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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 548

H__RR____H | Posted 12/14/2007 7:26:23 AM | message detail
*pulls out my personal monocle*

Whoa whoa whoa, who said this topic was dead? You were the only one saying that...!

WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO HIDE -- I WANT ANSWERS!!!
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Ngamer64 | Posted 12/14/2007 5:03:53 PM | message detail
Stats still dead? Uh oh! Better revive it with another hot LL result! This one actually came as quite the surprise to me.

Best handheld ever?
Gameboy (Color) 10.82% 218
Gameboy Advance 18.42% 371
Nintendo DS 44.79% 902
Playstation Portable 12.31% 248
Gamegear/Sega Nomad 3.87% 78
Game.com 0.89% 18
I don't like handhelds. 7.70% 155
Other 1.19% 24
TOTAL VOTES 2014

Whoa, DS domination! Despite both the original GB and the GBA far outselling it currently, and even though I'd previously said that LLers are generally more nostalgic when it comes to what gaming trends they support, all that gets thrown to the wayside in favor of what a great handheld the DS is, or at least how great its library is right now. Hmmm...

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Hot Content A'hoy: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
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H__RR____H | Posted 12/15/2007 12:21:10 AM | message detail
Yeah, the DS has gotten pretty popular I hear...!

We need to see what its ownership here is nowadays, by the way...and the same goes for the 360.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
PortugalTheMann | Posted 12/15/2007 10:58:17 PM | message detail
yo chin boy, you already got your money from the contest?

I still haven't got anything... I just had one initial email asking to confirm my email and address and nothing since.

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hungry like the wolf
swirIdude | Posted 12/15/2007 11:02:05 PM | message detail
So uhh...Mega Man fulfills HM's promise 4 years late and wins contest with the power of SSBB, Yay or Nay?
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At least you don't have death perception. Then you'd have to fight vampires and stuff. ~paperwarrior
National Shoddy Battle League: 2-2
Ngamer64 | Posted 12/15/2007 11:09:48 PM | message detail
Hmm... well if not for Snake and Sonic benefiting from the same potential boost, I'd have to at least consider yaying that, since there's a good chance we'll see a 1v1 w/ Champs removed bracket against next year. As is though... got to nay.

Today's poll, ugh, stuff like this makes me want to take back all those compliments I gave SB the last few weeks. How can you run the same poll again, only 27 days later, when there's actually INTERESTING data on the 360 and DS that we haven't heard a thing on in over 5 months? It seems like he's going to move on and ask about at least the 360 tomorrow or the next day, but regardless, what a waste of a poll to ask about the Wii again considering that most of the 950,000 of them that were sold the last 30 days wouldn't even have an effect on this list yet, since they're Christmas presents.

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Hot Content A'hoy: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 12/16/2007 1:08:08 AM | message detail
We need Crono in SSBB so he can become a legit elite character once again.
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YEAHDUDE!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
H__RR____H | Posted 12/16/2007 2:06:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, they sent back my online certificate and everything that same day. I've not used mine yet though (waiting for SSBB!).

You may want to e-mail them again.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Haste_2 | Posted 12/17/2007 6:14:18 AM | message detail
Bold prediction: Meta Knight goes one round further than expected next contest.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 12/17/2007 11:06:19 AM | message detail
Bolder prediction: Meta-Knight is snubbed next contest.
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Hero
Haste_2 | Posted 12/17/2007 11:44:21 AM | message detail
Impossible. =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
MnMZero | Posted 12/17/2007 11:49:23 AM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Zero still doesn't know what he's fighting for during the next contest.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
H__RR____H | Posted 12/17/2007 12:44:03 PM | message detail
Ha, just messing around for the most part about Meta-Knight...though I think it's more likely he's snubbed than surpass our expectations AGAIN.


Here's an honest prediction (one that I got right for the 2k6 contest, too!): Magus is snubbed in the next character contest.
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H__RR____H | Posted 12/17/2007 1:14:45 PM | message detail
So...how will the Character Battle be affected next year if it's returned to the one-on-one format?

I'm not going to preach Nintendo-domination this year since we didn't see too much of it last year (barring upsets likes Pikachu-n-gang and expected ones like Link)...but I'd still expect impressive numbers from Mario. Depending on my mood, I might take him as an upset over Sephiroth thanks to SMG and SSBB, not to mention the DS and Wii selling about as well as anybody could ask for. I wanna see how SMG does in the GotY-polls though. I'd also think probably any character that's NEW to the SSB series will get a good boost while the rest of the cast have favorable intangibles on their side after its release.

I don't think Master Chief will look nearly as great as he did this year, though he ought to be as strong as ever. I'm still thinking this year couldn't have been any more favorable to him if it tried...and he impressed, yes, but when you let Halo 3 no longer be immediately hot and bring it back to one-on-one matches, I don't think he'll hold up the same from there on. Still, I think he's now past losing to the likes of Frog or Sub-Zero again. I don't think he's beating Dante or Luigi or hanging tough with Solid Snake one-on-one though...some happy medium between those two spots. Just not where he's at this year.



Anything else of note?
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/17/2007 1:25:00 PM | message detail
Solid Snake over Mario might be a good upset for next year... well, if he got 43% on Mario in '05 I figure he would've done a few points better after the SSBB hype... of course, Mario has gotten SMG. I honestly wonder if that'll give him a boost (I wouldn't say it's a given). Of course, Solid Snake over Samus is probably an even better possibility.

I figure anything could still happen among Sonic, Crono, and Mega Man.... and maybe add Squall and Vincent to the mix. Oh, and if Luigi vs. Bowser was set up, I would SO take Luigi... I don't care what anyone says...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 12/17/2007 9:02:16 PM | message detail
...I'd wait until MGS4 until I considered Solid to beat Mario. Not that the PS3 is hot right now, but Solid would need every intangible he can get. It wouldn't be impossible, but that's one I'm staying away from. Solid > Samus is MUCH more possible though, and it'd be a rematch I'd love to see this year...

...when's MGS4 coming out though?


I'm taking Sonic > Crono and Mega Man for sure until further notice. Mega Man barely beat Sonic and Sonic barely beat Crono before Sonic was ever announced for SSBB...and now that it'll be out by the next contest while the most that either one of them have had in a long time is that Mega Man turned 20...Sonic's shutting them down unless either one of them get a huge release soon. As for Crono/Mega Man...I hate to, but until they get something notable I have to take Crono > Mega Man. I'll take their one-on-one match in 2k5 over their x-stats in 2k6, I don't really want to rely on their numbers from this year, and I think Crono/Magus/Frog/CT have shown before that if it's still a close match that Crono can pull it out.


Luigi > Bowser isn't talk I'd look down on, but we've seen Bowser > Yoshi and Yoshi > Luigi...plus I like how Bowser did against Crono more than I like how Luigi did against Sonic. I've always wondered if Luigi could beat Bowser, but it's not a pick I'd take.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 12/18/2007 11:31:20 AM | message detail
what the hell just realized the gift certificate went to my spam folder

augh
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swirIdude | Posted 12/18/2007 11:33:09 AM | message detail
rofl you had money in your spam folder.
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At least you don't have death perception. Then you'd have to fight vampires and stuff. ~paperwarrior
H__RR____H | Posted 12/18/2007 11:44:07 AM | message detail
haw haw take that chin-hater
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 12/18/2007 3:12:55 PM | message detail
augh whatever
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hungry like the wolf
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/19/2007 10:22:24 AM | message detail
k

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: FF12, FFT: WotL, Etrian Odyssey
H__RR____H | Posted 12/19/2007 4:16:02 PM | message detail
What are all of the big releases we need to prepare for next year?

The main ones I can think of that are currently on the plate for 2k8 are: GTA4, DMC4, SSBB, Starcraft 2, MGS4, RE5, and Mario Kart Wii. Are there any other big ones on the way in the next year? I don't think the next FF is due by then.....
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/19/2007 4:31:09 PM | message detail
KH365 and KHBBS, as well as NGDS and NG2. Certainly keeps Ryu/Riku interesting...
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All you love is a lie.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/19/2007 4:48:59 PM | message detail
Not to mention Bioware's Sonic RPG for the DS. No idea when it's coming out though, and its performance could be anything without surprising me.
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All you love is a lie.
H__RR____H | Posted 12/19/2007 5:07:41 PM | message detail
I'd have to take Riku's upcoming games over Hayabusa's, and thus Riku > Hayabusa if they duke it out again some day.


Sonic's in for a good boost next year. I don't think any of the Sonic characters were treated well by this year's format, and when he gets SSBB/Olympics/Sonic RPG plus whatever else he's had in the past two years...I think he's going to come out looking pretty good next year! He'll beat Crono and Mega Man in rematches, and he'll have off-chances at Solid Snake or Samus. I don't think he'll be up to Mario's level though (even pre-SMG), but there are still people who say everything's out the window in a Mario/Sonic match...so who knows.

No (El) Clinkeroth-levels though!!!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/19/2007 5:17:02 PM | message detail
I'd have to take Riku's upcoming games over Hayabusa's

Really? NG2 is actually a console game and the first NG for the 360, while the DS KH hasn't been getting too much hype and the PSP isn't too popular around here.

I'm not even sure how big of a role Riku's going to have in his games.
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All you love is a lie.
ZFS | Posted 12/19/2007 5:19:57 PM | message detail
The main ones I can think of that are currently on the plate for 2k8 are: GTA4, DMC4, SSBB, Starcraft 2, MGS4, RE5, and Mario Kart Wii. Are there any other big ones on the way in the next year? I don't think the next FF is due by then.....

You can probably cut SC2 and RE5 from the list, too.

Those are probably about all that would matter for the contest, though.

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'You can't be serious...not in such a pure, clean, mega-hit RPG as this...!'
PortugalTheMann | Posted 12/19/2007 5:21:54 PM | message detail
im glad snake > samus talks are starting to brew, this'll make samus > seph all the sweeter!
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
therealmnm | Posted 12/19/2007 5:25:51 PM | message detail
I'd have to take Riku's upcoming games over Hayabusa's,

Really? Ninja Gaiden 2 is looking to be Ryu's biggest game yet as far as exposure goes. I mean, look how much attention Assassin's Creed has gotten. Xbox 360 software has been selling damn well. Ryu's definitely going to gain plenty exposure from it now that the Xbox is on a level playing field.

I don't think Riku has as much room for growth. Kingdom Hearts is already huge on this site. Unless he gets a starring role or something, I can't see Riku benefiting more.
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Currently playing: GH III, Assassin's Creed, Dead Rising, The Darkness, Call of Duty 4, FFT: War of the Lions, PW:AA Justice for All, Dracula X Chronicles
H__RR____H | Posted 12/19/2007 5:28:54 PM | message detail
1) I didn't realize those KH games were handheld games...I figured they were KH2-remixes of some sort.
2) Is NG2 going to be an original game and a true sequel, or is it going to be like NGB or NGS?
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ZFS | Posted 12/19/2007 5:30:38 PM | message detail
NG2's the actual sequel. Should be coming out in a few months.

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'You can't be serious...not in such a pure, clean, mega-hit RPG as this...!'
H__RR____H | Posted 12/19/2007 5:32:37 PM | message detail
Ah...well this flips my opinion completely! I stikk think Riku has more intangibles than Hayabusa...but as far as what's coming up for them and their potential, I'll take Hayabusa for that. I'd like to see them duke it out one-on-one this year!!!
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therealmnm | Posted 12/19/2007 5:55:50 PM | message detail
I'm not saying Ryu beats Riku. I just disagreed with your assumption that Riku stands to gain more than Ryu. Depending on how the marketing scheme goes for NG2, Ryu stands to benefit more in my eyes. I'm still shocked by how impressive the marketing scheme was for Assassin's Creed. I'm really hoping that Ryu and NG2 get similar exposure.
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Currently playing: GH III, Assassin's Creed, Dead Rising, The Darkness, Call of Duty 4, FFT: War of the Lions, PW:AA Justice for All, Dracula X Chronicles
Haste_2 | Posted 12/20/2007 3:08:55 AM | message detail
More "accurate" x-stats have been posted now. But, you know how x-stats are, so feel free to mock!

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=39355606

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 12/20/2007 1:13:54 PM | message detail
Ha, yay...attempted stats!


They need adjustments!!!
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H__RR____H | Posted 12/20/2007 1:23:11 PM | message detail
I love today's poll and results, by the way...which leads me to my next question: whenever DNF is released, will it actually help Duke any here?
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swirIdude | Posted 12/20/2007 1:35:03 PM | message detail
Maybe a little bit.
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At least you don't have death perception. Then you'd have to fight vampires and stuff. ~paperwarrior
JUS Code: 1246-7310-4689
voltch | Posted 12/20/2007 1:36:54 PM | message detail
I'd love to see a kratos level duke nukem.
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Explicit Content the new Guru Champion sure did an awesome job of making me look like turd.
Xcarvengerx | Posted 12/22/2007 3:35:37 AM | message detail
Nice work, Ngamer!

(whoops wrong topic... >_>)

(ps. stealth bump)
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Xcarvengerx: The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 12/24/2007 12:34:04 AM | message detail
Golly, still no talk happening. Well I guess in that case I'll post about my update from a couple days back.

Let's start with what's new on the front page!

http://thengamer.com/xstats/

- dropdown box to view any character's history/past results/previous x-values that you want (this is now on the top of every page just because I like those character histories so much)
- can create matchups using the 2007 numbers now
- the random pictures cycling through now include the '07 match pics

On to the stats themselves...

http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2007c

This are the values Haste came up with, scaled so that Cloud '06 = Cloud '07 (I didn't think Link felt very constant this year). Basically he made use of the value that a character was worth based on their latest result where they weren't badly SFFed/LFFed. So like for Auron, he wouldn't be based on the awful result Cloud handed him, but instead what he did the previous round. A couple characters never ended up getting any kind of reliable result, sometimes due to L-Block, so Haste had to make a rough estimate and just peg them in the range they probably fell into, but for the most part this list is based on solid enough evidence.

And the extremely crazy Raw version...

http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2007c&raw

Morgoth created these by sticking as closely to the traditional method as possible, which is to say, everyone is based off how they performed in the matchup where they were eliminated, as defined by the value of the #1 finisher on that day. So Sonic and Squall and MC look great because they're based off getting bumped off by L-Block, but Snake looks bad because even though L-Block eliminated him, Link and Cloud sucked up so many votes in that Final that he still can't impress. These numbers are of course 90% worthless, but I wanted to go with the Rawest set of Raws imaginable just to display what a crazy Contest this was.

And then my favorite part as I mentioned, the Character Histories...

http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Samus

'07 values and pics are displaying, unfortunately though it's difficult to return full match results... but I'm working on that. I also added a note that only 1v1s count toward the win/loss results, since some were sure to be confused there, and then I've attached links to everyone's B8wiki page on the bottom. Which for the most part isn't too worthwhile an addition right now, but I'm working on bringing them all up to date at the moment, so someday it will be so handy that you'll thank me for it.

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Ngamer64 | Posted 12/24/2007 1:52:58 AM | message detail
In other news, here's my full suggestion to SB regarding the upcoming GotY tournament.
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Game of the Year time is just around the corner, so I thought I'd make a suggestion for a more fun (and accurate!) way to determine the site GotY than the current poll format. Basically, the idea is to create an 8-game GotY tournament, where the winner would be determined in a series of 1v1 matchups. Before I get into how this could be accomplished, here are some of the Pros of this new format:

- Assuming Super Mario Galaxy and Halo 3 are at similar strength this year (which seems reasonable), the problem with the current system is that if the Final Game of the Year poll has everyone pick between Galaxy/H3/God of War II, Galaxy wins easily. But if the poll asks Galaxy, H3, or Phantom Hourglass, then Halo will earn GotY in a walk. The same kind of overlapping problem exists on all levels of the current system, but would be made much more fair in a 1v1 format.

- People might balk at the creation of another GameFAQs tournament because of the length of the Summer Contests, but in reality this GotY would only run for 7 days- as opposed to the _14_ days that GotY polls ran last year.

- Someone might object to seeing Galaxy in 3 different polls as it advances to the Final, but keep in mind that Twilight Princess appeared in _4_ GotY polls just last year.

- Part of the reason the current system works is that in the process of getting to the Final GotY, the Wii/360/etc GotY are also determined, something a tournament could not duplicate. With this in mind, here is my suggestion that would result in the best of both worlds.

Sometime after Christmas, link to a 2007 Game of the Year form directly from the front page. Here, voters would be able to select their choice for GotY on each system by picking the game from a dropdown box that would be populated with the 6-8 choices that would normally be run in the Best of System poll. So the form could read

+ Best Wii Game
+ Best 360 Game
+ Best PS3 Game
+ Best PS2 Game
+ Best Handheld Game
+ Best PC/Multiplatform Game

(Personally I would suggest that the default option is I didnt play any games on this system this year, so the people would be encouraged to just pick from the consoles they have experience with.) Then the top 8 vote-getters based on this form would advance to become the 8 games represented in the GotY tournament. This would work out well because...

+ Due to the form split, each system would be represented in the tournament (unless a console was _extremely_ weak that year, which I guess is at least a possibility for the PS3).

+ The most popular consoles would be rewarded with 2 representatives; a deserving game like Metroid Prime 3 or BioShock could still earn a spot even though it won't finish #1 for its system

+ Tallying these form results would also determine the GotY for each console, and those results could be made available in lieu of running a whole new poll.

Beyond that it would just be a matter of structuring the bracket to avoid unnecessary blowouts (such as Galaxy dominating Prime in R1, or Halo doing the same to BioShock). As an example, here is a likely top 8 that I could see resulting in a very exciting and enjoyable GotY tourney

1. Super Mario Galaxy
8. Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction

4. God of War II
5. BioShock

3. Zelda: Phantom Hourglass
6. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock

2. Halo 3
7. Metroid Prime 3
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Alternatively, if you feel that only 8 games wouldn't represent the year well enough, I should point out that a 16-game tournament would still only run for 15 days- only a single day more than the 2006 GotY polls lasted.

In any case, thanks for your time!
~Ng
Haste_2 | Posted 12/25/2007 3:39:28 PM | message detail
Merry Christmas to all!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 12/25/2007 4:10:08 PM | message detail
Have you heard any feedback about it since the suggestion N?

I do like the idea of a tourney for GotY...but I also like seeing as many games as our past GotY-polls have shown, too. Plus, I was personally looking forward to seeing how SMG, MP3, Super Paper Mario, Mario & Sonic at the Olympics, Mario Party 8, and whatever else got spread in the Wii-GotY poll...as well as how well Bioshock could stand up to Halo 3, given the praise it's had.


Maybe it's not the best way and I know it'd take a bit longer...but what if after the initial system-polls, SB then picked the top one from each system as well as the two he felt like were most deserving to be in an eight-game bracket? He could seed them however and we'd still have plenty of games given the chance to be GotY in the polls we love. It would last about five more days, but that would be my favorite best-of-both-worlds situation...plus last year was a long GotY-period anyway, since the Gamecube and GBA were represented.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/25/2007 4:17:25 PM | message detail
MP8 vs. M&S Olympics for the finals!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 12/25/2007 6:51:24 PM | message detail
Ha, I know they're not winning...I just want to see how they compete with the two big Nintendo games this year. Also, though it's not a cause for an upset, I'd like to see SMG, SPM, MP8, M&S, Super Mario Strikers Charged, and whatever else...plus Metroid Prime 3. I wonder if MP3 would over-perform or anything.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/26/2007 7:39:09 AM | message detail
So... I'm not "in" these days... which will probably do better in the GotY, Bioshock or Mass Effect? And, I'm kinda thinking GoW2 won't do that well.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 12/26/2007 9:51:12 AM | message detail
I've not heard a lot about Mass Effect whereas I've heard a LOT about Bioshock, plus I don't know anybody personally who bought ME. With Halo 3 in there to drain many of the votes, I'm predicting Bioshock hangs in there better than ME.
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H__RR____H | Posted 12/26/2007 10:06:01 AM | message detail
Oh, and GoW2...Kratos did well this year despite L-Block, the PS2 is still the most owned system here, and GoW2 is UNDOUBTEDLY far and away the biggest game on the PS2 this year. I understand it sold as well or better compared to GoW1, and I understand that it was typically better received than GoW1 too...

...granted, GoW1 fought with Mario Kart DS in 2005 for the runner-up position when RE4 won the GotY. That said, RE4 was huge and multi-platform...it would have likely competed with SMG or Halo 3 when it was new. Also, after SMG and Halo 3, I don't think any other game this year would do much better than MKDS did in 2k5. Those odds alone probably favor GoW2 some...and we know SMG would deal damage to MP3-LoZ:PH-Pokemon D/P in the first GotY-poll while Halo 3 likely smashes Bioshock-ME there. If it's not one of those games that makes the final poll, it's GOT to be GoW2.


I have felt the same way about GoW2 in my gut, but after looking all of that over I don't see how it can't make it into the final GotY-poll...unless, you know, SB decides we don't need a PS2-poll this year, ha. Gamecube got one last year though, so...can't count on that!
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H__RR____H | Posted 12/26/2007 10:07:34 AM | message detail
One more question: what game'll win the multi-platform GotY this year?
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Ngamer64 | Posted 12/26/2007 2:22:53 PM | message detail
Don't joke around HaR- that's clearly GHIII.

Haven't heard back from SB yet due to the holidays... hopefully he doesn't stay away from those tickets TOO many more days here, since it would be strange to start a GotY tourney too far after Jan 1.

Regarding the 360, Mass Effect and BioShock are very interesting to me... ME is the critical darling and got the prime GotY release date, but BioShock was well-reviewed as well and has it all over ME when it comes to sales. But then again, surely Halo's FPS-SFF is going to be holding BS back somewhat, wouldn't you think? Just a question of it that will be a big enough break to let ME slip through.

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