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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 542

hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:46:59 PM | message detail
I like how a lot of people are now coming forward by saying the L-Block is, in fact, not funny. Silent majority theory proven
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 9:47:32 PM | message detail
Cloud - 38921
L-Block - 42384


things will die

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red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:47:58 PM | message detail
If anything, I figured the Nintendo "hive mind" would give Link the edge. He'll be the lone Nintendo rep, after all.

Eh, while this isn't true for most Square games, the FFVII fanbase is just as dedicated. I think Link has 2 somewhat distinct fanbases though- one is centered around his NES/SNES games- this is the part that might be expected to be hurt by L-Block. And the other is centered around OOT and his newer games, with strength from Smash thrown in. The older fanbase here is perhaps larger (the last favorite Nintendo console poll was absolute SNES domination), although that might have changed by now, but the newer fanbase is much less likely to abandon Link/Nintendo I think.
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ThreeLions4life | Posted 11/1/2007 9:48:09 PM | message detail
lol @ the people thinking anyone else but Link would win this... AGAIN


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Seginustemple | Posted 11/1/2007 9:49:01 PM | message detail
Hey man, I've never said the thing was funny.

And I actually agree with whoever said that L-block may lose support becuase people think he's gone TOO far.
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
MnMZero | Posted 11/1/2007 9:49:09 PM | message detail
MnMZero, miaminole21,

Aww yeah double leaderboard action. Somehow I don't feel safe though. I have a feeling there's gonna be another kick to the teeth before the contest ends...
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 9:49:16 PM | message detail
Geez, it doesn't really help your case FF7 characters, when Sephiroth increases and Cloud actually drops a bit

Well, maybe it means FF7 always gets close to 40%...in which case Cloud>L-Block :)

Course that's not actually true. Also FF7's total percent here will rise...but, it won't be by nearly as much as usual, with above-average day vote characters like Link and Samus in there. They're not hitting 45% total, might even struggle just to get 43%.
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BDawg | Posted 11/1/2007 9:49:23 PM | message detail
There will be plenty of time for loling in two days when the results are in hand, I don't want to jinx this. Especially with a wild L-block running around here.
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Should I start running now?
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:49:24 PM | message detail
Tetris's nigh-unparalleled recognizability and "nobody hates it" status helps L-Block, sure, but let's get real here. Nobody is looking at its matches and thinking "Tetris?! My favorite game!"

*click*
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trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2007 9:50:16 PM | message detail
I am, actually. :)
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Lopen | Posted 11/1/2007 9:50:28 PM | message detail
I've been hatin on L-Block since round one, baby! *blows a kiss to the fans*
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:50:32 PM | message detail
They're not hitting 45% total, might even struggle just to get 43%.

And that would be a pretty terribly sign, seeing as how Vincent and Sephiroth were just shy of 42%.
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JonPen1416 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:51:33 PM | message detail
Watching Cloud and Sephiroth take turns stealing Samus's % is cute. It's like they are cooperating. ;)
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 9:51:46 PM | message detail
Actually I shouldn't rule out FF7 getting 45% already, but it is looking shaky.

Tetris's nigh-unparalleled recognizability and "nobody hates it" status helps L-Block, sure, but let's get real here. Nobody is looking at its matches and thinking "Tetris?! My favorite game!"

Well duh :) What's your point exactly?
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 9:52:07 PM | message detail
Course that's not actually true. Also FF7's total percent here will rise...but, it won't be by nearly as much as usual, with above-average day vote characters like Link and Samus in there. They're not hitting 45% total, might even struggle just to get 43%.

Eh, I think it would be pretty easy for them to hit that. If Cloud manages 30% -- which he should -- and Sephiroth manages 15% -- which he should -- that's 45% between them. I don't think it's necessarily out of the question for them to do a bit more than that either, although I may be optimistic.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:52:42 PM | message detail
FFVII *needs* that 45%. If they can achieve that, then things are looking good for me... and grim for the rest of you
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 9:53:36 PM | message detail
Well duh :) What's your point exactly?

If this is all joke voting and no true Tetris fanboyism, then L-Block probably won't be hurting any one thing more than another (in this case, Link or Cloud).
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 9:53:55 PM | message detail
Eh, I think it would be pretty easy for them to hit that. If Cloud manages 30% -- which he should -- and Sephiroth manages 15% -- which he should -- that's 45% between them. I don't think it's necessarily out of the question for them to do a bit more than that either, although I may be optimistic.


That would probably call for Samus to drop to 17%. That's pretty severe. Although, not out of the question I guess
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Lopen | Posted 11/1/2007 9:57:14 PM | message detail
If this is all joke voting and no true Tetris fanboyism, then L-Block probably won't be hurting any one thing more than another (in this case, Link or Cloud).

Yes, but let me repeat again.

People who do not like Tetris much are not nearly as likely to vote for it. Even if they are all voting for it as a joke.

It's like the Carrier from Starcraft. People would vote for it because "MASS CARRIERS = INSTANT WIN!" but the majority of the people who find that funny are Starcraft fans anyway.
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Seginustemple | Posted 11/1/2007 9:57:16 PM | message detail
And Link says he aint gonna take that no more.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 9:57:27 PM | message detail
If this is all joke voting and no true Tetris fanboyism, then L-Block probably won't be hurting any one thing more than another (in this case, Link or Cloud).

I don't quite follow. Why would joke voting vs. Tetris fanboyism affect the Link/Cloud Leeching proportion? Because Tetris fanboyism is more likely to leech votes from Link...?

I wouldn't be too sure about that, as the board vote/power tending to side with both Nintendo and joke characters is circumstantial evidence to believe there's an overlap there...combine that with FF7 having pretty much the polar opposite patterns as joke characters, and I get the gut impression that FF7 fans won't abandon their boys as readily for joke characters.

This is all heavily speculative no matter what, but I can't see L-Block hurting Cloud more, for instance.
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 9:58:33 PM | message detail
Looking at Mario, he fell about 5.52% from 10 minutes in until the end of the match. If Samus falls the same amount, she'd end up at 17.47%. Doesn't seem too out there to me.

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chaos knight | Posted 11/1/2007 9:59:03 PM | message detail
http://fc04.deviantart.com/images/i/2003/40/0/8/tatris_yaoi.jpg
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You know, if Microsoft were to stage a hostile takeover of EA...I'd actually cheer them on.
Tohoya | Posted 11/1/2007 9:59:14 PM | message detail
This year's X-stats are going to be epic.

Kirby > Solid Snake confirmed!
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:00:09 PM | message detail
It's like the Carrier from Starcraft. People would vote for it because "MASS CARRIERS = INSTANT WIN!" but the majority of the people who find that funny are Starcraft fans anyway.

Well yeah, it'd be pretty dumb to debate that L-Block would be doing anything like this if Tetris wasn't the most played game of all time by far.

If anybody actually needs this pointed out :) then just imagine a crash gem from Puzzle Fighter or "Yellow/Blue Pill" from Dr. Mario :) Yellow/Blue pill would get my vote, but it'd still be fodder.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:00:44 PM | message detail
Gogogo Link.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:01:16 PM | message detail
This year's X-stats are going to be epic.

More like, this year's x-stats are going to be a waste of time and effort ^_^ Sure hope I'm not the one that has to make them.
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 10:01:19 PM | message detail
Link's always gotta try to look good at the end of the power hour!

darn you link

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 10:01:21 PM | message detail
Yeah... Actually Samus is already getting 18% updates and we're not even out of the 1st hour. 17% is actually pretty likely >_>

On the other hand, that assumed Link would drop to 38%. But with those last 2 crazy updates, he might not go that low.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:02:57 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure anything named "Yellow Pill" would kick some ass (relatively speaking) in this format. I could easily see it getting through a round if it were in a favorable bracket position. "Yellow Pill" would have demolished Balthier's fourpack.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:03:01 PM | message detail
I think this is the best Link will look. The night will hurt him, and as I always say, the night is the most important time for long-term percentage stabilization.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:04:16 PM | message detail
Yellow Virus > Yellow Pill
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Lopen | Posted 11/1/2007 10:04:21 PM | message detail
Well yeah, it'd be pretty dumb to debate that L-Block would be doing anything like this if Tetris wasn't the most played game of all time by far.

And the majority of Tetris fans overlap when compared to FFVII, Zelda, Halo, or MGS?

Zelda for sure. Undoubtedly.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 10:04:33 PM | message detail
In his match against Sephiroth though, he actually ended higher than he was after the first hour. I don't know. I don't think he'll pull quite the same thing but I don't discount anything with the grand champion of the contest
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:06:13 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure anything named "Yellow Pill" would kick some ass (relatively speaking) in this format. I could easily see it getting through a round if it were in a favorable bracket position. "Yellow Pill" would have demolished Balthier's fourpack.

That's Yello/Blue pill buddy, get it right :) Yellow/Blue is a lot funnier..

As for kicking ass, I don't think so. It'd be much, much, weaker than Bidoof, for instance. Random Pokemon>Dr. Mario pill. The game that the joke comes from - and the joke's prominence within said game - matters more than anything else.

e.g., Shinra Soldier Hat would suck, because it has no prominence or importance in FF7.

I could potentially see Buster Sword being stronger than Bidoof though.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:06:40 PM | message detail
Honestly, while the recognizability of Tetris does give it a significant boost, I think a large part of it has to deal with voters getting a kick out of voting for anything so audacious.

Remember all the talk about "Random Piece of Final Fantasy VII Furniture" being in the contest? Yeah, in this format, I bet it would actually do well.
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 10:07:26 PM | message detail
The Buster Sword would rock Bidoof -- and rightfully so!

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Haste_2 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:08:11 PM | message detail
From 52% to 56% to getting an equal of nearly 60% and now it's nearly a doubling! Wow.

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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/1/2007 10:08:27 PM | message detail
There should be a weapons contest. Ebony & Ivory FTW.
creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:08:38 PM | message detail
In his match against Sephiroth though, he actually ended higher than he was after the first hour. I don't know. I don't think he'll pull quite the same thing but I don't discount anything with the grand champion of the contest

Cloud's day vote is better than Vincent's.

Or perhaps a better comparison, Cloud's day vote is slightly better than Sephiroth's, and Cloud here=Sephiroth from last match. And Sephiroth's day vote (or at least his non-early vote) is better than Vincent's (I think - correct me if I'm wrong), and Sephiroth is like Vincent here (though he'll have percentage, and thus be somewhat more relevant to the final percentages).
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Lopen | Posted 11/1/2007 10:09:23 PM | message detail
"Random Piece of Final Fantasy VII Furniture"

If that was true, the Midgar Zolom would've done better. I'd say it's almost as stupid as a random piece of furniture.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:09:25 PM | message detail
Link's Twilight Princess SPF must have kicked in since his last match!
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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:10:16 PM | message detail
Link's Twilight Princess SPF must have kicked in since his last match!

Close, it's MM SPF right now though....
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:10:16 PM | message detail
Remember all the talk about "Random Piece of Final Fantasy VII Furniture" being in the contest? Yeah, in this format, I bet it would actually do well.

No, it would do horrible.

Unless it was actually listed on the poll as "Random Piece of Final Fantasy VII Furniture", it which case it would get lots of votes just for the words "Final Fantasy VII" in there (and with the long-ass name factor, few would miss that)
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Seginustemple | Posted 11/1/2007 10:10:20 PM | message detail
I still think L-block has reached his max potential and he will drop off next round. This is just speculation, but I think there's a lot of voters who look at the poll with the preconception that their faves are safe and the tetris piece is somewhere in fourth. I mean, look at the prediction percentages for it, nobody thinks that it's real competition. So they assume it's losing, throw a vote it's way, and bam, they're freaking out because they just helped the damn L-block stay ahead of characters they probably prefer. I think L-block beating Snake is a pretty sobering poll result to see after you just voted. Once people start to realize that it's a monster, they're going to stop backing it so much. It's only a funny vote to cast until it starts hindering your favorite characters. And now that it beat Snake, people are starting to look upon it with disgust instead of lulz.

Or maybe I'm taking this all way too seriously?
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2007 10:11:14 PM | message detail
I hope Seph doesn't end up passing Samus anytime soon. I'd like to see her keep this pace up.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:11:40 PM | message detail
For instance "Final Fantasy 7 inn" would do a lot better than "Nibelheim inn" I think.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 10:12:00 PM | message detail
I understand the logic but I don't think it means much, with the severe SFF going on against Vincent and now Sephiroth, the whole day vote comparsion isn't so black and white.

Regardless, I don't think Link will change that drastically in trends. He's guaranteed at least 38% here IMO and 39% certainly isn't out of reach
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 10:12:33 PM | message detail
"Random Piece of Final Fantasy VII Furniture" would be stronger than Midgar Zolom or Shinra Soldier or whatever the hell it is. Once again, it's the sheer audacity of the entrant that will draw in the joke votes.

"Random Piece of Final Fantasy VII Furniture" or "Single Blade of Grass from Hyrule Field" would have won Balthier's fourpack. Poor, stupid Balthier.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 10:13:19 PM | message detail
Seginustemple, I think you're way over-thinking things.

Which I was going to say even before I read your last line, so it seems you do realize that :)
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