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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 548

RPGuy96 | Posted 1/10/2008 9:20:54 PM | message detail
Nearly every game in this poll is day vote friendly, though. Mario, Zelda, God of War...There's also no reason to believe that Call of Duty would fall apart during the day, console shooters have a pretty solid track record. Halo's going to have to settle for third.

This'll probably be the lowest we ever see a Final Fantasy and Zelda title in a mixed poll. Under 5% apiece!
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ZFS | Posted 1/10/2008 9:22:23 PM | message detail
We've been over this -- or I've been over this -- before. Anywhere else, this is expected; COD4 has been racking up awards left and right, and it scored well everywhere. The surprise comes from GameFAQs, who hasn't exactly shown love to First Person Shooters in the past, liking it as much as the poll indicates. If this were any other game site, this would have, or at least should have, been predicted.

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Big Bob | Posted 1/10/2008 9:22:55 PM | message detail
Around these parts, COD4 is just seen as typical shooter fare; it doesn't have that outside appeal that Bioshock or Gears of War might have, so people passed it up. This result was certainly a surprise.
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 1/10/2008 9:26:10 PM | message detail
I'm not surprised at all. COD4 was getting an insane amount of hype and the sales for the game are rediculous. It also got better review scores than Halo 3 and if you ask just about any Xbox 360 fan, they will tell you that COD4 blows away Halo 3. Go over to the 360 boards if you don't believe me, they hate Halo 2.5. Don't forget COD4 is also multiplatform which helps it even more.
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ZFS | Posted 1/10/2008 9:32:24 PM | message detail
Not to disagree with the idea of COD4 being popular, but it and Halo 3 scored pretty much the same. It wasn't a universal thing, certainly not to such a degree that it should be expected that it would be Halo.

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MegatokyoEd | Posted 1/10/2008 9:39:01 PM | message detail
A lot of Halo fans on the internet disappointed with 3 though, went to CoD4 afterward.
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redrocket | Posted 1/10/2008 9:40:32 PM | message detail
I think that Halo fans were expecting a bit more than Madden FPS 08.

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HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2008 9:45:17 PM | message detail
It's interesting that, not only do FPS's typically not do so well on GameFAQs, but also that multi-platform games have never done that well in GotY-polls here. Also, the fact that CoD3 was a bomb and that the series pre-CoD4 wasn't that much above the likes of Counter-Strike...that makes this all the more impressive.

CoD4 (and therefore some of its competition in its multi-platform poll) is looking great despite the odds and is currently smoking arguably the most popular FPS series' latest entry that made more money with its opening than Spiderman 3.


That's pretty amazing to me. Kudos.
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ZFS | Posted 1/10/2008 9:49:27 PM | message detail
It's not the place to get into here, but 'Halo 2.5' is the furthest thing from what Halo 3 is. I've seen some disappoint from people around here, but nothing to indicate it's this widespread thing.

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HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2008 9:50:50 PM | message detail
Oh, and GoW2...tsk tsk. It may have been because the PS2 is becoming more and more behind the times, but it really ought to be closer to Halo 3 than an expansion for WoW -- and especially not have it possible to lose to said expansion.
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transcience | Posted 1/10/2008 10:01:03 PM | message detail
I said it in the other topic, but WOW is completely nonlinear and shouldn't be looked at as far as a comparison goes. this is pretty bad by GOW2 no matter how you slice it, but don't compare it to WOW. I think there's some truth to it being a January game on an old console, though.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2008 10:28:54 PM | message detail
Alright then, but getting doubled by Halo 3 and tripled by CoD4 -- ESPECIALLY when they're all in the same poll and the FPS-fanbase may be torn -- is very poor. I'll attribute it mostly to its release time and being on a practically dead system, sure...but something tells me it's not just that. I mean, it got as good or better reviews than GoW1 from critics and fans alike and the game probably sold just as well too...but maybe the GameFAQs fanbase didn't feel the need to get it like the first one? It was coming right after Christmas as well as the Wii and PS3 still being brand-new, and several big-name games (LoZ:TP, FF12, Gears of War) came along with them.

I could see the GameFAQs community not feeling so urgent about playing the game because of all the surrounding games and systems, but only in hindsight. I didn't think this was going to happen to it.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 1/10/2008 10:30:13 PM | message detail
I'm glad COD4 is doing so well. It's really just fantastic.
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Gaddswell | Posted 1/10/2008 10:38:22 PM | message detail
Whoa, didn't expect CoD4 > Halo 3.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/11/2008 12:52:03 AM | message detail
Ah ha, now I remember why I like Contest season so much. During Contest season when someone says, "lol! I can't believe you dopes were expecting anything out of Halo 2.5!" or "wait wait, how am I the only one here who realized H3 was the Madden '08 of FPSes?" you at least get to counter with "oh really, genius? hmmm, odd that I don't see CoD4 in your bracket..." or alternatively "startling revelation, Hindsight Nostradamus. now explain why you took Halo with 58% of the vote in the Oracle."

Now, please permit me to lay down some data from those who made actual predictions, based on what tranny and I and 9 others expected to see out of today's poll. If you average our preds and compare to where we stand now...

- CoD 4 is overperforming by 6.94%

- Galaxy is overperforming by 2.64%

And the losers...

- Zelda PH is underperforming by 3.03%

- Halo 3 is underperforming by 6.41%

- GoW II is underperforming by 6.52%(!)

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MnMZero | Posted 1/11/2008 6:12:33 AM | message detail
Yeah, I thought Halo 3 and Call of Duty would be close to even with it being a multi-poll hurting CoD4 more than Halo 3 (thought there were more "hardcore" Halo 3 fans). I think I had Halo 3 beating CoD4 by 4%. I'm pretty surprised about the poll though. This is the final evidence that GameFAQs has changed. I've gotten indication that Call of Duty 4 was generally more liked by the Xbox fanbase, but never thought that so much of that Xbox fanbase was on GameFAQs now. Yesterday's poll should have been an indication though.

As for how Halo was received, yeah it got good reviews, but after the game was released and everyone finished playing it, the love wasn't so widespread. That was amplified after CoD4 came out. It seemed like Halo was nowhere to be found in talk for GotY as far as writers went. I think EGM or Game Informer had their editors give their top 10 games of the year and Halo 3 made one list out of 8. And at #7 on that list, no less.

So yeah, I guess it is pleasantly surprising to see that GameFAQs doesn't see the Xbox 360 as the Halo box and that there are other good games on the system that they like more.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/11/2008 6:37:40 AM | message detail
Couple of things:
Galaxy is nearly beating Call of Duty 4 and Halo 3 combined (33.67% to 34.24%).
Crysis, a PC shooter that nobody can even play, is nearly beating Ratchet and Clank despite there being two other FPS in the poll.
There's an epic battle between Tactics and Phantom Hourglass - Final Fantasy has the advantage now, but Zelda has the day vote to look forward to. Perhaps one of them will break 6%!
There's another epic battle between God of War II and World of WarCraft - WoW leads but we know GoW is good during the day. Of course, we also saw WarCraft come back on GTA during the day...
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swirIdude | Posted 1/11/2008 6:38:53 AM | message detail
It's Friday so most of the fans will be playing the game instead of voting!
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neonreaper | Posted 1/11/2008 6:51:49 AM | message detail
People don't love Halo 3 the way that they loved 1 and 2.
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H__RR____H | Posted 1/11/2008 7:54:52 AM | message detail
Here's some more fun stuff I'm noticing:



1) This will be the second year in a row that th PSP-GotY does better than the PS3-GotY. Heh.....

2) Bioshock would have had a really good shot against Halo 3 and would have likely beaten ME in the 360-poll...and it would have been fun watching those three take 90+% of the poll.

3) Fun question: would you take CoD4 or Gears of War if they faced off? CoD4 has 21.06% in today's poll right now with Halo 3 in the mix while SMG is in first...while Gears had 21.4% against FF12 and LoZ:TP in the GotY-final poll last year. I think it's fair to assume LoZ:TP > SMG and FF12 > Halo 3, but CoD4 has 21+% in the GotY-overall poll with another highly-acclaimed FPS from a much bigger series...Gears didn't have that handi-cap. That seems like a very interesting situation to me.
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MnMZero | Posted 1/11/2008 8:05:52 AM | message detail
3) Fun question: would you take CoD4 or Gears of War if they faced off? CoD4 has 21.06% in today's poll right now with Halo 3 in the mix while SMG is in first...while Gears had 21.4% against FF12 and LoZ:TP in the GotY-final poll last year. I think it's fair to assume LoZ:TP > SMG and FF12 > Halo 3, but CoD4 has 21+% in the GotY-overall poll with another highly-acclaimed FPS from a much bigger series...Gears didn't have that handi-cap. That seems like a very interesting situation to me.

Ummm, CoD4 easily. Gears might have had a slightly better showing overall, but remember, Gears was one of the only shows in town on the Xbox 360. The fanbase had to pay attention to it. The popularity that CoD4 is receiving is being done amidst a ton of games out on the system. If Gears of War were to be released right now, I don't think it could do anything to stand out much among Bioshock, Halo 3, CoD4, AC, and Mass Effect. It'd probably be about as popular as Bioshock was.
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H__RR____H | Posted 1/11/2008 8:47:42 AM | message detail
Quick question: does anybody know why CoD4 didn't come to the Wii? It looks like the Gamecube got CoD1 and CoD2, and I know CoD3 hit the Wii as well...so I'm surprised that they did not allow this heavily marketed and well-received game to be on arguably the most popular system right now that seems best for the FPS-genre! It also doesn't look like it's getting CoD5 right now...I dunno, just seems rather odd. Was there some kind of falling out with Nintendo or something?
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 1/11/2008 11:31:13 AM | message detail
The Gamecube didn't get Call of Duty 1 or 2, COD1 was on PC only and COD2 was for PC and 360.
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MnMZero | Posted 1/11/2008 11:45:32 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/search/index.html?game=Call+of+Duty&platform=0

It's kinda complicated. The GC got Call of Duty 2:Big Red One, which is another CoD game made by a developer other than Infinity Ward, who made the real Call of Duty 2. Activision controls the Call of Duty franchise, so they let other developers make games under the name too. Most of those are crap. Call of Duty: Finest Hour falls under the same boat. The real Call of Duty 2 was only made for the PC and Xbox 360, developed by Infinity Ward, and is the game that gets all of the love. Call of Duty 3 was released for the Xbox, Xbox 360, PS2, PS3, and Wii. You can see what is the lowest common denominator there as far as hardware goes (PS2) which is why it could be ported to the Wii. It basically was another Activision cash cow of the Call of Duty name.

Call of Duty 4 is the true sequel to Call of Duty 2 by Infinity Ward (I read that Infinity Ward even has the executable named cod3.exe or something of that sort. They deny CoD3's existence). They probably would need to alter the game significantly to make it run on the Wii and I don't think IW is interested in doing that at all.
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neonreaper | Posted 1/11/2008 11:45:59 AM | message detail
that seems best for the FPS-genre!

because this is way wrong. :)

Gears vs CoD4.. right now? CoD4. If CoD4 was released last year? Gears.
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transcience | Posted 1/11/2008 11:52:12 AM | message detail
Gears had the advantage of being against two different kinds of games last year - COD4 is sharing this poll with Halo. you have to figure that most of those Halo votes would go to COD4, not Galaxy.. though it may not be an overwhelming amount, it'd certainly be enough to beat Gears, which seems kinda left behind now that the real multiplayer games are out.
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 1/11/2008 11:56:59 AM | message detail
Call of Duty 4 is the true sequel to Call of Duty 2 by Infinity Ward (I read that Infinity Ward even has the executable named cod3.exe or something of that sort. They deny CoD3's existence).

Call of Duty 3 is absolute trash along with those crappy console Call of Duty games made by Treyarch and the like. Apparently Call of Duty 5 is going to be made by Treyarch and will be set in WWII again. Ugh I wish Activision would just leave the series to Infinity Ward, all of these other developers are giving the series a bad rep but Activision wants to make money so they will keep pumping out yearly sequels.

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MnMZero | Posted 1/11/2008 12:36:24 PM | message detail
I think Infinity Ward had done a good job of letting the gaming community know about the difference between their Call of Duty games and CoD games made by other developers. Hell, the end game song of Call of Duty 4 was a rap about how much Infinity Ward kicks ass. The review community has put an emphasis on that as well. I think gamers will be hip to Call of Duty 5 not being a IW game.
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Gaddswell | Posted 1/11/2008 9:01:15 PM | message detail
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 44.44% 4
Halo 3 22.22% 2
Super Mario Galaxy 33.33% 3
TOTAL VOTES 9

Close start.
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ZFS | Posted 1/11/2008 9:02:08 PM | message detail
Blah.

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Master Moltar | Posted 1/11/2008 9:02:46 PM | message detail
GALAXY FUEL
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__Mega64__ | Posted 1/11/2008 9:11:36 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm liking how this is turning out.
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Janus5000 | Posted 1/11/2008 11:01:47 PM | message detail
CoD4 is making Halo 3 look like... BioShock.
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Haste_2 | Posted 1/12/2008 12:20:15 AM | message detail
So apparently GH3 and Bioshock are a force to be reckoned with, after all.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 1/12/2008 12:22:12 AM | message detail
this poll rawks
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2008 12:27:40 AM | message detail
1) Ha, a Halo 3/Bioshock/Orange Box three-way poll would have been a lot of fun in hindsight!

2) There's a very realistic chance that Guitar Hero 3 > Halo 3 here...though, given the music-rhythm genre, it's hard to say confidently in a one-on-one setting. If it's not handi-capped in such a setting and Rock Band hurt it much, then that would be an upset I'd be interested in!

3) How do you think a SMG/CoD4 match would go percentage-wise?
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ZFS | Posted 1/12/2008 12:30:09 AM | message detail
I really doubt it. Ignoring anything that would change from a GotY style poll over to a contest setting, Halo should end up a percent or so above 20% by the end of the poll. I wouldn't be all that sure that GH3, Bioshock, or any other big game this year would get that if you put them in this poll. There's no real way to prove that, so it's probably not worth arguing, but yeah.

I'm not sure I'd take a whole lot away from these GotY polls when it comes to talking about what can hang with what in a more contest-oriented environment.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 1/12/2008 12:43:05 AM | message detail
Game of the Year polls hold very little water in a contest setting. We all saw how badly the GTA series performed in a contest after performing wonderfully in GotY polls, for example. As for the most startling example, we need only remember that FFX doubled SSBM in 2001 and then lost in that memorable 2004 match. In terms of percentage, that's a bigger turnaround than Call of Duty 4 beating Mario Galaxy in a 2010 games contest.
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swirIdude | Posted 1/12/2008 9:30:28 AM | message detail
I don't think Galaxy has to worry about CoD4 beating it in a contest match at any point in time!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 1/12/2008 9:37:33 AM | message detail
VC did perform pretty impressively against SSBM, though.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2008 10:54:08 AM | message detail
For what it's worth, the Gamecube was out for less than two months at the time of that poll, and so was Halo. There was a reason why FFX and GTA3 blew everybody out and MGS2 was right behind SSBM, and I think that year's head-start for the PS2 worked very well for it here.

LoZ:TP isn't a viable counter-argument, by the way, since it was on both the Wii and Gamecube.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2008 11:06:09 AM | message detail
Also, about GTA's series-performance...though it's obviously a series, I don't think people think of it as a series like others. Most people haven't played GTA1 or GTA2...and how many big series do you know of where the big majority of people didn't get into their first two games? Then GTA3 got huge, as did GTA:VC and GTA:SA...and, considering how vastly different their worlds are (er, cities, or whatever), I could see that losing some fans. Also, it goes from being a numbered series to getting subtitles after it got popular...not that people believed GTA:VC or GTA:SA were spin-offs, but that's a lack of continuity there.

It still blows my mind it lost to WC or even had it be a close match (I still don't think there was any reasonable sign for it either before or after the fact outside of rallying, but surely they didn't rally THAT much.....), and the games themselves are definitely popular. Perhaps people just don't think of it as a series.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/12/2008 12:23:37 PM | message detail
and how many big series do you know of where the big majority of people didn't get into their first two games?

Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, and Metroid are three pretty big series where the first two games are mostly neglected.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2008 1:58:01 PM | message detail
I knew Metal Gear would come up, ha, so touche on that one...but I'd still say MG1 in its day was bigger than GTA1 in its day. Practically a mute point though.

Final Fantasy has had many more games than GTA though, including one that has been arguably THE foundation of GameFAQs for over ten years...couple that with the popularity of the series from FF3/6 and onward, and FF is a big enough series that having no games pre-FF3/6 wouldn't have hurt it too much...and even all the FF spin-offs not called FFT. Also, to be fair, the first FF was big for its time. It's what kept Square alive, afterall. Also, a poll from last year says ~58.5% of the site's played FF1 before -- a number GTA:SA may hit, but probably no other. GTA can't say GTA1 or GTA2 were big in probably any capacity, and it has no game that is a foundation of GameFAQs. GTA:SA is probably a pillar built upon the foundation, to be fair, although it's likely alongside at least two other FF-pillars.

I don't think Metroid's first game is insignificant in comparison to how it stands to the rest of the games in its series. I'd wager that Metroid's first game would hold up better in a Metroid-series poll nowadays than FF's first in a FF-series poll, though head-to-head FF would beat Metroid cleanly. Also, again, it was big in its time, plus Metroid did ~4% against SMB3 in an SFF-battle than Metal Gear did against SMB3 so I certainly don't think it's fair to group Metroid with MG in this regard.


It's also worth nothing all three series you mentioned came in during the NES-age (or even older for MG, I think). GTA came in somewhat-obscurely in the PS1-age then only blew up this past generation. So, on top of the handi-cap of being a series that was only really popular last generation, you can throw in that the environments of each major GTA game is very very different and that the title's subtitles subtly (lovin' those past three words together...weird) make the games seem even less connected to each other. The series has minimal traditions, so many various ways to play instead of a single distinct one, no mascot...

...gamers are plenty smart enough to understand it's a series, but I can see gamers not respecting it as a series to a degree, even if they love the games. Plus, you know, the anti-votes from dissenters.....



This is all hypothesis-talk though, of course.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/12/2008 2:11:58 PM | message detail
Newer series definitely did struggle in the series contest, so maybe nostalgia and tradition plays a bigger role than we thought. And you're right that GTA doesn't have much of either. Makes me want to see a mixed division games contest even more...
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swirIdude | Posted 1/12/2008 2:19:10 PM | message detail
If there's a game contest at the end of 2008, where does GTAIV stand?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 1/12/2008 4:14:39 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, the Gamecube was out for less than two months at the time of that poll, and so was Halo.

It was in SpC2k4, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

I knew Metal Gear would come up, ha, so touche on that one...but I'd still say MG1 in its day was bigger than GTA1 in its day. Practically a mute point though.

Nah, the first two GTAs were both million-sellers.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/12/2008 4:17:10 PM | message detail
No no, he means the '01 GotY poll.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 1/12/2008 4:19:11 PM | message detail
Oh, I thought he was responding to my post.
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transcience | Posted 1/12/2008 4:20:05 PM | message detail
grr cod4
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