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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 547

PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/8/2007 8:14:33 PM | message detail
There is absolutely no chance in hell Bioshock beats out Halo 3.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
trannyscience | Posted 11/8/2007 8:21:45 PM | message detail
after seeing Pokemon in this format, I have a hard time seeing it flop. same for Zelda given franchise voting.

why am I analyzing this
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immerse your soul in love
HaRRicH | Posted 11/8/2007 8:43:15 PM | message detail
Yeah -- on the Xbox systems, you don't fight with Halo on the FPS-field...or arguably the Xbox-fields OR the FPS-field in general. Bioshock, CoD2, PD0...all of those would likely get embarrassed against a Halo game here, and even Gears of War wouldn't come out looking pretty.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=773
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1873
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2591
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2646
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2749
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2812

Just saying, I don't think any of the above Xbox games other than Halo would have done those numbers...and let's not forget how big of an event Halo 3's release was this year. It was even bigger than Halo 2! Throw in that MC looked better than ever this year, and I cannot see anything even coming close to beating Halo 3 this year.
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Explicit Content tapped my ass faster than Morse code during the Guru Challenge...
...and his score is the only thing higher than he is.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/8/2007 8:51:27 PM | message detail
That's fine, but one of them won't be in the first GotY-poll. Then, from there:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2253

Minish Cap couldn't hold up well in a GotY-poll with Mario Kart DS being its main Nintendo competition and Resident Evil 4 being the only powerhouse-name in the poll. If LoZ:PH beats Pokemon D/P, THEN it gets to face two powerhouse-names in SMG and Halo 3...and GoW2 could very well be stronger than GoW, too. I figure PH > MC, but I don't see it holding up well enough.
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Explicit Content tapped my ass faster than Morse code during the Guru Challenge...
...and his score is the only thing higher than he is.
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/9/2007 5:38:51 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/9/2007 5:39:02 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about Gamefaqs because Halo 3 will obviously destroy Bioshock in a poll here.
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Go Ducks Go!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/9/2007 6:21:02 PM | message detail
Well then we don't care.

Oh and it's not happening.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/9/2007 8:37:06 PM | message detail
Low vote totals and lack of interest aside, has a non-Contest poll ever finished with less than a 10 vote margin, as today's is attempting?

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PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content.
...because he just owned me in the Guru!
Big Bob | Posted 11/9/2007 8:40:10 PM | message detail
That Cloud/Sonic one might have...though it was probably a bit bigger than that.
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Rawr Explicit Content.
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/9/2007 9:15:49 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/9/2007 9:16:29 PM | message detail
Unreal Tournament 3 made the comeback and won by 7 votes!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2930

...yea I miss contest time.
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Go Ducks Go!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/9/2007 9:20:27 PM | message detail
**** yeah, go UT3.
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I got surprise sex'd by a Gyrating Grandma in the Guru Contest.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/10/2007 12:11:53 AM | message detail
Low vote totals and lack of interest aside, has a non-Contest poll ever finished with less than a 10 vote margin, as today's is attempting?

We had a tie in the 2nd poll:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2

Here's a more recent tie:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2805
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Explicit Content pwnd me in the Character Battle VI Guru Contest!
Nominate Altair from Assassin's Creed in the next contest!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2007 12:52:02 PM | message detail
:( I miss the contest
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GSB International Champion
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
swirIdude | Posted 11/10/2007 1:19:26 PM | message detail
In two days, this topic will be a ghost town, as everyone plays the greatest game ever, Super Mario Galaxy.
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I got L-Blocked into a corner by Explicit Content.
National Shoddy Battle League: 2-1
charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2007 1:44:52 PM | message detail
I probably won't get SMG until Christmas.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Congratulation to Explicit Content for winning the guru contest Points: 429/768
smitelf | Posted 11/11/2007 1:33:47 PM | message detail
In nine days, this topic will be a ghost town, as everyone plays the greatest game ever, Mass Effect.

Fixed.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
MastaHealer | Posted 11/11/2007 1:42:40 PM | message detail
Not even Bioware can touch EAD Tokyo's magic

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*wavey*
OMG, IT'S THE HIVEMIND!!!
smitelf | Posted 11/11/2007 1:44:30 PM | message detail
Not even EAD Tokyo can touch Bioware's magic

Fixed. Geez, you guys really need to start proofreading your posts; I won't always be here to fix your horrible mistakes ^_^
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
MastaHealer | Posted 11/11/2007 1:45:44 PM | message detail
Well enjoy the last good game Bioware makes before EA decides to crush the life out of them

^_^

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*wavey*
OMG, IT'S THE HIVEMIND!!!
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/11/2007 9:18:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, I might pick up SMG at midnight.

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PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content.
...because he just owned me in the Guru!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2007 9:23:58 PM | message detail
I thought SMG was delayed 'til the 14th.
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I got surprise sex'd by a Gyrating Grandma in the Guru Contest.
swirIdude | Posted 11/11/2007 9:24:44 PM | message detail
I thought SMG came out last month.
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I got L-Blocked into a corner by Explicit Content.
National Shoddy Battle League: 2-1
smitelf | Posted 11/12/2007 8:38:53 AM | message detail
Well enjoy the last good game Bioware makes before EA decides to crush the life out of them

^_^


I...know...

*sobs uncontrollably*
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
BeTheMan | Posted 11/12/2007 9:49:22 AM | message detail
Topic's dead, so...random mock 2k8 character bracket time! Past champions are out, and seeding really doesn't factor in to this, which means that some divisions are clearly much tougher than others - I think it makes for a more challenging bracket, even though some characters are wasted. There are a few matches where I just inserted <fodder>, because I couldn't think of anything worthwhile to do with the slots, and any character put there would lose.

Division 1

Solid Snake
CATS

Kefka
Frog

Leon Kennedy
Luigi

Master Chief
Zero

Division 2

Fox
Vivi

Riku
Ryu Hayabusa

Knuckles
Sub-Zero

Rikku
Mewtwo

Division 3

Sonic
<fodder>

Yuna
Kratos

Bowser
Tidus

Auron
<fodder>

Division 4

Dante
<fodder>

Yoshi
<fodder>

Tifa
<fodder>

Sora
Zelda

Division 5

Mega Man
<fodder>

Chun-Li
Donkey Kong

Big Boss
Tommy Vercetti

Vincent
<fodder>

Division 6

Crono
<fodder>

Amaterasu
Duke Nukem

Ganondorf
<fodder>

Squall
<fodder>

Division 7

Alucard
Liquid Snake

Seifer
Ness

Jill Valentine
Magus

Peach
Marcus Fenix

Division 8

Meta-Knight
Gordon Freeman

Ken Masters
Ramza Beoulve

Phoenix Wright
Kratos Aurion

L-Block
KOS-MOS
Haste_2 | Posted 11/12/2007 10:04:15 AM | message detail
Big wall of salt ahead.

I honestly never thought of this until now...take 4-characters that faced a common opponent, and pit them against each other. Let's say... CATS, Bowser, Sonic, and Link (all faced Cloud in 2K3). Calculate what each one's percentage purely based off their score against Cloud, and use no x-stats.

CATS - 13.09%
Bowser - 29.97%
Sonic - 33.79%
Link - 48.39%

Calculating is simple... set Cloud to, say, 50,000 votes.
Link = 48.39/(100-48.39) *50,000= 46,880 votes, which is of course 48.39% of the vote if you count both Cloud and Link's votes. But, let's add in the other characters....
Sonic = 25,517 votes.
Bowser = 21,398 votes.
CATS = 7,531 votes.
Total = 101,326 votes.

Take the percentages:
Link = 46.26%
Sonic = 25.18%
Bowser = 21.12%
CATS = 7.43%

Cool. The results actually make sense (setting aside SFF or if you think CATS would hold up better). Doing it backwards isn't hard.

Let's try King Morgoth's formula based on the x-stats (raw, against Cloud):
Link = 43.97%
Sonic = 25.53%
Bowser = 21.94%
CATS = 8.56%

Heck, why not compare it to linear x-stats calculations, too?
Link = 46.69%
Sonic = 25.06%
Bowser = 20.95%
CATS = 7.30%

To further test... let's change the proportions.

LInk - 40%
Sonic = 27.93%
Bowser - 24.77%
CATS = 10.82%

Link = 33,333
Sonic = 19,377
Bowser = 16,463
CATS = 6,066
Total = 75,239

Link = 44.30%
Sonic = 25.75%
Bowser = 21.88%
CATS = 8.06%

Did it fail? Yes, if creative's x-stats formula is foolproof.

Bowser vs. Yoshi - 56.24%
Cloud vs. Bowser - 70.03%
Cloud vs. Yoshi = (43.76/56.24)*(29.97/70.03)=.7781*.4280 = .3330... set .3330 = x/(1-x) and x = .25. So, it's 25% for Yoshi's expected score on Cloud.

Cloud - 50%
Bowser - 29.97%
Yoshi - 25.00%

Apply the same formula in the multi-match:

Cloud = 50,000 votes
Bowser = 21,398 votes
Yoshi = 16,667 votes

Yoshi gets 43.79% on Bowser... probably rounding errors in my calculations. Cool, I think it worked. Too bad that type of x-stat calculating doesn't seem to work for 1 vs. 1. It was fun thinking about it.

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"Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think."
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/12/2007 10:52:09 AM | message detail
Division 1
Solid Snake
Frog
Luigi
Master Chief

The first three matches are cake; Zero/Chief is kind of tough, but I'm giving Chief what I think is the credit he deserves after surpassing most expectations this year. Still, he won't beat Luigi, especially after Galaxy and Brawl.

Division 2
Vivi
Riku
Knuckles
Rikku

Ah, now this is more like it. Even after Brawl, Fox isn't at Vivi's level, Riku beats Hayabusa in a straight match, Knuckles has the casual appeal and lack of hate that make him the favorite against a guy like Subz (if he's in Brawl, complete mismatch), and Rikku takes what might be the strongest Pokemon. Vivi/Riku is a nice toss-up with possible SFF implications, so I'll give it to Riku because of fanboyism and the many KH games coming down the pike (if one launches before or during the contest, it'll help him out). Regardless, the division belongs to Knuckles in my eyes.

Division 3
Sonic
Kratos
Bowser
Auron

Only tough match here is Yuna/Kratos, and after God of War II goes Greatest Hits and sells a few more hundred thousand units (just like the original), I think Kratos will have it. I want to give the division to Auron, but Sonic, Brawl, etc.

Division 4
Dante
Yoshi!
Tifa
Zelda

I don't think DMC4 is big enough to give Dante the rematch, not when Yoshi gets Brawl (been mentioned in every division analysis so far, FEAR) and Dante gets no exposure on GameFAQs' most popular consoles at the moment (Wii, PS2, DS). Zelda should beat Sora to set up the epic showdown with Tifa. Once again, Brawl fear, and an SFF win over Yoshi.

Division 5
Mega Man
Donkey Kong
Big Boss
Vincent

The two tough matches are Boss/Vercetti and Mega Man/Vincent. If Boss gets a Naked Snake picture, it's end game, and even if he doesn't, Vercetti is pretty much fodder these days, so Boss could still definitely pull it off. Vinnie has a better shot at MM than Auron did at Sonic, but in the traditional format, I'll go with the Noble Nine until they fall.

Division 6
Crono
Duke Nukem
Ganondorf
Squall

What did I say about going with the N9 until they let me down? At this point, I think Squall is beefy enough to take out Ganondorf regardless of Brawl, and he's one of two characters (Vincent, obviously) that I'd take over Crono in 2008. Without so much as a Chrono Trigger Virtual Console release, Crono is in for another year of obscurity amidst an ever-changing voter pool, and just that could be enough to spell his doom.

Division 7
Alucard
Ness
Magus
Peach

Magus sucks now, but he still has enough in the tank to beat Jill, which is a shame because she's one of my favorites. Only Alucard and Magus have a chance, and this is also a shame because I don't think either of these guys deserve to win a division.

Division 8
Gordon Freeman
Ken Masters
Phoenix Wright
L-Block

Gordon/Meta-Knight is an excellent match, especially with The Orange Box being huge at the moment and Meta looking to be upper tier in Brawl. I'll give this one to Gordy. However, the big story here is L-Block. I hate the fact that you've set up an entire division (actually, TWO divisions) for it and are giving it three matches to once again build up strength. It was funny this year, but it's time to let the joke die. This nearly ruins the entire bracket, because if block wins this division, it ain't losing to Alucard/Magus.

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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest!
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/12/2007 10:52:34 AM | message detail
Solid Snake
Knuckles

For the fourth time, ladies and gentlemen! The board remembers contests from years ago on this day.

Sonic
Zelda

Sonic beats the Zelda/Tifa/Sora winner with little trouble.

Mega Man
Squall

Mega Man narrowly survives his second Square threat of the contest. This bracket was a true test of endurance for him.

Alucard
L-Block

Awful.

Solid Snake
Sonic

Business as usual in the upper half.

Mega Man
L-Block

At this point, L-Block will have amassed much of its strength that helped it win this year's contest, so it could actually win again. However, the fact that this format is tougher for it, coupled with the opinion that some people may start to get sick of the whole thing by now, gives Mega Man the win. Dear god, I hope it does. >_>

Solid Snake
Mega Man

The most deserving entrant wins it. All in all, not a bad effort, but I kind of expect user-made brackets to be a bit tougher across the board. Also, sorry if this sounds mean/blunt, but you set it up waaaaay too much for L-Block. L-Block/Master Chief in Round 1 (with the winner being fed to someone like Luigi, kinda like you already have) would be interesting. L-Block winning four matches would not be interesting, at least not for the people in here.

NOTE: It took me about ten minutes to find the damned censor bypass in this analysis (Yoshi vs. Tifa).

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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest!
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/12/2007 4:09:42 PM | message detail
To anyone who still questions whether cross-promotion from a big character battle (in this case especially intense promotion, thanks to Blocky) really matters in terms of increasing site traffic , I'd like to point out that we just drew 146,000 voters.

To a poll regarding eye color.

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PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content.
...because he just owned me in the Guru!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/12/2007 4:40:31 PM | message detail
And a couple days earlier, we had a poll fail to draw 64,000 votes.
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I got surprise sex'd by a Gyrating Grandma in the Guru Contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/12/2007 4:44:56 PM | message detail
Well, it was a poll that few GameFAQs regulars would have much of a reason to care about. Stuff like eye color and ALIENS are fun for the whole family.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... Explicit Content pwn me... in the Guru Contest!
creativename | Posted 11/12/2007 5:29:57 PM | message detail
Well I see some discussion about Assassin's Creed, and I'm seeing hype for that game everywhere. There's tons of commercials for it during football games and on Sportscenter. I hadn't really heard of it anywhere before the TV stuff. Must have a huge ad budget.

What's the name of the main character? Most likely he'd be weaker than Marcus Fenix at best, but he might not be as pathetic as one might think.

BTW, anybody else think we should have a mini 16- or 8-entrant GOTY tourney at the end of the year? No predictions contest needed, but a series of polls with a bracket.
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2007 5:33:34 PM | message detail
I mean a 1-on-1 GOTY tourney at the end of every year, not the standard multi-way poll.

Also I do think Mario Galaxy is going to be overlooked early at least, because the last real Mario game Sunshine, disappointed. For movies a film's opening weekend depends heavily on the reception of it's predecessor, and that should apply here too. If Galaxy does gets great WOM it should pick up later though - it's sales will probably have good legs, and not be as frontloaded as the standard big release.

I wonder if Assassin's Creed will sell more overall though. I have no idea what the sales expectations are for these games.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/12/2007 5:45:17 PM | message detail
Altair... he's my guru choice for character.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/12/2007 6:27:55 PM | message detail
That's a really cool idea creative. 16 games would take a whole half a month to get through though, and I have trouble seeing SB committing to that much time every year... 8 certainly seems doable.

I think the one problem is he probably doesn't want to throw out the other results completely, as in Best Wii Game of the Year and Best Multiplatform Game of the Year. So the way we'd have to do it is to set up a nomination system to find all those results, and then use the noms to determine which games get to earn a spot in the Elite Eight. So the 8 would be made up of like...

- Best of Wii
- Wii runner up
- Best of 360
- 360 runner up
- Best of PS3
- Best of PS2
- Best Handheld
- Best Multiplatform

Just have a form with those 6 categories and you input your choice for each, keep it open for a couple weeks, then use the games that fit into those slots for the Elite 8, re-sort them to avoid SFF, and BAM, could have a quick 7 day tourney ready to go. You could start it the day after Christmas and have it end right on January 1st. What timing!

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PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content.
...because he just owned me in the Guru!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/12/2007 6:41:33 PM | message detail
The one problem I have with it is that I don't really like the ideas of GotY's being in question IMMEDIATELY after Christmas. Give the people who are getting some of these blockbuster games as gifts a chance to play them, is all. Other than that...hey, I'm cool with it.
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Explicit Content tapped my ass faster than Morse code during the Guru Challenge...
...and his score is the only thing higher than he is.
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/12/2007 6:50:28 PM | message detail
Hm, you have a point HaR, and the GotY polls have always started on Jan 1. So I guess instead we should open nominations on the 24th or so, and start the first poll a few days after New Years or thereabouts.

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PARENTAL ADVISORY - This signature contains Explicit Content.
...because he just owned me in the Guru!
Haste_2 | Posted 11/12/2007 7:33:44 PM | message detail
To predict the first couple of rounds...

Solid Snake
CATS
Kefka
Frog... eep. Good match. I'll go with the one who's historically stronger, though.

Leon Kennedy
Luigi... Leon would've been tempting, but then Dante laid the smack down on him this past contest.
Master Chief
Zero...Zero beating MC would have to the lowest Round 1 prediction percentage EVER! =P I really am not sure who to pick there. Actually, MC should be the favorite by a touch with Halo 3, but Zero's among my favorites. I'm not fond of the Luigi/Zero re-match, but odds are it wouldn't happen, actually.

Division 2

Fox... Vivi has a good shot, of course. If Fox beats Vivi he probably beats Riku, too.
Vivi
Riku... Riku beats Hayabusa by more this time.
Ryu Hayabusa

Knuckles... yikes! I'll go with Knuckles over Subby... I have faith he's just worse in 4-way matches. And, he should beat Mewtwo, hopefully, too.
Sub-Zero
Rikku
Mewtwo... tough matches keep coming.

Division 3

Sonic
<fodder>
Yuna
Kratos... I'm not even hesitating here.

Bowser... hooray, and easy match! Watch Bowser lose....
Tidus
Auron... setup for Bowser/Auron? We all should know Auron wins that easily.
<fodder>

Division 4

Dante
<fodder>
Yoshi... can't go against Yoshi again, especially with the Wii out.
<fodder>

Tifa
<fodder>
Sora
Zelda... I'm quite confident in Zelda beating Sora... Sora's just not as his '06 level anymore. Tifa has a good shot, but I'll stick with Zelda...

Division 5

Mega Man... will be interesting to see if MM can SFF DK.
<fodder>
Chun-Li
Donkey Kong... easy victory for DK.

Big Boss...Whoa, this is weird. I would've taken Vercetti easily before SC2K7 happened...but BB looked way stronger than before while Vercetti looked horrible.
Tommy Vercetti
Vincent
<fodder>

Division 6

Crono
<fodder>
Amaterasu
Duke Nukem.. it really, REALLY pains me to see Duke beating Ammy... though Ammy has a shot.

Ganondorf
<fodder>
Squall...ooh, Squall/Ganondorf set-up. I wasn't entirely convinced of Squall's strength until this last contes.t
<fodder>

Division 7

Alucard
Liquid Snake...meh, if LS can tie Alucard in 4-way, he probably wins now. I hope I'm wrong.
Seifer... snub! Guess I'll go for the upset of Seifer winning this 4-pack.
Ness

Jill Valentine
Magus... I refuse to say Magus has stooped to where he'd lose to Jill... this is pretty close, I'll admit. Marcus is probably a little higher than Jill, but I refuse to believe Magus could lose that, either.
Peach
Marcus Fenix...eh, well, I'm not even sure if Peach would beat Kefka, so Marcus seems safer.

Division 8
Meta-Knight... if this happened and Gordon won, I'd eat my hat. With SSBB being out, MK also beating Ken is an easy decision.
Gordon Freeman
Ken Masters... easy choice for me.
Ramza Beoulve

Phoenix Wright
Kratos Aurion... I'm backing Phoenix all the way.
L-Block... ugh, L-Block. People will remember it's victory and will beat KOS-MOS comfortably. I seriously hate you for not giving it stiffer competition early on! Now it will gain momentum once AGAIN and possibly win it all! Screw L-Block, I'll pretend it doesn't exist, as it will screw up the entire contest, and have KOS-MOS move on!
KOS-MOS... whoa, KOS-MOS or Kratos? KOS-MOS just seems safer.

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"Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 11/12/2007 7:46:20 PM | message detail
Round 3/4

Solid Snake
Luigi
Fox
Knuckles... can't see Fox beating Knuckles anytime soon. Oh, joy... Snake/Knuckles revived!


Sonic... as cool as it would be to see Auron beat Sonic, it's not happening soon.
Auron
Yosh1
Zelda... good match. Zelda might be the favorite by an overwhelmingly undeserving amount.

Mega Man... MM convinced me of good strength again this last contest.
Vincent
Crono
Squall... upset! Oh, yeah.

Seifer
Magus... I can't say I'd take Magus over Seifer.
Meta-Knight...upset special? I'm sure the majority of brackets wouldn't have Seifer OR Meta Knight doing this well. =P
KOS-MOS

Round 5/6
Snake > Sonic... it should be a little closer, but no worries for Snake.
Mega Man > Meta Knight... hahaha. MK made it far.

Snake > Mega Man.

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"Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 11/12/2007 7:48:57 PM | message detail
That's a really great bracket. I refused to give L-Block any wins, though I guarantee he would at least make it to Mega Man... if not win the whole thing.

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"Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think."
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/13/2007 2:39:59 AM | message detail
I hate it when the stats topic gets so slow right after a contest :(
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GSB International Champion
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Haste_2 | Posted 11/13/2007 3:00:26 AM | message detail
It's mainly because there's no set of x-stats anyone cares about. =P

LFF (Fanbase Split): Yay or Nay? That is to, say, which of these had enough LFF to alter the results noticeably?
Luigi and Ganondorf
Luigi and Pikachu
Leon Kennedy and Dante
Crono and Vincent
Squall and Sora
Axel and Frog
Pikachu with Vivi/Tidus
Duke Nukem and Gordon
Mega Man and Ryu
Yoshi and Knuckles

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"Ah, a party! It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, it means EC has destroyed me in that Guru Contest!...I think."
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/13/2007 8:58:26 AM | message detail
Stats burnout. Give us a month or two, and we'll eventually get our lazy asses up and start pestering Bacon for a Games Contest.

As for today's poll, I expected the Wii/360/PS3 option to win, but I'm definitely surprised that it has over 50%. I wonder if other big gaming sites have regular visitors who seem to be as knowledgeable about the industry and its trends.
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/13/2007 11:03:22 AM | message detail
That's a very fine question Haste, and here's my very fine answer.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/LFF

Speaking of pestering SB, I'm going to send him our GotY 8-game tourney idea in a minute here.

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...because he just owned me in the Guru!
smitelf | Posted 11/13/2007 11:37:35 AM | message detail
Luigi and Ganondorf: yea
Hard to say; Mudkip's presence makes the results of their second round match hard to gauge, and Pig Ganon's collapse in the third round makes that suspect too. But all in all, the results seem to make a little more sense with some mild LFF than without.

Luigi and Pikachu: nay
An easy nay. The match results don't seem to indicate any overlap between them as far as I can tell.

Leon Kennedy and Dante: yea
Their third round makes absolutely no sense otherwise.

Crono and Vincent: nay
Oddly enough, the match results don't demonstrate any.

Squall and Sora: nay
My position on this one is well-documented in these topics already :)

Second round: If there was any Squall/Sora LFF evident in the second round, then the Aeris/Squall LFF was far too strong for it to be noticeable.

Third round: Squall performed excellently, finishing only 1.5% behind Sonic. This only goes to show how badly Aeris was LFFing Squall; surely, if Sora was indeed affecting Squall at all, then Squall would finish above Sonic in the next round?

Next round: Squall finished respectably behind Sonic, but still behind Sonic, which goes to show that Squall's third round performance was legit; he wasn't leeching from Sora and Sora wasn't leeching from him

So I give an emphatic nay to this one.

More later.
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smitelf | Posted 11/13/2007 12:22:59 PM | message detail
Axel and Frog: nay
I'm not even sure why you're asking about this one. Frog dropped, period. Nothing else seems to have happened here.

Pikachu with Vivi/Tidus: nay
Um, no. Your reason for asking about this one baffles me too.

Duke Nukem and Gordon: nay
I changed my mind three times on this one. I'll probably change it again after I post this. It's a very hard call.

Mega Man and Ryu: nay
Huh? I'd actually never considered this before, but it does explain a few things. I'm not convinced, though; there are other possible explanations, especially since the weaker characters usually did unexpectedly badly in these 4-way matches.

Yoshi and Knuckles: yea
It explains why Mega Man did so well and why Knuckles...didn't.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 11/13/2007 12:23:50 PM | message detail
No overlap between Luigi and Pikachu? So you'd pick Dante to beat Luigi with 55.13%, as those results indicate? Afraid I can't see that happening only a year after Yoshi beat him straight up, 50.55%.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/13/2007 12:24:11 PM | message detail
eh, I'm ready for another contest already. I definitely needed a break from the last one, but this week or so has been enough. Let's go!

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swirIdude | Posted 11/13/2007 12:39:30 PM | message detail
OKAY TOMORROW'S POLL WILL BE FFVII VS BIG RIGS!
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smitelf | Posted 11/13/2007 12:41:46 PM | message detail
No overlap between Luigi and Pikachu? So you'd pick Dante to beat Luigi with 55.13%, as those results indicate? Afraid I can't see that happening only a year after Yoshi beat him straight up, 50.55%.

Yoshi > Luigi by a significant amount, so I don't see how this compares. It was pretty clear going into the match that it would be Master Chief > Dante with or without Pikachu LFF. Another problem with the Luigi/Pikachu LFF theory is that Pikachu actually did pretty well in that match, given that he was the weakest character by a significant margin, and they tend to bomb in the 4-way format.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
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