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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 549 (#2)

H__RR____H | Posted 5/11/2008 10:59:39 AM | message detail
There's some odd Lucario-love in the match-up section...but yeah, weird.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
H__RR____H | Posted 5/11/2008 1:09:27 PM | message detail
Now, for probably my last kicks on this listing, I've tried to group the characters by series (or at least similar characteristics). I've averaged their individual scores together and given the series/groups their rating based off of that. I'm only doing this for the pure-GameFAQs listing because maybe this could be a loose idea of how some of the series may or may not pick up in popularity in their coming releases.

To note: third-party = Solid/Sonic, newer one-rep = Samus/Falcon/Olimar, retro one-rep = Pit/ICs/ROB/G&W, and Mario spin-offs = Yoshi/Wario. The rest should be obvious.


MATCH-UPS (212) - GameFAQs
Series - Average Votes (reps in group)
Kirby: 194 2/3 (3)
Fire Emblem: 94 1/2 (2)
third-party characters: 84 (2)
Star Fox: 55 2/3 (3)
Pokemon: 48 1/4 (4)
Mother: 29 (2)
newer one-rep series: 15 (3)
retro one-rep series: -21 (4)
Legend of Zelda: -27 1/2 (4)
Super Mario Bros.: -118 1/2 (4)
Donkey Kong: -156 (2)
Mario spin-offs: -210 (2)

TOP FIVE (143) - GameFAQs
Series - Average Points (reps in group)
Fire Emblem: 109 1/2 (2)
third-party characters: 87 1/2 (2)
Mother: 72 1/2 (2)
Legend of Zelda: 71 (4)
Pokemon: 66 (4)
Star Fox: 63 (3)
Kirby: 61 (3)
newer one-rep series: 60 2/3 (3)
retro one-rep series: 54 (4)
Mario spin-offs: 44 1/2 (2)
Super Mario Bros.: 31 (4)
Donkey Kong: 30 (2)



My quick thoughts:
--> I would call the Kirby/FE/third-party characters the big winners for good exposure. The Kirby series decimated in the match-ups list and had two new characters for Brawl, the FE series looked to be the overall-winner with both lists considered, and Solid/Sonic weren't far behind FE while being new to Brawl on to of not being Nintendo-based...
--> ...Kirby dominating like so isn't too surprising since Sakurai helped create both the Kirby and SSB series, and with an upcoming Nintendo drought (as far as huge titles go, at least), Kirby's next game whenever it comes out should get good attention. The FE series has recently picked up steam with some console releases and Ike is casual-bait, so perhaps we'll see more from upcoming FE games (when is the next game in its series, anyway?). I suspect Sonic's games won't boost much from this, but MGS4 can only benefit from this. How much, who knows.....
--> It looks like the newer one-rep series are better received than the older one-rep series as a whole, but those should be considered more as a case-by-case study than simply saying newer > older.
--> People here do not play SSBB for Mario characters -- SMB, its spin-offs, and DK end up placing at the bottom for both lists. Ouch.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/11/2008 1:14:58 PM | message detail
The next Fire Emblem is a remake of the first game, Dark Dragon and the Sword of Light (NES), starring Marth, on the DS. It's supposed to come out in Japan this year but there hasn't been a whole lot of news on it. We still don't know if it includes the third game, Mystery of the Emblem (SNES), which also featured a remake of the first game.
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Mustache...and green...
people.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/11/2008 10:27:20 PM | message detail
Great work, HaR! I've been doing a little work on my end as well... as a result we've got two new voting sites up!

Melee: http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/melee/

SSB: http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/original/

Do you think you could show these to the folks on the Melee and Smash 64 boards? They're going to see some trickle-down action regardless, as I've now got links between the three games sitting on the bottom of all the pages, but it would be nice to start them out with something of a bang.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/13/2008 12:25:47 AM | message detail
Bump.
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That's Dai Dango Daikazoku!
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H__RR____H | Posted 5/13/2008 1:44:34 PM | message detail
I want to, but I just got busted for spamming by making a topic about it to for the SSBB board. Not that the loss of karma's particularly meaningful to me, but repeat offenses so close together...not really wanting to do that right now.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
Xuxon | Posted 5/14/2008 12:54:44 AM | message detail
Heh I just noticed, Adventure got quadrupled by the lack of a poll option, yet still quadrupled two other games. Screw Jay Solano, we need to get Atlantis into this game contest.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/18, Dhoulmagus defeated (35 attempts)
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Ngamer64 | Posted 5/14/2008 8:56:25 AM | message detail
I hear ya HaR!

In other news, ouch, MGS4 not looking so hot today! It currently sits at

26.84 ready to buy it straight off, 33.76% either buying or considering the purchase.

For comparision, when this same one-month-in-advance prepoll was run for Brawl, it had 60.27% wanting to buy, and 66.43% either buying or considering doing so.

The better comparision would be MGS4 to GTA4, but unfortunately SB didn't run that for us.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
voltch | Posted 5/14/2008 12:55:32 PM | message detail
I wonder how many nails will go flying once MGS4 comes out.
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For some reason I never know what to put here.
Yesmar | Posted 5/14/2008 1:03:11 PM | message detail
I don't know. I think MGS4's doing great, considering. Over 100% of people on GameFAQS who own a PS3 are planning on buying it straight off. Brawl had numbers like that as well, but still, I think this is a really good performance based on how low the PS3 ownership rate is.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
H__RR____H | Posted 5/14/2008 1:09:15 PM | message detail
What is the last number we have on PS3-ownership now, anyway?
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/14/2008 1:11:22 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2839

Given that Halo 3 did that much better than MGS4, I'm kinda thinking it won't do as much for Snake in the Summer as some are expecting...
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All you love is a lie.
Brawl FC: 4253-3155-6697
ZFS | Posted 5/14/2008 1:13:46 PM | message detail
Yeah. I was about to say that the people buying MGS4 are right around the number of people who own a PS3 here, more if you take into consideration the 'maybe' people.

After hearing that MGS4 is going to get a Halo-esque marketing push from Sony I'd imagine these numbers will end up changing over the course of the month leading up to the release, too, primarily due to increased awareness of the PS3 bundle coming out on June 12th.

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6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out
ZFS | Posted 5/14/2008 1:15:39 PM | message detail
What is the last number we have on PS3-ownership now, anyway?

Around 21%, I think.

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6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out
H__RR____H | Posted 5/14/2008 1:17:20 PM | message detail
It'll be interesting given that this will be Solid's first starring role in a new game in the past ten years or whatever, plus MGS4's still getting more attention/hype than MGS3 did. Halo's fanbase is quite a bit different than MGS's, too, so I'm not sure how fair of a comparison that is.

That said...unless the PS3-ownership numbers change a lot after its release, I'm questioning how much it does for the legend too. At least he's got SSBB backing him too.....
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Lobby Hero
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/14/2008 2:25:44 PM | message detail
Riku vs Ryu Hayabusa.

this match has been driving me crazy ever since i reminded myself that ryu beat both riku and roxas combined. what are your opinions?
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--GENO ALLIANCE--
Supporters of Geno in Super Smash Bros. Brawl - http://thegenoalliance.ytmnd.com/
H__RR____H | Posted 5/14/2008 2:36:21 PM | message detail
I'll take Riku. I know Hayabusa beat Riku+Roxas in the four-way and that Riku barely beat Hayabusa the next round...that said, one-on-one matches have typically shown Riku has the advantage. Also, if you believe in the MGS/KH-anomalies, Riku beat Hayabusa with Solid Snake in the same poll. There's a solid case for either one, but I'd not turning my back on Square for this one.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
H__RR____H | Posted 5/14/2008 10:18:02 PM | message detail
Whew, finally we can compare MGS4 to Wii Fit!
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Lobby Hero
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/14/2008 10:25:14 PM | message detail
Ninja Gaiden 2 totally decides the match in Ryu's favor by the time the next contest turns around. Last year's results aren't really that important.
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All you love is a lie.
Brawl FC: 4253-3155-6697
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/15/2008 9:35:34 PM | message detail
Final numbers from the last two days.

Firm Plans to Purchase
MGS4 - 25.78%
Wii Fit - 11.66%

A dominating victory! But, what's this?

Planning to Buy, or at least considering it
MGS4 - 32.76%
Wii Fit - 38.60%

I can't believe so much of the site is willing to at least give Wii Fit the time of day; you'd think it would be exactly the kind of casually popular title that would be hated on by a site like this.

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
__Mega64__ | Posted 5/16/2008 6:56:53 AM | message detail
Only people who hate Wii Fit are those who feel insecure about sharing the world of video games with their grandparents. I'm hoping Wii Fit dominates because I love laughing at these wastes cry about the end of gaming when it doesn't interfere with Nintendo's other games and especially with the 360/PS3 lineup.

But yeah, Golden Sun's doing pretty damn good. Perhaps Felix would beat Master Chief in a rematch, say, 75-25?
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transience | Posted 5/17/2008 11:04:04 AM | message detail
IGN's been counting down their top 25 Final Fantasy characters this week, and letting people vote on each set. want to see FF7 domination?

http://stars.ign.com//polls/11832.html
http://stars.ign.com//polls/11839.html
http://stars.ign.com//polls/11843.html
http://stars.ign.com//polls/11848.html
http://stars.ign.com//polls/11850.html

christ. I think the last poll is complete BS - Sephiroth was losing to Vivi, and when I checked a couple hours later, he was crushing Cloud. damn IGN and their Sephiroth obsession.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/17/2008 12:20:38 PM | message detail
RENO doubled Laguna? Well...guess that means I'm never nominating that turd again!
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SSBB fans, please spend five minutes here:
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transience | Posted 5/17/2008 12:39:46 PM | message detail
I kinda wish we coulda seen Auron and Squall to see how far that FF7 bias goes.
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xyzzy yzzyx xyzzy yzzyx xyzzy yzzyx xyzzy yzzyx
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/17/2008 1:28:20 PM | message detail
Or even Tidus -- I'm surprised that Wakka/Jecht/Yuna/Lulu made it in over Tidus or especially Auron as far as FFX goes.

It's also weird for me to see Kefka and Balthier beat Yuna. Aeris, I'm not surprised about obviously...I dunno, maybe because Lulu was in that poll too? Hard to say, but whatever.
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SSBB fans, please spend five minutes here:
http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/
Yesmar | Posted 5/17/2008 3:13:57 PM | message detail
Hopefully we'll have nominations up for the next Summer Contest within the week. Maybe we'll actually have a full Summer Contest with a bracket released on May 31st, for the first time in FIVE YEARS.

Come on Bacon. There's no reason for a delay this time.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/17/2008 4:15:15 PM | message detail
hoping for nominations this week sounds kinda wishful.
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--GENO ALLIANCE--
Supporters of Geno in Super Smash Bros. Brawl - http://thegenoalliance.ytmnd.com/
Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/18/2008 3:37:27 AM | message detail
I think we have to wait at least 2 months until nominatinos starts.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/20/2008 12:06:06 AM | message detail
Bump
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That's Dai Dango Daikazoku!
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Ngamer64 | Posted 5/20/2008 10:47:29 PM | message detail
HaR, don't forget to re-create that NRT signup topic!

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
HaRRicH | Posted 5/21/2008 2:15:16 PM | message detail
I haven't, but I've got a new computer and am trying to transfer a lot of files through my old computer's lame practically-broken CD-drive...plus there's a chance I'll lose internet access next week. I've got the old list Xcarv re-posted though, so when I get the list transfered then I'll make another topic.
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SSBB fans, please spend five minutes here:
http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/
__Mega64__ | Posted 5/22/2008 2:35:23 PM | message detail
If we have a Game Contest, we must get Wii Fit in because if it goes up against a dearly-beloved Nintendo game like SMB3 or OoT or Brawl, it could very well be a bigger blow-out than LoZ VS Adventure. Your average GameFAQs user probably hates Wii Fit, and they'd likely anti-vote it over anything else. Add another Nintendo title to stem even Wii Fit fans away from voting for it, and you've got one hell of a massacre.

I'd like to see Wii Sports make it in for more legit reasons. It seems one of those titles that do well against a game nobody knows about but would bomb utterly against a game with an actual name for itself.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/22/2008 2:48:18 PM | message detail
how do you think SB will setup game nominations, if there is a game contest?
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--GENO ALLIANCE--
Supporters of Geno in Super Smash Bros. Brawl - http://thegenoalliance.ytmnd.com/
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/22/2008 2:51:54 PM | message detail
Nominations by May 31st? That would definitely be nice, but I don't see it happening.

I wish we would have had a spring contest this year

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Only fools are enslaved by time and space
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2008 3:38:52 PM | message detail
Man, IGN's list is terrible. No Squall or Tidus? Even more egregious is the fact that SELPHIE is on that list over Squall! I must not be reading that right.

...Nothing to see here.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
HaRRicH | Posted 5/23/2008 12:21:45 AM | message detail
I knew you were still around.
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SSBB fans, please spend five minutes here:
http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/23/2008 11:28:48 AM | message detail
Yeah, I took a look at what IGN has going on. It's a bit funky.
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Only fools are enslaved by time and space
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 5/23/2008 11:56:35 AM | message detail
I know I'm not supposed to post here until the next contest, but I feel this little tidbit is very cool, especially with a game contest looming

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10630&Itemid=2

Series Unit Sales

01. Resident Evil Series (50 titles, 34,500,000)
02. Mega Man Series (120 titles, 28,000,000)
03. Street Fighter Series (59 titles, 25,000,000)
04. Disney Series (33 titles, 13,200,000)
05. Devil May Cry Series (10 titles, 9,500,000)
06. Onimusha Series (12 titles, 7,800,000)
07. Monster Hunter Series (10 titles, 6,300,000)
08. Dino Crisis Series (13 titles, 4,400,000)
09. Ghosts 'n Goblins Series (15 titles, 4,300,000)
10. Final Fight Series (10 titles, 3,200,000)
11. Breath of Fire Series (15 titles, 3,000,000)
12. Ace Attorney Series (11 titles, 2,800,000)
13. Commando Series (2 titles, 1,200,000)
14. 1942 Series (3 titles, 1,200,000)


01. Street Fighter II (released June 1992, SFC, 6,300,000 units sold)
02. Resident Evil 2 (January 1998, PS, 4,960,000)
03. Street Fighter II Turbo (July 1993, SFC, 4,100,000)
04. Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (September 1999, PS, 3,500,000)
05. Resident Evil (March 1996, PS, 2,750,000)
06. Dino Crisis (July 1999, PS, 2,400,000)
07. Devil May Cry 4 (January 2008, PS3, Xbox 360, 2,300,000)
08. Devil May Cry (August 2001, PS2, 2,160,000)
09. Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (February 2007, PSP, 2,150,000)
10. Onimusha: Warlords, (January 2001, PS2, 2,020,000)
11. Resident Evil 4, (December 2005, PS2, 2,000,000)
12. Super Street Fighter II (June 2006, 1994, SFC, 2,000,000)
13. Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny, (March 2003, PS2, 1,990,000)
14. Aladdin (November 1993, SFC, 1,750,000)
15. Devil May Cry 2 (January 2003, PS2, 1,700,000)
16. Duck Tales, (January 1990, FC, 1,670,000)
17. Street Fighter II' Plus (September 1993, MD, 1,650,000)
18. Ghosts'n Goblins (June 1986, FC, 1,640,000)
19. Resident Evil 4 (January 2005, GC, 1,600,000)
20. Onimusha 3: Demon siege (February 2004, PS2, 1,520,000)
21. Mega Man 2 (December 1998, FC, 1,510,000)
22. Lost Planet Extreme Condition (December 2006, Xbox 360, 1,500,000)
23. Final Fight (December 1990, SFC, 1,480,000)
24. Resident Evil Outbreak (December 2003, PS2, 1,450,000)
25. Duck Tales (September 1990, GB, 1,430,000)
26. Resident Evil Code Veronica X (March 2001, PS2, 1,400,000)
27. Dead Rising (August 2006, Xbox 360, 1,400,000)
28. Resident Evil (March 2002, GC, 1,350,000)
29. Mega man Battle Network 4 (December 2003, GBA, 1,350,000)
30. Devil May Cry 3 (February 2005, PS2, 1,300,000)
31. Resident Evil 0 (November 2002, GC, 1,250,000)
32. Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition (May 2007, Wii, 1,250,000)
33. Magical Quest Starring Mickey (November 1992, SFC, 1,210,000)
34. Resident Evil DC Dual Shock (August 1998, PS, 1,200,000)
35. Chip'n Dale Rescue Rangers (June 1990, FC, 1,200,000)
36. Dino Crisis 2 (September 2000, PS, 1,190,000)
37. Mega Man X (December 1993, SFC, 1,160,000)
38. Monster Hunter Freedom (December 2005, PSP, 1,150,000)
39. Resident Evil Code Veronica (February 2000, DC, 1,140,000)
40. Commando (September 1986, FC, 1,140,000)
41. Resident Evil Director's Cut (September 1997, PS, 1,130,000)
42. Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts (October 1991, SFC, 1,090,000)
43. Mega Man 3 (September 1990, FC, 1,080,000)
44. Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles (November 2007, Wii, 1,050,000)
45. Final Fight 2 (May 1993, SFC, 1,030,000)
46. Street Fighter Alpha 3 (December 1998, PS, 1,000,000)


Interesting to note are:

DMC4 outselling DMC1
RE4 having massive numbers
SF2 also having massive numbers
Mega Man 2 being the bestselling in the Mega Man series, followed by.... Battle Network 4?
HaRRicH | Posted 5/23/2008 1:58:36 PM | message detail
I'm glad to see MM2 sold the best, plus it was arguably the best-received MM-game. It makes me feel a little better saying it would be the strongest MM-game...though at this point, emulation downloads probably mean a lot more to it than sales.
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SSBB fans, please spend five minutes here:
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redrocket | Posted 5/23/2008 2:11:51 PM | message detail
So none of the Breath of Fire games broke 1,000,000? I thought for sure 3 would at least <_<

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Ngamer64 | Posted 5/23/2008 2:50:28 PM | message detail
DMC4 is the best-selling of the series, wha? Then how come everyone stopped talking about it after a week?

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
trannyscience | Posted 5/23/2008 2:51:14 PM | message detail
multiplatform does wonders, yo.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/23/2008 2:52:26 PM | message detail
DMC4 is also the first to be on more than one platform, although the 360 and PS3 combined don't even come close to the PS2's numbers, even when 1 came out

TuRtLe
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Brawl FC: 3480-2274-2075
HaRRicH | Posted 5/23/2008 6:28:34 PM | message detail
Speaking of DMC4, how will Dante fare this year? Does anybody think he could beat Yoshi now, for example?
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SSBB fans, please spend five minutes here:
http://www.thengamer.com/ssb/
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/24/2008 12:37:54 AM | message detail
not sure with brawl out.
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--GENO ALLIANCE--
Supporters of Geno in Super Smash Bros. Brawl - http://thegenoalliance.ytmnd.com/
voltch | Posted 5/24/2008 10:18:40 AM | message detail
People are bound to overestimate the brawl factor,but Dante seems to be locked in at that midcarder position for life.
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For some reason I never know what to put here.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/24/2008 10:25:39 AM | message detail
Speaking of DMC4, how will Dante fare this year? Does anybody think he could beat Yoshi now, for example?

It'll have been 2 years since Dante/Yoshi, and with us likely looking at a significant influx of young voters we haven't seen in 1v1 matches (I mean, look at how Yoshi did last contest, he slaughtered Knuckles despite most Nintendo looking no better than we expected), I think we may see another general Nintendo boost across the board.

Which of course means we go into ULTRA-BRAWLFEAR mode.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/24/2008 12:17:34 PM | message detail
well its not like dante was the protagonist of DMC4 anyway.
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--GENO ALLIANCE--
Supporters of Geno in Super Smash Bros. Brawl - http://thegenoalliance.ytmnd.com/
HaRRicH | Posted 5/25/2008 1:30:32 AM | message detail
True, though Yoshi remains as one of the least appreciated in the SSB-series..and Dante sounds like he's the Solid Snake of the DMC series; if Solid can boost after MGS2:Substance on the Xbox, I figure Dante can off of DMC4 while going multi-platform. That said...through no other stats except their head-to-head match in 2k5, it's hard for me to pick against Yoshi. Brawl-fear, he's always loved in the Mario Kart series, and ultimately he's still more well-known than Dante. No other stats really explain it, but what's happened since their 2k5-match is to Yoshi's advantage..


Also...for what it's worth about Knuckles, none of the Sonic characters looked fantastic last year. Knuckles dropped the ball big-time against Yoshi, Shadow hardly carried his weight, Tails lost to a boss from MGS3 (however bad-ass she may be), and Sonic barely beat Squall (despite Sora or Solid Snake being in each match)...one could say either the series is quickly dropping or that the format is not meant to favor Sonic characters. I think the latter is true. However, neither should really decide how impressive Yoshi dismantling Knuckles was. It's arguably his biggest victory (that or Dante!) and it was nice to see Yoshi could do that to respectable competition, the format was very different. I'm not gonna hold it against Knuckles.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/25/2008 3:42:22 AM | message detail
If it's a 1VS1 this year I'm taking Sonic to win it all. Brawl + a Bioware RPG + a game that so far looks fantastic = WIN.

Even if he faces L-Block or Link in the first round ^_^
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
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