GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 543
| ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 7:01:25 PM | message detail |
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You're arguing that Master Chief will never dip below a certain
percentage based off of other matches -- which is hardly reliable
considering he drops with each match he's in -- and that's what I was
pointing out with Squall. If one assumed that there would be no
weirdness with Snake/Squall, there was reason to believe
that Squall could maintain a mid- to high-20s percentage in that match,
especially when there was an even greater chance of a character holding
him back (Sora). That doesn't have anything to do with people's expectations before the match. If there was reason to believe that Squall could maintain a percentage based off of other matches -- much like you're saying with Master Chief -- there's just as likely, if not greater, that Master Chief will follow the same path of not holding up when you stick him against competition that simply outclasses him. He's had the luxury of facing characters who he's either stronger than, be it reasons of the format or otherwise, and characters who have been hit with a split fanbase. In today's match, and in the finals, he's up against characters that are beyond his level -- in the case of the finals, significantly. There's just very, very little reason to believe that Master Chief is going to hold up, other than faith in the character because you want him to (kinda like me and hoping Cloud beats Link!). --- "With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man." |
| Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 7:07:37 PM | message detail |
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You know...I honestly gonna say I feel like L-Block can potentially get 2nd place in the finals! Crappy analysis with no solid basis really: Match 4 of the BR last year: Cloud - 35.71% Link - 46.65% Snake - 19.64% Now..lets half-assly say Block gets 28% again. Hell, lets half-assly say its 27% to make it easier... We half-assly and evenly take 9% from each of them to make L-Block's score and... Cloud - 26.71% Link - 37.65% Snake - 10.64% L-block - 27% There! Half-ass analysis on how L-Block shall prevail!!! --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 7:07:38 PM | message detail |
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That doesn't have anything to do with people's expectations before
the match. If there was reason to believe that Squall could maintain a
percentage based off of other matches It's not about maintaining a percentage. It's about overperforming in the format. Squall was expected to get around 30% based on his competition just off of raw strength. Master Chief was... expected to lose to Yuna by some. Huge difference in the amount of claim you could make for the format helping them. My whole point is Master Chief has done much better than expected in this format, and I believe the reason is because of an odd fanbase. It's not about reading the percents and saying "oh well, MC hasn't gone below 30%, well gee he must not be able to go below that." When he does better than expected in the format, I tend to believe in my speculations. We'll see how much grounds they have soon. Until then... let's just all sit down and drink our GAME FUEL --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 7:09:55 PM | message detail |
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one more day until game fuel dies away hail to the block --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 7:13:04 PM | message detail |
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L-Block's going to be stealin' Master Chief's GAME FUEL! --- "With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man." |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 7:14:13 PM | message detail |
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dethfdddddh West Division Factor 20XX Factor Devil Division Factor Sonic/Megaman against Snake? WDF is the only one of these I recognize (which is funny because for years I always got confused as to what exactly that was). And I don't really believe in it, 2K2 was pretty different. Every year is quite different, but 2K2 especially so because some of our strongest characters were so much weaker, whereas Clinkeroth has been roughly stable ever since then. Now I'm not too sure about this, but WDF was to try and explain why Sonic and Samus ranked above Mario right? Thing about that is, Mario was not the Mario we know back then. Yeah he beat Cloud and Crono and made the finals, but that was a much weaker Mario. Mario had some pretty bad performances that year. He didn't have "undying love" type support from the Nintendo base at the time. I think Sonic would well have beaten Mario that year (though of course that's incredibly debatable). Let's not forget that freakin' Shadow got 45% on him the very next year. I don't think it's much of a stretch to think that Sonic could have beaten Mario in 2K2. Though Mario would likely SFF him to oblivion nowadays, no way does he SFF him back then, at the time their fanbases didn't overlap nearly as much. Also, Mega Man was quite possibly stronger than Mario that year too. If he could almost beat Sephiroth, beating Mario isn't too much of a stretch - outside the possible SFF. Which itself is not very convincing, because not only have we seen actual results change drastically over the years (Mega Man/Snake), but we've also seen SFF tendencies change heavily (Sora/Aeris) and possibly even flip outright. And Mario has become much stronger over the years in regards to SFF. So really, I don't think WDF was ever necessary just to bring things more in line with 2K3, because a lot of important characters' strengths changed a lot from 2K2 to 2K3. Of course, talking about 2K2 nowadays is kinda weak :) trannyscience [what...it is science now?? make up your mind ;) ] but the argument you're using is that his fanbase is sickly loyal, and we just haven't seen evidence of that at all. it's all belief. Yes, exactly. Lopen The evidence is in the format and how well he's doing. But LFF-resistance and probably much moreso Halo 3 hype are the obvious reasons for him being good in this format, this year. A good reason to do so well in four way polls is being resistant to having your fanbase torn apart so easily. If you're talking about SFF/LFF resistance, most of us have already noted that for him. But if you think that means he can break 22% in a Link/Cloud/Snake/Chief match, well, people are going to be highly skeptical, because that would be ridiculously extreme. Independent fanbase leading to LFF-resistance (which he does have) doesn't imply static at all. Against tougher competition, Chief will go down a lot. But like I said, one of Chief's best shots is Snake/Dante overlap hurting them - those two should have fairly little overlap, but more than Chief and and either one. So, there's some hope for Chief making a run at 2nd place. But I can't see him beating either L-Block (Chief isn't getting 29%-30%) or Snake (Chief has the potential to make it much closer with Snake than most expect, but he won't beat him, even if Dante hurts Snake worth). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 11/2/2007 7:15:54 PM | message detail |
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Why did Link fail to increase with the ASV today? --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 7:17:33 PM | message detail |
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Well if you want to get technical, no entrant has a static fanbase. Even L-Block, it will drop. If not this round, next round. I will eat my hat if it doesn't ever drop below 28%. Note that I do not have a hat, but I will eat something else, and it will be tasty. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 7:18:43 PM | message detail |
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assuming L will never fold - it sure looks that way, though) He will fold some I think, just not against an even weaker fourpack than the previous match. I think he'll go up in final percentage from last match. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 7:20:33 PM | message detail |
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isn't the idea of eating a hat that it's not tasty? "if L-Block doesn't fall below 28%, I will eat this kickass sandwich." --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 7:26:17 PM | message detail |
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Basically, I think Chief can put a scare into fans of the other
characters here, and a lot of people will be dreading his day vote
(even with Chief getting totally owned early on, which he will). But I
think in the end he'll fall significantly short of actually placing. Well if you want to get technical, no entrant has a static fanbase. Well yes...but then what do you mean by "static"? Pseudo-static? Regardless, Chief's fanbase is not like L-Block's. They might even be polar opposites. Chief has never shown anything remotely resembling a static fanbase of any sort. Also yeah I agree, I'm fairly confident in saying that L-Block will drop below 28% in the finals. But...not totally certain, I have some nagging doubts about momentum and what not (the "holy crap he can beat Cloud let's make it happen!" factor). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 7:28:53 PM | message detail |
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Clearly you've never experienced the hats that have laid upon my head, tranny. Truly, a dish of the connoisseur! --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 7:30:50 PM | message detail |
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You know I was just reading some topic that mentioned Pokemon, and I
had a randomly crazy idea...imagine if there was a Pokemon game with
Red XIII as a Pokemon? Or how about, a Pokemon clone/rip-off but "mature" - you have super-violent Pokemon thingies that just tear apart your opponents gruesomely. Sounds like money in the bank to me! :) ...um anyway, Red XIII could beat Zelda true or false. I say true, thought it's close. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 7:35:22 PM | message detail |
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Well yes...but then what do you mean by "static"? Pseudo-static?
Regardless, Chief's fanbase is not like L-Block's. They might even be
polar opposites. Chief has never shown anything remotely resembling a
static fanbase of any sort. 52% on Felix->40% on Aeris. 50% on DK->38% on Crono. I know you argue it to the death that there's nothing wrong with these matches, that it was the sword, or whatever... but I just don't think it's the case. You can say DK would get like 35% on Crono and it's not a big deal all you want, I think it'd be more like 30%. And I've heard you say Felix was supposed to be the favorite, that the board expected MC to lose? Hell, it's probably because they all hated Halo. MC getting even close to losing to Felix is absurd. Raw stats, Felix is probably weaker than Isaac. It's not all contest, there's some true to life non statistical logic in there too. He's the almighty icon... for a system that even now at its peak probably only 60% of the site truly accepts as anything other than something to anti-vote --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 7:35:38 PM | message detail |
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neither have you, apparently, if you do not own a hat. I, on the other hand, rock a hat all the damn time. Zelda beats Red. Zelda already beat Aeris soundly. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 7:39:14 PM | message detail |
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I just said I don't have a hat. Doesn't mean I don't own one...!! Big ass orange tophat with a mushroom on it. Very tasty. I won't be eating that though. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 7:42:29 PM | message detail |
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I'm not going to speculate about DK/Crono - if there's one character that's crazy, it's not Chief at all, it's DK. And I've heard you say Felix was supposed to be the favorite, that the board expected MC to lose? No no, he was just the hottest upset pick at the time. Think Halo/Starcraft. I had never even heard of Felix, but he was a very trendy upset choice. The match was supposed to be close. MC getting even close to losing to Felix is absurd. Nowadays, of course, Chief would squash him like a bug. Which totally goes against your argument, because if Chief was static, he'd still struggle with Felix today. And that's just not the case. The match is a huge blowout these days. Zelda already beat Aeris soundly. I wouldn't be too sure about Aeris>Red XIII. Red XIII is a badass, and also, not female. I just have never trusted the strength of female characters too much. Aeris is more iconic than Red XIII, but at this site I think badass and fan-favorite means more. I see Red XIII as more like Vincent than Aeries (though he'd be weaker than Vincent, that's his ceiling). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 7:46:23 PM | message detail |
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Nowadays, of course, Chief would squash him like a bug. Which
totally goes against your argument, because if Chief was static, he'd
still struggle with Felix today. And that's just not the case. The
match is a huge blowout these days. Okay, if you're assuming I'm saying he's static in that he doesn't get stronger from year to year, you're just being silly to try and win the argument here. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 7:50:55 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-1.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-2.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-3.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-4.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-5.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-6.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-7.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-8.jpg --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 7:56:57 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-7.jpg That's reverse L-Block! Sneak Substitution to double his votes!!! --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 7:58:57 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-1.jpg don't like it, probably because it isn't very L-friendly. edge Dante, I guess. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-2.jpg cool background, but too.. small? overall it's good, but I wish the characters took up more room. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-3.jpg jeez, it's like Sub-Zero froze the block. overall, not very good. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-4.jpg old Snake's blocking L! what's up with that font? don't like this one either.. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-5.jpg easy advantage to L. no one else looks that good here, except maybe Dante. then again, I think the Chief always looks stupid, so I'm kinda biased there. such a boring design. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-6.jpg saw this in the SB topic. like it. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-7.jpg theme's been overdone for years, but I love this one. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-62-8.jpg haha, biggest advantage L could get here. --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:06:21 PM | message detail |
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easy advantage to L. no one else looks that good here, except maybe
Dante. then again, I think the Chief always looks stupid, so I'm kinda
biased there. such a boring design. I kinda messed up Dante, but I hid it well with effects. I think Chief looks alright, not enough full-body shots for him though. But hey, main thing is I was going for the L advantage! Why else would I use Melting Snake and TETRISPHERE INT HE BACKGROUND TETRIS MOTHER ****ING SPHERE *****ES. MWHAHAHA! (what have i become) --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Cloud/Samus/Link/Seph - Bracket: Link > Cloud - Vote: Samus (399/524) |
| The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/2/2007 8:08:58 PM | message detail |
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Pics are pretty "meh". There are only 2 different Dante pictures used, I'm sure there are more than 2 good Dante pics out there. --- Go Ducks Go! |
| Merc25 | Posted 11/2/2007 8:09:27 PM | message detail |
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(what have i become) Emperor of Earth? --- If you read this signature, then you have wasted your time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BEsZMvrq-I |
| satai_delenn | Posted 11/2/2007 8:14:39 PM | message detail |
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Hey! My match pic got chosen! YAY! #7 is mine. *dances* Pics are pretty "meh". There are only 2 different Dante pictures used, I'm sure there are more than 2 good Dante pics out there. Well, what's funny is that until this round, NOBODY used that one picture of Dante (the one in mine among others), they always use the other DMC3 one or the stupid DMC2 one. So I was like "I'm gonna use my favorite Dante picture that no one ever uses" and then nearly everyone used it. >_> I think I even posted the other day about this, heh. --- My Contest Hero: Riku Currently playing: Aria of Sorrow, Silent Hill 2, Super Mario RPG |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 8:17:29 PM | message detail |
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I really like pic 3. Also L-Block looks great in these pictures. It's just amazing how much better user-made pictures are than admin stuff. I still don't understand why the admins don't just do the lazy and efficient thing and always take user pics. Okay, if you're assuming I'm saying he's static in that he doesn't get stronger from year to year, you're just being silly to try and win the argument here. What? What are you even talking about? Of course not. You're really not making any sense to me here. How does Chief's performance on Felix remotely mean that he's static unless you think Felix overperformed on Chief that match? Which there is nothing to base that on as we've never seen Felix anywhere else, and plenty that speaks against it - Felix being a popular upset choice, and also not ranking all that much higher than Isaac that year, when everyone said before the contest Felix would be significantly stronger anyway. Fact is Chief being much weaker back then is the most obvious, simplest explanation. I'm beginning to wonder if you have any sort of consistent logic at play here...? You've yet to address anything that totally contradicts your belief, and you haven't really pointed out real evidence yet. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 8:20:39 PM | message detail |
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Anyway, we should have a good idea after tomorrow. I'm starting to smell another L-Block victory though. Also Duo-L in pic 8 is badass. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/2/2007 8:23:28 PM | message detail |
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Wow, Tetris yaoi actually got in? Awesome. And creative, CJayC's made some great pics in the past, especially in the later rounds. I think that this contest just doesn't lend itself as well to great pics, since you have to split the focus four ways. Even the user-made pics are generally not as impressive as in previous contests (Jeopardy is an obvious exception >_>). --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:26:31 PM | message detail |
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Semifinals: Match 62 – Master Chief vs. Dante vs. L-Block vs. Solid Snake Moltar’s Analysis Master Chief - Only one match away from finishing the fight! Round 1 – 45.69% vs. Yuna, Tommy and PaRappa Round 2 – 43.78% vs. Yuna, Alucard and Liquid Snake Round 3 – 35.42% vs. Luigi, Ganondorf and Yuna Round 4 – 32.12% vs. Dante, Luigi and Pikachu Another first place victory for The Chief! Dante - Might as well not even show up to the match. Round 1 – 49.19% vs. Amaterasu, Little Mac and Matt Round 2 – 43.41% vs. Amaterasu, Ada and Balthier Round 3 – 30.43% vs. Pikachu, Leon and Ammy Round 4 – 26.59% vs. Master Chief, Luigi and Pikachu Dante gets his revenge against Pikachu. L-Block - Shaped like a boot…to apparently support his massive bandwagon. Round 1 – 30.89% vs. Kirby, Laharl and Nathan Round 2 – 28.33% vs. Kratos, Kirby and DK Round 3 – 28.63% vs. Snake, Kratos and Riku Round 4 – 29.03% vs. Snake, Sonic and Squall L-Block beats two Noble Niners and one of the top near-elites. You said wow. Snake - Male Bracket winner in 2006…who lost to a Block. Round 1 – 57.88% vs. Nightmare, Rayman and Vyse Round 2 – 47.72% vs. Riku, Ryu H. and Nightmare Round 3 – 32.44% vs. L-Block, Kratos and Riku Round 4 – 28.86% vs. L-Block, Sonic and Squall Almost beat L-Block…what. This is….not the Round 5 match I expected here. Clearly, I am not in Kansas anymore. Dante? The guy deserves a few words for making it this far. He takes last easy here. The main match is between Solid Snake, Master Chief, and L-Block. Sure, it would be easy to call Snake a lock for first, but look at his main competitors so far. Chief has gotten first in all his matches so far, and his opponents haven’t been chumps. L-Block is on a warpath, gaining momentum like a Katamari. He goes from getting crushed by Kirby to beating out not just Snake, but Sonic….by over 10K votes. Still, I take Snake to redeem himself and take first. Sonic and Squall had to have hurt Snake, as they are strong competition. Master Chief and Dante? Talk about a downgrade. Plus, Snake may be helped by getting some of those Dante voters as well. The big question is: Who stands tall? Chief’s “30 strong” or L-Block’s “29 loyal”? Hard to say here. We know L-Block’s going to hold up, as there is no reason for him to break trends after still keeping up last round. Chief is the big chance here. This is by far the strongest pack he has had to face, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is where he ran out of weapons and GAME FUEL. So I’m going, once again, with Snake > L-Block. Chief advancing wouldn’t surprise me, but he’s going to need to not fall apart at night and rock the day, because L-Block…he will kick your ass hard. Moltar’s Match Pic: http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/5845/gfaqsmcdantelsnakecopyib5.png Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake > Sonic Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 31% - L-Block: 29% - Master Chief: 25% - Dante: 15% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Very interesting match here, because while L-Block has gotten a ton of momentum all contest, he's up against a character in Master Chief that is fully capable of using his day vote prowess to overtake him. This *should* be a match with Chief in first place and L-Block/Snake fighting it out for close second. Or maybe not. I honestly have no clue how to look at any L-Block match anymore, and I LOVE IT. Ulti's Prediction: Master Chief [28.00%] L-Block [27.00%] Snake [26.00%] Dante [19.00%] |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:26:51 PM | message detail |
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Heroic Mario’s Analysis It's crazy to think that at the beginning of this contest the discussion was all about L-Block/Laharl, and here we are now with the ol' Block nearly a lock to make the finals. Looking at it, L-Block has gone from losing to Kirby in round 1 to beating Snake, Sonic and Squall just last round. I'm not sure how that even happens, but there it is. Given what the Block has done, it seems almost wrong not to give him a win here. I'm not sure why it is that I think Snake pulls this out, especially when taking into consideration that his competition is bound to be more detrimental to him than not, but it “feels” right with him winning – and quite easily at that. I suppose the argument supporting the pick would be that if the competition is weaker, L-Block might not do as well than if the competition was stronger. Earlier matches could point to that being the case too – losing to Kirby, then beating Kirby, then losing to Snake, then beating Snake, etc. But what worries me in this match is Dante. I don't believe in any “badass SFF,” but with Snake and Dante being two big PlayStation characters, there's bound to be some overlap there. Now Snake shouldn't have any problem SFFing him – as opposed to splitting votes – but there's some cause for concern that might let the L-Block squeak by yet again. As for Master Chief, I think his run is going to come to an end here. There's been more and more talk about his “loyal fanbase” in light of L-Block's performances, but don't expect that to hold up. He's not going to be pulling in another 30%. He won't do poorly or anything, but – and this sounds just weird – Snake and L-Block are just beyond what he's capable of. At this point, I'd be pretty surprised if Master Chief placed. There's just no reason, based on what we've seen, to believe that L-Block can't put the numbers to get past him, or that the Chief has the strength to pull off what the Block has done. So yeah – our finals are going to be Cloud/Link/Snake/L-Block. When a Tetris piece is making the finals of your character contest, I think that's as good a sign as any that it's time for a break. Snake – 32% L-Block – 29% Master Chief – 25% Dante – 14% Bracket: Snake > Sonic Vote: Snake Yoblazer’s Analysis Two more days before we say goodbye to this contest, folks! Are you sad? Personally, a part of me is. The part that loves seeing Tetris blocks in tournament finals and other shocking results is shedding a tear right now. The part of me that likes seeing more green than red and yellow on my bracket, conversely, is leaping for joy. One day before we bid this puppy adieu, we will be treated with the last semi-final match, and, judging by what Link is doing right now, perhaps our last exciting match of the tournament. Actually, I'm not even sure if I should refer to this match as "exciting" in the traditional sense. In my opinion, the two winners are completely clear, and only their places are up in the air. This match is more exciting because of the characters and circumstances involved. Snake and L-Block will be doing battle for the third straight time (series tied at one apiece!), and Master Chief will face his greatest competitors yet, as he either fizzles a-la Master Chief 2003-2006 or silences the faithless heathens. And Dante is just screwed. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:27:52 PM | message detail |
| Like their past two matches, I figure this one
will be a battle between Snake and L-Block. They've both throttled the
competition, and I see them continuing such dominance today. Most
people seem to think that Snake will reverse his fortunes and win this
time around, mainly due to the fact that Dante will be throwing free
percentage points his way. While this is certainly a logical argument,
I wouldn't be surprised if L-Block managed to win again. I am a staunch
supporter of momentum voting in cases like this, and just the "Holy
****, it's still in this?!" reaction will buff L-Block up a bit. In
addition, I see no reason to believe why Dante's imminent collapse
won't help L-Block as well as Snake. Seeing as how he's so, so much
more popular than his games and series (having one of the most
appealing designs in gaming will do that), I see Dante as not only a
badass, but a casual's dream, and a character that casual can only help
the 90 degree mechanism of destruction. I'm still giving it to Snake,
but I think L-Block could easily make it a lot closer than most people
are thinking (or win outright). The second story here is Master Chief's. The Halo star and marketed-down-the-universe's-throat badass started this contest like an absolute lightning bolt, but his last two matches haven't been as impressive. His last match, especially, left me scratching my head. The fact that he let Dante stay respectably close in this format hints that Master Chief could have been really benefiting from extremely fortunate bracket placement. Either way, I don't see him holding up today. Kirby's fanbase has collapsed in the face of L-Block. Kratos's fanbase has collapsed in the face of L-Block. God damned Sonic and Squall collapsed in his presence. While Chief may have a pretty hardcore fanbase, I think it's being overrated. They don't play nothing but Halo, they don't sacrifice animals while chanting "Believe. Believe. Believe.", and they don't vote Master Chief over everything under the sun. He would not have come close to accomplishing what L-Block did last round (beating Sonic by over 10,000 votes? Are you kidding me?), and he won't hold up here. Awesome result, Chief. It was your most impressive year by a landslide, and I look forward to seeing if this strength carries over in a more traditional contest setting next year. And Dante is just screwed. Solid Snake - 32% L-Block - 31% Master Chief - 23% Dante - 14% Lopen’s Analysis Here's where it all gets put on the line. Will Master Chief be able to advance to the next round to finish the fight? Or will the power of the Block and Snake (Maybe Dante instead!? That would be a crazy party, let me tell ya.) be too much for him? Let me tell you what Master Chief's case is, here. Now, I have always been of the believe...f that Master Chief's fanbase is like L-Block's to some degree, minus the idioc-- okay, fine, no cheap shots... professional analysis here! Okay, so, the thing about MC's core fanbase is, they will vote him over anything. In the 1vs1 format it doesn't matter so much... but here? Absolutely. "But Lopen," you say! "Master Chief started out with 45% and dropped to 32% as his opponents got stronger! How can you claim that's static?" Well, if you'll notice, I said the core. Yeah, MC has the potential to go higher... it's how he wins matches 1v1. He doesn't have a static 30% and that's it... he has a static ~30%, and then he's got the ability to do better depending on the strength of his competition. And honestly, it's likely the same could said of L-Block, if he had ever had a weaker four pack to go against. Replace Kirby with say... Vyse... in the first round, and the Block would've crushed that four pack with 40%+, I'm sure. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:28:08 PM | message detail |
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So what does this mean? L-Block's static 28%, Master Chief's static 30%... this poll is going to be seriously screwed up
as far as distributions go. With Solid Snake and Dante having 42% of
the vote to split amongst themselves. However... not necessarily. When
two static fanbases collide... they both might screw with one another.
Certainly there is overlap between Master Chief's 30% and L-Block's
28%. Could be lopsided, could not be. I could see both of them going
(not too significantly from this though) below their "floors" here. Okay... I see that skeptical look. Some of you aren't buying that Master Chief follows this trend. Hey, that's okay. However, even if that's the case, MC is not to be ignored here. Master Chief has looked of comparable strength or better than Snake, every round. It defies the logic of previous contests, but even assuming MC doesn't have any sort of static fanbase, raw power alone might be able to win him this. Master Chief is not to be trifled with in this format, period. I also believe that it's possible that L-Block might lose some of its support this round. Now... I said this last round too, that it might've become beating a dead horse at this point, but now that it's beaten Solid Snake, Sonic, and Squall I think it's more likely than ever that people believe that it's gone too far. A number of people yesterday on the boards said "if I knew it was going to win I wouldn't have voted for it." Now it's true that the boards are not the general public, yet I believe that if L-Block voters have said this on the board, the might've said this in many places. And when your fanbase is as dependent on fanaticism as the block's is, this could be trouble for his chances if even say... 1/10 of his voters think this. So... with all these things considered, I believe that it's time for the L-Block to bow out, once again. I'm not sure it'll lose significant support from MC's staticness interfering and the joke going too far, but I think it will. Die you Tetris Piece die. You're messin with GAME FUEL now! NO ESCAPE. INVINCIBLE! Master Chief: Saving mankind's ass from the L-Block time and time again. Oh, and because I feel bad not saying one full line about Dante... Dante is awesome. He may not win here, but he deserves to, dammit! Lopen's prediction: Master Chief - 30.07% Solid Snake - 25.45% Stupid Ass Tetris Piece - 25.13% Dante - 19.35% Transience’s Analysis our two big guns are set.. what happens when the most improbable run in contest history meets a bandwagon? uh oh... Master Chief yet to be threatened, Master Chief would be considered one of the contest's great stars if he hadn't set ungodly expectations in the first two rounds. now he's merely looking to be at Sonic/Crono/Vincent/Squall levels -- will that be enough? will his unique fanbase come through? Dante got his most impressive win in his six year history -- a night vote win over Luigi, who was being held back by a yellow rat. a lock to place fourth here, but can he impress? and if he does, does he mess things up for everybody else? L-Block L-Block 30.89% 40116 L-Block 28.33% 37825 L-Block 28.63% 40774 L-Block 29.03% 44753 Solid Snake his heated rivalry with a Tetris Block stands at 1-1. who wins the rubber match? ...I just typed that. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:29:06 PM | message detail |
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now then - I think this is L-Block's toughest test yet. why? simple -
the competition isn't as steep. Master Chief may or may not be as
strong as Sonic. I won't put up any resistance there. Dante, though, is
definitely weaker than Squall, and may look even worse given that he's
facing Snake. even with two Noble Niners and Squall to split votes,
L-Block only won by the absolute slimmest of margins and likely needed
some outside rallying help in order to hold Snake off during the day. this time, we lower the competition. Master Chief has shown a non-linear fanbase in the past, the type that may help him out in a match like this. given that he's already looking to be around Sonic's level and that he's impressed against strong competition in the past, can you really count him out? this match has the potential to be off the charts as far as trends go: L-Block, the single greatest first hour ever, against Master Chief, the single greatest day vote ever. I wouldn't be that amazed if MC swung 3-4000 votes - that's just how insane that day vote is. his night vote is going to hurt him BAD though and he might be down 2000 votes before the first hour is even over. I won't abandon the Block, though. just look at the bandwagon that has formed. NGamer archived it for the ages: http://www.thengamer.com/gamefaqs/07-LBlockOverSnakeMadness.html scroll down for a few dozen pages. the L-Wagon is as insane as ever, people are awake, rallying will probably happen in any close match, people love to crap all over Master Chief.. Lopen's gonna suffer after this one's over. sorry, Master Chief, you're about to get TRIPLE'D. (I haven't predicted the block wrong yet -- take this as good faith that it's a lock!) BLOCKFEAR. twenty-eight percent. Snake wins, but there is an L in the way. transience's prediction: Solid Snake with 31.58%, L-Block with 29.10%, Master Chief with 26.78%, Dante with 12.54% Crew Consensus: Going with Snake > L-Block again. |
| Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 8:33:08 PM | message detail |
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Oh Lopen... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 8:37:43 PM | message detail |
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but now that it's beaten Solid Snake, Sonic, and Squall I think it's
more likely than ever that people believe that it's gone too far. the exact opposite, if you ask me. now people see it's legit. it has a chance. that chance to win the whole thing. but we've fought over this enough today.. 25 minutes before there's a Block Party. --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:39:26 PM | message detail |
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Gotta show Snake some love in this sea of L-Block fanboyism! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe MC/Dante/L-Block/Snake - Bracket: Snake > Sonic - Vote: Snake (463/588) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:40:26 PM | message detail |
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But if L-Block does make it to the finals, he will have my vote. L-Block over Cloud? Maybe Link? I want to believe. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe MC/Dante/L-Block/Snake - Bracket: Snake > Sonic - Vote: Snake (463/588) |
| BDawg | Posted 11/2/2007 8:41:56 PM | message detail |
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At least this match sorta made up for that omg malibu Samus vs. Tifa match last year. --- Should I start running now? |
| satai_delenn | Posted 11/2/2007 8:43:10 PM | message detail |
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Agh L-Block why do you toy with the universe this way *holds up pro-Snake picket signs* I'd support Dante, but, well. >_> --- My Contest Hero: Riku Currently playing: Aria of Sorrow, Silent Hill 2, Super Mario RPG |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 8:44:10 PM | message detail |
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All I saw scrolling down was "his heated rivalry with a Tetris Block". So awesome! :) Just imagine Snake sitting there, plotting his revenge...(does Snake plot?)...designing his tactics...dreaming of breaking L-Block's neck. (and I'm sure by now Snake has studied Tetrad anatomy quite thoroughly) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 8:45:36 PM | message detail |
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quick, someone replace Sora with a Tetris block in that one picture. --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| Sykolan | Posted 11/2/2007 8:46:24 PM | message detail |
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 11:40:26 PM | message detail But if L-Block does make it to the finals, he will have my vote. L-Block over Cloud? Maybe Link? I want to believe. This. --- Pokemon Diamond FC: 0215-7322-4653 SHAPED LIKE A BOOT TO KICK YOUR ASS! VOTE L-BLOCK! |
| Warsola | Posted 11/2/2007 8:47:00 PM | message detail |
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his heated rivalry with a Tetris Block stands at 1-1. who wins the rubber match? ...I just typed that. Aww yeah tranny ^5 --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! Official Head of the L-Block Belief Core! |
| paraboxx | Posted 11/2/2007 8:47:30 PM | message detail |
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Pics aren't as good this time. Only one I really like is 7. Well, if you'll notice, I said the core. Yeah, MC has the potential to go higher... it's how he wins matches 1v1. He doesn't have a static 30% and that's it... he has a static ~30%, and then he's got the ability to do better depending on the strength of his competition. Just wanted to say that I "get" this concept. Unless I'm misreading things, some others here don't seem to believe that this is even possible...but I can definitely see it happening. I can even see where Master Chief has more evidence of having such a fanbase than anybody else. I don't think that evidence is conclusive yet, though; the Chief's competition has just been far too weak for that. We'll know in a moment.... Snake and L-Block will be doing battle for the third straight time (series tied at one apiece!) This makes me smile. |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 8:49:31 PM | message detail |
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It's amazing, we actually had a Link/Cloud match today that has become a total afterthought in a sea of L-Block obsession. I guess the fact that it's not the last Link/Cloud match had something to do with that, but still. L-Block overshadowing everything in its path! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| chaos knight | Posted 11/2/2007 8:50:33 PM | message detail |
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Like I said a few days ago, the Snake/L-Block rivalry reminds me of Crab Battle for some reason. --- You know, if Microsoft were to stage a hostile takeover of EA...I'd actually cheer them on. |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 8:50:57 PM | message detail |
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How long is L-Block going to be doubling Chief for? I say the first hour. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| BDawg | Posted 11/2/2007 8:51:32 PM | message detail |
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Well I'm watching anxiously to see if Link finishes over 39% for no
particular reason. He dropped to 39.01 once but it looks like he's
pushed back enough of a buffer. But yeah obligatory L-block=boot etc. --- Should I start running now? |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 8:52:06 PM | message detail |
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For the whole match. --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2007 8:52:16 PM | message detail |
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To comment on the current match...I have nothing on Link/Cloud. It's all about Samus > Seph THE FORMAT MEANS NOTHING NON BELIEVERS This is raw Samus power. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe MC/Dante/L-Block/Snake - Bracket: Snake > Sonic - Vote: Snake (463/588) |
