-hype though; he needs it to become a much more solid (no pun intended) backing for him. We often assume Samus beat Solid in 2k6 because the hype didn't carry over against Nintendo, and Solid still kept it respectable. Now, with an actual game out, it's hard to contest that people now have a reason to support him more both as far as being genuine fans and being exposed to him go...

...I don't think MGS4 had the same affect for Solid though -- honestly, in E3-2006, MGS4 was just a compliment to Konami's main man in comparison to his arrival in SSBB. There was also debate about how people felt with his aging and PS3-exclusive status in comparison to Solid in his prime look on the Wii-exclusive, plus SSBB came out of nowhere to MAKE people care about him. Its game releasing and the PS3 having more support has probably done Solid many wonders than its hype.


I agree with you about SMG > MGS4 and Mario >(=) Solid one-on-one, and will even mention that MKW can't hurt the cause for Mario either. I just think the past two years has done a lot to shape the site in Solid's favor for contests than Mario's, from the beginning hype to the current praise. In three years since Mario/Solid, Solid has had MGS3:S to solid reviews (spoilers be damned), an online beta-game (though I'm not sure how much that's worth?), MGS4, and SSBB. Mario's done quite a bit since then too, but nothing that will boost him like that. The site's been crazy about Solid Snake for over two years now, more than we've ever seen before that. There's reason for intimidation.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/13/2008 4:01:32 PM | message detail
So are we all pretty much saying that Solid > Mario indirectly, but it'll be close in a direct match-up with most of us giving Mario the edge.
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Because that's where I stand TBQH.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/13/2008 4:04:14 PM | message detail
I'm not certain I wanna say Solid > Mario indirectly, but I wouldn't be shocked about it. I do think Solid holds up well to Mario though instead of getting blown out in SFF for that demographic.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:04:27 PM | message detail
here's the thing -- Samus is a leech, a character that is wildly more popular than her series. she's more a Smash character with a cool design than a Metroid character to a lot of people.

if Snake's Nintendo fanbase shrivels up against Samus, what happens against Mario? this is like tossing a Mario cameo into Twin Snakes and expecting MGS fans to vote for him over Snake. it just doesn't work that way. this boost is all about MGS4 vs. Galaxy vs. the distance that previously existed between them. like I said, Snake's an okay upset pick, but you can't just gloss over Mario like that.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/13/2008 4:05:28 PM | message detail
It'll be alot closer than previous years.

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She may be your girl but that ass is mine!
XBOX Live Gamertag: TriggerTRE
SFF_potential | Posted 8/13/2008 4:06:02 PM | message detail
i think they'll be about equal with mario>snake in a match, but i would take snake>samus now
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Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/13/2008 4:10:48 PM | message detail
Galaxy is a huge deal for Mario - as tranny said, it's Mario's biggest game in 11 years. We've seen, time and time again, that established characters can get stronger - see Link, Samus, and, yes, Mario, so I don't buy that argument at all. Mario's got a lot going for him this year (being in GameFAQ's game of the generation is a nice bonus) and he had a pretty big lead to start with.

I would also be optimistic about Samus, based on her performance last year. The Samus we've seen in years past (most specifically, 2k5 and the 2k6 Battle Royale) would not have placed third in a poll with Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth. That might have been coming off a Corruption high, but it's a very noteworthy result, and she managed to beat Sephy worse than Snake did in the same situation a year earlier. That's not something I would have expected from her at all.
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Mustache...and green...
Master Moltar | Posted 8/13/2008 4:16:50 PM | message detail
hoho, Snake > Mario indirectly will be the new Samus > Mario indirectly

just wait
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:20:05 PM | message detail
now consider that Galaxy would beat MGS4 in a poll pretty handily - as you said, the whole userbase thing, along with the fact that Galaxy was VERY loved - and then consider the gap between Snake and Mario that previous existed. the only argument you have left is that Snake is not as "exposed", which is one I believe. but I hardly think that's enough to send him flying past Mario and into Sephiroth land.

Galaxy beating MGS4 doesn't dictate what would happen in Snake / Mario. It's one thing to win by sheer numbers alone - give the MGS4 the kind of userbase Galaxy has and that match isn't close - but it's another to win when the playing field is leveled. Again, I wasn't being entirely serious earlier when I said Snake is 'guaranteed' a win against Mario - and Sephiroth level is a pure bias pick, nothing more.

We're talking about making up 7% in three years with everything Snake has had. If we want to give most of the Brawl boost to hype, and ignore the release, that's still going to do something for Snake. He isn't going to do any worse than he did three years ago with Brawl alone - if anything, its release should make him less susceptible to SFF, not more.

MGS4 shouldn't be underplayed here. It's not a game that was all hype - its last few months were where its hype really starting piling on, not years before. More importantly, it's one of the rare instances where a huge game with enormous hype wasn't met with poor fan reception. For many people, MGS4 is no less than the second best game in the series, and for a lot, it's the best. That shouldn't be disregarded.

And while we can give Snake MGS3 by proxy, it's still not the real deal. Solid Snake hasn't been at the forefront of a game since MGS2. MGS4's importance as it relates to Snake can't be underlined enough - it's the first time people have gotten to play as Snake since the Tanker back in 2001. And Solid Snake couldn't be more front and center than he is in MGS4. The effects we've already seen from the game should put it into a entirely different discussion from Galaxy, but maybe that's just me being biased.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:23:38 PM | message detail
if Snake's Nintendo fanbase shrivels up against Samus, what happens against Mario? this is like tossing a Mario cameo into Twin Snakes and expecting MGS fans to vote for him over Snake.

This isn't being entirely fair to Snake. This isn't being entirely fair to Snake. When he faced Samus he was just an announcement; things are a bit different now, if you ask me. And the 47% he did put up against her then really wasn't that bad.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:24:43 PM | message detail
here's Snake's real problem: he's stronger now, no doubt, but where does he go? several people, you included, have mentioned FF7/MGS "SFF"; others have talked about his Brawl support drying up against "real" Nintendo characters. well, here's the characters above him:

Cloud, Sephiroth
Link, Mario, Samus

where's he gonna go? I'll give him a win over Samus now, but it's really tough to push into that stratosphere when these other guys are getting games all the time, are far more iconic to most people, and are on a system that has triple the ownership.

(put MGS4 on the Wii and Galaxy could still beat it - I think you underestimate how loved that game is/was.)

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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/13/2008 4:24:46 PM | message detail
I'd call Snake the favor in a rematch against Samus.

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She may be your girl but that ass is mine!
XBOX Live Gamertag: TriggerTRE
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:25:21 PM | message detail
if Snake's Nintendo fanbase shrivels up against Samus

I'm not sure that's what happened, but then again, that match doesn't make any sense to me. I'm really not sure what to think of Brawl or MGS4 for Snake, or Galaxy for Mario. I was impressed about how Samus beat Sephiroth in that fourway poll even with Link there, which does make me wonder if Snake can beat her now.

I'm uncertain about the whole thing myself, which makes me want to see it, just to see what happens.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:33:44 PM | message detail
At or a little above Mario's level is about where I'd put Snake this year. I wouldn't argue Snake above Sephiroth. It's a great fanboy pick - here we come - but arguing it requires stretching that most people would brush off.

I don't think the significance of MGS4 can be stated enough, but I seem to be alone in that one. Guess we'll find out eventually.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 4:36:24 PM | message detail
^ No MGS4 was absolutely fantastic, and will do good things for Snake.

I definitely take him over Samus, against Mario it's a toss-up for me, against Sephiroth he is definitely the underdog, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he beat him.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 8/13/2008 4:36:55 PM | message detail
Solid Snake + MGS4 + SSBB vs Mario + SMG + SSBB + 7%

And some random variation on both sides. 7% is not exactly a small gap to make up. In 2k5, the gap between Link and Sephiroth was 5% and the gap between Sephiroth and Mario was 6%. Mario and Solid Snake is 7%. MGS4 has to cross that gap and overpower whatever boost Mario got from SMG. SSBB might help a bit with crossing that gap, but Mario has SSBB as well. If Samus could take the SSBB boost from Snake, it'll be even harder to keep it against Mario. If Mario was standing still, Solid Snake would have a great shot at taking him out, but Mario isn't. Snake should be able to deal with Samus now, but Mario is still going to be out of reach.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:37:56 PM | message detail
I'm a believer in MGS4 doing big things for Snake, but I'm still a bit skeptical of making much of boosts. I want to see him in action first before I believe it. Of course, I'll have to fill out the bracket beforehand, so that makes things tricky.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:38:47 PM | message detail
TRE sums up the argument really well. it all depends on what you think of those "factors".
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:39:21 PM | message detail
I can see Mario getting a boost from Galaxy, though I do question how much a new game really matters to someone like him, but not Brawl. I don't expect any sort of across the board Nintendo boost from it. I can buy a big new game doing something for him, but not one where he's rarely, if ever, even mentioned.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 4:40:46 PM | message detail
here's Snake's real problem: he's stronger now, no doubt, but where does he go? several people, you included, have mentioned FF7/MGS "SFF"; others have talked about his Brawl support drying up against "real" Nintendo characters. well, here's the characters above him:

Cloud, Sephiroth
Link, Mario, Samus

where's he gonna go? I'll give him a win over Samus now, but it's really tough to push into that stratosphere when these other guys are getting games all the time, are far more iconic to most people, and are on a system that has triple the ownership.


I agree on Link, Mario and Samus due to the very small role Snake has now played in Nintendo history, but when talking about Sephiroth or Cloud, who's to say Snake would get SFF'd? I mean, he's a pretty great character. I definitely think he would look disproportionately weak against Cloud, but Sephiroth? Not too sure.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:41:13 PM | message detail
I really don't expect Brawl to do much for anyone who's a returning character, though that's not to say it does NOTHING. Snake definitely has the advantage with Brawl, but how big of an advantage IS that? That's the question.

Also, I kinda think games like MGS4 will provide bigger boosts than games like Galaxy. That is to say, a game that is story-and-character-oriented will provide bigger boosts than games that aren't heavy on story. That's more of a hunch than anything else though.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:41:16 PM | message detail
I should say that it applies to more than Mario, too. Link, Samus, Ganondorf, Luigi, Yoshi, Bowser - I don't expect Brawl to do anything for these guys. But I would expect the Ikes and Meta-Knights of the world to benefit a good deal.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:42:35 PM | message detail
I'm just regurgitating old arguments here. people used this to explain Sephiroth/Liquid and MGS/FF7. something else too, I think.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:42:41 PM | message detail
I'll mention that it didn't seem like Sephiroth and Cloud had any effect on Snake during the Battle Royale. Cloud had a small advantage over Link on who got the most of Snake's percentage after he left, but it wasn't decisive by any means.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:43:37 PM | message detail
something else too, I think.

I've argued it on Snake/Squall before myself. Also, Yuna/Liquid last year is sorta...questionable, I guess.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:43:46 PM | message detail
Snake got smashed in last year's final - take from that what you will.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:44:25 PM | message detail
l-block sucks imho

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Kept you waiting, huh?
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:44:42 PM | message detail
Anyone in Snake's position would've gotten smashed under those circumstances, Samus or Mario being no exception.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:44:51 PM | message detail
l-block/snake sff god dammit
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:45:33 PM | message detail
it happened it - believe

block voters are unquestionably snake voters

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Kept you waiting, huh?
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:46:33 PM | message detail
...We need a bracket.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 4:46:48 PM | message detail
what the hell

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k258/ZZoMBiEXIII/L-1.jpg

thanks google

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:47:31 PM | message detail
you know what happens whenever you and I hit up google image search

argh time to bump that disaster topic again
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 4:48:02 PM | message detail
...We definitely need a bracket now.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/13/2008 4:48:14 PM | message detail
There's a couple of reasons to believe in FFVII/MGS SFF. Number 1 is definitely FFVII/MGS, which made MGS look pretty bad. Another is Sephy/Liquid a year later - Liquid was obviously overrated in 2k4, but he was still at Frog/MC's level and that was quite a severe beating. Overall, Snake performed quite well in the Battle Royale, but compare Link/Cloud/Snake/Sephiroth to Link/Cloud/Samus/Sephiroth. With Samus, Cloud and Sephy combine for 44.2%; with Snake, they're at 40.49%. That suggests he was hurting Cloud and Sephy more; also consider that Samus, who has shown to be easily SFFable, outdid him relative to Sephy with Link in the poll.
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Mustache...and green...
SFF_potential | Posted 8/13/2008 4:48:35 PM | message detail
i wouldn't really trust much from l-blocks matches last year, except positions within matches
i.e. Link>Cloud>Snake>Sonic/MC/Dante/Kratos
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Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 4:56:12 PM | message detail
I'm just regurgitating old arguments here. people used this to explain Sephiroth/Liquid and MGS/FF7. something else too, I think.

Hey I'm a big fan of MGS/FF SFF. But the term "SFF" needs to be clearly defined.

Cloud-Sephiroth, to me, is full of SFF. Yet it doesn't show, in that the way Sephiroth performed to Cloud directly pretty much holds up to how he performs in comparison to Cloud indirectly.

Link - Ganondorf is also full of SFF, but here it is clearly shown. Both matches have a similar amount of SFF though (at least, that's how I see it).

In that sense, it's very possible that there is indeed a significant amount of SFF between Sephiroth and Snake, but that doesn't have to mean anything bad for Snake.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 4:57:28 PM | message detail
just to clarify, "SFF", this bastard term that we haven't killed with fire yet, is not just overlap, but overlap that clearly benefits one person in a way it wouldn't normally. Cloud and Link have crazy overlap, but it doesn't show. Cloud and Squall does.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 4:59:58 PM | message detail
just to clarify, "SFF", this bastard term that we haven't killed with fire yet, is not just overlap, but overlap that clearly benefits one person in a way it wouldn't normally. Cloud and Link have crazy overlap, but it doesn't show. Cloud and Squall does.

Ah yes, Cloud and Link of course have overlap. But would you call it overlap from their real fanbases? I mean, is someone who is a die-hard fan of both Cloud and Link common?

More importantly, is he as common as someone who is a die-hard fan of both Cloud and Sephiroth? Because I would say he is decidedly less common, yet by your definition there is also no SFF between Cloud and Sephiroth.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 5:02:12 PM | message detail
I mean, is someone who is a die-hard fan of both Cloud and Link common?

There'd have to be. Otherwise, they wouldn't be the two most popular characters on this site.

Also, we only use the term SFF to describe a match that is an anomaly due to an excessive favoring of one character over the other. Technically, EVERY match will have some overlap, so by your definition, every match would be an SFF match.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/13/2008 5:02:48 PM | message detail
Technically tranny, since the invention of rSFF, SFF is a large amount of overlap that benefits the stronger character.
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Imo.
jonthomson | Posted 8/13/2008 5:03:09 PM | message detail
...We need a bracket.

this

wouldn't have any problem putting snake over samus, but mario, no way. smg was a big thing in a way that corruption, er, wasn't, not withstanding that there has never been any rationale evidence that samus has ever been near mario's level
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 5:05:01 PM | message detail
not withstanding that there has never been any rationale evidence that samus has ever been near mario's level

To say that she NEVER has is blatant ignorance of the evidence. Since 2005, I'd agree with you. Before then, there's every evidence that Samus has looked to be Mario's equal if not superior. That's not to say that she would've ever beaten Mario before 2005, but she has at least looked indirectly stronger.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 5:06:37 PM | message detail
There'd have to be. Otherwise, they wouldn't be the two most popular characters on this site.

Also, we only use the term SFF to describe a match that is an anomaly due to an excessive favoring of one character over the other. Technically, EVERY match will have some overlap, so by your definition, every match would be an SFF match.


Yeah but the term SFF clearly refers to a significant overlap in the relevant fanbase. I mean, no matter how you define it, every match has SFF (unless you're going to make up some benchmark percentage of anomaly that needs to be crossed before there is "SFF").

But whatever, I'm not going to try to define SFF differently. By the current definition, then, there is no SFF between Cloud and Sephiroth, correct?

In that case, let me say it like this : despite a disproportionately large overlap between Sephiroth and Snake, I think there might not be any actual SFF between them.
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jonthomson | Posted 8/13/2008 5:07:58 PM | message detail
meh, i just say that as i was one of those leading the "lol x-stats, mario will sff samus into oblivion, oh look, 60/40, yoink" bandwagon, carry on
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 5:09:03 PM | message detail
SFF becomes a useless term if you use it too broadly. It'd have no reason to exist if we applied it to, say, Cloud/Link, a match where there was no obvious anomaly in the result. It's called the Same Fanbase Factor because that means having the same fanbase to a large extent affected the results, meaning it was a FACTOR in why the match was an anomaly. In a match like Cloud/Link, same fanbase is NOT a factor in determining the outcome, so therefore, it's not SFF.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 5:10:13 PM | message detail
i just say that as i was one of those leading the "lol x-stats, mario will sff samus into oblivion, oh look, 60/40, yoink" bandwagon, carry on

And I'll just say the people on that "bandwagon" just got lucky Mario majorly boosted in 2005 and move on.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 5:15:52 PM | message detail
Samus looked pretty clearly stronger, or at least better equipped to handle SFF matches, in 2007 and the main difference was Metroid Prime 3.

Galaxy was clearly bigger than Corruption.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 5:16:07 PM | message detail
SFF becomes a useless term if you use it too broadly. It'd have no reason to exist if we applied it to, say, Cloud/Link, a match where there was no obvious anomaly in the result. It's called the Same Fanbase Factor because that means having the same fanbase to a large extent affected the results, meaning it was a FACTOR in why the match was an anomaly. In a match like Cloud/Link, same fanbase is NOT a factor in determining the outcome, so therefore, it's not SFF.

Ah but I see it differently. Take for example Link-Sephiroth and Cloud - Sephiroth.

Strictly mathematically speaking, we would expect greater overlap between Link and Sephiroh than we would between Cloud and Sephiroth, simply because Link is stronger than Sephiroth and thus has more fans.

Is anyone going to argue that this is the case? The overlap between Cloud and Sephiroth is clearly greater. So the overlap is disproportionately large, hence we could logically speak of a "same fanbase factor". In this case, however, (as opposed to in other cases, like Squall - Tidus) nothing actually comes from this same fanbase factor. That is why I have never instinctly treated SFF as something that you would actually have to see mathematically in the poll results.


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consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 5:17:22 PM | message detail
And in calling Cloud-Sephiroth an "SFF match", I'd hardly call the term "SFF" useless; it's still very clearly defined.
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