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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 549 (#2)

H__RR____H | Posted 4/9/2008 10:06:05 AM | message detail
I find it weird that Yoshi and DK are both low on votes, considering they were in the SSB series from the beginning. Not that either's great...but to be losing to Bowser there when he was snubbed in SSB, terrible in SSBM, and bearable in SSBB (though I've not seen the tier-lists yet)? Just...urgh.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/9/2008 10:42:00 AM | message detail
Let's hold Link constant to his 2006 value and determine x-stats based on the rest of that list.

47.83 Samus - 17,984
47.62 Fox - 17,906
44.13 Mario - 16,593
42.22 Pit - 15,874
39.90 ZSS - 15,000
39.86 Sheik - 14,986
34.08 Zelda - 12,813
33.84 Bowser - 12,725
29.32 DK - 11,022
23.24 Yoshi - 8,739
20.60 Olimar - 7,745
16.93 Peach - 6,364
16.73 Ice Climbers - 6,289

Conclusions:

- we badly need to see Fox return, though we all knew this
- ZSS will still make Samus weaker, but we're never going to see a collapse on par with that Tifa match again
- Pit's looking to be a huge casual favorite, and would probably be the best newcomer to get behind
- DK and Yoshi have been bottom tier with casuals three generations in a row now, and Bowser isn't much ahead of them
- Peach and Zelda do a good job of rallying Nintendo support in 1v1 matches, but put them in polls with other options and everyone will jump ship very quickly
+ eh, maybe that's not fair to say, since Zelda had to split votes with Sheik here. but Peach has no excuse.

Nothing too mindblowing there, but it was fun to consider.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/9/2008 10:50:53 AM | message detail
- ZSS will still make Samus weaker, but we're never going to see a collapse on par with that Tifa match again

Wouldn't it make more sense to add Samus and ZSS together to see her true strength?

- Pit's looking to be a huge casual favorite, and would probably be the best newcomer to get behind

He's one of two newcomers in the poll. -_-
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TRE Public Account | Posted 4/9/2008 11:06:40 AM | message detail
Wouldn't it make more sense to add Samus and ZSS together to see her true strength?

No it wouldn't. Assuming the matches are generated reasonable close to randomly, this would double the number of matches Samus appears in. This was greatly increase the number of wins she gets. If you added them up you would get 32,984 which is significantly higher than Link which wouldn't make too much sense.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/9/2008 11:18:37 AM | message detail
Yeah, just like it wouldn't be fair to add Zelda and Sheik together, since again they'd come out way ahead of Link.

Eh, Pit only beat one other newcomer head to head, yes, but look at his placement. Would you really take another newcomer to be able to hang in that Samus/Mario range? I'd probably take the rest of them to end up closer to Olimar than Mario.

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Warsola | Posted 4/9/2008 11:20:21 AM | message detail
Toon Link >_>
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/9/2008 11:30:03 AM | message detail
I dunno. I see Meta Knight and Ike doing very well.

Not to mention Snake/Sonic. >_________________________>
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/9/2008 11:53:37 AM | message detail
No way Pit is more popular than Ike here. Aside from Ike having games that are actually worth a damn on GameFAQs, Ike is a casual MONSTER in SSBB. You can't have a Play Anyone match without falling over two or three Aether-spammers every other match.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:17:52 PM | message detail
Well, this makes me ask a question for Ngamer. I hate to put ya on the spot like this; it's unintentional...but are you able to host your own version of this kind of poll-system?


I ask this because I know you've done a lot with HTML on your site and know how to do some stuff randomly on your site (random pictures at the x-stat calculator, for example)...it just seems to me that, if you had the time, you've got the tools and knowledge to make a better version of that ad-site. You could easily have all the pictures you'd need from the Dojo...and you could even have questions on the side like "Zelda or Sheik?", "Samus or Zero Suit Samus?", or "Squirtle, Ivysaur, or Charizard?". Throw in that you could toss it around on GameFAQs (or even other sites), and we could get some great samples through that!

Again, hate to put ya on the spot about it, but that would be kick-ass.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 4/9/2008 12:25:57 PM | message detail
Setting up the poll probably isn't too difficult. However, getting a large unbiased sample of people to vote in it might be.

On another note, a person is running a character popularity contest on the SSBB board. It might give a reasonable idea of how popular the SSBB characters are with SSBB fans:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/search.php?board=928518&search=Brawl+Pop
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:26:20 PM | message detail
I'm not quite sure how "worth a damn" Ike's games are strength-wise here, though I trust they're worth more than Kid Icarus. Still...yeah, I'd take Ike > Pit pretty naturally.
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Big Bob | Posted 4/9/2008 12:29:11 PM | message detail
I'm a bit late to that discussion, but...

**** Charizard, I'm nominating the Pokemon Trainer.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:32:46 PM | message detail
TRE, if you're talking about GameFAQs's bias, I think that would only benefit us for contests. If you're talking about the bias from other sites, that would give us a more well-rounded perspective of how SSBB-characters are being received. If you're talking about the online gamer's bias and how it would probably be more hardcore than casual...you're probably right in that regard!

I just don't know how ya meant it exactly.....
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:34:31 PM | message detail
Ha...here's a fun question that Big Bob makes me wanna ask:

Pokemon Trainer VS Ash...does PT win it?
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Warsola | Posted 4/9/2008 12:36:27 PM | message detail
....Yes. Easily, I think >_>
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/9/2008 12:36:39 PM | message detail
Sure HaR, I could do that easy as pie. Would you like the page to just ask "Who is your favorite?," or should it be more Brawl-themed, with something asking who you prefer to play as?

And TRE is right, the bigger issue would be getting it out to a large and varied enough voter pool so that the results would count for something. But I'm sure we could manage.

In the meantime, wow, that series of polls on the Brawl board is pulling down huge votals. I'll have to keep an eye on it.

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TRE Public Account | Posted 4/9/2008 12:37:58 PM | message detail
I meant as if you did a lot of the advertising on GameFAQs, it would be more biased towards what GameFAQs users think. But I suppose if you did hit enough sites, you would get a more well-rounded perspective. At the very least the bias would be limited to "people who like voting in internet polls".
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:41:16 PM | message detail
I've never REALLY played Pokemon much, but I didn't realize PT was so well-received in SSBB (I knew he was hyped though) and I guess I try to give Ash more credit for his games than he deserves. It's just weird for this outsider to wrap my head around.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:46:59 PM | message detail
Well, with little more than the box-art and "Who do you want to side with?", we're seeing how the ad's doing. I think it would probably be appropriate to have the box-art up with it and ask "Who is your favorite fighter?" Getting more specific would be fine, but I think if you did that then it should only specify that you mean their favorite to play as in the SSB series...as opposed to their favorite fighter to play with in SSBB, you know?
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2008 12:55:13 PM | message detail
Though, then again, if we're just aiming to gauge what SSBB is doing, then scratch what I just said...your call.

I do think it'd be wise to group Zelda/Sheik, Samus/ZSS, and Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon together so we see how people like them as a package...then perhaps have questions on the side asking about which people prefer between each of them so we know which side(s) of them made said choice the most popular.
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Xcarvenger | Posted 4/11/2008 3:41:24 AM | message detail
buuump
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/11/2008 12:49:17 PM | message detail
So, now that I'm done running the NRT in case there's a game contest this year, here's the three that won:

1) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
2) Star Fox 64
3) Donkey Kong Country 2

Assuming we have a game contest this year and we see those three make it, what should we expect to see from them?
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__Mega64__ | Posted 4/11/2008 1:00:18 PM | message detail
Only one I see impressing is Pokemon, and even then it wouldn't do too spectacular, though if the bracket's set up right I could see it pulling an impressive upset.

Anyway, if there were any kind of caps that allowed more older games, they'd easily be blown away. Other than the well-established classics we all know and love, any other game not from the last two generations would be fodderific. I see Star Fox 64 barely above the fodder line, but I don't see DKC2 doing well at all. I really think it'd be more interesting to nominate recent games that could do potentially interesting stuff, like Wii Sports, Guitar Hero 3, and Call of Duty 4. Pokemon RBY I can see doing that. Star Fox 64 and DKC2, not so much.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/11/2008 1:29:50 PM | message detail
I really think it'd be more interesting to nominate recent games that could do potentially interesting stuff, like Wii Sports, Guitar Hero 3, and Call of Duty 4.

...SF64 would crush all 3 of those, especially after its VC release.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/11/2008 1:34:09 PM | message detail
SF64 would crush Wii Sports because it's Nintendo, but I don't see a clear winner between SF64/GH3 and I'll take CoD4 > SF64.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/12/2008 7:22:09 PM | message detail
...I agree!
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/14/2008 12:47:52 AM | message detail
Stay alive little topic, I've got big news to post in you soon.

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2008 11:23:03 AM | message detail
Hush little topic, don't say a word.....



Haha, so, new filler-topic until we find something we can all argue over: how do people feel about Bowser/Zelda? I remember Bowser being a big favorite afew years ago, then I think Zelda became the assumed favorite...and last year wasn't really terrific for either of them. Who ya got?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/14/2008 11:28:31 AM | message detail
Bowser over Zelda. Zelda didn't look too hot despite being post-TP, and I know I'm going to be gambling my bracket on Galaxy doing something.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/14/2008 3:13:20 PM | message detail
thats very, very hard to decide. im split.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/14/2008 10:19:24 PM | message detail
I think most have already seen it, but if not, I have a new topic going in the hopes of rallying support for a Game Contest to be created soon.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=42577918

Would 250 signs be enough to get SB's attention? Probably not, but eh, they couldn't hurt!

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H__RR____H | Posted 4/16/2008 9:49:09 AM | message detail
I signed it like it's hot!
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voltch | Posted 4/17/2008 8:40:32 AM | message detail
i wonder how many signs it would really have to take for SB to notice,well let's hope for the best.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 4/17/2008 4:21:23 PM | message detail
Brawl sold over 2.7mil in March.

Next contest should be insane.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/18/2008 12:49:39 PM | message detail
For the record, how well did SSBM sell in its first month and since its release?
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/18/2008 1:20:13 PM | message detail
As of early '06, the previous games stood at

Super Smash Bros. Melee (GC)
Japan: 1.39 million
America: 3.60 million
Europe: 1.06 million
Total: 6.05 million

Super Smash Bros. (N64)
Japan: 1.97 million
America: 2.93 million
Europe: 0.65 million
Total: 5.55 million

Melee no doubt continued to sell some after that, but still, 2.7 is really remarkable no matter how you look at it.

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ZFS | Posted 4/18/2008 1:37:50 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how much Melee sold in its first month, but I don't think you'll get a good comparison there. The GCN's userbase was a lot lower than the Wii's right now -- Melee came out only a couple of weeks after the Cube.

Still pretty impressive, though. Brawl had a few extra weeks to sell, but the only game in recent memory to put up those kind of numbers was Halo 3. Not a bad game to be hanging around.

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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/18/2008 11:37:37 PM | message detail
KH was asking me about this in another topic, thought I'd port it over here.

We started talking about how Ness upsetting CJ in Round One was probably the most embarrassing result ever for B8, in terms of us getting owned by the casual brackets, so I looked up results on that. And what I found was...

The Top Ten Most Embarrassing Matches In B8 History


10. We were embarrassed by 24.15% when Mario beat Samus in R4 of '05.
(casuals - "it's freaking Mario")

9. We were embarrassed by 24.64% when Luigi beat Kirby in '06.
(because we all had Zero here instead)

8. We were embarrassed by 26.94% when Sora beat Ryu H. in R2 of '04.
(huh?)

7. We were embarrassed by 31.84% when Master Hand beat Kuja in '05.
(ouch!)

6. We were embarrassed by 34.91% when Snake beat Mega Man in R4 of '06.
(ice burn!)

5. We were embarrassed by 35.08% when Knuckles beat Magus in '05.
(laugh out loud)

4. We were embarrassed by 35.99% when Luigi beat Zero in '06.
(buuuurn)

3. We were embarrassed by 36.66% when Squall beat Knuckles in R2 of '05.
(because we all had Magus here instead)

2. We were embarrassed by 43.96% when Kirby beat Tidus in R2 of '05.
(zing)

1. We were embarrassed by 45.40% when Ness beat CJ in '05.
(the topper!)

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Xuxon | Posted 4/20/2008 11:33:01 AM | message detail
Where is the "Game of the Decade" poll people have been talking about occasionally?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/20/2008 11:36:49 AM | message detail
I got 3 of the top 4 right, woo.

Of course, the one that I didn't get right reminds me that I received a grand total of 1 point in the entire Devil Division.
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voltch | Posted 4/21/2008 9:51:11 AM | message detail
I think i got three or four of those 10 matches correct,that's not a good indication for the next contest.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/21/2008 1:22:20 PM | message detail
SB ran a bonus Game of the Decade poll right after we finished voting for GotY in January. The results are here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2995

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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/22/2008 7:44:52 PM | message detail
Not a major update, but to keep us from purging...

I put up a listing of the "most unpredictable Contests" a couple days back, based on the prediction percentage when you average it out over the full 63 (or however many) matches that were held in the season. The results are here:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Most_Unpredictable_Contests

Highlights: - the Gurus have a 84.43% career average, while the casual bracketmakers have only managed a 65.83% over the same period.

- last year was the hardest Contest ever for both the Gurus and the casuals, and by a long shot- and that's even without giving any kind of punishment for picking the advancing characters out of order.

- toughest normal bracket? 2006! yes, hard to believe, but '06 gave the casuals even more trouble than '02 or '03.

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Xuxon | Posted 4/22/2008 7:49:55 PM | message detail
Thanks for the link Ngamer. Although you led me down the wrong path by calling it game of the decade when it's clearly game of the century. If you just got your facts straight I would have found it with google.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/22/2008 10:48:25 PM | message detail
So, Best Game Ever and Something Completely Different are having quite the battle!
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Xuxon | Posted 4/22/2008 11:01:40 PM | message detail
They were 3 votes apart at one point.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 4/23/2008 5:07:41 AM | message detail
Very interesting results. Too bad everything's so close besides the "Sure, whatever" option.

Still, another contest this summer, woo. Can't really do too much with characters this year, really, so I wouldn't mind skipping them in favor of another games contest or something else. Give characters an extra year to really surprise us.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2008 7:29:33 AM | message detail
Let's go Best Game Ever
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Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2008 8:02:08 AM | message detail
I think this is enough support to get another BGE going!
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H__RR____H | Posted 4/23/2008 8:05:59 AM | message detail
Let's go BGE!!!
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