GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 554
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/11/2008 12:02:30 PM | message detail |
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The "Ulti works too much" edition =/ ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. ~*ST*~ --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: FF12, Crisis Core, Final Fantasy 4 DS |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/11/2008 12:02:59 PM | message detail |
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It's all good it's not like the bracket's up yet --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 12:03:46 PM | message detail |
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Squall, Seifer, and Laguna for Character Battle VII! --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 1:21:44 PM | message detail |
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On topic 500th post? MADNESS! --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 1:22:34 PM | message detail |
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you know, i was thinking about GlaDOS, and is there any reason to say she's much stronger than.. Alyx? --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 1:23:07 PM | message detail |
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Not really. GlaDOS will be bad fodder, but I think everyone nominating her realizes that. --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| Whit3_Rabb1t | Posted 8/11/2008 1:23:08 PM | message detail |
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Nominate Earthworm Jim --- NOMINATE: Earthworm Jim (Earthworm Jim) for the Character Contest!! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44774544 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 1:24:37 PM | message detail |
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And I know what I said about DMC/RE conflicts with what I said about MGS/FF. Unlike MGS/FF, DMC/RE don't have the "must have on same console" thing going. Unlike Nintendo franchises, DMC/RE don't mingle in the same game... they also play more differently than most Nintendo franchises I'd say. Like I said, evidence supports DMC/RE SFF, but I'd just as soon call it a random fluke without seeing it happen one more time. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 1:24:41 PM | message detail |
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PORTAL SPOILERS? I'd say less strong. Alyx is an actual physical character, and GlaDoS is just a presence, except for the last little bit. Plus, as GF, you're really feeling like part of the game. --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 1:34:35 PM | message detail |
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I dunno, with the way the RE franchise has been evolving, it's slowly
becoming more and more like DMC. It's become faster paced since RE4. --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 1:37:11 PM | message detail |
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Although closer, I'd say RE4's gameplay is closer to that of Halo than DMC. And that's not saying RE4's gameplay is Halolike, don't misread what I'm saying. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| Whit3_Rabb1t | Posted 8/11/2008 1:38:05 PM | message detail |
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...are you guys claiming that DMC games and Resident Evil 4 are
similar? You both shoot at things but that is about the only similarity. --- NOMINATE: Earthworm Jim (Earthworm Jim) for the Character Contest!! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44774544 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 1:45:50 PM | message detail |
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Seriously. DMC and RE look similar on paper, but I doubt anyone who has played both series would claim they play similarly. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| satai_delenn | Posted 8/11/2008 1:49:13 PM | message detail |
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I don't think the DMC/RE overlap comes from the games playing similarly
or even being particularly similar. I think it just comes from them
both being Capcom action games on mostly the same platforms. And I
don't really think that's enough to make it very significant, but it
seems probable that it at least exists. --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 2:37:41 PM | message detail |
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you know, as said as this sounds, i'd honestly have a hard time taking Raiden over Pac-man. Don't know what argument you could make for this one. Post-MGS4 Raiden ain't going to below 2005 Ocelot. Consider me shocked if he is. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/11/2008 2:58:42 PM | message detail |
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Oh, hey, nominations. Sweet. --- Mustache...and green... |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 3:02:26 PM | message detail |
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Ah, welcome to 3 days ago, nice to see you. (Kidding.) So... Mega Man 9... (I'm not giving up on this. Mega Man's gonna rock. BET ON IT!) --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 3:02:32 PM | message detail |
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Post-MGS4 Raiden ain't going to below 2005 Ocelot. Consider me shocked if he is. it really depends on what you thought of pre-MGS4 Raiden last year. if struggling with Sam Fisher is any sign (even considering that MGS characters apparently do well in that format), it probably means he was around the fodder line. there's no telling where he is now but he has a bit of ground to make up from that. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 3:05:25 PM | message detail |
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Pac-Man's right around the fodder line himself. Probably...what, 21-22%
on BL? Honestly, we haven't had a legitimate (read: non-SFF) reading of
Pac-Man since 2002, so there's really no way of knowing. --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 3:09:36 PM | message detail |
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compare Ocelot's numbers on Bowser and adjust Pac-man from there and he could pretty much still have a close match with Kefka. so I'm tempted to believe Pac-man would have won last year. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 3:12:56 PM | message detail |
| Eh, I personally think that Raiden's second round
match gives a better estimate of his strength than his first round
match. Fisher is wildly inconsistent from year to year, but all
estimates of Lloyd/Jak/HK-47 indicate they're roughly on the fodder
line, and Raiden beat the strongest of the three, HK, with some ease. Raiden might have been on Pac Man's level last year to be honest, even with The Toaster Factor screwing him. Throw in more recognizable pics this year and a MGS4 boost, and there's no damn way he loses to Pac Man this year. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| Billy Blaze | Posted 8/11/2008 3:15:34 PM | message detail |
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Pac-Man in general is hard to read. He's a gaming icon, and although
he's usually weak in the contest, he's still almost universally
recognized (at least when it comes to video games). He's just the kind
of character who's able to perform well against characters of a more
'hardcore' fan-base, like MGS. --- Redtooth |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 3:16:52 PM | message detail |
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but all estimates of Lloyd/Jak/HK-47 indicate they're roughly on the
fodder line, and Raiden beat the strongest of the three, HK, with some
ease. hmm. never thought about that match until now. thanks for reminding me it. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 3:23:02 PM | message detail |
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anyway here's more to think about: brawl SFF matches (well, if they have any, anyway). i know most of the brawl characters will be pretty much around the same level of strength, but who would you take out of the Brawl newbies to have the best chances of "SFF"? --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 3:24:23 PM | message detail |
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Diddy probably has the best chance of SFFing other newbie Brawl
characters because he's probably the one who was the most well-known
before Brawl (other than Snake and Sonic, of course...). --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 3:26:55 PM | message detail |
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it really depends on what you thought of pre-MGS4 Raiden last year.
if struggling with Sam Fisher is any sign (even considering that MGS
characters apparently do well in that format), it probably means he was
around the fodder line. I don't know that last year's matches - regardless of who it is - are going to mean a whole lot if we're looking at a one-on-one setup. But for all of Raiden's "disappointment" last year, I'm not all that worried about him this year. MGS4 should do wonders for him; he won't be taking on people like Kratos, but the Pac-Mans of the world aren't going to be threatening. As far as how much MGS4 has permeated the site, I'm starting to think that isn't as big a factor as it may seem. Don't need a poll to see what kind of effects it had leading up to its release and even in the post-release. Given how much more likable a character Raiden is, he should be fine. --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 3:37:54 PM | message detail |
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Kratos isn't a mountain, Raiden could totally take him !! --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 3:49:23 PM | message detail |
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I'm thinking I'd take Kratos over Raiden, but it's be a close match for sure. --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/11/2008 3:50:15 PM | message detail |
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Who would win in an epic battle of horrible pictures; Lettuce or toaster? --- Huh? |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 3:52:48 PM | message detail |
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Taking Kratos over Raiden in a close one either means you're thinking a bit too
highly of what MGS4 is going to do, or you don't think highly enough of
Kratos. No reason for him to be struggling with Raiden - he's a whole
tier above that. --- http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p275/kevinsmells1/Kevin/BigBoss.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 3:53:25 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Kratos beat the L-Block once, for cryin' out loud! --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/11/2008 3:53:39 PM | message detail |
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maybe he's thinking of the other Kratos --- ON The Insider: Vanessa Hudgens' Darker Side ON CHOW: Should KIDS be welcome in restaurants? |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/11/2008 3:55:03 PM | message detail |
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Kratos isn't a mountain, Raiden could totally take him !! this is where we realize Lopen is either crazy or joking. --- xyzzy nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2008 3:55:47 PM | message detail |
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We know that Raiden can at least beat Liquid! He doesn't have any arms that can be possessed anymore! --- CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 3:56:26 PM | message detail |
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Kratos Aurion? easily. Kratos from GoW? Kratos decimates. the only MGS character i'd take over him is Snake. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 4:00:07 PM | message detail |
| The thing is, while it might not do that much for
Ocelot or Snake, it'll have a bigger impact on Raiden, because he was
somewhat unliked even by the fans of the series before MGS4, and now
he's much better, and people like him more. He's gonna jump more than
anyone else from that series. Not enough to take down someone like
Kratos, but enough to take down plenty of people he couldn't before. --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 4:03:57 PM | message detail |
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Oh, MGS4 will do plenty for Snake and Ocelot - and one more unnamed character. Those two had the
best roles in the game. They may not boost to the same degree as
Raiden, but that's more because he has greater ground to make up.
Still, he's not going to jump so high than he's hanging with the
Kratos' of the world. I don't doubt him boosting a good bit, but no need to get carried away with it. --- http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p275/kevinsmells1/Kevin/BigBoss.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 4:05:04 PM | message detail |
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What has Kratos done? 43% on SF Ryu? That's not weak at all, but I
think Kratos is being given a bit too much credit from this topic. Give
me post MGS4 Raiden as capable of putting those numbers up. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/11/2008 4:05:36 PM | message detail |
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what has Raiden done? NOTHING AT ALL --- xyzzy nominate Tim from Braid - cool hair, tie physics, reality bending demigod goddamn |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 4:06:46 PM | message detail |
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is there a reason why Raiden would be that much better than Liquid Snake? --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/11/2008 4:07:28 PM | message detail |
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What has Kratos done? 43% on SF Ryu? That's not weak at all, but I
think Kratos is being given a bit too much credit from this topic. Give
me post MGS4 Raiden as capable of putting those numbers up. ...What? o_O --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 4:12:15 PM | message detail |
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Of course Raiden hasn't done anything at all. He's been in a SFF match
and a damn four way contest masquerading as a toaster. With the sketchy
stuff we have on him now and a huge MGS4 boost coming, you can't very
accurately speculate on his strength. Kratos is not that strong. Say
Raiden was at 21-22% last year, 23-24% when in non - toaster mode. MGS4
boosts him 4% or so. He's suddenly in striking range of Kratos. Kratos
is not that strong. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 4:14:02 PM | message detail |
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As for reasons for Raiden > Liquid: Has a more prominent role in the games he's in. Is playable. Is friggin awesome in MGS4. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| jonthomson | Posted 8/11/2008 4:14:33 PM | message detail |
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kratos is underrated --- Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179 Obama '08 imo |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2008 4:15:44 PM | message detail |
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he's in striking distance of pre-GoW2 Kratos... sure. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 4:16:12 PM | message detail |
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Kratos is not that strong. This is where you're wrong. Kratos has every reason to be stronger now than he was back in 2006 - ignoring his very impressive run last year for the sake of argument - where he put up great numbers against Ryu, more than I'd expect from Raiden, even post-MGS4. Hold that match again today and I'm not surprise if Kratos outright beats Ryu. Raiden ain't touching that. --- http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p275/kevinsmells1/Kevin/BigBoss.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 4:18:48 PM | message detail |
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Two of those arguments were used for him being more popular than Liquid last year, too ! --- http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p275/kevinsmells1/Kevin/BigBoss.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 4:23:02 PM | message detail |
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Let's see what Kratos did: Got 40% in a match with two Ninty Characters (one high fodder one low midcard) and the friggin Prince of All Cosmos. Got 32% in a match with two Ninty Characters (one low and high midcard) and L-Block. Barely edged out Riku in the third round and was eliminated (and given Snake/Sora one could argue that Riku would beat Kratos). I see nothing impressive last year. I see favorable bracket placement. GoW2 didn't have nearly the kick of GoW1 promotionwise, nor did it dramatically change Kratos's character or anything, nor was it released a significant time after GoW1... I'd expect an increase, but nothing that significant. 1% tops. He ain't touchin Ryu. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 4:24:00 PM | message detail |
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Yeah and outside of toaster mode I still claim he might've been !! --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 |
| ZFS | Posted 8/11/2008 4:31:20 PM | message detail |
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I don't know that I'd call 3% 'barely edging out' Riku. And if there's
anyone I'd expect to be hurt more by Snake in that match, it'd be
Kratos. And God of War 2 was a much bigger game when it came out than GoW1. No much room for argument there. These things aren't all at once with God of War either. Kratos gets stronger each year because the games tend to sell more once they're cut in price than they did at full price. But I think you're really underestimating its effects if you're calling for a 1% boost at most. When you only have one game to your name getting a sequel that's even more highly acclaimed will do wonders for you. --- http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p275/kevinsmells1/Kevin/BigBoss.jpg |
