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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 553

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:18:59 PM | message detail
My thoughts on those matches:

Vincent/Crono - I have to go with Crono here. My gut tells me that Link had a definite effect in that match last year, and Zero, another SNES character probably didn't help matters much
Vincent/Squall- This is my dream match at the moment. Both have shown reasons that they can win. Vincent by beating out Crono last year, and Squall for almost beating Sonic despite Sora's presence. He is definitely more than Kingdom Hearts.
Mega Man/Sonic- Another great potential match. They were dead even in 2k5 and 2k6, and last year Sonic looked like crap despite having Brawl. That combined with MM9 coming in September makes me think Mega Man should take it.
Ganondorf/Auron- Auron has been impressing and Ganondorf disappointing lately, I think this rematch could go to Auron
Dante/Luigi- Luigi has been hella impressive the last 2 years, in beating out Zero, Kirby and his run last year. But can he beat a Dante that just got DMC4? Possible. Depends on where you think Luigi is in relation to Yoshi nowadays.
Zero/Master Chief- If you had asked me this last year I would've said Master Chief, but Halo 3 has kinda died down and been overshadowed by CoD4 as the XBL hit, so I think this year we'll see a more down to earth MC. I'll give it to Zero simply because he rocks
Tifa/Auron- This is a tough one for me. EVERY female character that was in 2k6 looked like crap last year, except Tifa who didn't even get in. Something just bugs me about her and I think like Yuna and Zelda, her 2k6 run was a complete fluke.
Ryu/Bowser- Bowser peaked in 2k5, and looked like crap the last 2 contests. Ryu on the other hand had his worst year in 2k5, but looked great the last 2 years. I think Ryu has this in the bag, especially with Street Fighter 4 on the horizon
Zelda/Zero- For me, this is basically the same as Tifa/Auron. Zelda looked like crap, and got much less on Vincent than Zero got on Crono last year. Zero easily.

Also, good to see some people taking Mega Man. Good to see people are starting to lose that notion that he dropped in 2k6.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ZFS | Posted 8/9/2008 3:20:57 PM | message detail
I don't know about a decline, but I'm not expecting any boosts for the Nintendo guys, save for the ones like Ike or Pit who have reason to benefit heavily from Brawl's release.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/9/2008 3:21:36 PM | message detail
Beating Sephiroth with Link in the poll is crap?

Slaughtering Mega Man with Yoshi in the poll is crap?

lol turtle
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:21:45 PM | message detail
Also, like Lopen, I can't help but get the vibe that Nintendo is on a downturn. I can't see Brawl having that much effect since the only people who talk about it now are people that were talking about Melee for 5 years. If Snake didn't have MGS4 this year, I would have pegged him for a decrease.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
SFF_potential | Posted 8/9/2008 3:22:09 PM | message detail
Angry Sun has 52 nominations now according to its rally topic
how do people here feel about how well it would actually do in the contest (compared to say CATS)?
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Nominate Putt-Putt from Putt-Putt Joins the Parade for this years character battle!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:24:03 PM | message detail
Samus last year was riding off a pretty huge game. MP3 was the first AAA Wii title for 2007 and it was released less than a week before the contest started. It makes sense that she would seem impressive. I have a feeling Samus will disappoint some people this year, assuming she isn't removed from the bracket.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:25:31 PM | message detail
Angry Sun might do slightly better than CATS, but I refuse to seriously discuss joke character prospects. L-block was funny, but its charm was in the novelty of a joke character beating the crap out of Link/Cloud. Now that novelty isn't there and all these sheep nominating 30 joke characters are going to be sorely disappointed.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/9/2008 3:27:49 PM | message detail
Sephiroth vs. Snake 1 on 1

Bold prediction, Snake doesn't get within 5%. =D

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
ZFS | Posted 8/9/2008 3:28:23 PM | message detail
bold prediction: snake rightfully winz

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swirIdude | Posted 8/9/2008 3:28:35 PM | message detail
Bold prediction, Snake doesn't get within 5%. =D

How is this bold?

Oh wait, drooling Sephiroth fanboy.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/9/2008 3:29:03 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Snake will have 55% at the freeze.
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:29:08 PM | message detail
I can't see Snake beating Sephiroth. It took Cloud to take all the fangirl support away before Snake could outlast him in a 4 way, I can't see him breaking 45% on him at best.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Lopen | Posted 8/9/2008 3:29:20 PM | message detail
If Snake didn't have MGS4 this year, I would have pegged him for a decrease.

My thoughts exactly. I'm thinking every Smash character aside from the ones that need the exposure like Ike or Pit are going to drop this year, and drop good. Honestly, with how big Smash was hyped, I think the buzz about Brawl's release was greater even in 2006 than the buzz about the game is now. People are mostly done with Brawl by now... two months ago I wouldn't be saying this, but with a game like that I think they hype does pretty much everything the release will, maybe more.

I don't think Sonic vs Mega Man is a lock for Sonic... it's just that they were so close in 2005 and Sonic DOES easily have more reason to increase... but honestly, it's kind of a tossup for me.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
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SFF_potential | Posted 8/9/2008 3:30:16 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Link wil beat L-Block in the 3rd roung
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Nominate Putt-Putt from Putt-Putt Joins the Parade for this years character battle!
ZFS | Posted 8/9/2008 3:31:09 PM | message detail
You're getting a little crazy if you think Brawl releasing will cause characters to drop. I'm all for Nintendo characters leveling out, but Brawl wasn't rejected at release.

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/9/2008 3:31:36 PM | message detail
L-Block isn't going to beat anyone with a reasonably strong fanbase head to head.

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/9/2008 3:32:00 PM | message detail
I'd love to hear ANY logic behind Link dropping.
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:33:22 PM | message detail
But there was so much hype pre-Brawl about who would be in the game etc. and then after it came out, people played it for 2 weeks and it wasn't mentioned again.

That plus the idiotic direction Nintendo has been heading this year makes me think that a lot of Nintendo fanboys will be looking for another bandwagon to hop on.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:35:04 PM | message detail
Link could drop more than anyone and still be the strongest character.

If Nintendo keeps it up though, I can see him losing in a couple of years.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Lopen | Posted 8/9/2008 3:35:09 PM | message detail
I'm all for Nintendo characters leveling out, but Brawl wasn't rejected at release.

Sure. I just think "leveling out" is reverting to 2005 or 2004 levels, that's all.

What I'm saying is: Brawl Hype in 2007 > Brawl Hype in 2006 > Brawl's effect now.
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Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321
Yesmar | Posted 8/9/2008 3:35:10 PM | message detail
I'd love to hear ANY logic behind Link dropping.

If Ocarina of Time is starting to wear off it would probably drop Link regardless of Brawl, which I imagine makes up a much smaller part of his popularity.

And while Sonic does have reason to rise, keep in mind that he looked pretty bad last year. He almost lost to Squall TWICE! He's not particularly safe among the Noble Nine.
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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2008 3:35:26 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 8/9/2008 3:35:32 PM | message detail
Sephiroth vs. Snake 1 on 1

Bold prediction, Snake doesn't get within 5%. =D


this poll needs to be held

it would be a trap poll and anyone who votes for sephy would be no longer allowed to vote in character battles due to extremely poor tastes.

send this to bacon now
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/9/2008 3:40:41 PM | message detail

it would be a trap poll and anyone who votes for snake would be no longer allowed to vote in character battles due to extremely poor tastes.


fixed

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 3:41:57 PM | message detail
Or we just ban ExTha and everyone's happy
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ZFS | Posted 8/9/2008 3:48:15 PM | message detail
The buzz surrounding the game did die out shortly after its release, but that's just people coming down from the hype high - it happens with every game; Brawl shouldn't be an exception.

You still see plenty talk about it today, though, and lots of people still playing it. It may not be at the deafening levels it was at its launch, but that doesn't mean much one way or the other. Those Brawl vs. Melee polls that Yoblazer does here are enough to convince me that people love the game - and that should be enough to maintain most of the Nintendo dudes.

I do agree with you on that 'downturn' vibe, though. I just don't think it'll result in wild drops so soon.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/9/2008 4:04:05 PM | message detail
People are still talking about Brawl on this board.

Brawl's still talked about all over the internet.

Hell, what do you think people are going to play on their Wiis for the rest of 08?

An overall Nintendo decrease is just wishful thinking. I could see it next year, but Nintendo's going to be as strong as ever this contest.
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i got nuthin
XxSoulxX | Posted 8/9/2008 4:04:15 PM | message detail
I think Nintendo and Square will remain static, while other characters from other franchises will rise. Just because Square didn't really do anything the past couple of years, and Nintendo is not the really popular choice amongst hardcore gamers like it was in the past. Now, characters like Master Chief, Ryu, Dante, and others in that area without Nintendo/Square backing will look stronger because of this.

Here's hoping I'm right. Ryu > Ganondorf? Hell yeah, sign me up!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 4:04:45 PM | message detail
I don't know, it's hard to argue this because it really is just a feeling, but my gut is telling me that Nintendo is going to disappoint this year.

Keeping in mind this is the same gut that told me to go with Pikachu and Master Chief last year.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/9/2008 4:04:47 PM | message detail
Where are you guys counting nominations
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/9/2008 4:06:40 PM | message detail
This bandwagon should be good for a laugh, at least.
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i got nuthin
yoshifan823 | Posted 8/9/2008 4:08:30 PM | message detail
OK, BOLD PREDICTION time.

Nintendo is set for a big drop this year. Why? Because, despite the popularity of the Wii, and the continued support of the DS, the characters that Nintendo made popular aren't being featured, so much as new and more unique ideas. The last game (excluding Brawl) for Mario happened right at the end of the last contest, Link and Zelda haven't had one since TP, Kirby hasn't had a real game release since Squeak Squad, Fox since Command, and neither of those games were very well recieved, compared to even Canvas Curse and Assault. Samus's game is fairly recent, but, again, didn't create as much hype as even Galaxy. If you see a rise, expect it to be in Mario, Luigi, and Bowser, and not too many others.

Nintendo's supposed ace in the hole, Brawl, hasn't had quite the longevity of hype that Melee had, so I don't think any Brawl exclusive chars, or ones that gain their popularity from Brawl, will succeed. Ike, Marth, The Ice Climbers, even Ness and especially Lucas just won't be able to win a match, because Brawl isn't the phenomenon that Melee was. Mario and Link are still icons, and there's no reason to suggest that Cloud and co. from the FF games haven't dropped as well. Crisis Core came and went, and the rest of the revival didn't exactly set the world on fire, and that was 2-3 years ago.

I'm predicting this year to be Snake's year to jump. Whatever boost people will receive won't be lost on him, and MGS4 is going to really boost him. I'm predicting a much more even field, with the Noble 9 finally being broken in a one-on-one setting, with Chrono being the weak link, barring a sudden announcement of the US version of CT.

This brings us to the two NN characters that I have yet to mention, Sonic and Mega Man. Each has a new game that's been announced, Sonic has Unleashed, and Mega Man has MM9. Unleashed has some big detractions, namely the Werewolf sections, but MM9 is getting much warmer feedback, especially for people who haven't liked any Mega Man games since the NES days. With the true return of the original Mega Man (Sorry X,) I'd expect to see him boost, and Sonic, still hot off of Brawl, to drop only slightly, but if a bigger drop is had, I know why.

I'm thinking that Blizzard might also have a much bigger impact, considering WoW's continued popularity, and the announcements of Starcraft II and Diablo III. Fenix will rise in popularity, especially if the contest lasts long enough for GoW 3 to come out, MC will either stay the same or drop slightly, and don't be surprised to see the MK ninjas ready for battle, due to the MKvDC game releasing shortly. Despite some resistance, people are slowly starting to wonder if the game might be good after all.

And finally, don't expect joke characters to have an impact. L Block was all well and good, but he's from a game that has almost unanimous approval. The Guitar Hero games have come under fire recently due to Rock Band's increasing fanbase, and there's never been, nor will there ever be, a huge audience for original XBox Live Arcade games. All the others are just too obscure to even warrant a nomination.

Now, if I turn out to be completely wrong, I won't be terribly surprised, but GameFAQs, along with gaming in general, is taking a more casual turn, and only the true icons (Mario, Link, Sonic, Mega Man) and the new hotness (Fenix, whoever else has a game coming out soon, Snake) will be able to survive.
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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2008 4:09:30 PM | message detail
If people are expecting some kind of Nintendo increase across the board, or for them to just dominate, then yeah, I'd say there's disappointment coming. But it's more than likely not going to be in either extreme - the big Nintendo guys will stay the same, the weaker ones from Brawl will jump up a bit.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 8/9/2008 4:15:27 PM | message detail

ZFS (#283)
If people are expecting some kind of Nintendo increase across the board, or for them to just dominate, then yeah, I'd say there's disappointment coming. But it's more than likely not going to be in either extreme - the big Nintendo guys will stay the same, the weaker ones from Brawl will jump up a bit.



This makes sense to me. Brawl was definitely well-received and is still well-loved by many fans, so it doesn't make any sense for characters to drop. At the same time, it probably won't be winning over enough new players to give boosts to mainstays like Link, Mario, and Samus. Of course, characters like Pit, Meta-Knight, and Ike are gonna get huge boosts, but Brawl should still be enough to keep the big guns constant.

Plus, I think everyone's jumping the gun on the Nintendo backlash thing. Their E3 sucked and there's nothing on the horizon besides Animal Crossing, but I don't really think the backlash is in full-swing yet. It's developing, and slowly people are getting bitter, but it's not a force of its own yet. Right now, Nintendo's strength should still be the same for most of its bigger characters, as the backlash isn't nearly that big enough.

A year or two from now without any big hits, yeah, I easily see a decrease. I just don't think any backlash has sufficiently developed yet for fans to gather and publicly decry Nintendo. Unless Nintendo gets some more hardcore games out, though, a Nintendo decrease is likely inevitable. Just don't expect it in this contest.
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i got nuthin
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/9/2008 4:20:23 PM | message detail
Anyone think Bowser has a shot at going up a percent or two from Galaxy? Maybe even enough to challenge Ganondorf?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/9/2008 4:22:21 PM | message detail
I personally don't think so. He'd probably get a bigger boost from actually being playable and fun in Brawl, although I expect him to stay relatively static.
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Nominate Darth Revan for the GameFAQs Character Battle VII
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/9/2008 4:23:20 PM | message detail
And by "playable," I of course mean "doesn't suck nearly as bad as he did in Melee." He's a fun character this time around.
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Nominate Darth Revan for the GameFAQs Character Battle VII
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/9/2008 4:23:24 PM | message detail
I'm gonna laugh when most of the Brawl characters that make the contest just straight up dominate...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 4:23:51 PM | message detail
If people are expecting some kind of Nintendo increase across the board, or for them to just dominate, then yeah, I'd say there's disappointment coming. But it's more than likely not going to be in either extreme - the big Nintendo guys will stay the same, the weaker ones from Brawl will jump up a bit.

See, people ARE expecting Nintendo to dominate. BRAWLFEAR is in full swing and a lot of people are in for a rude awakening. You won't be surprised because your expectations aren't high.

I'm not saying that suddenly Cloud is a threat to Link, but don't expect random Brawl character #20 to do anything. The big NIntendo guns will stay the same and all the lower characters are going to drop, like Ike, Meta-Knight, Fox etc.

Well, maybe not Meta-Knight because of Kirby Superstar DS coming out soon.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 4:25:03 PM | message detail
Both Bowser and Ganondorf looked like crap last year, so either one winning wouldn't surprise me. I think they're more high carders as opposed to elites. The current elites being Squall, Vincent and Auron.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/9/2008 4:29:39 PM | message detail
Random Brawl character #20 can win a match against the right competition, though. Fodder gets in every year, and a Brawl character could end up with a favorable draw and nab one. I won't be taking Ike against Squall, but Ike against one of those obscure RPG characters that gets in? Gimme.
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Nominate Darth Revan for the GameFAQs Character Battle VII
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2008 4:30:52 PM | message detail
EVERY female character that was in 2k6 looked like crap last year, except Tifa who didn't even get in.

I thought Rikku looked pretty good...

I'm also glad that people are optimistic about Squall beating Vincent. I wish I were that optimistic.

Also, people talking about Nintendo "dropping" because of Brawl is like that discussion we had about Twilight Princess the other day, where people were even suggesting that it'd LOSE to The Wind Waker because people weren't talking as much about it AFTER as they were before. THIS HAPPENS WITH EVERY GAME EVER. The game's NOT hated. It IS going to dominate the GotY poll, and Nintendo will be fine.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Locke, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, Manfred von Karma
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 4:34:54 PM | message detail
On a completely unrelated note, how are people feeling about Guitar Hero 3 and Rock Band for the games contest? High tier?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
yoshifan823 | Posted 8/9/2008 4:35:09 PM | message detail
Bowser's prolly gonna be able to beat Ganondorf. Eh in Brawl+Galaxy>Awful in Brawl.

Also, I forsee FF taking a huge hit, just based on casual gaming picking up steam. I mean, here's the top ten games list.

* 01 Soulcalibur IV X360
* 02 Soulcalibur IV PS3
* 03 Final Fantasy IV DS
* 04 Super Smash Bros. Brawl WII
* 05 Metal Gear Solid 4 PS3
* 06 Pokemon Diamond DS
* 07 Final Fantasy XII PS2
* 08 Grand Theft Auto IV X360
* 09 Final Fantasy Tactics A2 DS
* 10 Braid X360

Of those, we have 3 FF games, and the rest are games that alot of people have been buying. These games generally dictate who sees the opening pages, so needless to say, Snake being in more of these games than anyone barring Pikachu, is going to have a huge effect.

Also, question for you all, how do you think Niko Bellic would fair? Better or worse than CJ, Tommy, Fenix? The game's been fairly well received, and he seems like even more of a relatable character than the others, so I'd say he could enter as a mid-carder, and even surprise some people.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2008 4:35:50 PM | message detail
Guitar Hero or Rock Band have no chance of being HIGH tier, but mid tier I can buy.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Locke, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, Manfred von Karma
jonthomson | Posted 8/9/2008 4:38:01 PM | message detail
Also, question for you all, how do you think Niko Bellic would fair? Better or worse than CJ, Tommy, Fenix?

niko would probably be somewhere below tommy and above cj. probably above fenix just due to recentness.

also, there's no way GH/RB would be top tier. midcard.
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SFF_potential | Posted 8/9/2008 4:38:35 PM | message detail
random brawl character #20 or Vyse?

for a games contest, i feel guitar hero 3 and rock band would beat fodder, but would struggle to beat any game with a decent playrate
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Nominate Ark from Terranigma for the 2008 character battle!
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2008 4:39:15 PM | message detail
I think Vyse suffered greatly due to the site shift in 2005. I doubt he's at the old VFL anymore, unfortunately.
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CBVII Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Seifer, Diddy, Akuma, Roxas, Ocelot, Locke, Phoenix Wright, Gray Fox, Neku, Laguna, Protoman, Ken Masters, Manfred von Karma
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 4:45:04 PM | message detail
Fenix > Vercetti > Niko > CJ

People were talking about Gears for over a year, and Gears 2 is highly anticipated.

Vercetti came when Grand Theft Auto was at its peak, but since then, the idea is less novel and I think Niko's strength will reflect this.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2008 4:46:16 PM | message detail
Random Brawl character > Vyse

I didn't say they'd be fodder, but I wouldn't be taking any of them over, oh let's say Sub-Zero or Ryu Hayabusa
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
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