GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 549 (#2)
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2008 9:55:17 AM | message detail |
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It actually purged...so close to the end, too! Can't leave a topic unfinished, I guess..... *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 10 Lists: http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates: www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10 Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| swirIdude | Posted 3/23/2008 9:56:29 AM | message detail |
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Oh man...you can't be serious... --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2008 11:14:31 AM | message detail |
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Oh, like a heart-attack. We were at 480+ posts, too..... --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/23/2008 11:15:26 AM | message detail |
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P-p-p-purged?! Good lord, we need a contest. --- RPG 9/10 Not exactly RPG, let's just say kind of like graphics. |
| voltch | Posted 3/23/2008 12:13:53 PM | message detail |
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so let's get this top what 20 posts and then we close the topic and go back to creating a new one. so no harm done. --- For some reason I never know what to put here. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 3/23/2008 12:20:28 PM | message detail |
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A stats topic purged? o_0 Did that even happen in the early years? --- Smash Code: 2234-6806-4036 11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2008 9:31:17 PM | message detail |
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I know it did for #276, and I think it may have happened early in CS&D's life too. --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| voltch | Posted 3/24/2008 12:00:45 AM | message detail |
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According to legend the first stats topic purged,but when I joined this
board i think there where already about 90-topics,(or was is 190?). --- For some reason I never know what to put here. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 3/24/2008 12:21:37 AM | message detail |
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The first didn't purge, it was modded for off topic and deleted. I can't BELIEVE 549 purged... I'd just posted my question about Brawl sales, and HM had responded to me, and that felt like it only happened yesterday or so. We were at 483 posts, too. TRE, any chance you saved that topic ahead of time? There was so much great content I'd hate to lose. --- Hot Content A'hoy: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 3/24/2008 9:26:34 AM | message detail |
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I still remember those horrible days of being off-topic on the contest board. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 3/24/2008 9:33:49 AM | message detail |
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What the hell? No! A stats topic can't purge..... It just can't.... HaRRicH is a liar... right?? --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me |
| TRE Public Account | Posted 3/24/2008 10:06:40 AM | message detail |
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TRE, any chance you saved that topic ahead of time? There was so much great content I'd hate to lose. Unfortunately not. I don't normally archive the topics until after they have closed. --- Socii sunt mihi. qui olim viri fortes rivalesque erant. Saeve certando pugnandoque sprendor crescit. |
| ff6man | Posted 3/24/2008 10:14:02 AM | message detail |
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*Gets down on knees* WWWRRRRRRRRRYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! --- http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg http://server2.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-image.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/24/2008 1:51:18 PM | message detail |
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Haha, at least the topic's talking again..... Anyway, SSBB has been out for awhile so we have gotten a feel of what it's done here. How will this affect Nintendo characters already firmly grounded both in and out of SSB (Kirby, Fox, etc.), characters mainly grounded in the SSB series (Ness, Marth, etc.), and newcomers who aren't really grounded anywhere except SSBB (Lucas, Pit, etc.)? Also, we'll look at Nintendo's big three: Link, Mario, and Samus. Who do you think will look like they've improved the most this year? Link and Toon Link are in SSBB as well as Link's Crossbow Training being released last year, Samus and ZSS are in SSBB as two original (though connected) characters, and Mario -- while only having one character in SSBB -- had SMG be GotY last year. Will any of them boost despite their iconic statuses, or does it not matter much for any of them at this point? --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/24/2008 2:33:38 PM | message detail |
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If a ZSS picture ever appears how much of an affect will it have on Samus? While it won't be a trainwreck like it was with Tifa I can still see her losing to Mega Man or Crono. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Congratulation to Explicit Content for winning the guru contest Points: 429/768 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/24/2008 2:38:56 PM | message detail |
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While Mario, Samus, Snake, and Sonic all have a lot going for them, it
doesn't appear to me to be enough to upset the status quo of 2005. Even
with Galaxy and Brawl, I'd be very surprised (though very thrilled!) if
Mario could take it to Sephiroth, and he seems like the pretty clear #4
of the group. Samus > Mario isn't happening anytime soon, for
obvious reasons, and I'd maintain Sonic staying at the bottom of this
particularly hierarchy isn't changing either. I suppose Samus/Snake
could go the other way, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. And Link
hardly needs anything to maintain his dominance. Crono and Mega Man, unfortunately, will probably continue to recede...I guess it had to happen eventually. The Nintendo midcarders will probably look pretty good this year (after not looking good at all last year, though a lot of that is because of the format), if for no other reason then the fact that Square hasn't released anything this year. One more year separates us from the release of Final Fantasy X (X literally and figuratively as a variable!) and all that. Supposing any Brawl newbie manages to make it in - and I wouldn't really bet on the likes of Pit or Lucas in a 64 character tourney - they would probably do decent against upper fodder and fold to anyone with a name. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 3/24/2008 2:49:38 PM | message detail |
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I doubt you see anything from Mario, Link and Samus. Maybe a small bit
because of the excitement of Brawl, but they're not going to be doing
things we don't expect of them. Mario would probably be the best bet of
the three thanks to Galaxy. The lower / mid tier Nintendo characters is who I'd expect to see jump. I don't think there'll be any sort of huge shakeup, but people like Pit or Meta Knight or whoever might get taken to that next level. Those few who rely entirely on Brawl would do a lot better, too. Although we don't need to see people like Lucas. And then, of course, you've got Snake -- who should be the biggest beneficiary from Brawl. To that, he's got Metal Gear Solid 4, and maybe even The Essential Collection, to help him. Out of any character next year, he's got the most potential, I think. It may still be something of a stretch, but I'm wanting to see him go against Sephiroth. He's got the best chance any character has had this upcoming year. --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| voltch | Posted 3/24/2008 2:52:05 PM | message detail |
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So Snake/Sonic/Mario are expected to jump so high that crono and megaman become so sort of high mid tier level characters? --- For some reason I never know what to put here. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/24/2008 2:58:15 PM | message detail |
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Incidentally, I meant status quo of 2006, not 2005. The year -1 in L-Block reckoning. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/24/2008 3:37:13 PM | message detail |
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Brawl could be big for Snake, but he's undoubtedly seen some of that
boost already - the E3 2006 trailer and his complete turnabout in the
Noble Nine a few months later certainly wasn't a coincidence. And Metal
Gear Solid 4's impact is going to be starkly limited by the abysmal
userbase of the PS3 here on GameFAQs (21% at last count). --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/24/2008 3:41:51 PM | message detail |
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It's not as if there isn't a significant userbase waiting for MGS4 so
they can drop money on the PS3 (like me for one!). But even if the PS3
userbase doesn't grow signifcantly and MGS4 is just "another MGS game"
for Snake, you'd have to say Snake gets practically nothing from it and the actual release of SSBB to not at least beat Samus. Doesn't seem likely. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/24/2008 3:57:13 PM | message detail |
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If Samus hadn't done anything in the last year, sure. But she's had
another starring role and happens to appear in Brawl as well. Twice,
even. And I think you need to define "significant" realistically. Between September and December (after Christmas) last year, Wii ownership on the site was up a bit shy of 7%, with Super Mario Galaxy (our Game of the Year) coming out in the interim and stellar holiday season hardware sales. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 3/24/2008 4:20:26 PM | message detail |
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I'd agree that Snake's seen a good chunk of his Brawl boost already.
But I think there's definitely more to be gained by people actually
getting their hands on the game and getting to play as him. Not likely
to such extreme levels like we saw when he was announced, but enough to
come away with another solid boost, moreso than any established
Nintendo character at least. And I wouldn't be too concerned about the PS3 ownership right now. Like KH mentioned, the PS3 userbase should explode when MGS4 is released. Sony's going out of their way to come up with a deal that's hard to turn down for those who have been waiting for MGS4 to justify a PS3 purchase. We'll probably have to wait until we have one of those polls to really get an idea, but I'd be surprised if the PS3's biggest game coming out doesn't send the ownership skyrocketing, especially with it being as low as it is now. --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/24/2008 4:32:48 PM | message detail |
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If Samus hadn't done anything in the last year, sure. But she's had
another starring role and happens to appear in Brawl as well. Twice,
even. Samus appearing *again* in SSB is comparatively nothing to Snake's debut. The only thing of note it's really liable to do is shore up some of her support should she get stuck with another ZSS picture. As for Metroid Prime 3, there's an unfortunate reality associated with that game - no one cared. And I think you need to define "significant" realistically. Between September and December (after Christmas) last year, Wii ownership on the site was up a bit shy of 7%, with Super Mario Galaxy (our Game of the Year) coming out in the interim and stellar holiday season hardware sales. I think you need to take a step back and realize the two userbases you're comparing. With the PS3 so low compared to the Wii in terms of ownership here, a "big reason" like MGS4 is going to produce a much bigger jump in ownership than if the PS3 was at the Wii's level. Besides, even if any jump in ownership is minor, this happens to be not only the most hyped MGS title ever, but the first one that Solid Snake has starred in since MGS1. There are reasons for it not doing a lot for Snake (like, for example, it flopping), but as I've stated before it seems rather unlikely. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/24/2008 4:34:29 PM | message detail |
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But didn't MGS3 boost Solid Snake? --- ...I'm still War13104! "and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/24/2008 4:36:43 PM | message detail |
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But didn't MGS3 boost Solid Snake? That's exactly my point. MGS3, a game in which Solid Snake does not appear, gave Solid Snake a significant boost. We've never actually seen what a major release starring Solid Snake could give him - but considering most of his strength comes from MGS1, I'm optimistic! --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/24/2008 4:39:27 PM | message detail |
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I think my point was that Snake is linked directly to the Metal Gear
Solid series, and whether he's actually significant to the game at all
is irrelevant. ...Unless you think, for example, Solid Snake and Wesker at the Olympic Games would give him a significant boost. >_> Don't let the fact that such a game would be badass beyond belief sway your judgment. <_< --- ...I'm still War13104! "and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07 |
| __Mega64__ | Posted 3/24/2008 4:40:11 PM | message detail |
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I'm curious to see how Sonic boosts in a 1v1 context, especially since
he spent some time with the L-Block. I mean, Sonic's edgy, and edgy
voters wanted to see something absurd, so the L-Block clearly SFFed
Sonic! Assuming Sonic's in the 7th spot right now, don't see the N9 changing besides maybe Crono croaking again. Don't Cloud and Sephy have Crisis Core anyway? Link's still gonna make people cry, Mario and Samus still won't be close to their level, Snake may be even stronger but I still don't see him beating Samus, Mega Man will be a relic who will still hold his own, and Crono will embarrass himself when Mario beats him with over 60% on their next rematch. Pit and Meta Knight are the only newcomers I see benefiting from Brawl, mainly because of their large roles in SSE and that they were the first unexpected newcomers announced (along with Zamus and Wario, but who cares about them). I'd be surprised to see anyone who hasn't been in a contest before show up in this one, besides maybe Dedede. They'll have some strength, but not that much. And as for already present Nintendo characters, I honestly don't see a huge boost for them. I do think they'll stay stable while there's a bit of a decrease for a lot of other characters. Anyway, what new characters will we see? Zack? |-Block? --- Bikini pic of my girlfriend: http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/5820/n163906098313264325679fy7.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 3/24/2008 4:42:11 PM | message detail |
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The year before MGS3 came out was Snake's worst year, as I recall, so
I'd think there'd be a bit more at play there, but it can't hurt if it
was all attributed to MGS3. You're looking at MGS4 being a bigger game
in every way, not to mention putting Snake back into the spotlight --
not Big Boss or Raiden. That's a win-win situation. --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/24/2008 4:44:05 PM | message detail |
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Well, it didn't help that Snake was behind the Mega Man/Link debacle in 2k4. Not that that stopped the "ZOMG ZELDA > SNAKE" train from chugging along. >> --- ...I'm still War13104! "and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/24/2008 4:52:05 PM | message detail |
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I think you need to take a step back and realize the two userbases
you're comparing. With the PS3 so low compared to the Wii in terms of
ownership here, a "big reason" like MGS4 is going to produce a much
bigger jump in ownership than if the PS3 was at the Wii's level. Fair enough. Example #2: 360 (Ceej hates 360 polls, apparently) December 26, 2006: 36.17% September 25, 2007: 40.84% (+4.67%) December 28, 2007: 47.76% (+6.92%) September 25th being, of course, the very day Halo 3 came out. It's unfortunate that the 360 polls are so spread out, but, even with a very highly praised entire *year* of games and Halo 3, the 360's GameFAQshare didn't increase terribly much. These are still pretty high numbers compared to the PS3, and you can contend that the 360 doesn't appeal to GameFAQs terribly much. But I think you get into tricky territory there (does the PS3?), and I still haven't seen a number for "significant," just words like "skyrocket," which I take to be unreasonably optimistic. Solid Snake actually starring in the game (probably! who knows with Kojima) seems like a much stronger argument, but I'm still wary of that because of the time playing as and aside Snake in Sons of Liberty and playing as someone who looks (and largely acts) exactly like Snake in Snake Eater. Don't misunderstand me; Snake's got a lot going for him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him beat Samus (or Mario), I just wouldn't take him. He happens to be getting a lot at the same time nearly everyone around him got a lot, too, and I don't think anyone is getting up to Sephy's level, unfortunately. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 3/24/2008 5:09:47 PM | message detail |
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It's rather hard to come up with a number -- it'll be completely
arbitrary with nothing to go on. I do think that it's almost
unquestionable that the PS3 will see a major rise after MGS4. I don't
know why it wouldn't.
People around the board are talking about getting the MGS4 bundle when
it comes out, and this place has been anything but kind to the system. Compared to Halo, Metal Gear should be much more of a system driver here, too. There's a lot more appeal and there's more incentive -- MGS4 being packaged with the PS3 instead of having a game-styled system like Halo. The ownership here probably won't approach the 360 immediately, but it should jump up to be at least within that range. That may be on the high-end, but if MGS4 doesn't do it I'm not sure what will. And compared to MGS2 and MGS3, Konami's sort of pushing how this is Snake's last game. It's become a pretty big part of their hype, talking about how this is going to his final game, and concluding his story. So there's already a lot more focus on Snake himself separate of everyone else. MGS4 is absolutely his biggest game since MGS1 -- but whether or not that means his biggest increase since then, insofar as contests are concerned, is something we'll have to see. --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/24/2008 7:55:41 PM | message detail |
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I'm gonna stay away from the Snake-boost argument awhile so I can hop onto the PS3-boost argument. If SMG and Halo 3 made the Wii and 360 boost about 7% in about three months, and the polls gauged them from pre-holiday to mid/post-holiday, then compare them to MGS4 here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2646 ...they look like there were both more anticipated last year than MGS4 (with MP3 in the poll, at that), and MGS4 will be released in the summer instead of the holidays. Yikes. Granted, I think the MGS4-train has picked up some since then (Nintendo's SMG-SSBB combo being out of the way, SSBB being great press for Solid, this new bundle-deal, Solid's likely last game, etc.), but I still don't think GameFAQs has gone wild about MGS4 like we expected. I hadn't heard about this MGS4/PS3 bundle though -- HM, could you tell me more? I also trust that MGS4's system-boost will probably nearly match Halo 3's or SMG's by ratios. Percentage though...bundle or not, I have a hard time buying 5% in three months here. I'm guessing 4% or so sounds right...which is still like a 20%-increase for the PS3 here. FF13 would have a better argument for an increase like SMG or Halo 3 than MGS4, and I don't think I'd buy that argument either. Then again, I'm of the opinion that the PS3 is out of the system-war this generation...but I still think logically speaking that MGS4 isn't going to push PS3's here like the other two examples. --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 3/24/2008 8:57:37 PM | message detail |
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Ike's another character who should get a good-sized boost. He wasn't in
that first big SSBB trailer, he's had a second game since the last
contest, he's a starter, and he's hugely popular with casuals. --- All you love is a lie. Brawl FC: 4253-3155-6697 |
| ZFS | Posted 3/24/2008 9:00:27 PM | message detail |
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I can see where you're coming, but I'm not so sure that the poll with
Halo 3 leading the way over everything is necessarily indicative that
it's a bigger deal in terms of pushing systems...here. It may end up
turning out that way -- I'd be surprised -- but those anticipation and
GotY polls speak two entirely different tales. I think we know at this
point that the more options Halo is up against the better it's going to
do. If you held MGS4 / SMG / Halo in a poll at that time I wouldn't
expect to see Halo pulling first or second. The fact that the PS3 has a meager 20% ownership on the site means there is plenty of room to grow, too. It isn't a matter of having 40% of the site already owning it before the big game comes along, like in the case of Halo, or well over 50% with Mario. I'd imagine for the majority of people who don't already own a PS3, they're waiting for that big reason to get one -- something like Metal Gear Solid 4. But we should have some sort of idea well before a contest gets underway, so it's probably best to just wait and see. I hadn't heard about this MGS4/PS3 bundle though -- HM, could you tell me more? You get an 80GB PS3, MGS4 and a Dual Shock 3 controller for $499.99. Really nice deal for anyone looking to get the system for Metal Gear. --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/24/2008 9:02:29 PM | message detail |
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Ike is someone I'd definitely like to see again. I mean, Marth pulled a solid showing based off Melee alone. Ike's got Brawl and two games to his name and from what I've seen when playing Brawl, Ike is total casual bait. I think he'd do well. No Noble Nine breaker, but he has the potential to be a bracket buster for sure. --- RPG 9/10 Not exactly RPG, let's just say kind of like graphics. winner of a golden trophy |
| Haste_2 | Posted 3/24/2008 9:22:57 PM | message detail |
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Any chance of Samus decreasing in strength because of ZSS in SSBB? Yes,
and I mean with her normal design. Remember that Samus did awful with a
ZSS picture, so maybe, aside from those who didn't recognize her in
that form, that some just don't like her that way. Pit and Meta Knight are the only newcomers I see benefiting from Brawl I would expect any character newly introduced in SSBB, that was not in the original trailer, to benefit the most. There's not many, though... ROB, Ike, Diddy Kong, Star Wolf, Sonic... I would imagine Pit would gain a bit more than Meta Knight because Pit was more obscure in the first place, and he just owns everyone in the game. Oh, and when I think about it.... the character who boosts the most is EASILY Captain Olimar. =P (er, as far as comparing back in SC2K3... though it was an SFF match; still doubt Olimar was much stronger than 12% on Mario...) I'm looking forward to seeing Sonic the most, I think. He did awful last contest considering being newly announced for SSBB in 4-way, so I'm curious to see how he does now. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Haste_2 | Posted 3/24/2008 9:24:15 PM | message detail |
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Oh, wait, Lucas might have benefited the most, being from J-only Mother 3. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| __Mega64__ | Posted 3/25/2008 9:18:54 AM | message detail |
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Bad wording. I meant Pit and Meta Knight will probably be the only
newcomers in Brawl that don't suck ass. Though there are good arguments
for Ike being good too. And I also forgot Charizard, who I imagine
would already have some strength. I still say we should get him in over
Mewtwo next contest. Even the Anime haters will love him since he
constantly beat the **** out of Ash! Even with all the possible boosts Snake can get, I still don't see him beating Samus. I think after fighting off Steroid Snake in 2k6 she's cemented herself as fifth, and I don't see her budging with Brawl Power on her side. Snake's definitely not budging from sixth, of course. Any chance of Samus decreasing in strength because of ZSS in SSBB? Yes, and I mean with her normal design. Remember that Samus did awful with a ZSS picture, so maybe, aside from those who didn't recognize her in that form, that some just don't like her that way. I don't buy it. She's only Zero Suit for, what, one or two stages in SSE? And you actually have to hold down a button to play as Zero Suit in Brawl unlike choosing Zelda/Shiek and Pokemon Trainer. Zero Suit's definitely more well-hidden than most other characters to the point where she's probably the least-used character of the lot of 39 total, so even if there was a negative effect, it'd be negligible. Summer's so far away... Sigh. --- Bikini pic of my girlfriend: http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/5820/n163906098313264325679fy7.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/25/2008 11:33:04 AM | message detail |
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I don't think ZSS would hurt Samus any more than Toon Link hurts Link. I also think Ike could look MUCH better than last year. He lost last year to Duke and Gordon while they were largely fighting over the PC-FPS fanbase, and the format probably favored the likes of hardcore SSBB-fans or FE-followers. Think about that....but this year, now that he's casually enjoyed in a game that 65% of the site has already played (while being hyped by the more hardcore SSBB-fans up until its release) and he's in another FE game, there's little doubt in my mind he beats Duke or Gordon one-on-one now. I don't know how much higher one should take him than that (probably not much), but that's still a nice leap from where we saw him last year. --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 3/25/2008 11:42:54 AM | message detail |
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I'm curious -- the people who think Samus would still beat Snake
post-Brawl / MGS4, do you guys really think Brawl / MP3 would be bigger
for Samus than Brawl / MGS4 for Snake? It's hard for me to ever see
that being the case. It's not like Samus killed Snake back when they
faced each other either. --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/25/2008 12:25:12 PM | message detail |
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I can see where you're coming, but I'm not so sure that the poll
with Halo 3 leading the way over everything is necessarily indicative
that it's a bigger deal in terms of pushing systems...here. It may end
up turning out that way -- I'd be surprised -- but those anticipation
and GotY polls speak two entirely different tales. I think we know at
this point that the more options Halo is up against the better it's
going to do. If you held MGS4 / SMG / Halo in a poll at that time I
wouldn't expect to see Halo pulling first or second. If it was MGS4/SMG/Halo 3, I think Halo 3 would have lost out to SMG because MP3 would have been out of the way and -- like you said -- it's quirky. I wouldn't put it out of the running for second though; in a poll with four options (one of which was unreliable due to rallying), MC still hung tough with Solid Snake last year...and Halo 3 did handily beat MGS4 and the rest of the games in that poll by 4+%, many options or no. It would have been close between MGS4 and Halo 3, at least. The fact that the PS3 has a meager 20% ownership on the site means there is plenty of room to grow, too. It isn't a matter of having 40% of the site already owning it before the big game comes along, like in the case of Halo, or well over 50% with Mario. I'd imagine for the majority of people who don't already own a PS3, they're waiting for that big reason to get one -- something like Metal Gear Solid 4. But we should have some sort of idea well before a contest gets underway, so it's probably best to just wait and see. There's all sorts of room to grow, sure, but ultimately I don't think MGS4 is to Sony like Halo 3 is to Microsoft or SMG is to Nintendo. Same goes for Solid to Sony compared to MC to Microsoft or Mario to Nintendo. We also see (debatable) proof that GameFAQs wanted/wants Halo 3 and SMG more than MGS4. We also know the PS3 costs more than the 360 or Wii. We also understand that Halo 3 and SMG had the holiday season to support them. We also acknowledge that Sony has trumped Microsoft for being the most hated company here right now ( http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2717 )... ...granted, the bundle should help MGS4 with this comparison and the PS3 has a smaller share of the GameFAQs demographic than the Wii or 360 so it has more room to grow. I just think that people are going to be less willing to support the PS3 for MGS4 when people have warmed up to the 360 and Wii much more and costs them less (or were more reasonable to ask for as gifts) to get games they were likely more hyped about in the first place...especially since the 360 and Wii have other well-known and loved titles as opposed to the PS3. You get an 80GB PS3, MGS4 and a Dual Shock 3 controller for $499.99. Really nice deal for anyone looking to get the system for Metal Gear. It sounds like a good deal for people who absolutely have to have MGS4, and it should help boost sales a bit more than if they didn't make the package. As a big fan of MGS though (probably only behind SMB and maybe SSB for me), honestly, if my room-mate doesn't buy MGS4 then I'll be missing it...unfortunate, but I'll spend my $500 on other games or some real-life needs instead. I suspect many others will be the same at least until the holidays, if not longer. It's definitely huge for the PS3, but they've still got to make people care enough about it to drop $500 and believe it will be worthwhile. I don't recall a time where that worked well in video game history to date. --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/25/2008 12:28:49 PM | message detail |
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I'll be honest: Solid > Samus looks like the logical choice, but I'm
scared to take it. Just a gut feeling, really...and I'd probably end up
going for the upset. It just irks at me a bit. --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 3/25/2008 12:51:58 PM | message detail |
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I'm curious -- the people who think Samus would still beat Snake
post-Brawl / MGS4, do you guys really think Brawl / MP3 would be bigger
for Samus than Brawl / MGS4 for Snake? It's hard for me to ever see
that being the case. It's not like Samus killed Snake back when they
faced each other either. The PS2 was still the most popular system on the site in 2006. The loss of Sony dominance should certainly hurt Snake. --- All you love is a lie. Brawl FC: 4253-3155-6697 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/25/2008 1:05:04 PM | message detail |
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True, but like I said above, I think the MGS series isn't connected to
Sony like Halo to Microsoft or Mario to Nintendo. While Sony's fall
from grace certainly affects Solid's future boosts like MGS4, I don't
know if I buy Sony's fall bringing Solid down right now. He was still
solid (hardy har har) last year and characters like Cloud still looked
as well as before. It doesn't help, but I'm not convinced it hurts him right now. --- Do you like suggesting ideas for contests? Come hither: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| voltch | Posted 3/25/2008 1:11:53 PM | message detail |
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So is there any way to estimate how much of an impact a game will have on a character's popularity? What i mean is a game like GTA 4 while massively popular is unlikely to make the main character someone dangerous in a gamefaqs contest setting. But as we keep saying brawl and guns of the patriots is likely to give a significant boost to Snake. So how do we link up and separate the effects of popular mainsteam games and popular gamefaqs games? --- For some reason I never know what to put here. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 3/25/2008 1:24:49 PM | message detail |
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Let's not forget that Snake > Samus also looked like the logical
choice in 2006. Steroid Snake had just destroyed Sonic and Mega Man
while Samus had struggled with Tifa and Zelda, Snake had Brawl hype and
momentum and all the intangibles you could imagine on his side. 63 out
of the 89 Gurus that day picked him to win outright, and with so much
faith that the average prediction had him winning with nearly 52%. And
look how that
turned out- a 8000 vote, 6.22% no-doubter, where Snake couldn't manage
a single winning update outside of his 3am to 7am graveyard shift block. Sorry HM- had that '06 final been a nailbiter, I'd agree that Snake has done enough to turn the result around, but instead we saw Samus post a significant win, and so it's a result I don't see changing anytime soon. --- Hot Content A'hoy: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content. |
| ZFS | Posted 3/25/2008 1:27:37 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't put it out of the running for second though; in a poll
with four options (one of which was unreliable due to rallying), MC
still hung tough with Solid Snake last year...and Halo 3 did handily
beat MGS4 and the rest of the games in that poll by 4+%, many options
or no. It would have been close between MGS4 and Halo 3, at least. I don't think you use any match that had L-Block and have it hold any water. If you removed L-Block from that match and stuck in another character, maybe even a strong character, Snake's going to take that poll easy, even with the format being kind to Master Chief. Halo benefited a lot in that poll, the conditions were ideal -- there was no other 360-centric game there, no other game similar to it, and there were a lot of options to choose from. That's a best case scenario for anything Halo-related. I remember that poll being thrown around to lend credence to the idea that Master Chief would do better in the four character format over one-on-one because of the split options. I'm not sure how it would have gone at the time, but given how unimpressive Galaxy was in polls before it came out and Halo being Halo, I would have expected a three-way there to go to MGS4. There's no way of knowing, and I don't even think it proves anything regarding system selling status, but I wouldn't have seen Halo coming in anything but third then nor Galaxy being a clear winner. There's all sorts of room to grow, sure, but ultimately I don't think MGS4 is to Sony like Halo 3 is to Microsoft or SMG is to Nintendo. Same goes for Solid to Sony compared to MC to Microsoft or Mario to Nintendo. Is Metal Gear and Snake a mascot for Sony? Not really -- Snake's about as independent as they come. But is Metal Gear Solid a big system seller for the PS brand? Absolutely. I don't think there's any question as to how much of a push we're going to see for Metal Gear here in a couple of months. While the marketing won't be as ridiculous as Halo (no SNAKE FUEL unfortunately!), we're going to see MGS4 tied to the PS3 in the same way Halo 3 is to the 360 or Mario is to Wii. And with the PS3 having far more room to grow than the Wii or 360 had here, it pushing the ownership percentage far more wouldn't be surprising. It's definitely huge for the PS3, but they've still got to make people care enough about it to drop $500 and believe it will be worthwhile. I don't recall a time where that worked well in video game history to date. I'm not trying to bring up any console war business, or get too into sales discussion, but the PS3 has outsold the 360 in the America the past two months, and has been outselling the 360 worldwide since last year. There's been a definite shift in perception in regards to the PS3, and people aren't nearly as object to buying the system as they were in the first half of 2007. The PS2 was still the most popular system on the site in 2006. The loss of Sony dominance should certainly hurt Snake. what --- 6.12.2008 -- Sneak Out |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 3/25/2008 1:32:42 PM | message detail |
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Speaking of which, '07 gave us another neat way to compare the two. Snake - 16.83% of the vote against Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth Samus - 16.78% of the vote against Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth Considering how last year made it pretty clear that 4-way polls give a significant boost to independent/unleachable characters like Master Chief and Snake, and how Samus had to deal with a potential inter-company beatdown from the King of SFF, that's a hugely impressive performance out of her- especially considering how now she's got Brawl to keep her propped up. --- Hot Content A'hoy: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/25/2008 1:34:20 PM | message detail |
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Let's not forget that Snake > Samus also looked like the logical
choice in 2006. Steroid Snake had just destroyed Sonic and Mega Man
while Samus had struggled with Tifa and Zelda, Snake had Brawl hype and
momentum and all the intangibles you could imagine on his side. 63 out
of the 89 Gurus that day picked him to win outright, and with so much
faith that the average prediction had him winning with nearly 52%. And
look how that turned out- a 8000 vote, 6.22% no-doubter, where Snake
couldn't manage a single winning update outside of his 3am to 7am
graveyard shift block. Sorry HM- had that '06 final been a nailbiter, I'd agree that Snake has done enough to turn the result around, but instead we saw Samus post a significant win, and so it's a result I don't see changing anytime soon. That... isn't a logical conclusion. That Snake looked stronger is the fault of Samus, he looked just as strong last year as far as throttling Sonic again went, at least. If anything, the fact that Snake will actually have a big subset of the board's brackets this time around (as opposed to last time where Samus was the contest favorite) means a heckuva lot more to me than people thinking he will win. This has shades of Snake/Mega Man III - Samus won by 53% and some change, nothing more. About as much as MM was projected to get on Snake in 2005... --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
