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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 554

swirIdude | Posted 8/13/2008 11:17:47 AM | message detail
It's slowed down a LOT. Which means nominations will be closing very soon!

We can only hope.
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA!
transience | Posted 8/13/2008 11:26:48 AM | message detail
aww yeah Moltar on the Timwagon

any "TOC" bracket should have a setup where Samus/Snake happens with the winner taking on Mario. ideally it'd be

Mario
Sonic

Samus
Snake

and then the other side can have cLinkeroth

(but this is never happening since I highly doubt we'll be seeing a 1 on 1 character bracket so whatever)
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CByBMKiiHtA awww yeah
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 11:41:21 AM | message detail
well allen hasnt disappointed so far. let's hope he closes them down today.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
SFF_potential | Posted 8/13/2008 11:48:53 AM | message detail
i'd expect the nominations to be closed by friday at the latest
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http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/159/tenchi06oj6.jpg http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/55/tenchi01jt4.jpg
Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 11:56:39 AM | message detail
I think people forget how strong Sephiroth still is. Snake is going to have to be able to 55/45 Mario before he can take on Sephy. I don't think he's quite there yet, considering he was just 55/45ing Mega Man and Sonic a couple of years ago. He'd have to be able to get about 60% on them now. That's a pretty big jump.

I think Snake will get a somewhat spectacular boost what with MGS4 and SSBB, introducing him to a whole new audience (which might not help him all that much against Mario, but definitely against Sephiroth).

Sephiroth on the other hand won't be getting any stronger any time soon, sadly. Perhaps he can stagnate with Crisis Core or even increase a little, but until a FFVII remake is announced he's only going to get weaker.
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Nominate Red XIII for Character Battle VII!
http://uk.geocities.com/blissful_absolution/assignment4/images/redxiiiimage.jpg
Big Bob | Posted 8/13/2008 12:06:41 PM | message detail
I had a dream Hector made it into the bracket.

Why am I dreaming about GameFAQs?
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Someone's trying to kill me!
I hate it when people do that.
voltch | Posted 8/13/2008 12:16:34 PM | message detail
honestly i think that snaked boosted more from pre game hype,the release of brawl and mgs4 will only give a slight boost.

by now i reckon Snack vs Mario is the new Mario vs Crono.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
SFF_potential | Posted 8/13/2008 12:17:56 PM | message detail
possibly, though i think mario is still a little bit ahead of snake, as he will take most of the brawl votes
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http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3918/tenchi02lw1.jpg http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/159/tenchi06oj6.jpg
Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle
Lopen | Posted 8/13/2008 12:18:24 PM | message detail
Voltch has it right, I think. Mario v Snake would be a toughie for me to pick... but considering taking Snake over Sephiroth? I'm not even sure I could take that pick.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 12:18:34 PM | message detail
lol i dont even want to get back to the Mario vs Snake debate.


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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
voltch | Posted 8/13/2008 12:23:39 PM | message detail
snake not snack,damn psp.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2008 12:27:09 PM | message detail
Considering how immensely awesome MGS4 was and how Snake is pretty popular in SSBB now, I'd be weary of thinking Snake had his boost already.

And the realistic part of Snake > Sephiroth is that he will have the full SSBB support in that match, which he wouldn't against Mario or Samus.
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Nominate Red XIII for Character Battle VII!
http://uk.geocities.com/blissful_absolution/assignment4/images/redxiiiimage.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 12:30:59 PM | message detail
that could work if we're severely underestimating SSB support for a Noble Nine member.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 12:32:30 PM | message detail
but if Samus is any indication it probably wont be enough.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
voltch | Posted 8/13/2008 12:34:49 PM | message detail
but awesome games=/= strength,also old snake for me limits his potential,if we could play with prime snake from the start then he could be much stronger.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 1:16:53 PM | message detail
We need to see Mario vs. Sonic simply because it's Mario vs. Sonic. The end result doesn't matter.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/13/2008 1:19:54 PM | message detail
What would Mario vs. Luigi be like? Would Luigi rSFF Mario some or just get pummeled into the ground? I could see either happening.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 1:20:57 PM | message detail
Mario would have like 80%.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 1:21:18 PM | message detail
i expect him to get less than Bowser did at least.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Billy Blaze | Posted 8/13/2008 1:22:41 PM | message detail
That was my finals for 2k2. Whoops. >_>

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Redtooth
SFF_potential | Posted 8/13/2008 1:26:11 PM | message detail
Mario (2002c) VS Luigi (2007c raw)

Mario has a strength of 37.47.
Luigi has a strength of 39.52.

Luigi wins with 52.59% of the vote!
A win of 6,220 with 119,918 total votes cast.h

seriously though, i think Luigi will hold up ok, and might even rSFF Mario a bit, but it will still be ~60-65% for Mario
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http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3918/tenchi02lw1.jpg http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/159/tenchi06oj6.jpg
Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 1:27:52 PM | message detail
Unfortunately, Luigi will probably get SFF'd pretty badly. Remember, he doesn't beat Mario in that Favorite Mario Character poll anymore, unfortunately.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
Master Moltar | Posted 8/13/2008 1:35:40 PM | message detail
Mario/Yoshi I can see some rSFF.

Mario/Luigi is just "no".
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 1:36:54 PM | message detail
Link/Yoshi showed that even Yoshi will get beat up pretty good.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 1:38:05 PM | message detail
And if Mega Man can somehow find a way to SFF Yoshi, I don't see why Mario wouldn't.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
Master Moltar | Posted 8/13/2008 1:44:00 PM | message detail
Well Link and Mega Man are cool main characters in their own games.

Mario and Yoshi share most of the same games and everyone knows Yoshi is way cooler than Mario in them.

Not saying Yoshi wouldn't get SFF'd so don't get me wrong.
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 1:44:35 PM | message detail
Yoshi is only better than Mario in Mario Kart games.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
Master Moltar | Posted 8/13/2008 1:48:01 PM | message detail
Mario Tennis, Mario Golf, uh uh

Mario Party (>_>)

Mario...Smash

I mean if Yoshi was in Galaxy he'd probably make the game even more awesome than it already is.
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Moltar Status: =D
Brawlin' - 4339-2157-7264
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/13/2008 3:06:53 PM | message detail
Snake had to pull out all the stops to beat Sephiroth WITH CLOUD IN THE MATCH. Even now, with MGS4, I'd put Sephy to throw up some Ulti domination.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2008 3:12:32 PM | message detail
Luigi is playable in Galaxy. Yoshi is playable in Sunshine. It's not a coincidence that Galaxy is the better game.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 3:17:01 PM | message detail
Snake over Sephiroth is one of those upsets that you take partly out of bias and less out of logic. While I think he handles Mario and Samus without too much trouble today on the back of MGS4 and Brawl, taking down Sephiroth is one of those things you really can't argue too well - unless you believe Sephiroth is due for a drop this year. Snake very well could beat Sephiroth, but it's not the smart pick.

That said, if paths collide I might have to take the chance !

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Kept you waiting, huh?
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 3:18:36 PM | message detail
...It's ****ing Sephiroth. No ****ing way Snake has boosted that much.

I think Luigi would hold his own against Mario, though I don't think he'd rSFF him. I don't think he'd get destroyed as bad as other Mario characters would, including the ones stronger than him. Of course, I don't really have any argument as to why. Probably more wishful thinking than anything. :/
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i got nuthin
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/13/2008 3:20:01 PM | message detail
I noticed that we are talkingabout Mario VS Sonic, and yes it has to happen this year.....

Because Sonic will win the contest this year.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 3:22:13 PM | message detail
I like how you glossed over Mario as if Snake beating him was a foregone conclusion. :)
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 3:23:36 PM | message detail
'guaranteed'

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 3:23:54 PM | message detail
time to account bet then
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
SFF_potential | Posted 8/13/2008 3:25:17 PM | message detail
yeah, i think he forgot about this
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2126
snake has to make up over 7% with brawl and MGS4, while mario has had Galaxy aswell
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http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3918/tenchi02lw1.jpg http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/159/tenchi06oj6.jpg
Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/13/2008 3:31:27 PM | message detail
Any bracket that leaves the reasonable potential for Mario/Samus II needs to die in a fire. We don't need that, let alone a match where Mario/Samus II would be the favorite to happen.
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 3:33:33 PM | message detail
Putting up 43% on Mario back in 2005 - that year he had the crazy run - doesn't reflect all that poorly on Snake by my count. That was well before the announcement came about Snake being in Brawl, not to mention MGS4. 7% sounds like a lot, but it wouldn't be all gained in one year's time; it's pretty clear Snake's a lot stronger now than he was back then. Snake winning isn't a guarantee, but I feel really confident taking him over Mario in a match today. MGS4 will do plenty for Snake.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/13/2008 3:34:19 PM | message detail
Maybe not that extreme, but yeah, that would just be wasting Samus. A Samus/Snake rematch is essentially mandatory at this point.
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i got nuthin
HaRRicH | Posted 8/13/2008 3:35:14 PM | message detail
About Solid Snake: I was skeptical for a long time about how easily he could beat Samus, but at this point it's hard to deny Solid being close to Mario. Solid had the largest impact in E3-2006 by far for hype, and there's no doubt that he's having the biggest year this year for games. When N and I took a test about how SSBB-characters were received, Solid Snake showed he was one of the best-received on the internet in general, landing at #5 on both formats (and did similarly well when I polled solely GameFAQs):

http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/results.php
http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/results.php?topfive=ranks

Throw in that he apparently dominates tournaments, and he's obviously well-liked. It's not just excitement for him anymore -- it's genuine fandom from the current GotY. He'll gather a lot of fans like that, and -- based on how people seem to like him there in two different formats -- doesn't seem like he'll easily suffer SFF. Even if he does, that's beside the point -- for every vote he gets for SSBB, he's likely taking a vote from Mario or Samus. He looks to be well-favored, so that's a decent dent to respect.

He's then the lead character both for the first time in eleven years and the game considered by some as the best game in the MG(S)-series, not to mention the current runner-up to the GotY. The PS3-exclusive game beat GTA4 within less of a month of its release and has caused the PS3 sales to sky-rocket, so there's a strong concentrated fanbase behind MGS4 now that will only grow. Those fans will be hard to shake off in a contest, especially in a four-way.


I'll take Mario >= Solid > Samus one-on-one...but in a four-way format, Solid is going to be TOUGH to beat. I wouldn't say I'd take him over Sephiroth in most situations...but maybe in an especially great opportunity, I would, and even in normal four-ways I would take Solid to cleanly and fairly beat Mario or Samus.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 3:42:48 PM | message detail
Samus beat Snake despite all the Brawl stuff; given what we've seen, I don't expect a huge boost thanks to all the Brawl hype. look at TP last year. I'm not expecting that to be a big deal.

as for MGS4, it's kind of in the same boat. and even if you did think it was a huge deal, Mario also has Galaxy. you can debate Snake over Mario, but you definitely can't gloss over it like it's inevitable.

Mario Galaxy vs.MGS4 gogogo (spoilers Galaxy wins)
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/13/2008 3:44:35 PM | message detail
Snake can make it close but I would never take him over Mario.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 3:48:12 PM | message detail
Brawl isn't the bulk of the boost he'll get this year, to be sure. He's gotten a lot of that already, but having the game out will no doubt do something, if only to lessen what he might lose when going up against characters like Mario and Samus. He's not just an announcement anymore; it's tangible, people have gotten some hands-on time.

MGS4 is something else, though. We never really saw any pre-release boost from hype, and if there was it was clouded by Brawl. Given how infrequent Metal Gear releases are I wouldn't put it in the same boat as Mario Galaxy. It's not like Snake has a million games to his name. MGS4 in particular deserves some mentioning here because of how hyped it was as Snake's last game. Hard to deny the effects its had, especially when compared to Galaxy.

Only reason Galaxy might win a head-to-head is because of the PS3's userbase here.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 3:50:14 PM | message detail
exactly - it was hyped. everyone saw the trailer. everyone knew about Snake. it was up there with Brawl as far as a hyped game, and Snake was in the middle of it.

which is to say, I think that diminishes MGS4's "boost".
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/13/2008 3:51:39 PM | message detail
Think he'll do one of those things where the seeds are slowly revealed...?

What contest was that for again? That was a bad idea.
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caps
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/13/2008 3:53:03 PM | message detail
2k6?

lol Nidoran F
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 3:54:06 PM | message detail
The hype in the few months leading up to MGS4 were significantly more than the hype back in 2006 and 2007. We haven't seen Snake on the back of that kind of hype. You could see the number of people around here alone playing through the series for the first time in anticipation for it. That's a good deal different than a trailer, if you ask me.

I can agree that Brawl won't produce a significant push this year, but MGS4? Can't bend on that one. Anything Snake may have gotten from 2006 or 2007 won't be anything compared to what he should get now.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
ZFS | Posted 8/13/2008 3:55:51 PM | message detail
All this said, I wouldn't say Mario is a bad pick there by any stretch - it's not a guaranteed match. But there's a very hard case that can be made for Snake beating Mario. It's not a foregone conclusion, but I take Snake confidently there.

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Kept you waiting, huh?
trannyscience | Posted 8/13/2008 3:56:29 PM | message detail
okay, then compare it to Galaxy, a game that had literally no hype, a game that put Mario platforming back on the map for the first time in ten years. Mario 64 predates Metal Gear Solid 1. Sunshine predates MGS3.

now consider that Galaxy would beat MGS4 in a poll pretty handily - as you said, the whole userbase thing, along with the fact that Galaxy was VERY loved - and then consider the gap between Snake and Mario that previous existed. the only argument you have left is that Snake is not as "exposed", which is one I believe. but I hardly think that's enough to send him flying past Mario and into Sephiroth land.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn
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