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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 543

Seginustemple | Posted 11/2/2007 10:05:08 PM | message detail
Nominate stormtrooper THX 1138 for the fictional character battle!
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creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:06:13 PM | message detail
165K votes for the final? That sounds high actually.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 10:07:01 PM | message detail
Is the final going to last an extra hour though? Combined with how epic is potentially is, I wouldn't even discount 170,000!
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creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:08:28 PM | message detail
So does our new Lord finish with over or under 35% here?

Is the final going to last an extra hour though?

Oh yeah, I forgot about that.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:08:56 PM | message detail
That's the problem with the whole "remove the champions" shtick. The next champion is just as obvious as the removed champion. Only by removing all of the Noble Nine does the winner even begin to come into question, and even then it's probably Vincent. Take him out too and you're still looking at a pool of <5 people.

Wow, are you guys really this dense?

Seriously, this is the 7th character contests (counting villains). If all the NNers were removed once they won there would only be two left and guess what? Vincent beat Crono this year and L-Block beat Snake and Sonic.

Not only that, the champion wouldn't be so obvious. How many times has Snake gone up and down the ladder? Or Mega Man shown weakness then bounced back strong? Could Vincent upset one? Squall? How about Gannon, etc. etc. There would be variety and conflict. But I suppose tools would be more interested in seeing Link beat Cloud every year.


KB
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 10:10:21 PM | message detail
Well actually I kind of doubt they'd run the contest an hour longer. Doesn't seem fair
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This story is not an end yet.
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transience | Posted 11/2/2007 10:11:13 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2924&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

what
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xyzzy
"And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33
FFDragon | Posted 11/2/2007 10:11:49 PM | message detail
The question is, are you really dense enough to believe L beats Snake OR Sonic 1-on-1?
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
The revenge was swift and sweet (Metal Gear Solid 2)
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:12:53 PM | message detail
My god, I just worked out some scary-ass math with Morgoth's worksheet.

Assuming Link at 50% (obviously), Cloud at 46%, and Snake at 32% (weakest character failure), and assuming L-Block is completely independent of them, pegging L-Block at 25% puts him 2nd (Cloud gets 24.9%).

Pegging L-Block at 29.5% puts him ahead of Link (who gets 29.4%)

I just...what? Please someone tell me I made a mistake somewhere.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:13:36 PM | message detail
He has to finish with over 35%. After his start for the ages, he has to. I mean, heck, I predicted him at 31%. If he finishes under 35, it would seem disappointing after this.

Also, now that we've once again mentioned a fictional character contest (>_>), would anyone be interested in me posting my fictional character bracket for leisurely predictions? <_<
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:14:45 PM | message detail
The question is, are you really dense enough to believe L beats Snake OR Sonic 1-on-1?

*looks at todays poll*


L-Block has more votes than Snake and Chief... COMBINED.


The real question is, are you dense enough to believe he WOULDN'T Snake or Sonic 1 v 1.


KB
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:14:57 PM | message detail
Actually wait, I *did* make a mistake.
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Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:16:12 PM | message detail
I just realized L-Block got 135 votes in ONE SECOND!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:16:38 PM | message detail
If block/Snake or block/Sonic were held a month or two ago, done deal. If they were held now, hell if I know.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:16:55 PM | message detail
Alright, using those same assumptions, L-Block would need 26.6% to just edge out Cloud, and 29.4% to just edge out Link.

....damn
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paraboxx | Posted 11/2/2007 10:17:11 PM | message detail
Personally, I'd give L-Block a better chance against Link tomorrow than against Snake/Sonic 1-on-1.

Your whole diatribe back there is going to look pretty silly if L-Block does win, btw. Now there's some variety!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 10:18:36 PM | message detail
I guess it's worth something that in the face of L-Block domination, Master Chief looks like he'll be the only one to meet expectations.

Well, and Dante will probably meet the low expectations except those were probably assumed to be at the expense of last character failure or even SFF, which really, neither seems to be the case here
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Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Seginustemple | Posted 11/2/2007 10:18:55 PM | message detail
Do it blazer

and someone tell SBAllen about it <_<
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:19:03 PM | message detail
Personally, I'd give L-Block a better chance against Link tomorrow than against Snake/Sonic 1-on-1.

Well, I will tell you this much, I would rather see Snake vs L or Sonic vs. L in the finals, than Link beat Cloud... again... and again.... and again.


KB
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:19:08 PM | message detail
Our...*gasp* (only?!) hope is that L-Block is not independent and suffers a lot LFF, presumably from Link (we know Snake doesn't do squat to him, and I see now reason why Cloud would overlap with L).
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FFDragon | Posted 11/2/2007 10:19:23 PM | message detail
The real question is, are you dense enough to believe he WOULDN'T Snake or Sonic 1 v 1.

I'd bet my account on it. L is taking full advantage of both format and momentum right now. Next year if he were to appear in a regular contest setting, I don't believe he holds up at all. He'll get his 30% of course, but not much more.
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The revenge was swift and sweet (Metal Gear Solid 2)
Heroic Yuna | Posted 11/2/2007 10:19:58 PM | message detail
hey kb have you ever wondered why people don't like you
Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:20:15 PM | message detail
L-Block doesn't do SFF! He thinks its for sissies.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:20:18 PM | message detail
Yeah, it looks like Snake is suffering the most relative to our predictions, but seeing as how we all gave him the highest percentage, that's to be expected.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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ZhangJunyi | Posted 11/2/2007 10:20:57 PM | message detail
L-Block would barely make it past the second round in 1v1 format.

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Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:25:05 PM | message detail
hey kb have you ever wondered why people don't like you

I dont care if people like me or not. I am being completely honest. I am stunned people think it is more exciting to see Link beat Cloud (for like the 5th time now) than it would be to see Megaman vs. Sonic for the championship.


KB
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:25:35 PM | message detail
Take out L-Block, and this seems to be like the last match I think - roughly in line with expectations.

Chief is below expectations relative to Snake right now I think, but should finish at or just above them.

Dante is more below expectations, but he too should finish somewhat closer with his night vote. He'll disappoint relative to Snake by the end though. But, we knew there was a big chance of that.
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paraboxx | Posted 11/2/2007 10:25:55 PM | message detail
Enh...to me, handing out championships one by one to each member of the Noble Nine (and then each member of the tier below them, assuming the contest would last that long) is actually more boring than seeing Clinkeroth rack up wins.

After all, no matter how slim the chance is of somebody upsetting those three while they're in the poll...the chance drops to zero once they're out of it.

To each his own, I guess. *shrug*
Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:26:58 PM | message detail
And L reaches 5000 votes over Chief at an hour and 30 minutes in.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
transience | Posted 11/2/2007 10:27:56 PM | message detail
this is 800 votes ahead of our most voted match of the contest.
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xyzzy
"And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33
BesaidGuy | Posted 11/2/2007 10:29:05 PM | message detail
1.Kyle Bowen, if you remove the N9, Vincent wins, if you remove him, Squall/Ganondorf/Ryu wins.


WOW what great randomness and unpredictability! 3 characters to choose from!


2. 1 on 1 L Block loses 2nd round . As we have seen all contest, the 4 pack leads to random factors that no one can explain.


3.4pack games contest would be awesome. Chrono Trigger/FF7/Link to the Past/Ocarina of Time. Who wins.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:29:30 PM | message detail
I have a feeling tomorrow's votals will be off the charts.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:29:55 PM | message detail
After all, no matter how slim the chance is of somebody upsetting those three while they're in the poll...the chance drops to zero once they're out of it.

A battle royal or a small tournament for champions can be added. And when it gets big enough, there could be a Champions world cup every other year or in the Spring. There is enough creativity on this site to put something interesting together. Something new and fresh, like L-Block.


KB
paraboxx | Posted 11/2/2007 10:30:42 PM | message detail
Meanwhile, L-Block snags a 4000 vote lead on Solid Snake and a 5000 vote lead on Master Chief.

No surprises left in this contest, no sir !
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:31:23 PM | message detail
4pack games contest would be awesome. Chrono Trigger/FF7/Link to the Past/Ocarina of Time. Who wins.

I think we've had enough 4pack for now.

Back-to-back 4pack contests and people will get sick of it pretty quick.
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Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:32:30 PM | message detail
Wonder how tall L's lead will be before Snake starts to inevitably fight back?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:32:45 PM | message detail
Chrono Trigger/FF7/Link to the Past/Ocarina of Time. Who wins.


FF7 easily.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 10:33:24 PM | message detail
Wonder how tall L's lead will be before Snake starts to inevitably fight back?

There will be no fighting back today
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Because only you are in the infinity loop.
paraboxx | Posted 11/2/2007 10:34:28 PM | message detail
A battle royal or a small tournament for champions can be added.

I wasn't here when this happened just last year...but I've heard about it. The biggest excitement it generated seems to be from when Snake outlasted Sephiroth for third place (while Link and Cloud dominated once again).

And when it gets big enough, there could be a Champions world cup every other year or in the Spring.

...actually, I wouldn't mind seeing this.
Maybe like a round robin sort of thing.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:34:41 PM | message detail
1.Kyle Bowen, if you remove the N9, Vincent wins, if you remove him, Squall/Ganondorf/Ryu wins.


WOW what great randomness and unpredictability! 3 characters to choose from!


As a Squall Fan I would LOVE to see him win. I am sure a lot of Vincent fans would like to see him win. etc.

Look at the leaderboards of the past. There used to be diversity. Now there isn't. We have come to expect Link to beat Cloud. Say Sonic, Snake, and Crono are in the only NNers in the contest next year. The debate possibility for upsets and excitement would be much better than that of Link vs. Cloud 6. And the next year would be just as interesting and so on.


KB
paraboxx | Posted 11/2/2007 10:35:47 PM | message detail
And yeah, I'm thinking FF7 for that fourpack.

Now maybe if CT was replaced with FF6....
Merc25 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:36:51 PM | message detail
what is this LL site?
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 11/2/2007 10:37:13 PM | message detail
The biggest excitement it generated seems to be from when Snake outlasted Sephiroth for third place (while Link and Cloud dominated once again).

Which is because Link beat Cloud... again.


and barring L-Block, Snake > Sephiroth was more exciting than seeing Link > Cloud this year.


KB
King Morgoth | Posted 11/2/2007 10:38:55 PM | message detail
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:12:53 PM | message detail
My god, I just worked out some scary-ass math with Morgoth's worksheet.

Assuming Link at 50% (obviously), Cloud at 46%, and Snake at 32% (weakest character failure), and assuming L-Block is completely independent of them, pegging L-Block at 25% puts him 2nd (Cloud gets 24.9%).

Pegging L-Block at 29.5% puts him ahead of Link (who gets 29.4%)

I just...what? Please someone tell me I made a mistake somewhere.


I won't redo the math but it makes a hell of a lot of sense. Take the last BR match...Snake got under 20%, Cloud got under 36%. L-Block doesn't need to go that high to beat Cloud considering he's taking some of his votes away...
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creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:39:36 PM | message detail
Thoughts on the math I did earlier? Is no else else totally shocked by that?

Note that if you adjust Snake way down to 26%, L needs 27.6% to beat Cloud and 30.6% to beat Link.

Basically the 27%-30% range is magic for him it seems, in terms of placing/winning.

Maybe, I really hope Link SFFs/LFFs L-Block somehow.

Or SBAllen pulls a SWERVE~! and replaces Snake with Kirby at the last minute >_>
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creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:43:51 PM | message detail
L-Block doesn't need to go that high to beat Cloud considering he's taking some of his votes away...

I'm resting my hopes on FF7 fans not joke-voting...because the fans that joke vote never vote FF7 anyway...such desperate logic we are reduced to.

Man, the final is going to insane.
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transience | Posted 11/2/2007 10:45:17 PM | message detail
depending on how hard L falls here.. I like L-Block for *gulp* first tomorrow. for second.. umm...

how can you even predict that with a straight face? needless to say, whoever comes in second tomorrow, should L win (or even if it doesn't), we can't call them legitimately stronger than the opponent. this is just... umm...

well, it's a Tetris Block. :)
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xyzzy
"And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33
Janus5000 | Posted 11/2/2007 10:45:18 PM | message detail
...

what the good lord
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creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 10:47:48 PM | message detail
Link, you gotta pwn this upstart. Defend your damned throne. Or sacrifice yourself via LFF and let Cloud win! Anything but the L-Block placing in the effin final.
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ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 10:48:23 PM | message detail
3.4pack games contest would be awesome.

Now that would just be pretty ridiculous.

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