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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 553

ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/8/2008 9:28:13 PM | message detail
These are the characters that are recommended when you try to nominate, so they're the ones with lots of noms, right?

Here's the list I made:

Alyx Vance - Half-Life 2
Lucario - Pokemon
Heishirou Mitsurugi - Soul Edge
Yoshimitsu - Tekken
Drebin - Metal Gear Solid 4
Nathan Drake - Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
Axel Steel - Guitar Hero
Grim Ripper - Guitar Hero
Niko Bellic - Grand Theft Auto IV
Kaim Argonar - Lost Odyssey
Sho Minamimoto - The World Ends With You
Neku Sakuraba - The World Ends with You
Emil Castagnier - Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World
Typhlosion - Pokemon
Cid Highwind - Final Fantasy VII
Rydia - Final Fantasy IV
Charizard - Pokemon
Kain Highwind - Final Fantasy IV
Jackie Estacado - The Darkness (didn't originate in a game)
Diddy Kong - Donkey Kong Country
Lucario - Pokemon
Lulu - Final Fantasy X-2 (wrong game lolz)
Commander Shepard - Mass Effect
Fei Fong Wong - Xenogears
Garchomp - Pokemon (wat)
Hector - Fire Emblem
Yuffie Kisaragi - Final Fantasy VII
The Dog - Duck Hunt
Professor Layton - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
Altair - Assassin's Creed
Presea Combatir - Tales of Symphonia
Rinoa Heartily - Final Fantasy VIII
Seifer Almasy - Final Fantasy VIII

Other interesting results:

Guybrush Threepwood - The Secret of Monkey Island
Haseo - .hack//G.U.
Ada Wong - Resident Evil 2
Chris Redfield - Resident Evil
Claire Redfield - Resident Evil 2
Matt - Wii Sports
Isabella Ivy Valentine - SoulCalibur
Aya Brea - Parasite Eve
Bidoof - Pokemon
Laharl - Disgaea
Akuma - Super Street Fighter II Turbo
Ramza Beoulve - Final Fantasy Tactics
JC Denton - Deus Ex
Cecil Harvey - Final Fantasy IV
Mewtwo - Pokemon
Kairi - Kingdom Hearts
Amaterasu - Okami
Ken - Street Fighter
Little Mac - Punch-Out!!
Amy Rose - Sonic Adventure
Zelos Wilder - Tales of Symphonia
Arthas Menethil - Warcraft III
Proto Man - Mega Man 3
Midgar Zolom - Final Fantasy VII
Captain Olimar - Pikmin
Jay Solano - Operation Shadow
Felix - Golden Sun
Jade Curtiss - Tales of the Abyss
Miles Edgeworth - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney
Nathan Hale - Resistance: Fall of Man
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Yesmar | Posted 8/8/2008 9:43:57 PM | message detail
Where did you find that list?
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:00:57 PM | message detail
He tested slight variations to find which names would be automatically suggested to him.

Wow, SB went from the sticky straight into the main page link, THEN straight into the Poll of the Day mention. He's really serious about getting this bracket off the ground soon!

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:04:55 PM | message detail
Is that a contest I hear calling?

It might finally be time to dust off those spread betting excel files!

: )
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983 - 4640 - 3352 Brawl Code
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 10:05:28 PM | message detail
i wonder how he made it like that
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
RockMFR 5 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:11:06 PM | message detail
I noticed that you can view the source of the nominations page and essentially see the current number of nominations (delete and then re-submit a character, then look at the input value). There have already been over 30000 nominations.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:14:39 PM | message detail
Wow, that's completely right. Just tried it. My Vyse nomination was the 42nd ever.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:15:21 PM | message detail
wait.....how? Where is the input value?
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:15:31 PM | message detail
Although I doubt it factors in deletes, so it could be much low.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:16:37 PM | message detail
Nominate something

View Page source

Ctrl + F Input

all your nominations should be lined up.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:20:37 PM | message detail
Just did an experiment. In one minute there were 116 nominations.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
swirIdude | Posted 8/8/2008 10:22:17 PM | message detail
Uh, I'm not sure I understand. Does this method track how many nominations a character has, or just how many nominations come in a minute?
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA!
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:23:41 PM | message detail
How many total nominations, not taking into account re-nominations from deletions or anything. Either that or Mewtwo has 30k+ nominations.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
swirIdude | Posted 8/8/2008 10:25:09 PM | message detail
Either that or Mewtwo has 30k+ nominations.

Would show that GameFAQs has quality nominators who can see that even a first round loss can show a strong character.
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA!
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:30:45 PM | message detail
Awesome find Rocky.

Guy, here is the section of code you're looking for after you press Control + U on the noms page.


<tr class="even"><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="6136">Altair</td><td>Assassin's Creed</td></tr>
<tr ><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="7988">GlaDOS</td><td>Portal</td></tr>
<tr class="even"><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="8031">Diddy Kong</td><td>Donkey Kong Country</td></tr>
<tr ><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="8138">Meta Knight</td><td>Kirby</td></tr>

<tr class="even"><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="8257">Charizard</td><td>Pokemon</td></tr>
<tr ><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="8357">Fox McCloud</td><td>Star Fox</td></tr>
<tr class="even"><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="9460">Seifer Almasy</td><td>Final Fantasy VIII</td></tr>
<tr ><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="9572">Angry Sun</td><td>Super Mario Bros. 3</td></tr>
<tr class="even"><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="11520">Gilgamesh</td><td>Final Fantasy V</td></tr>

<tr ><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="11878">Tifa Lockhart</td><td>Final Fantasy VII</td></tr>
<tr class="even"><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="12229">Ken Masters</td><td>Street Fighter II</td></tr>
<tr ><td><input type="radio" name="del" value="32690">Joanna Dark</td><td>Perfect Dark</td></tr>
</tbody>

That Altair nom of mine was only 6 hours ago- the nomination form has really exploded since then, as we've gone from only 6,000 noms to over 32,500 in that short span.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:37:15 PM | message detail
We should measure how the nomination period attacks. Will this explosion continue for the next week, or die off in a few days or even tomorrow?

Started: 1:45:47 P.M. August 9th
At (whenever this post time is), about 6 hours later, there have been 33780 nominations

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:38:04 PM | message detail
Make that 9 hours later.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:38:42 PM | message detail
How many noms do you think went to Link, Cloud, or Sephiroth?
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:39:37 PM | message detail
A lot. The casual nominator has little concept of rallies and characters that are sure to make it in. They just nominate their favorites.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 10:43:20 PM | message detail
wow. this is awesome. let's try and seed the contest.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 10:48:34 PM | message detail
wait i just entered link.. it's just total nominations after all.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
chaosarcher07 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:49:37 PM | message detail
so is anyone really expecting much out of Altair?
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Got crushed by Explicit Content in the Guru Contest!
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=6054&group=4&game=6&diff=4
RockMFR 5 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:49:53 PM | message detail
It'd be useful if someone applied some statistics to figure out approximately how many noms a character needs to get in.

So let's assume there are 400 characters who make up a roughly normal distribution of 100,000 noms, and 64 characters in the bracket. So to get in, a character needs to be in the 84 percentile. Assume a mean of 250 and a standard deviation of 80. Thus, a character would need to get about 330 votes to get in. If 128 characters, then about 290 votes.

Pulling numbers out of nowhere is a fun sport.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:50:24 PM | message detail
Assassin's Creed wasn't in the GotY thing, right?


....so do we have anything to judge Altair on?
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 10:50:46 PM | message detail
well how do we know it counts deleted entries or not?
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:52:29 PM | message detail
Well, we could give it a few days and then test how many suggested characters come up using what Zen did up above. And then take Rock's method and use it against how many total ballots have come in by then, and we should be able to get a decent estimate on how many you'd need to crack the top 64.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:53:39 PM | message detail
Assuming Mega Man X noms don't auto-go towards Mega Man, could both Mega Man and Mega Man X be 4 seeds or lower?

That could be the biggest underseeding in a long time.
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:54:50 PM | message detail
It does count deleted entries. The numbers you're seeing are the id values assigned to each vote, and they're just counting up from 1. So if I cast noms #1, 4, 6, and 10, and then deleted 6, the next vote cast would still be 11- the whole system of ids wouldn't be reassigned to make my next vote "10."

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:55:52 PM | message detail
Me and Zen tested some more on our own, and we found some interesting stuff.

-Being in a previous contest doesn't mean you'll be recommended.
-That said, most people from previous contests are. Amy freaking Rose is on the recommendation.
-The par for getting on is very low. Etna from Disgaea can be recommended.
-It is possible to fall off. Junpei Iori received a bit of rallying earlier on today, then lost it. He was on the recommended list earlier, and now isn't.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 10:57:58 PM | message detail
Oh, and pretty much all the past joke entries are on the list. Nidoran F, Mudkip, Tingle (>_>)...you name it.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2008 10:58:24 PM | message detail
btw;

Wario > Shadow the Hedgehog in a rematch

Y/n?

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:58:50 PM | message detail
Really? Well now, that IS interesting. In that case there must be a system in place so that only the top tier of characters nommed so far will show up as suggested options... maybe it's like a Top 500?

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 10:58:53 PM | message detail
N
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 11:00:10 PM | message detail
Wario > Shadow the Hedgehog in a rematch

Y/n?


don't see why Wario > Donkey Kong.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
Stylin_Moves | Posted 8/8/2008 11:00:49 PM | message detail
O.o

Out of all my nominees, the Ancient minister from SSBB is winning by 15k votes.
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Putt-Putt, President Madagascar(pandemic2), Orange Fret, King Harkinian(Link Faces of Evil)
Nominate them. DO IT NAOUGHW!
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 11:01:13 PM | message detail
Another tidbit for ngamer:

Gina Vasquez, the most joke character not named L-Block so far, has 8 nomination so far. At least. She isn't on the recommended list.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 11:01:56 PM | message detail
Out of all my nominees, the Ancient minister from SSBB is winning by 15k votes.

Not how it works. Your Ancient Minister nomination was the 15000 nomination; it's not how many he has.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/8/2008 11:04:23 PM | message detail
-Travis Touchdown also has 8 nominations at least. He is on the recommended list.
-Otacon is not on the list. Drebin, the merchant from MGS4 and a joke favorite...is.

All this information means...something. I think.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
transience | Posted 8/8/2008 11:05:54 PM | message detail
Tim's on the list.

the list is good.
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 11:09:21 PM | message detail
Excellent work KP and Zen. Keep digging.

And just found an example of a former contestant with not enough noms to be recommended - Master Hand.

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 11:10:05 PM | message detail
What about Kuja?
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/8/2008 11:11:26 PM | message detail
Kuja doesn't make the cut, nor does Sin. Seems alot of the villains have been forgotten... and I can see why!

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2008 11:11:27 PM | message detail

don't see why Wario > Donkey Kong.


Because Wario has had Wario Ware and is one of the best in Brawl, that's why!

Don't let the SFF fool you, Wario is for real now.

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 11:12:04 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong would SFF Wario.

I went there.
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 11:13:25 PM | message detail
i doubt Wario Ware was as big as DK.

i also doubt Wario is as liked as him either.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2008 11:13:46 PM | message detail
er, Donkey Kong Country that is.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2008 11:13:50 PM | message detail
Don't let the SFF fool you, Wario is for real now.

well then

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2008 11:14:52 PM | message detail
HM how about you talk to me condescendingly one more time and I'll delete Big Boss from my nominations?!?!?!!?!?!?

Also, I need to add The King of Hyrule to my nominations list

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/8/2008 11:15:08 PM | message detail
It's King Harkinian, ExTha!
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Nominate King Harkinian from Link: The Faces of Evil!
Mah boi, this contest is what all true fanboys strive for!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2008 11:15:45 PM | message detail
Harkinian?! Gotcha!

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Where there are RKOs, there will always be ExThaNemesis.
rRARARWraraerARARAR
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