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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 549 (#2)

LeonhartFour | Posted 6/10/2008 3:27:42 PM | message detail
Argh, I actually have to wait until Thursday morning to pick up MGS4 because my GameStop didn't get enough preorders to necessitate a midnight opening. Bah!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
H__RR____H | Posted 6/11/2008 4:11:11 PM | message detail
From the game-stores I've been talking to, there seems to be a LOT of excitement for MGS4...yet not really having the pre-sales to back it up. It's like the hype-to-owning ratio is particularly lop-sided from what I'm hearing, and I figure it's because of the PS3's price still being too high for many gamers. It could be interesting to see if Solid Snake becomes increasingly stronger as the PS3 gets cheaper.....
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/11/2008 6:53:15 PM | message detail
Well, Snake's about to get the PS3 a 10% jump in ownership in a matter of hours!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/11/2008 9:37:04 PM | message detail
Should be an interesting poll today. We can compare it to those who said they planned to buy MGS4 (25.78% yes), as well as the other recent first day ownership polls:
GTAIV: 24.18% (both consoles)
MKWii: 11.94%
SSBB: 41.50%

Considering that most people picking it up at midnight are currently out buying it, I'd wager the current 17% approaches the GTAIV number of 25% by the end of the day. We shall see.

Polls:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3117
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3102
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3100
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3051
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Mustache...and green...
Xuxon | Posted 6/11/2008 9:45:41 PM | message detail
Got MGS4?

Probably not, I've never been a fan of the series


Schroedinger's snake? Some people seem to be unsure whether they've actually bought the game or not.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/12/2008 4:37:21 AM | message detail
doesn't seem to be rising.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/12/2008 4:47:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, it looks like I was wrong about MGS4 approaching GTAIV levels. I wouldn't expect anything Metal Gear related to do terribly well during the day.
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Mustache...and green...
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/12/2008 7:15:50 AM | message detail
so what explanation would there be for that missing percent that said they'd buy it?
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
redrocket | Posted 6/12/2008 8:04:50 AM | message detail
^nanomachines

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
H__RR____H | Posted 6/12/2008 11:05:15 AM | message detail
Well, these first-day polls don't make MGS4 look particularly flattering, but I don't want to judge it in the same way as the others yet. It's packaged with the PS3 (which I think took another price cut for this? Somebody inform me please), and assuming it's well-received I can see its sales not dropping off as quick as other games may in comparison.

Still, again, not particularly flattering for the here-and-now.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2008 7:52:18 PM | message detail
Hey, I saw two people buying the PS3 bundle this morning when I picked up my copy.

Snake boost confirmed.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/13/2008 3:06:32 AM | message detail
Ouch, I was beaten to the punch! But I'll go ahead anyways, now that the MGS4 number has gone final.

GameFAQs Opening Day Ownage (since SB took over)
MGS4 18.58%
GTA4 24.18%
MK Wii 11.93%
Brawl 41.50%
Madden 08 6.80%

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2008 3:51:49 PM | message detail
Nearly 20% ain't bad, considering the status of the PS3. Expecting it to outdo GTAIV, which was on two consoles, might have been too much.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
ZFS | Posted 6/14/2008 5:17:09 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4 -- 9.5 (499 users)
Metal Gear Solid -- 9.2 (172 users)
Metal Gear Solid 3 -- 9.1 (198 users)
Metal Gear Solid 2 -- 9.0 (170 users)

snake boost confirmed

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kept you waiting, huh
H__RR____H | Posted 6/14/2008 11:48:44 AM | message detail
It's also worth considering that GTA4 shattered pre-sale records too...so when considering those factors, MGS4 only being ~5.5% behind GTA4 looks a lot better. HM pointing out how MGS4's been voting on so far looks sharp, too...

...but until it gets higher ownership, you can't really expect it to do much other than help Solid to some unknown degree.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/14/2008 4:11:45 PM | message detail
you guys hear about the mega man 9 rumor yet? think this is his chance to come back now?
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/14/2008 4:22:28 PM | message detail
I'd put MGS3 above MGS1, but other than that, the ranking system is solid!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
H__RR____H | Posted 6/15/2008 11:50:46 AM | message detail
Haha, nah, they got 1 > 3 > 2 (and all very close to each other) right. I can't fairly say anything about 4 yet though!


And MM9...? It would have to sell better than any other MM game before to mean much to the Blue Bomber at this point. His new games have been often considered rehashes for years (maybe even over a decade now?), and the MM:AC and MMXC collections both sold poorly and didn't help Mega Man or Zero. Capcom would have to give us great reasoning to get EXCITED-excited over MM9 -- it'd have to be the RE4 of the MM-series and hype it up as such, pretty much.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
_Yonex_ | Posted 6/15/2008 12:18:57 PM | message detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=43678815

Be sure to let off your anger!
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Monkey Island Playthroughs: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=43570396
contest please streaky bacon
Yesmar | Posted 6/15/2008 3:18:36 PM | message detail
I don't understand why GameFAQS can't just set out a schedule ahead of time and just follow it every year.

Just say:

May 15th: Nominations start
May 31st: Bracket opens
July 1st: Contest begins

And then stick to that every year.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/15/2008 4:12:54 PM | message detail
Eh, I understand why SB doesn't set out a strict yearly schedule... it's just impossible to say what kind of workload you're going to be looking at that far in advance. Like if he'd set nominations to open June 1st, he'd have been scrambling all this while with the mountains of Brawl and GTA4 submissions that have been coming in, while trying to troubleshoot My Games and the other new feature he's rolling out, but at the same time having people at this throat all the while for the bracket.

What I DON'T understand is why he couldn't take the two minutes back in April to sticky a topic reading "Hey guys, no Spring Contest this year. But on the plus side, a full-sized Game Contest will be starting up this Summer- watch for it!" That's all it would take to get excitement and anticipation going site-wide, would give us the go ahead we need to get our discussion and rallies rolling, etc.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/15/2008 4:54:20 PM | message detail
After that one poll, I highly doubt we'll be seeing a Games Contest this year.

At least, I wouldn't ever expect a Games Contest to be the ONLY contest we have in a calendar year.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/15/2008 9:37:27 PM | message detail
heh, that's neat. smash and mgs4 are matching nearly the first day percentages.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 6/16/2008 6:59:19 AM | message detail
I guess everything's performing as expected. Though, nearly 20% haven't played any of the games? Damn, they're missing out.

This would be neat data for a gaming contest, but pretty useless in a character context.
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i got nuthin
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/16/2008 7:00:30 AM | message detail
VC did do better than MGS2 in the games contest, so GTA4 > MGS4 shouldn't be too surprising...
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All you love is a lie.
Brawl FC: 4253-3155-6697
H__RR____H | Posted 6/16/2008 10:32:20 AM | message detail
MGS4 is also only four days old, so it's doing pretty killer right now considering how much older GTA4 is than MGS4 and that GTA4's first-day sales were noticeably higher.

Also, if I'm not mistaken...aren't all of these games essentially our GotY-contenders? If so, well, here we are.....
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 6/16/2008 10:35:07 AM | message detail
Replace MKWii and Ninja Gaiden 2 with Spore and Fallout 3 and you have Gamefaqs GotY contenders.
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Go Ducks Go!
H__RR____H | Posted 6/16/2008 10:53:26 AM | message detail
I was thinkin' more of the GTA4/MGS4/SSBB-league games...if those are all that's left, well, again, here we are. SSBB's not getting toppled this year, and it will only get uglier when Mario Kart Wii isn't in the picture...

...though maybe GTA4/MGS4 are hurting each other? ...I dunno, but either way SSBB isn't being touched and it'll be difficult to see a final-GotY poll without GTA4/MGS4 anyway.



For kicks though, if SSBB wasn't in the poll, how would you guys think MKW would fare in this poll?
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/16/2008 10:54:22 AM | message detail
i doubt any better than MGS4 tbh.
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*is Dranze*
Brawl FC: 4081-5169-8762
H__RR____H | Posted 6/16/2008 11:59:50 AM | message detail
Same here, but we've seen SSBB quite literally trample everything Nintendo-related it's ever had to face at this point from during its hype to after its release (I still remember it made our GotY look worse than MP3 last year), and MKW both sold well and was well-received. I could see MKW keeping close to MGS4 at this point since MGS4 is still so new and not widely played.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
ZFS | Posted 6/16/2008 12:05:30 PM | message detail
I would really doubt Mario Kart Wii keeping it close with MGS4 if you take out Brawl. I'd like to hope Nintendo fans aren't that crazy.

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kept you waiting, huh
ZFS | Posted 6/16/2008 12:25:49 PM | message detail
I was thinkin' more of the GTA4/MGS4/SSBB-league games...if those are all that's left, well, again, here we are. SSBB's not getting toppled this year, and it will only get uglier when Mario Kart Wii isn't in the picture...

Gears of War 2 is about the only other really 'big' game, but it ain't hanging with these three. So yeah, these should be the three GotY 'contenders.'

But I wouldn't expect Brawl to do any better come January. If anything, I'd bet it does a good worse than it is now. It's got a lot of advantages here over MGS4 and GTA4 -- it's been out longer, it's got more ownership than these two combined, and it's on the Wii. Some things won't change in six months, but PS3 / 360 ownership should increase far more than the Wii over the holiday, and with that MGS4 and GTA4 should jump up as well. Not that Brawl has any chance of actually losing, but this is about as ugly as it should get, Mario Kart in the poll or not.

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kept you waiting, huh
Zylo the wolf | Posted 6/16/2008 2:05:31 PM | message detail
Hey guys, you are all forgetting Street FIghter IV.

And Sonic Dark Chronicle and Sonic Unleashed.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/16/2008 2:57:09 PM | message detail
If Street Fighter IV makes it to the final poll, I'll be shocked.

But not as shocked as I'll be if either of those Sonic games makes it. Sonic games have NEVER done well in GOTY polls.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 6/16/2008 2:58:41 PM | message detail
Eh, I could maybe see MGS4 increasing over time as more PS3s get sold over time, and even Brawl getting bigger since the Wiis still sell in crazy quantities. GTA4 I'm kinda iffy about, it seems like anyone who wanted the game already would've gotten it, especially as it's multi-console and all. After all, it didn't sell consoles like expected, so it mainly appeals to people who'd already have a 360/PS3 and thus already got it around launch.

Now I'm kinda curious to see GTA4 vs MGS4 in a similar context a few months from now. MGS4 could be closer by then.
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i got nuthin
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/16/2008 3:00:32 PM | message detail
Is this the fabled Stats Topic
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 6/16/2008 5:32:43 PM | message detail
Ha. Awesome.

Metal Gear Solid 4 -- 9.6 (1048 users)

don't mess

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kept you waiting, huh
trannyscience | Posted 6/16/2008 5:37:34 PM | message detail
MGS4 is only four days old, but that fanbase is pretty hard to the core, and it's drawing lots of people to the site right now. I'd say it's doing about what you'd expect - about 20% of the site loves it, the rest is either neutral or doesn't have a PS3. I wouldn't be amazed if it got a good amount of franchise votes from people who haven't played it yet, either. kinda like Final Fantasy always gets.

I think Mario Kart could be at about MGS4 level without Brawl in the poll. conversely, this means Brawl is actually even more popular after you account for the "LFF" from Mario Kart.

we'll see how MGS4 and GTA4 go again in six months. these are your top three games of the year though and there's no real competition. sorry, Gears.
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xyzzy
"Hope ye and the kids got me a pweasant :D" -Pikatina Nessual of Radshord
voltch | Posted 6/17/2008 11:16:15 AM | message detail
well,looks like this topic ain't purging before 500.
pity we didn't get any contest info.
Btw with SFIV will ken finally come back?and will consistent ryu increase?
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For some reason I never know what to put here.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/17/2008 11:20:02 AM | message detail
This is about their last chance to do any increasing. For some reason, a Street Fighter V seems unlikely.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
MajinZidane | Posted 6/17/2008 11:21:08 AM | message detail
From trannyscience
MGS4 is only four days old, but that fanbase is pretty hard to the core, and it's drawing lots of people to the site right now. I'd say it's doing about what you'd expect - about 20% of the site loves it, the rest is either neutral or doesn't have a PS3. I wouldn't be amazed if it got a good amount of franchise votes from people who haven't played it yet, either. kinda like Final Fantasy always gets.

I think Mario Kart could be at about MGS4 level without Brawl in the poll. conversely, this means Brawl is actually even more popular after you account for the "LFF" from Mario Kart.

we'll see how MGS4 and GTA4 go again in six months. these are your top three games of the year though and there's no real competition. sorry, Gears.



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"Pimping ain't easy.
But it's necessary."
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/17/2008 11:22:37 AM | message detail
Well duh. Street Fighter IV Ultra Turbo II Omega Edition needs to come out first.
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http://www.grimfiend.com/pics/shadowkick3.gif
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/17/2008 11:24:46 AM | message detail
Also, about yesterday's poll, people need to remember that Brawl hasn't even come out yet in Europe. That may not be significant, but you never know.
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http://www.grimfiend.com/pics/shadowkick3.gif
voltch | Posted 6/17/2008 11:29:47 AM | message detail
how many users are from europe?
just wondering what kind of percentages it's worth in a contest setting.
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For some reason I never know what to put here.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/17/2008 11:34:46 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2196

There might be a poll more recent than this, but I doubt it's changed much.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/17/2008 11:35:58 AM | message detail
As of November 2005,

What continent are you on?
Africa 0.64% 448
Asia 2.41% 1684
Australia/Oceana 2.73% 1912
Europe 12.75% 8918
North America 79.37% 55511
South America 2.1% 1467
TOTAL VOTES 69940

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
voltch | Posted 6/17/2008 2:39:25 PM | message detail
So Europe's worth a few K,I wonder if any close matches ended up with the EU As the deciding factor.
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For some reason I never know what to put here.
ToadYoshi | Posted 6/17/2008 3:33:43 PM | message detail
But how would they vote differently? I guess PAL releases could be a factor.
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That's all I have to say about that.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/17/2008 3:37:05 PM | message detail
Europe is much kinder to the PS3 than the 360, so I would assume that a generally Sony-specific character, like Snake, would be stronger with Europeans, while say, Master Chief would be weaker. >_>
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/17/2008 3:38:09 PM | message detail
Snake is the strongest.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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