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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 549 (#2)

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/25/2008 1:35:24 PM | message detail
Didn't casuals take Snake overwhelmingly to win the male division, though?
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/25/2008 1:36:18 PM | message detail
Well, GTA hasn't turned out a very powerful character to date yet. Vercetti is the best case example from the series, and, well...he barely beat Donkey Kong back when he was new. We also saw the lead from GTA:SA be beaten by Ness worse than he beat Jak the year before, and Officer Tenpenny I believe ended up being dead-last in the Villain Contest stats...though I think that's because Seph/Liquid was fishy. Regardless, that was GTA's biggest game...

...then, on top of all that, we also saw Vercetti get thrashed last year by MC and Yuna, though at least he still beat PaRappa the Rapper. That's showing me that the characters probably don't hold up so well in the test of time. Let's not forget the GTA series was embarrassed in an upset by Warcraft about two years ago, too.


Its games have a very nice track record; they typically do well in GotY-polls, the three big GTA games all did well in the Top 100 List, and GTA:VC held its own very well against SSBM in the game contest. It's just that it doesn't have any characters that are particularly well-respected, and -- for whatever reason -- the series isn't terribly supported either. It's hard to imagine a GTA character coming and wrecking brackets now by winning matches.
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ZFS | Posted 3/25/2008 1:39:17 PM | message detail
Sorry HM- had that '06 final been a nailbiter, I'd agree that Snake has done enough to turn the result around, but instead we saw Samus post a significant win, and so it's a result I don't see changing anytime soon.

I think you're exaggerating how big of a win it was. As I recall, Samus won that 53/47 (correct me if I'm wrong). We see matches like that go the other way all the time, and I don't think you ever hear anyone saying a deficit like that won't be changing.

If there was a consensus on what made Snake lose that, I've forgotten what it was. But there's something distinctly different about then and now in regards to Nintendo support, I think. Back then, as you mentioned, Snake was riding Brawl hype. He had been announced -- but that was the extent of it. In a contest today, people have gotten a chance to actually play as Snake, actually face him in the game and whatnot, which elevates him beyond just an announcement. I don't think, if there was any "SFF" in that match, that Snake loses as much support today.

But maybe he does -- MGS4 is there to to overturn the deficit, not Brawl. The last major MGS game to come out was over 3 years ago, going on 4. The last game with Solid Snake in it was over 7 years ago, and the last game with Snake as the main playable characters was over 10 years ago. He's coming up on his biggest game this year. If that can't get him a win there, we're in trouble.

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6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out
TRE Public Account | Posted 3/25/2008 1:48:17 PM | message detail
the PS3 has outsold the 360 in the America the past two months, and has been outselling the 360 worldwide since last year. There's been a definite shift in perception in regards to the PS3, and people aren't nearly as object to buying the system as they were in the first half of 2007.

Supposedly that's due to supply problems.

http://www.joystiq.com/2008/03/13/microsoft-expects-feb-360-sales-to-trail-ps3/

I don't have the number off hand. Any idea if there was a sudden drop in 360 sales?
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/25/2008 1:57:41 PM | message detail
I'm of the belief that Samus took away most of Solid's SSBB-hype in 2006 -- not only has Samus always been big for Nintendo, but she was also hyped in the same video as Solid. Solid obviously stole the video, but I think Nintendo fans mainly stuck with Samus for the 2006-match.

Now, Solid will certainly take a bigger chunk out of that fanbase, but -- I know I'm the guy who considers the SSB-fanbase too much in matches, whatever -- that doesn't mean it'll be a big chunk. Solid's still a unique newcomer and I've heard complaints about how he plays from friends occasionally (though it's almost unanimous that it's bad-ass he's in the game, and I know lots of people do like him) whereas Samus has been in the series from the beginning and now gets ZSS in too (who I like to use more than PSS in any SSB game). Furthermore, other Nintendo characters like Yoshi, Ganondorf, or Midna haven't really broken Samus's Nintendo support before. Even Link hardly did last year or arguably 2003 -- character-wise, Samus falling apart within Nintendo has only solely been to Mario.

Again, Solid will take a bigger chunk of the SSB-fanbase in a rematch -- there's no question, that's inevitable. I just don't think you can rely a lot on it alone for this match-up. MGS4 comes into play in a big way then, which becomes my issue of being cautious about how much damage it can cause because of the PS3.


I'd practically have to take the upset, but I don't think Solid takes a lot of the Nintendo-fanbase from Samus and I'm intrigued to see how much/little MGS4 does for Solid.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/25/2008 2:00:14 PM | message detail
The 360 did...

770k in Nov
1.26 mill in Dec
230k in Jan
255k in Feb

So judging by that, I'd say it's safe to assume there's been some supply problems post-Christmas. Impossible to say how much of that is not being able to meet supply vs demand falling off, though... hopefully they can meet demand in March so we can find out.

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ZFS | Posted 3/25/2008 2:21:57 PM | message detail
I don't have the number off hand. Any idea if there was a sudden drop in 360 sales?

There's been some questions regarding how much of a shortage the 360 was really in during February -- a number of people chalked it up to Microsoft's pre-NPD damage control since many people didn't have trouble finding one during the month. But there seemed to be one during January, where the only readily available SKU was the Arcade 360. Hard to really know, though.

Going by Microsoft's comments, they're nearly willing to concede March to Sony as well, but think they'll be back on top in April -- that's supposedly when we're going to see another 360 price cut in time for GTA4. In all likelihood, we're going to see this back and forth between them all year, because Sony's putting all its effort behind MGS4 in June.

At the least, you can get a sense that the days of the 360 outselling the PS3 month after month are just about done, which I think speaks for the change in perception regarding the PS3.

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6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out
Ngamer64 | Posted 3/26/2008 8:49:27 AM | message detail
NintendoFAQs, you say? Let's see what today's poll has to say about that!

If you could only choose one current game system to play for the rest of 2008, which would it be?
DS 5.83% 3040
PC 12.21% 6364
PlayStation 3 22.66% 11808
PSP 2.79% 1455
Wii 26.49% 13799
Xbox 360 30.01% 15635
TOTAL VOTES 52101

And that's with the powerful Xbox ASV still to come.

Varied results like this make me even more excited for the Game Contest to start!

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__Smurf__ | Posted 3/26/2008 8:51:24 AM | message detail
Today is the single most stunning poll result I have ever seen.

Right after Brawl too, and the PS3 is so close. Even the DS is picking up enough for it to be a valid excuse for the Wii. wow.

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Lopen | Posted 3/26/2008 8:53:11 AM | message detail
Wow, 549 purged? Crazy. And huh, lots of discussion in here... crazy again. I'll have to catch up later today.

And hell yes, the 360 is beating the Wii. Halo 3 > Brawl for 2k8. Believe.
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transience | Posted 3/26/2008 8:56:16 AM | message detail
what a deliciously unexpected poll. the 360 isn't even the most surprising result - that's the PS3.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 3/26/2008 9:02:22 AM | message detail
Heh, GameFAQs probably still thinks FFXIII is coming out in 2008.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2008 10:41:43 AM | message detail
so... the chances of a Game Contest right now is.. ?
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Lopen | Posted 3/26/2008 10:43:43 AM | message detail
I actually almost put PS3 down just because it has backwards compatibility with the PS2. I bet a lot of its voters were considering that.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/26/2008 10:44:32 AM | message detail
100%

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voltch | Posted 3/26/2008 11:13:08 AM | message detail
If we have a games contest won't it be using the newish format of divisions containing 8 contestants?
If that were the case who are the likely top seeds?
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__Mega64__ | Posted 3/26/2008 1:17:04 PM | message detail
Assuming Clinkeroth are in, they're obvious choices, as are Mario and Snake. Sonic may look good, and Samus is possible, though they could also be in other brackets. Dunno about Mega Man or Crono. In fact, I could see Crono dip to even a 3 seed or lower.

As for non-N9 1-seeds... Vincent's possible, Master Chief's got a good shot as always, Kirby always pulls some good seeds, Ganondorf or Bowser may pull it off, Dante may have a good shot... Hard to say.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 3/26/2008 1:22:14 PM | message detail
Revisiting Samus VS Snake, Samus beat Snake while he was still riding Brawl-hype. I really don't see him getting that many votes between being revealed for the game and actually playing the game. I actually expect him getting more a boost from MGS4 than any additional Brawl hype after 2006.

Don't think MGS4 will help him too greatly, either. Definitely should help him more than MP3 helped Samus, no doubt about it, but not enough to make up that deficit. And yeah, PS3's gonna get more sales when MGS4 comes out, but people who get the MGS4 bundle probably were already voting for Snake before 2006.

He'll definitely have some boost, just not as big as everyone thinks. If MGS4 gets Halo 3 or Brawl-level hype, I could probably see him having a chance against Samus, but right now I still see Samus beating him without any worry.
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ZFS | Posted 3/26/2008 1:22:40 PM | message detail
Whoa. I would have expected to see the Wii dominate this after Brawl.

Nice to see the PS3 keeping close. Good timing after yesterday!

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6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out
Haste_2 | Posted 3/26/2008 3:30:58 PM | message detail
I would be awesome if Sonic somehow boosted up to Samus' level... and then have Sonic/Samus 2002 again! And with Sonic winning this time. It probably won't happen... ;_;

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/26/2008 3:33:12 PM | message detail
Considering post-Brawl Sonic honestly looked weaker overall than Squall, I don't think he's budging from #7 for a loooooooooong time.
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"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
Haste_2 | Posted 3/26/2008 3:34:16 PM | message detail
Samus could drop! You never know!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/26/2008 3:35:12 PM | message detail
err...post-Brawl announcement Sonic, whatever.

...maybe Zero Suit Samus/Sonic could be epic. >_>
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
Haste_2 | Posted 3/26/2008 3:36:50 PM | message detail
See? Bring back that epic 2K2 match!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/26/2008 3:39:37 PM | message detail
Considering that Sonic's Brawl announcement came DURING last contest... I wonder about him.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/26/2008 3:41:01 PM | message detail
If Sonic really needed the Brawl announcement to beat Squall with Sora in the mix, our hedgehog is in deep trouble. >_>
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
creativename | Posted 3/26/2008 5:15:07 PM | message detail
The first didn't purge, it was modded for off topic and deleted.

Seriously? The irony is off the charts! Hilarious :)

Who was the genius mod that did that?
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creativename | Posted 3/26/2008 5:24:30 PM | message detail
Today's poll surprised me too, like most I expected Wii to be winning, with how Wii-biased this site is supposed to be. You can't even blame DS LFF because them combined aren't much ahead of the 360.

Nice result to see though. IMO 360 is the best current gen system.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/27/2008 6:31:58 PM | message detail
Final results of what ended up being a very popular poll:

If you could only choose one current game system to play for the rest of 2008, which would it be?
DS 5.58% 6303
PC 11.23% 12688
PlayStation 3 22% 24855
PSP 2.64% 2982
Wii 26.93% 30430
Xbox 360 31.62% 35720
TOTAL VOTES 112978

But if you want to see something REALLY interesting, consider those results in terms of company loyalty.

Nintendo - 32.51%
Microsoft - 31.62%
Sony - 24.64%
PC - 11.23%

Hooo boy!

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HaRRicH | Posted 3/27/2008 6:51:14 PM | message detail
Microsoft - 42.85%
Nintendo - 32.51%
Sony - 24.64%


Fixed. =P



Kidding, kidding...but it is fun to compare yesterday's results to these two polls from last year:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2700
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2717

I'd like to see another loyal-to-company poll after some of the polls we've had so far this year like yesterday's and the System Of The Year poll...

...but, ultimately, Microsoft =/= the 360. It'd be fun to see what changed since then though!
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/28/2008 11:30:17 PM | message detail
PS3's currently pulling down a 24.82% share. If it stays up here (which I'm thinking it won't, since "techie" people interested in BluRay are probably the ones online checking game websites on a Friday night), that would be a 3.43% market share gain for the PS3 since Christmas.

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Xuxon | Posted 3/29/2008 2:16:26 AM | message detail
Hmm, a lot of votes today for eventually buying a PS3, too. I voted that even though I have no immediate plans for it, pretty much on the assumption that an FF7 remake will happen and there will be at least a couple other games I want by then.
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Yesmar | Posted 3/29/2008 8:34:09 AM | message detail
To add to the now old Samus Vs. Snake debate, I should point out that if I recall correctly, in 2006 the poll was acting really wonky during Snake's best time in the night.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/30/2008 4:54:04 AM | message detail
Wonky poll? I wasn't awake during the dead of the night to have seen it, but I don't remember hearing anything about that the next day. Maybe I'll look it up in the stats archive to see if it happened.

In other news, LL ran a great poll yesterday, one that took character popularity and placed it within a crucially important real-world scenario. I'd love to see more in this vein here on the FAQs!

You're in a club full of hot chicks. Which video game character do you choose as your wing-man?
Phoenix Wright (Objects their attempts to reject you) 26.58% 789
Solid Snake (Doesn't say much, but girls love the snake) 29.28% 869
Samus Aran (They say the best wing-man is a female) 24.76% 735
Master Chief (Will never let you give-up and will encourage you to "Finish the Fight" 6.87% 204
Link (Warning, he might be more popular with **** than females) 2.56% 76
Donkey Kong (Chicks always want to know why they call him "Donkey") 2.32% 69
Mario (After being *****-whipped for 20 years I don't know if he makes the best wing-man...) 1.25% 37
Cloud (Popular with weaboo goth girls with baggy pants and hanging chains) 6.37% 189
TOTAL VOTES 2968

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HaRRicH | Posted 3/30/2008 9:08:54 PM | message detail
It's just five minutes into the poll, I know, but I was kinda expecting Mario Kart Wii to be competing with GTA4 more than this during the NPH...especially since it's coming with the wheel and all that jazz.

I'm not shocked or anything and the poll can always change in the next 23+ hours...but that's my first impression!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/30/2008 9:11:22 PM | message detail
GTA always thrives like hell in these polls. Considering MK has never been overly loved here, I'd consider this more than a decent showing.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 3/30/2008 9:44:14 PM | message detail
*remembers Mario Kart vs. Mega Man with great pain*
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/30/2008 10:32:24 PM | message detail
I'm more interested to see what Okami does in relation to Persona come daytime.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 3/30/2008 10:43:16 PM | message detail
Tag
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voltch | Posted 3/30/2008 11:34:49 PM | message detail
I wonder how bacon will handle tomorrow's april fools.
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Haste_2 | Posted 3/31/2008 4:40:56 PM | message detail
The CS&S topic burst into activity because of that purged topic. Hey, maybe we should let this one purge, too!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/1/2008 10:51:14 PM | message detail
Haha...I think not!
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voltch | Posted 4/2/2008 12:43:57 PM | message detail
If this topic was to purge what would it mean for the dynasty that has been established for so long?
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2008 2:41:44 PM | message detail
...it would be kinda funny if the topic purged on that question. =P



Well, we need something else to discuss pretty badly...how do you think Kratos will compare one-on-one now as opposed to 2k6?
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swirIdude | Posted 4/4/2008 8:02:11 AM | message detail
Kratos will beat Alucard now.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/4/2008 8:08:36 AM | message detail
Not if Gamefaqs has any kind of taste :P

Actually yes Kratos would sadly beat Alucard now, and many other COOL characters. Can someone explain to me just how GoW is so popular?


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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
swirIdude | Posted 4/4/2008 8:09:27 AM | message detail
Violence and blood and threesomes are popular.
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At least you don't have death perception. Then you'd have to fight vampires and stuff. ~paperwarrior
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swirIdude | Posted 4/4/2008 8:12:24 AM | message detail
Charizard vs Alucard, who ya got?
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At least you don't have death perception. Then you'd have to fight vampires and stuff. ~paperwarrior
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/4/2008 8:14:29 AM | message detail
Gimme Alucard. For some reason I don't think any pokémon is strong in the 1VS1 format, but I could be very wrong. I wouldn't feel so confident about it.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
swirIdude | Posted 4/4/2008 8:17:32 AM | message detail
It all depends on how far Alucard is falling. Charizard's going to be at his max strength right about now with the release of Brawl, so we need to get him in this Summer. He has a shot at Alucard just on that. Remember Pikachu's revival last time around?
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