GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 542
| Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 11:51:42 AM | message detail |
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The thing with mounting a comeback on L-Block is that so far, the only
successful comebacks have resulted from his opponents starting to cut
at his lead during the night. By the point MC potentially starts
cutting into the lead with his day surge, it's likely to be too little
too late. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2007 11:52:30 AM | message detail |
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What if we see L-Block>MC tomorrow? >_> --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Sykolan | Posted 11/2/2007 11:53:17 AM | message detail |
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2007 2:52:30 PM | message detail What if we see L-Block>MC tomorrow? >_> Epic result will be epic. <_< --- Pokemon Diamond FC: 0215-7322-4653 "Blacker than a moonless night, hotter and more bitter than hell itself...that is coffee." -Godot, PW T&T |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2007 11:53:29 AM | message detail |
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By the point MC potentially starts cutting into the lead with his day surge, it's likely to be too little too late. Thing is, L-Block has one of the worst relative day votes ever, while MC has the best. I could see MC coming back from a 2000 vote deficit easily. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 11:56:44 AM | message detail |
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Thing is, L-Block has one of the worst relative day votes ever,
while MC has the best. I could see MC coming back from a 2000 vote
deficit easily. Oh, the deficit is likely to be WAY beyond that... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 11:57:28 AM | message detail |
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yeah, I'd say L needs 4000 to be safe. he could have that within one hour. --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 11:58:32 AM | message detail |
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I mean, L was up 7000 votes on Sonic and won by 12,000. it's not like
the thing rolls up and dies in the daytime like a Bidoof or something. --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| Mumei | Posted 11/2/2007 12:02:17 PM | message detail |
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Go for 40%, Link. ^_^ --- "I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 12:04:10 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I don't think MC falls too far behind L-Block. In fact, despite a much
worse night vote I see him keeping neck and neck with Snake. Why? Once
again, the voter floor I speak of. However, even if he does fall way
behind, MC likely will start stalling/making small cuts with the night
vote rather than the block extending its lead. In spite of Chief's
night vote being bad, he'll be much better proportionally to L-Block with it than with the early vote. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| Warsola | Posted 11/2/2007 12:06:11 PM | message detail |
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Lopen, L-Block killed SNAKE with the early vote. Of course MC's night
vote is going to be comparatively better than his early vote. >_> --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! Official Head of the L-Block Belief Core! |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 12:09:00 PM | message detail |
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Well I'm just explaining why Master Chief making significant cuts with the night vote makes any sense. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 12:27:08 PM | message detail |
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MC having a floor... I've yet to see any proof of this whatsoever. you
could say any character has a "floor". being independent and having a
floor are two separate things. we've seen this with joke characters,
but that's about all. I mean, MC is as casual as it gets. they'll
abandon him just as easily as they would anybody else. it just seems like you're clinging to belief rather than logic! --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| transience | Posted 11/2/2007 12:28:04 PM | message detail |
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and here's your after-school vote, and nobody doing much of anything. --- xyzzy "And Snake has scaled the mountain. He is within 10% of a Tetris block." -yoblazer33 |
| Lopen | Posted 11/2/2007 12:33:34 PM | message detail |
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Logic supports that a character with a voter floor would do a lot better in this format. And look, Master Chief is doing a lot better in this format. And that's the only support I need to believe at the moment. He simply hasn't needed to use it. (Also, I thought Gordon had one too to a much lesser degree, and as I expected he looked much better in Round 2 than Round 1. People are quick to blame the stupid Orange Box, but I'm not buying that.) --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:08:29 PM | message detail |
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The post wasn't dumb at all. He said day vote, not board vote, which
is a huuuge difference. The overnight vote is key - a large majority of
the time, it's what is most important to %age stabilization, as I
always say. His post did underrate the importance of the MC after
school vote, which actually makes the overnight votes in Chief matches
less important than usual. But it wasn't dumb in the least, that was
uncalled for. Like I said, I don't really know if Squall would struggle
much to at least come close to what Chief did the last couple rounds. No kidding it's a huge difference... I was exaggerating for effect. The point is, looking at MC's matches and basing his strength from where he is prior to the ASV, his best time, is absolutely beyond stupid. Yeah, he barely had a 2,000 vote lead on him at that time, who cares? He had a 7,500 vote lead on him by the end of the match, and I'm pretty sure that's what we're concerned with here. There'd be plenty of matches where the result would be different if you looked at who was leading halfway through the match as opposed to the end. That just reeks of desperation to make MC look bad. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| swirIdude | Posted 11/2/2007 1:10:32 PM | message detail |
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Calling The Orange Box "stupid" for any reason is a violation of the Terms of Living. --- L-BLOCK! National Shoddy Battle League: 1-0 |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:13:56 PM | message detail |
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But MC has shown to have somewhat of a voter floor, or at least
"hardcore" fanbase from his 1v1 matches. His overperforming against
strong characters, and constant disappointment against those thought to
be weaker show this. It's the entire concept behind L's hardcore
fanbase as well. Losing to Kirby, yet beating Snake for example. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:18:07 PM | message detail |
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By the way, I fully recognize that L has basically proven he will
always get a significant portion of the votes, while MC has not, I'm
not trying to overstate the proof behind MC's core base, but to say he
hasn't shown it is just silly. That and even if MC's is lower than what
we've seen him put up so far (and let's be realistic it is), he still
has wiggle room to oust L. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:19:31 PM | message detail |
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Tomorrow's gonna be the best match of this contest. Book it. --- CB6 - 338/512; Oracle - 32nd http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:21:16 PM | message detail |
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28/28/28/16 book it --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2007 1:25:45 PM | message detail |
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Block has one of the worst relative day votes? Dude, maybe in this next
poll, but I still maintain my position that he did damn ok with it last
poll. I mean he had some crazy ****ing stalls going on. --- GSB International Champion WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 1:27:22 PM | message detail |
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the argument for Master Chief is that he's strong enough to get 28% of
the vote, not that he's static. I will agree (or at least tolerate) the
former, but the latter? him acting like a normal character - lower
percentages against stronger competition - says otherwise. maybe his
independence gives him a higher percentage than you'd expect vs. strong
opponents, but I wouldn't call it a 30% floor. that's crazy. he's not getting 30% in the final, put it that way. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:29:54 PM | message detail |
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Link/Cloud/Chief/L-Block finals would result in a 30/30/30/30 match. Yeah, that's right. --- CB6 - 338/512; Oracle - 32nd http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:30:54 PM | message detail |
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uh.. yeah I don't think he actually has a 30% floor, but I don't think
L does either (and well obviously it doesn't just look at the other
matches, not to say you're implying this), but I DO think he has a
hardcore floor greater than most characters, what that number is, I
don't really know, but I don't earnestly believe it's 30%, hell I don't
think Lopen thinks it's 30%. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2007 1:32:50 PM | message detail |
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Considering L-Block has basically been improving and getting more votes
each and every round...does it really have a well defined floor yet? --- GSB International Champion WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2007 1:33:17 PM | message detail |
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nvm EC pretty much just established what I was saying --- GSB International Champion WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:33:52 PM | message detail |
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L-Block's day vote was *better* than his night vote last round, and he
held up in the day better than Snake with Kratos and Riku in the poll.
His day vote isn't bad compared to his night vote - it's his first 2-3
hours that are so completely ridiculous, but that's not really the
night vote. Consider it a sort of extended Power Hour, like the CT
characters get. Unlike them, though, L-Block doesn't have a big true
night/day disparity. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:36:05 PM | message detail |
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The last match hinted that Chief is a lot less spectacular than most of
thought after his first few matches. He's got to deal with Dante (who
seems to have hurt him more than any other character) again, Snake (who
will likely undervalue both of them), and L-Block, who's in for even
more momentum and another round of kickass pictures. If Chief finishes closer to 30% than 20%, I'll be absolutely floored. Completely gobsmacked. Hell, I'll bet this crappy account on it right now. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:37:09 PM | message detail |
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i would take that bet, but you know, 400 dollars --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 11/2/2007 1:38:09 PM | message detail |
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From PortugalTheMann Posted 11/2/2007 4:37:09 PM #429 i would take that bet, but you know, 400 dollars hey ec you're my best friend right it's my birthday soon y'know have you decided what you're getting me yet? =o ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:38:10 PM | message detail |
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I don't think betting to close one's account is against the ToS. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:38:16 PM | message detail |
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gobsmacked --- CB6 - 338/512; Oracle - 32nd http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 1:38:43 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't make that bet. I mean I don't think Master Chief will
approach 30%. But I do think 25.01% is reasonable. And I personally
wouldn't want to lose an account because of .01 percent! --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:40:05 PM | message detail |
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Master Chief outperforming Sonic by 3.5% doesn't sound all that reasonable to me. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:40:40 PM | message detail |
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it definitely is against the ToS, and plus closing my account might screw with a valid entry --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 1:41:11 PM | message detail |
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It' wouldn't be outperforming Sonic when he has to deal with Dante instead of Squall. --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 1:41:22 PM | message detail |
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I don't think MC getting 30% should be shocking. let's just do some math: Dante's not going to do well here. Snake's probably going to hurt him. let's say he getd 15% - optimistic for me, but it's probably what people expect. let's say MC = Sonic and Squall > Dante. Snake has nowhere to go but up, but he's not going to go THAT far up. I'll say 35%. assuming L gets his 28, that leaves 22 for Chief. it's certainly not unrealistic that he could make up that difference, especially given his independence. I don't buy a floor, but I do buy an overperformance against people stronger than he is. if Snake gets lower, which is more than possible, he looks even better. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:41:55 PM | message detail |
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L-Block outperforming Sonic by 3.5% didn't sound reasonable at one point either. Let alone 7.5. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:42:48 PM | message detail |
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Well, L-Block might be even stronger this time around, and Chief has to
worry about Snake and Dante, who will overlap with him more than would
with a character like Sonic. I do believe Snake will help undervalue
Chief. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 1:43:22 PM | message detail |
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Snake/Dante overlap >> any MC/Snake or MC/Dante overlap. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 1:44:29 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 1:44:31 PM | message detail |
| yeah, it's possible, but I'd rather not rely on
something completely unproven (and in a way, contradictory - where's
the similarity?) I'll treat MC as being independent of Snake until he
shows me otherwise. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/2/2007 1:44:37 PM | message detail |
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Master Chief really hasn't been any less impressive than Sonic in this
format. So putting up a performance that's roughly equal to Sonic's.
What's so hard to swallow about that? --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/2/2007 1:54:42 PM | message detail |
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Could L-Block SFF CATS? --- Support 2-HOURS-LATE-MAN!!!! (darn sig bets) http://danielyoon10.deviantart.com/ |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 1:55:34 PM | message detail |
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CATS is about the only thing that will slow L down. maybe Mudkip, too. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:56:19 PM | message detail |
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and in a way, contradictory - where's the similarity? The characters themselves are pretty similar, aren't they? Snake and Chief are for more similar than MGS and Halo, anyway. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 1:56:49 PM | message detail |
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I could see Master Chief dropping down 2-3k in the first couple of
hours like Sonic did and still manage to come back. That's how
ridiculous I think an L-Block/MC swing is going to be. L-Block built up a 1500 vote lead on Snake in the first hour, for goodness sake. How in the world does Chief keep it within 3K before the ASV? The only possibility for that to happen is that L-Block suddenly gets less percentage this match than the previous match, which while not impossible, would totally be contrary to everything we've seen so far. Chief's deficit will be closer to the 7K votes that Sonic trailed L by just before the ASV than the 1.5K Snake trailed by after one hour, if not greater. The only reason Chief won't trail by more than Sonic did is because he's facing weaker competition than Sonic (which will likely help him more than it helps L). But him trailing by much more than 7K is quite possible because Sonic's better with all the pre-ASV hours than Chief. Very likely that Chief won't lose as much in the end as Sonic did, but he won't trail pre-ASV by much less, and it could be more. I think MC's "voter floor" that I've been talking about will save him from dropping too low Does not exist. I hope that if next match goes totally against this notion, it will cease to exist. Yet for some reason I think we will continue to hear about this classic Zombie myth no matter what happens tomorrow :) I really don't understand why these things don't go away. Just taking this contest alone at its face value, MC has looked about as good as Snake. This is completely untrue, that's just nuts. Do you not remember Snake's early matches?? I even said at the time how they made Chief's performances look tame by comparison. And that was at the peak of Chief mania, before his somewhat more mild performances the last two rounds. No one would have thought Chief's performances looked more dominant than Snake's. Snake looked like a god. In fact, despite a much worse night vote I see him keeping neck and neck with Snake. Why? Once again, the voter floor I speak of. OK...I didn't quite realize you thought stuff like this...I think I was just wasting my time here :) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 1:57:48 PM | message detail |
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well, I'm not that familiar with either, but Snake seems like a totally
different beast from the Chief to me. they're different genres,
different systems, and fairly different characters outside of being
"badass". Dante and Leon have far more similarity between them if you ask me. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 1:58:21 PM | message detail |
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and I didn't even touch Snake's newfound Nintendo roots. --- "The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter |
| Keno316 | Posted 11/2/2007 1:59:21 PM | message detail |
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There's no ASV tomorrow, CN... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
