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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 553

jonthomson | Posted 8/10/2008 1:06:46 PM | message detail
time to toss "SFF" around a few dozen more times to hit the quota

mewtwo did not get sff'ed, mewtwo is just that bad. jigglypuff would have done much better
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 1:07:05 PM | message detail
...Yoshi/Bowser is a match I don't really want to predict, but I'd probably still take Bowser.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
jonthomson | Posted 8/10/2008 1:07:34 PM | message detail
i'd take bowser over yoshi without thinking for very long about it
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 1:07:36 PM | message detail
I'm not "afraid" of Yoshi = Squall. I know it's not true. Not to say Squall would destroy him or anything. Probably something like 53-54% or something, I'd guess. It's not a huge overrating or anything, but it's enough that you notice it.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 1:08:19 PM | message detail
Jigglypusff.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2008 1:29:03 PM | message detail
The whole anomoly on that side of the bracket was in Snake's division. Though like you said, the sprites might have played a factor in that.

And gimme Yoshi over Bowser. Beating Dante > bombing against Crono.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 1:29:51 PM | message detail
Ganondorf, Sora, Auron, Bowser, and Ryu were not in Snake's division, I'll remind you.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2008 1:43:02 PM | message detail
There wasn't anything fishy about any of them except Sora.

Bowser just happened to have a great year in 2k5 and Ryu had a crappy year which made that match seem more extreme. Notice how both of them seem to fit in with earlier expectations in 2k6.

Ganondorf and Auron looked fine as well.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 1:44:50 PM | message detail
They looked fine, but their final showing in the stats is what's fishy. There are characters around them who ought not be. I don't think it's their matches that are the problem. I'm thinking the problem lies elsewhere.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 1:55:40 PM | message detail
So, guys, I know we've got a character contest on our hands right now, but I've tried to do a little bit of research on our past issue of GoldenEye/Super Mario 64. Since we don't have a bracket right now, please humor me -- I'm not letting this go to waste.



I've checked out various boards on GameFAQs and had various topics on them asking about their opinion of how SM64 and GE stacked against each other by preference only (and usually LoZ too to cover the big three for the system). Here's what I came across...and the tallies only cover what I felt like clearly in some way showed preference to one game over the other:

N64 board: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=916387&topic=44698980
8-2, GoldenEye

LoZ:OoT board: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=197771&topic=44740703
7-1, Super Mario 64

SM64 board: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=198848&topic=44740728
4-1, Super Mario 64

GE board: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=197462&topic=44740747
3-1, GoldenEye

Board 8: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44759650
20-15, Super Mario 64

GAMEFAQS TOTAL:
34-28, Super Mario 64 (54.84%)


Of course, the sample is small and it's just board-votes, but this shows out of over sixty votes that SM64 would hold its own and beat GE head-to-head. Now, that said, I still give more credit to GameFAQs's more official polls and lists and feel like these polls are a fair enough example that GE wouldn't be SFF'd much if any...

...and, while this may not account for anything, I have one more poll that will back me up for this that shouldn't be overlooked. From a topic I made at a site called Tilted Forum Project, the poll in it says:

TFP: [not linking to it since it's indirectly got 18+-year-old material on other parts of the site]
22-6, GoldenEye

FINAL TOTAL:
50-40, GoldenEye (55.56%)


Let's note that's a different site AND a different demographic -- they seem a bit more casual and are all (supposed to be!) 18 or older. That said, they blew SM64 out there. Meanwhile, if you look at the last "How old are you?" poll for GameFAQs from over a year ago:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2725

~62% of the site is 18 and up. Should GE be favored with older gamers at all like the TFP-topic suggests, even if it's by something small like a 53-47 margin, SM64 would still have to own the 18-and-under demographic here harder than it did in the board polls (if SM64 owned that demographic with 54.84% while GE took the other with 53%, SM64 would still barely lose).

There's only one way to find out what would happen in a contest poll between them, but between the board-polls I've taken, the research put in, and the various polls and Top 100 List we've seen on GameFAQs so far that put GE in a favorable light...I don't think SM64 will SFF GE. SM64 may have been SFF'd harder by LoZ:OoT like the LoZ:OoT board's eight-vote sample may suggest, but I think by this point SM64 would not SFF GE. It should be a relatively legit battle between their strengths.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2008 1:57:52 PM | message detail
The only problems I see in the 2006 male xstats are related to Yoshi overperforming to hell on Snake, and Sora/Riku riding KH2 to massive overperformances (and Axel as well I suppose). I don't think you remember how big that stupid game was around here.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
redrocket | Posted 8/10/2008 2:00:05 PM | message detail
Don't forget Kari.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2008 2:02:33 PM | message detail
I'm trying to avoid seriously discussing the female half of that bracket.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
jonthomson | Posted 8/10/2008 2:04:53 PM | message detail
So, guys, I know we've got a character contest on our hands right now, but I've tried to do a little bit of research on our past issue of GoldenEye/Super Mario 64. Since we don't have a bracket right now, please humor me -- I'm not letting this go to waste.

some bonus information if you're looking for more data - newgrounds' opinion on the matter from previous best game ever threads

2005: goldeneye (1st, SM64 5th)
2006: SM64 (8th, goldeneye 10th)
2007: SM64 (5th, goldeneye 8th)

compiling the 2008 info at the moment but interest is way down so should be ignored for sample size reasons
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 2:07:02 PM | message detail
Interesting jon -- it looks like it suggests GE's been falling over the years to SM64, and approximately since SM64DS came out (coincidence or no).
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 2:25:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, KHII was so big that it could barely win a poll over Elder Scrolls a few months after release.

Seriously though, I understand that KHII boosted them, but I don't think that's the sole explanation.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 2:27:06 PM | message detail
Hey guys, I'm now going on a week-long trip...hello, Vegas/Seattle!

I don't know if or how much I'll be around, but could you guys look out for my NRT-rally on this board and my "Contest Suggestions" board petition on Site Suggestions? Any bumps for either through the coming week would make you AWESOME.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/10/2008 2:28:04 PM | message detail
I'll keep an eye out for ya
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/10/2008 2:32:09 PM | message detail
War explains his views on the lol 2006 characters! Because he's bored!

Ganondorf: This puts Ganondorf about where he was on Samus in a direct match in 2k5. He seems fine to me.
Sora: I'm pretty sure post-KH2 Sora was being hyped up as the NN-killer.....until Snake/Sora happened. Admittedly, this was 3 years ago, so I may be confused. I would give him the benefit of the doubt, but everybody near him is either A) Upper-tier Final Fantasy, B) Has gotten a Game of the Year since that contest, or C) Ryu. And I like me some Street Fighter. Sorry Sora. :(

....oh, and Riku, but anybody who considers Riku > Sora because of BADASS > Main Character needs to go study Magus/Crono 2k4.

Auron: Auron is high-tier Final Fantasy, probably the best non-Vincent/Squall Square character we'd debate about.....but I think you need to appear before the PS2-era to beat Bowser or Ganondorf.

Bowser: .....I don't even know what to think about him, honestly. Screw you, Bowser.

Ryu: ....I'm going to pretend 2k5 didn't happen. Ryu ftw.

Riku: lol Solid ****
Yoshi: See Riku
Potential Debatable matches:

Everybody here > Riku. Hell, Zero > Riku, while we're at it. Hayabusa isn't that strong.
Ganondorf > Bowser
Bowser > Yoshi
Auron > Sora
Yoshi > Ryu........ouch
...gimme Auron > Yoshi

....hmm....anything interesting I'm missing?
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
XxSoulxX | Posted 8/10/2008 3:37:07 PM | message detail
Nope, that's pretty much how the matches will go there War.

And Harrich, you're looking too hard into that potential match. You've got an aging James Bond game Vs. an aging Mario game. Mario wins, simply because he's freaking Mario!
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Good Times,
Great Memories
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2008 3:58:49 PM | message detail
B8 Nomination update!


Altair - 37
GlaDOS - 37

Phoenix Wright - 33

Ike - 29

L-Block - 27

Charizard - 24
Travis Touchdown - 24

CATS - 19
Mewtwo - 19
Neku Sakuraba - 19

Angry Sun - 18
Diddy Kong - 18
Knuckles - 18
Sho Minamimoto - 18
Weighted Companion Cube - 18

Brock - 17
Captain Falcon - 17

Mega Man X - 16

Dan Hibiki - 15
Nana - 15
Niko Bellic - 15
Solid Snake - 15

Amaterasu - 14
Cid Highwind - 14
Kefka - 14

Deckard Cain - 13
Luigi - 13
Proto Man - 13
Revolver Ocelot - 13
Tifa Lockheart - 13

Kirby - 12
Meta Knight - 12
Terry Bogard - 12
Vivi - 12

Agent J - 11
Cecil Harvey - 11
Laguna Loire - 11
Mega Man - 11
Ness - 11
Wario - 11

Chun Li - 10
Dante - 10
Gina Vasquez - 10
Ken Masters - 10
King Dedede - 10
Midgar Zolom - 10
Rydia - 10
Samus Aran - 10
Seifer Almasy - 10
Squall Leonhart - 10
Yoshimitsu - 10
Zack Fair - 10


GlaDOS > the guru pick confirmed

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Yesmar | Posted 8/10/2008 4:13:06 PM | message detail
For what it's worth Sora/Ganondorf probably would have been fairly close in 2003, and they've both had reasons to gain since then.

There are characters around them who ought not be

Who besides Sora? The closest person who doesn't suffer from obvious anomalies is Bowser in one direction and Vincent/Squall in the other, and both are a fair amount away according to the X-Stats.

I should add that I think the X-Stats for 2006 partly look weird because they are based off of a Samus who's 45 on BL, a number which I think is definitely too high. This in turn inflates everyone's rankings.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/10/2008 5:08:54 PM | message detail
Sora is close to Ganondorf even if you place Samus like that. Samus isn't the problem.

honestly, the guy got 58% on Ryu; barely even better than 2003 Snake. Mega Man should be around that level no matter where you put Ryu in ANY of his years.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
XxSoulxX | Posted 8/10/2008 5:10:11 PM | message detail
Hey NGamer (or anyone else who will know this), how long does a nomination period usually take?
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Good Times,
Great Memories
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2008 5:22:01 PM | message detail
If I had to guess, I'd say the bracket comes out on the 18th, for a September 1st start.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/10/2008 7:51:42 PM | message detail
Generally something like 2 weeks, but the way SB has been pushing hard here, I'm thinking this will close sooner.

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/10/2008 7:55:41 PM | message detail
ugh does he want it to start in october?!?!
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 7:56:20 PM | message detail
The contests for the first few years only had nomination periods of a few days. It wasn't really until 2006 that Ceej started doing long nomination periods.

Glad to see Diddy is getting plenty of support!
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 8:13:36 PM | message detail
Tidus vs. Yuna

Who wins and why?
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2008 8:34:44 PM | message detail
Tidus as I see him SFF (or is it rSFF) ing who aren't Auron, and Yuna isn't that strong.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 8:35:49 PM | message detail
Yuna did well for herself in the female bracket. She did almost as well as Aeris on Zelda, and she didn't do that badly on Zelda. Maybe you don't take the female bracket seriously, but I don't really see anything questionable about any of her performances.

Honestly, the 60% on Chun-Li impressed me more than anything.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2008 8:37:43 PM | message detail
We currently have 142365 total nominations. So far its been steadily rising with no sign of slowing down.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2008 8:38:49 PM | message detail
I really don't take the female bracket seriously. She has strength, but not that much strength.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 8:39:35 PM | message detail
That means the number of people who have nominated is OVER 9000!

Approximately 9500 to be more precise, but that math also would include deletions.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 8:40:31 PM | message detail
Anyone who can score a quadrupling on anybody is worth respecting at least a little. And Joanna Dark isn't HORRIBLE fodder either.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/10/2008 8:45:16 PM | message detail
even if you dont trust those numbers look what she got on ganondorf.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 9:02:01 PM | message detail
Maybe it's just me, but I prefer getting ~39% on Ganondorf over getting ~42% on Kirby in 2k5. Since then, Yuna's matches make her look a lot better though there is SFF and LFF to account for. Yuna nearly matched Aeris against Zelda while Tidus got rocked by Squall in 2006, then Tidus lost to Pikachu by nearly 5% before getting being on the losing side of LFF by Vivi in the second round...compared to Yuna doubling Vercetti and nearly Liquid while MC was jacked up on Mountain Dew until Ganon/Luigi (although split) took her down in the third round...

...and within the FFX-story, as I understand it, Tidus/Yuna share FFX with Tidus probably getting more face-time while Yuna is dominant in FFX-2 (is Tidus even in FFX-2?). I mean...I might take Yuna > Tidus. I don't know, that'd be tough; that goes against what we've always thought about the FFX-hierarchy. Not impossible, just...tough.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2008 9:03:20 PM | message detail
Tidus is kind of the main goal of FFX-2.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Big Boss, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, von Karma
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/10/2008 9:04:29 PM | message detail
if you would take auron over tidus, i dont see why you couldnt take yuna if you thought she was stronger.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2008 9:08:34 PM | message detail
The main goal...? Is Yuna-n-friends rescuing him Princess-style, or is it something different?

Auron > Tidus is much easier because of how clearly favored Auron is. Tidus and Yuna are much less so and I won't act like I know how the fanbase fully works. Therefore, tough to me.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2008 9:42:50 PM | message detail
The problem with Teedus is it is hard to get a good read on him with Dream division crazyness, his destruction at Squall's hands, and the wole Vivi thing last year. I think he would win though, just due to the fact that he's the main character.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 12:10:49 AM | message detail
A fairly unliked (compared to other FF mains) main character, though. I'd say he's probably the first FF character who would be outclassed in these contests by more than one of his supporting characters. I don't think even Vaan would fall to anyone else in FFXII, besides the obvious Balthier. Zidane would lose to Vivi, and Squall and Cloud are the obvious strongest in their respective games. I'd take Yuna and Auron over Teedus for sure. Auron because he's got the "Cool other character" thing that Vinnie, Vivi, and Balthier have as well, and Yuna because she is the star of her own game.

Also, because I refuse to let this go, why don't you think that MM9 would impact Mega Man's strength any? if Tim from Braid does manage to get in, it wouldn't be only board support, which means that he has a fan base, which means that XBLA has at least a little bit of impact on the tournament. Add into it the fact that Mega Man is a name that people would buy a game from, especially for ten dollars, and also that it's going to be on PSN and the Wii Shop as well, I can see MM9 having at least a small impact, enough to boost him past Sonic, Chrono, and possibly one more NNer, depending on who's weak this year.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.
voltch | Posted 8/11/2008 1:00:25 AM | message detail
surely ashe>Vaan as well.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/11/2008 1:19:00 AM | message detail
I would take Auron, Yuna and even Rikku over Tidus without thinking a second about it. And I doubt that any of the other FFXII characters would lose to Vaan >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
transience | Posted 8/11/2008 1:20:07 AM | message detail
Braid has sold, according to the developer, 28,000 copies so far. that's not bad, but if you're comparing it to a major title, it's quite a bit less.

excellent game, by the way. when board 8 discovers it en masse, you'll be seeing dozens of topics about it.
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xyzzy
nominate Tim from Braid -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CByBMKiiHtA awww yeah
yoshifan823 | Posted 8/11/2008 1:38:41 AM | message detail
Yeah, I plan on getting it when I get my cards from Target. They're on sale, 1600 points for fifteen bucks. Everyone should buy Braid with this money. Braid, Geometry Wars 2, and Ticket to Ride.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.
Lopen | Posted 8/11/2008 2:44:58 AM | message detail
Okay, I don't really have much of importance to say right now, because I'm tired, but I want BT to stop taking credit for calling the monstrosity they call 2k7 Master Chief. You called him to reach the semis, but newsflash: So did like a quarter of b8. I was the only regular here who had him advancing in the semis (which would've happened had it not been for L-Block...!)

... never mind that I ALSO had him advancing in the finals. Point is that I was the bold one for MC, and a couple of other people on the board whose names elude me. Not you, though. You can keep your Pikachu and Zero, but step off of MC, boy !!
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
_Yonex_ | Posted 8/11/2008 3:04:40 AM | message detail
What matches would you all hate to see, just because they are so extremely hard to predict?
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Nominate Brock from the Pokemon Series for Character Battle VII, or Onix will use Bind on you forever.
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 8/11/2008 4:03:49 AM | message detail
Calling what happened with MC last year is not really all that impressive.

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/11/2008 7:05:04 AM | message detail

_Yonex_ (#448)
What matches would you all hate to see, just because they are so extremely hard to predict?


Those would be the matches I want to see most! Not like I ever have any chance of winning anyway.

I'd love to see a Snake/Samus rematch and Sonic, Mega Man, and Crono face each other, perhaps with Vincent or Squall in the mix as well.

If this bracket's set up well, we could have one hell of a contest.
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i got nuthin
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