GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 547
| smitelf | Posted 11/13/2007 12:43:24 PM | message detail |
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Also, according to the '06 x-stats, Dante would get 57.71% on Luigi. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! "I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris |
| thekitchensink | Posted 11/13/2007 12:45:12 PM | message detail |
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What was the maximum points possible this year? 768? --- - TKS - FC2K7: 300/512 "I would only give my life for my country if I had to to survive." |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/13/2007 1:12:53 PM | message detail |
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There were 128 points possible each round, so 128 x 6 = 768 max points. Eh, the '06 comparision isn't entirely fair, since Yoshi got to roll out a cool sprite against Solid @#*$ while Luigi was put in a bad situation against Sonic. Let's compare using the '04 numbers, which are based on the direct matchup Yoshi and Luigi had. Playing against that year's Dante they'd get... Dante (2004c raw) VS Yoshi (2004c raw) Dante wins with 64.18% of the vote! A win of 23,897 with 84,273 total votes cast. Dante (2004c raw) VS Luigi (2004c raw) Dante wins with 67.38% of the vote! A win of 27,089 with 77,930 total votes cast. Yeah, Yoshi's a bit stronger, but some of that 6% gap was pretty clearly created by Pika's presence, it seems to me. --- PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content. ...because he just owned me in the Guru! |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/13/2007 1:18:52 PM | message detail |
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No way Dante does that good on Luigi 1v1 after seeing Dante/Yoshi. I seriously doubt there's a lot of people who are going Yoshi > Dante > Luigi, at least not enough to make it that much in Dante's favor. Yoshi is inflated in '06 stats, and Sonic if anything is underrated, though I personally think he's fine. Either way, I'm pretty convinced that kind of beat down isn't happening 1v1, though that doesn't mean there had to be Luigi/Pika LFF, he could just be flat out weaker in this format, Dante stronger, or other things. Granted Luigi/Pika seems most reasonable. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/13/2007 1:23:47 PM | message detail |
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I figure Dante/Luigi will be at least a toss-up, and next year, I'd go
with the mean green. Dante will have DMC4, sure, but Luigi will have
more exposure on a more popular console. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest! |
| smitelf | Posted 11/13/2007 1:33:12 PM | message detail |
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Eh, the '06 comparision isn't entirely fair, since Yoshi got to roll
out a cool sprite against Solid @#*$ while Luigi was put in a bad
situation against Sonic. I'll freely admit that the difference between them is not as large as '06 indicates, but both '06 and this year's match indicate a significant difference. How many excuses can we make for Luigi? Let's compare using the '04 numbers, which are based on the direct matchup Yoshi and Luigi had. Let's not, since I've learned from painful experience to treat all stats pre-05 as garbage. I seriously doubt there's a lot of people who are going Yoshi > Dante > Luigi, at least not enough to make it that much in Dante's favor. I agree that it wouldn't be as much in Dante's favor as '06 indicates, but it would be enough in his favor to make the difference this year look pretty negligible given all the other factors involved in 4-way matches. Either way, I'm pretty convinced that kind of beat down isn't happening 1v1, though that doesn't mean there had to be Luigi/Pika LFF, he could just be flat out weaker in this format, Dante stronger, or other things. Granted Luigi/Pika seems most reasonable. Why? Yet again I'm wondering why people see this given Pikachu's solid performance in that match, which seems to get glossed over in all these LFF arguments. I figure Dante/Luigi will be at least a toss-up, and next year, I'd go with the mean green. I'd go with Dante without a moment's thought. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! "I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/13/2007 2:22:02 PM | message detail |
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Random thought: You know what? I don't think Scorpion suffered much of
this 4th place factor... Samus didn't just suffer LFF in Round 3, but
also Round 2 with Midna's presence. Luigi and Ganondorf - yay Luigi and Pikachu - nay... Dante just seems really strong in this format. See his match against Leon the previous round. Leon Kennedy and Dante - yay... however, it definitely does NOT wholly explain Pikachu's success. I think Pikachu's picture was an even bigger factor. Crono and Vincent - nay... based on Morgoth's math, anyway. After seeing (Aprosenf's?) 1-vs.1 x-stat formula working satisfactorily directly with 4-way matches... I would like to lean on that, in which case there would be slight LFF here. Of course, it's easier to go with the flow. Squall and Sora - nay Axel and Frog - nay Pikachu with Vivi/Tidus - I'd better say nay. Duke Nukem and Gordon - hrm.... nay. Gordon's too close to Subby as is. :x Mega Man and Ryu - so tempting... I mean, if Dante and Leon can hurt each other, why not MM and Ryu? They're comparable in many ways. Yoshi and Knuckles - nope. Rikku's score seemed appropriate in relation to Yoshi to me, and likewise Yoshi in relation to Mega Man... --- "Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think." |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2007 3:39:34 PM | message detail |
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Luigi and Ganondorf- yay Luigi and Pikachu- yay Leon Kennedy and Dante- yay Crono and Vincent- nay, but I think some Link/Crono LFF is possible. Squall and Sora- yay Axel and Frog- nay Pikachu with Vivi/Tidus- nay Duke Nukem and Gordon- nay Mega Man and Ryu- nay Yoshi and Knuckles- yay --- My bracket was utterly destroyed by Explicit Content, the Guru Champ. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2007 3:41:31 PM | message detail |
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I'm assuming offseason means 450 post mode again? Sweet. ~*ST*~ --- L-Block > Explicit Content > Me ; congrats EC! Now Playing: FF12, PW3, FFT: WotL, Etrian Odyssey |
| swirIdude | Posted 11/15/2007 12:40:43 PM | message detail |
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This topic may need purge protection very soon. So, where do you think Super Mario Galaxy ultimately lands in the Mario series chain of popularity? --- I got L-Blocked into a corner by Explicit Content. National Shoddy Battle League: 2-1 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/15/2007 12:49:40 PM | message detail |
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Mario is probably the toughest series to predict popularity with.
Trying to set up a pecking order for Mario's current games seems way
harder than for Zelda or Final Fantasy. World/64 is a complete toss-up
in my eyes, 2 and Sunshine are complete question marks, the original
has an absolutely massive range, and I'm not even sure if SMB3 is
guaranteed to pull off direct wins over World or 64, although it is
indirectly the stronger game. Galaxy... well, it's definitely stronger than 2 and Sunshine. The critical response thus far is better than what even the most hardcore Nintendo fans were expecting from Twilight Princess, but sales volume (or lack thereof), will probably keep it below the SMB3/World/64 tier. |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2007 12:51:56 PM | message detail |
| I'd put it a good bit behind Mario 64, which would
put it about fourth or so. SMB might push it back a bit if it ended up
being fairly strong. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/15/2007 1:01:01 PM | message detail |
| With regards to off-season topics, unless things start picking up, I think we should hold off making new ones until the current topic is nearly closed. If we make them at 450, I can easily see some purges giving us the pwn. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2007 1:03:28 PM | message detail |
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3851 7.12% Super Mario Bros. 276 0.51% Super Mario Bros. 2 (Japan) 2104 3.89% Super Mario Bros. 2 (US) 15748 29.12% Super Mario Bros. 3 1041 1.92% Super Mario Land 393 0.73% Super Mario Land 2 11283 20.86% Super Mario World 2789 5.16% Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 9616 17.78% Super Mario 64 6983 12.91% Super Mario Sunshine The '02 poll. SMW beat SM64 here. However, note that it seems that when SMS dropped in '03, most of those votes went to SM64. Yoshi's Island did beat SMB2 here, but not the next year... probably because "Super Mario World 2" was a confusing name in the '03 poll. '03 poll here. 3645 6.56% Super Mario Bros. 483 0.87% Super Mario Bros. Lost Levels 2500 4.50% Super Mario Bros. 2 16880 30.38% Super Mario Bros. 3 1151 2.07% Super Mario Land 451 0.81% Super Mario Land 2 11012 19.82% Super Mario World 1929 3.47% Super Mario World 2 12164 21.89% Super Mario 64 5345 9.62% Super Mario Sunshine It tooks like SMB3 > SM64 > SMW here... but I wouldn't take SMS over SMB. I find it disturbing that SMB2 is higher than SMW2:YI, though. Funny how SMW lost a bit of ground on SMB3, though. --- "Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think." |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/15/2007 1:06:46 PM | message detail |
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I'd go crazy if Galaxy was on the 64/SMW/SMB3 tier. That'd be excellent. I honestly think it deserves it. --- GSB International Champion WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2007 1:11:51 PM | message detail |
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Well, if Zelda:WW could supposedly compete with SMW, I don't see why SMG couldn't. --- "Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think." |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2007 1:16:29 PM | message detail |
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I'd be surprised if it could. I would need to see something to show me
that this place cares about the game on that sort of level. Judging by
the impressions, it seems like a solid game, but not quite enough to be
hanging up there. Then again, maybe I haven't been paying attention! --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2007 1:22:37 PM | message detail |
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I think a lot of it depends on how well SMG sells. It's currently
behind Sunshine in Japan, and if that happens here, it doesn't stand
much of a chance of being a beast. --- I got surprise sex'd by a Gyrating Grandma in the Guru Contest. |
| swirIdude | Posted 11/15/2007 1:23:50 PM | message detail |
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It's currently behind Sunshine in Japan ...How? --- I got L-Blocked into a corner by Explicit Content. National Shoddy Battle League: 2-1 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/15/2007 1:24:08 PM | message detail |
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Sales will probably pick up like crazy once the Holiday season draws a little closer. From my personal experiance, I had to go to three different Toys R Us stores before finding a copy of it the day it came out. --- GSB International Champion WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2007 1:24:18 PM | message detail |
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Japan doesn't do games anymore. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/15/2007 1:24:54 PM | message detail |
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Apparently SMG isn't anti-paint enough for their tastes. --- Explicit Content tapped my ass faster than Morse code during the Guru Challenge... ...and his score is the only thing higher than he is. |
| swirIdude | Posted 11/15/2007 1:26:32 PM | message detail |
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Japan doesn't do games anymore. Then I suggest that Miyamoto and company are imported to the United States to continue their work! --- I got L-Blocked into a corner by Explicit Content. National Shoddy Battle League: 2-1 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2007 1:28:29 PM | message detail |
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Japan doesn't do games anymore NSMB was bigger than SMW and SM64 there, so I'd have to disagree. --- I got surprise sex'd by a Gyrating Grandma in the Guru Contest. |
| swirIdude | Posted 11/15/2007 1:29:39 PM | message detail |
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NSMB did well because the DS is a religion. --- I got L-Blocked into a corner by Explicit Content. National Shoddy Battle League: 2-1 |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/15/2007 1:43:21 PM | message detail |
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HM forgot to mention the "console" part. >_> --- Watch out, 'cause now I'm back! ...I'm still Warsola/War13104. I repeat, I'm not ExTha. I'm as much ExTha as the above poster. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/15/2007 1:47:20 PM | message detail |
| Sales numbers are important, sure, but I don't think they're critical to a game's popularity on a hardcore gaming site. Even assuming Galaxy sells less than Sunshine, it will still be much stronger if everyone who plays it loves it. Judging by critical and popular opinion so far, that's looking much more likely to happen with Galaxy than Sunshine. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2007 3:08:21 PM | message detail |
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Even assuming Galaxy sells less than Sunshine, it will still be much stronger if everyone who plays it loves it. Oh, I definitely agree. I just think that if it sells worse than Sunshine, it won't be able to come close to SMW/SM64. --- I got surprise sex'd by a Gyrating Grandma in the Guru Contest. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/15/2007 5:32:04 PM | message detail |
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If they all made a Game Contest next Spring, I'd put their indirect strength at Mario 3 (pretty wide margin) Mario 64 (but hardly any gap to) Mario World (again, very little gap to) Mario Galaxy (decent ways ahead of) Mario 1 Mario 2 (basically tied with) Mario Sunshine Yoshi's Island (all close here) NSMB (and a gap to) Mario Land Sunshine would have been a good two rungs higher on the ladder in '04 I'd bet, but it's been so outclassed and outhyped by Galaxy now that I think it's quickly being forgotten. --- PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content. ...because he just owned me in the Guru! |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 11/15/2007 8:10:21 PM | message detail |
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I like those rankings, but I doubt it'll matter past Galaxy. --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/15/2007 10:46:31 PM | message detail |
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Nah, SMB1 is beating SMG. It's right up there with SMB3 as the most
played Mario game here, it managed to barely beat SMW in to Top 100
List two years ago, and it's got the added touch of revolutionizing the
gaming industry. We already knew practically everybody's played it
before, but it's also got a firmer fanbase than we give credit for and
arguably more respect than any other game PERIOD (which, while not
mattering so much in normal matches, I think this would be a factor
against another Mario game). If it wasn't for its superior SMB3 being
in the Mario-polls, SMB1 would be duking it out with SMW and SM64
(though I'm with the assumed-majority thinking SM64 > SMW >
SMB1). SMG's not beating that, barring amazing sales + SM64-like
quality or better + some time for it to settle in. --- Explicit Content tapped my ass faster than Morse code during the Guru Challenge... ...and his score is the only thing higher than he is. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/15/2007 10:49:53 PM | message detail |
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It would be fun to see the original Super Mario Brothers go up against
FFVII in the second or third round. The biggest overperformance since
Mario/Cloud, folks. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/15/2007 10:57:57 PM | message detail |
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Ha, I wish we would see Tetris/FF7...er, at least have had this match the day after this past contest's championship! --- Explicit Content tapped my ass faster than Morse code during the Guru Challenge... ...and his score is the only thing higher than he is. |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2007 11:02:16 PM | message detail |
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I hope no one believes any of those would result in anything other than
a FF7 beat down. No need to start overrating the importance of how
played a game is! --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/15/2007 11:11:02 PM | message detail |
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SMB won't win, but it will overperform. It will also win the first hour, which will be sssssweet to watch. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest! |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2007 11:19:05 PM | message detail |
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I'm not sure what the reason would be for an overperformance there.
Simply because a game is widely played doesn't mean people will
actually vote for it against a juggernaut like Final Fantasy 7, or be
more inclined to vote for it than normal. SMB wouldn't barely slip by
any random game and then put up 45% on FF7 or anything. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/15/2007 11:31:44 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Super Mario Bros. would be merely slipping by random
games. In the video game world, Super Mario Bros. is the box that holds
the magical cloth that all other games are sewn from. You know that,
Heroic Mario! --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest! |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2007 11:37:28 PM | message detail |
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curse the plumber --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 11/16/2007 12:47:04 PM | message detail |
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How long does it take to get prize money for contests usually? I'm
trying to figure out whether I should spend my money on games I want
now, or wait until I get it. Most people will probably just say buy
what you want now, and then just buy new games with the prize money
once I get it, but I rarely really buy games anymore... last game I
bought was Halo 3, and before that... uh.... Shadowrun. That was in
April. Now however, I want to get 4 different games (Galaxy, AC, Mass
Effect, CoD 4), but my want for games is probably going to start
running dry again after this mega batch. --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| Lopen | Posted 11/16/2007 12:48:45 PM | message detail |
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I was wondering the same thing. I want an X-Box 360 nowwwww. --- Explicit Content: Shaped like a GAME FUEL to kick my ass! |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/16/2007 12:52:50 PM | message detail |
| Bacon might be quick to give you guys your rewards (congrats, btw =).), but CJayC had a sick habit of making people writhe and beg and turn tricks for our prizes. The Villains Contest winners had to wait months. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/16/2007 9:12:52 PM | message detail |
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Regarding today's poll (probably the next two days, too): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1090 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1089 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1088 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=716 A year in, the XBox was owned by a touch under 25% of the site, the Cube had surpassed the halfway mark to get over 52% of users, and, two years from launch, the PS2 was owned by more than 72%. PS2 was at 55% after one year. --- Mustache...and green...Only Explicit Content is more badass than Luigi! www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2007 10:29:15 PM | message detail |
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I agree with Harrich and Yo. SMB is one of the most played games ever,
it would be a beast in a games contest. It would have no problem
trouncing weak obscure games with 90%. After all, we all saw what ? block did to L-Block, and L-Block beat Link! :) And honestly I think that's actually not too far from representative of their 1-on-1 strength (for L and ?), even though L probably suffered some from backlash. And ? block gets its strength mostly from SMB1. I'm not sure if Legend of Zelda is stronger than SMB...my guess is they're probably pretty close. Both LoZ and SMB1 would brush off most modern era hits with minimal effort. Honestly, I'd have a hard time picking between Mario 64/SMW and SMB. Wouldn't be at all surprise to see an "upset" there (and I wouldn't even be surprised if SMB was the favorite among all brackets). Galaxy is not beating SMB1, though with the raving reviews it's getting it should be stronger than Sunshine ever was. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/16/2007 10:33:40 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, SMB1's range is scarily vast. At worst, it's a strong competitor.
At best, it thrashes nearly everything under the sun and holds
formidable SFF power. In terms of actual player percentage, I'm sure
there are games (Tetris springs to mind here) that rival it, but only
one game is almost universally known as the game that saved the
industry, and that game is Super Mario Bros. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest! |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/16/2007 10:35:14 PM | message detail |
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I don't think SMB's range is that large. I would surprised if it wasn't around SMW's level. --- "Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think." |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/16/2007 10:37:37 PM | message detail |
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Good enough for me! SMW is plenty strong. =) --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest! |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2007 10:38:13 PM | message detail |
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And ? block gets its strength mostly from SMB1. I should say, mostly from SMB1 and SMB3. Though I think SMB1 has the greater share there. Yeah, SMB1's range is scarily vast. At worst, it's a strong competitor. At best, it thrashes nearly everything under the sun Actually I don't think it's range is all that vast. IMO I think at worst it's a bit below LoZ, and at best it's a bit below SMB3. Throw in that LoZ is probably closer indirectly to SMB3 than their match indicated, and that's not a very wide range. (now certainly those matches are ancient and not too reliable, but I don't think a LoZ/SMB3 match would go all that differently today; NES era games probably fluctuate less in year to year strength than modern era games anyway) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2007 10:41:19 PM | message detail |
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And speaking of year to year fluctuations, I wouldn't be surprised if SMB3 was closer to FF7 than it was back in 2K4. So I could definitely see some funkiness in a FF7 vs. SMB1 match. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| ZFS | Posted 11/16/2007 10:42:07 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't deny that the game would be strong, or at least have the
potential to be strong, but there is a difference between having
strength and overperforming when there is little reason to do so.
SMB3's player percentage is well over 90% if a previous poll is to be
believed -- and that helped it very little against Chrono Trigger. A high playability peracentage will help you against games that are more obscure, or not as widespread, as mentioned; it will do little against a game that is beloved, regardless of how many people have played it. SMB isn't beating a Mario 3 or Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy 6 or Final Fantasy 7 or anything that people hold in much higher regard. You would be hard pressed to find people who consider SMB1 among their favorite games. There's a reason for that. Its 'influence' shouldn't be held in higher regard in this contest than any other 'influential' game -- people don't vote based on such nonsense, and rightfully so! --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale." |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/17/2007 3:55:43 PM | message detail |
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I agree that all sorts of weird things could happen in a direct Mario 1
v SMW/Mario 64/Galaxy poll, but that's why my rankings above were based
on indirect strength. Yeah, with the incredible playrate and massive
respect that gamers have for Mario 1, it's going to be an absolute
beast when matched up against anything without a huge fanbase. But I've
got to agree with HM here- big playrate and respect have nothing on love.
And when you move up to competition that people love, that tops a ton
of people's Favorite Games listings, like Chrono Trigger or Mario 3 or
LttP or any of the other Elites, all that "eh well at least I've PLAYED
that game" votes are going to evaporate. And that's why I'd still take at the very least Mario 64 over Mario 1 indirectly; it gets revolutionary/importance respect, has a very good playrate of its own, and is ALSO legitimately loved and legitimately placed near the top of people's Top Ten favorites, all of which is going to have it holding up much better when the strong competition rolls in. And I'd argue that SMW isn't far behind in that respect, and that if you give it a few more months, Galaxy's going to have crept up into plenty of people's Top Tens as well. --- PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content. ...because he just owned me in the Guru! |
