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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 542

YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:00:18 PM | message detail
Unless you're talking to an extremely hardcore fan like Karma Hunter or futuresuperstar, Snake is basically the biggest badass in the industry. No one outside of said fans remember his long codecs and speeches, but everyone remembers his general badassary. Isn't that Chief in a nutshell?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:00:40 PM | message detail
Chief's one of the few that actually has an "ASV" on the weekend. there's definitely a shift there.
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:01:58 PM | message detail
Speaking of these guys, is there a more interesting opponent for L-Block next year than Master Chief?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:02:12 PM | message detail
450 posts and no new topic? What madness is this?

I'd do it but I probably dont post in here often enough to merit it.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:02:17 PM | message detail
Unless you're talking to an extremely hardcore fan like Karma Hunter or futuresuperstar, Snake is basically the biggest badass in the industry. No one outside of said fans remember his long codecs and speeches, but everyone remembers his general badassary. Isn't that Chief in a nutshell?

well, how far does this reach? Vincent? Kratos? uhh Zero? (does he count here?) HK-47?

I mean, I'm just making up names here. you might as well call Snake nonlinear (which I believe to some extent, by the way)

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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:02:43 PM | message detail
Link.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:03:42 PM | message detail
*still stands by Tetris/Halo being epic*

nobody cares who makes the next topic, go ahead

heck, I'd rather you waited til 490 or something
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:04:47 PM | message detail
No idea, but hopefully tonight will shed some answers on that. If Chief bombs, I'll probably attribute it to a combination of L-Block and Snake (more L-Block), assuming they stay relatively equal again.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:05:35 PM | message detail
yeah, tomorrow will be an eye-opener - MC's biggest test. I'm really curious to see what he can pull.
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:05:51 PM | message detail
Unless you're talking to an extremely hardcore fan like Karma Hunter or futuresuperstar, Snake is basically the biggest badass in the industry. No one outside of said fans remember his long codecs and speeches, but everyone remembers his general badassary. Isn't that Chief in a nutshell?

More like Dante in a nutshell.

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hungry like the wolf
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:06:27 PM | message detail
Time . | Cloud . .| Samus .| Link . . . | Sephiroth
01:00 | 26.71% | 20.72% | 39.25% | 13.32%
02:00 | 28.57% | 17.77% | 38.75% | 14.91%
03:00 | 28.50% | 18.11% | 37.56% | 15.83%
04:00 | 30.62% | 16.79% | 36.55% | 16.04%
05:00 | 31.98% | 15.87% | 34.98% | 17.18%
06:00 | 31.94% | 16.57% | 35.37% | 16.11%
07:00 | 28.51% | 16.53% | 39.52% | 15.44%
08:00 | 27.25% | 16.67% | 40.30% | 15.78%
09:00 | 27.68% | 16.46% | 40.03% | 15.82%
10:00 | 28.51% | 16.95% | 40.02% | 14.51%
11:00 | 28.54% | 16.52% | 38.66% | 16.29%
12:00 | 29.09% | 16.19% | 38.36% | 16.36%
13:00 | 27.96% | 16.18% | 39.78% | 16.08%
14:00 | 28.26% | 15.94% | 39.62% | 16.17%
15:00 | 28.13% | 15.82% | 40.02% | 16.03%
16:00 | 28.53% | 16.51% | 39.76% | 15.20%
17:00 | 27.72% | 16.20% | 40.82% | 15.26%

Kinda weird that there wasn't really an afterschool shift today. Only Samus and Sephiroth seemed affected, and not by much.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2007 2:06:31 PM | message detail
Dante is fo sho looking like garbage tomorrow.
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ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 2:08:54 PM | message detail
I still think this whole idea that Snake "SFFs" badass characters is pretty overrated with next to no basis. How do you even define who is and is not badass enough to get SFFed? I think it's a pretty ridiculous idea.

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:10:25 PM | message detail
Lopen is badass enough to get SFF'd, as is Moltar.

Sissy women like HM and KH are no where badass enough to get SFF'd.

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swirIdude | Posted 11/2/2007 2:10:30 PM | message detail
Kratos didn't seem to enjoy being in a poll with Snake!
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trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:11:34 PM | message detail
yeah, Kratos I can at least understand.. but I think a lot of that was simply running into strength as opposed to "SFF". what does Kratos/Snake project out to be, anyway?
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:12:51 PM | message detail
Depends where you think Kratos is after GoW2.

...and more where you think Kratos is after GoW doubling it's sales (since I know you don't like MM from last year).

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hungry like the wolf
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:13:31 PM | message detail
Unless you mean what did their match this contest project them to be, in which case I have no idea, because I haven't been interested enough to figure out how it's done.

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swirIdude | Posted 11/2/2007 2:13:48 PM | message detail
If you use only the votals from this contest, Kratos got 39.19% against Solid Snake.
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ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 2:15:25 PM | message detail
sir i am the badass of the badass the manliest men among men do not tempt me i will fight you


Kratos didn't seem to enjoy being in a poll with Snake!

I figured that would happen -- but not because of "badass SFF." Snake and Kratos are big "Sony" stars -- or at least PlayStation -- and there being overlap there as a result isn't too farfetched, not any more than characters who share Nintendo platforms (Mega Man comes to mind).

But Snake SFFing Master Chief? Vincent? I wouldn't buy that for a second. It's not even concrete that Snake SFFed Squall. That said, there being some overlap with Dante wouldn't be surprising, but moreso for the PlayStation bit than the whole "whoa two badass characters snake gets my vote though."

'Badass' is so broad that many characters can fit under it.

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:15:43 PM | message detail
what's wrong with that?

Luigi (2006c) VS Snake (2006c)

Luigi has a strength of 30.81.
Snake has a strength of 43.00.

Snake wins with 64.17% of the vote!
A win of 36,734 with 129,577 total votes cast.
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:16:06 PM | message detail
what are you going to fight me with rainbows and puppies

look how scared i am im wetting myself
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ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 2:19:47 PM | message detail
the most badass, hardcore rainbows and puppies you have ever seen

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 2:20:35 PM | message detail
No kidding it's a huge difference... I was exaggerating for effect.

You calling it a dumb post was very unnecessary, you shouldn't have said that. It wasn't even close to being dumb.

And he was right, Chief's last two rounds have been nothing special. They were definitely very good, much better than old Chief/old format Chief, but not really Nobel Nine level I think. Now that's certainly an unfair standard, but not compared to what you seem to be expecting from him.

But MC has shown to have somewhat of a voter floor, or at least "hardcore" fanbase from his 1v1 matches. His overperforming against strong characters, and constant disappointment against those thought to be weaker show this.

This has never happened. A freakin' 2 point overperformance on Crono is pretty much the only real evidence for this ever :) And that was more likely the picture, though it's unprovable.

It's the entire concept behind L's hardcore fanbase as well.

Except there's reason to believe L may be the first such character we've ever seen. (by "hardcore" I'm assuming you mean loyal/static)

For instance, everybody's textbook example for static fanbase is CATS, despite never, ever, not once, displaying any such propensity. That is of course the *Ultimate* contest Zombie myth. But Chief having this mythical tra-la-la static fanbase is another big one.

Also, there's the pic factor for L to consider - plenty of reasons to believe L has a static/loyal fanbase, but logically it makes sense for him to be by far the most pic-sensitive entrant of all time. But L-block is the only character where the data implies staticness, and there's actually quite a bit of it in his case.

but to say he hasn't shown it is just silly.

Seriously, honestly, to say that he ever has is what is what totally lacks credibility.

Chief has SFF/LFF independence. He has never even remotely shown any static tendencies (again, outside of that trivial 2 point overperformance on Crono - we see greater anomalies that than in like 25% of all matches!)


Master Chief outperforming Sonic by 3.5% doesn't sound all that reasonable to me.

Except, as n00b said, you're replacing Squall with Dante.

Also unlike Squall, Dante will probably suffer weakest character factor. He could be absolutely pathetic here. That's a lot of percentage to go around.

Chief getting 25% would not be shocking at all. In fact that's about where I expect him.

I could see him getting 27% without being surprised, which wouldn't put him far out of contention from L-Block's 28%-30%. And L-Block could underperform that for whatever wacky reason. Chief placing would not be a miracle...but it sure would be a big surprise.


L-Block outperforming Sonic by 3.5% didn't sound reasonable at one point either. Let alone 7.5.

7.5 is great, I would certainly not have thought that, but I wouldn't have thought 3.5% was unreasonable. Unless you're talking about last week or something. Before that match L-Block winning over Sonic by a few points was certainly within the realm of likely and foreseeable outcomes. L-Block>Snake was not.
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Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 2:20:40 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 2:23:09 PM | message detail
Tomorrow will go L-Block>Snake.

The PS2 fanboys will be split 75-25 between Snake and Dante, in favor of Snake. Nintendo fanboys will go about 20% Snake and 80% L-Block. Master Chief will get the Microsoft vote. So Master Chief will beat Dante. But it won't matter, because they'll both lose to Snake, who will lose to L-Block.

L-Block 37%
Snake 35%
Master Chief 17%
Dante 11%

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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:24:20 PM | message detail
..it was a stupid post. a horribly stupid post. i'm not going to argue about it. basing a characters strength off of his low point in a match is not a good post, it's awful. stop it. please.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:27:50 PM | message detail
Also, I'd like to ask, what does MC's last match with Dante project him to get on him 1v1?

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hungry like the wolf
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:28:21 PM | message detail
L-Block with 37% is far stupider. :)

actually, I forgot that it was Sprite Snake, so I guess we have to compare it to Yoshi's 43%.. but really, how far off is that?
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:28:48 PM | message detail
tranny who are you talking to this is driving me crazy
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hungry like the wolf
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:29:43 PM | message detail
myself, mostly. just saying that Kratos's performance on Snake was not something egregious.
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2007 2:30:43 PM | message detail
oh yeah, I agree. I thought you were talking to someone I had blocked, but then I couldn't figure out who I'd block and you wouldn't and then I cried.

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hungry like the wolf
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 2:37:29 PM | message detail
There's no ASV tomorrow, CN...

Whoops :)

So then actually Chief's deficit is a lot less likely to be 7K by the time he starts picking up the pace.


*still stands by Tetris/Halo being epic*

You know, I could well see that. You talked about this before? I'd be interested in that discussion.


Kinda weird that there wasn't really an afterschool shift today. Only Samus and Sephiroth seemed affected, and not by much.

I was expecting some sort of shift, probably Link>Cloud>Sephiroth=Samus. But I wouldn't call it weird there wasn't one. The one thing I would've expected is Sephiroth dropping off compared to Link, which did seem to happen. But overall more stable than I and most would've thought, yeah. I wonder if the night will also be more stable than expected, or if FF7 will benefit slightly more from that than Nintendo did from the ASV.


I still think this whole idea that Snake "SFFs" badass characters is pretty overrated with next to no basis. How do you even define who is and is not badass enough to get SFFed? I think it's a pretty ridiculous idea.

Usually they define it after-the-fact to support their theory :)

Though actually I could see this notion being true more than most such notions.I wouldn't dismiss it, even though we have no real evidence.

I think people in this format though confuse SFF with non-linearity; lower ranked characters will tend to look crappy.

But Snake SFFing Master Chief? Vincent? I wouldn't buy that for a second.

Well you're right here, if that's your point then it's not even arguable. Just because someone is badass (ala Vincent) doesn't mean Snake SFFs them.

There are certain characters you get a gut sense with though, Like Snake/Hayabusa and Snake/Kratos. Though that's not really reliable. And like you said, Snake/Kratos has console reasons. And even there there's no real reason to believe Kratos performed strangely, I'm not sure where people are getting that from.

It's not even concrete that Snake SFFed Squall.

Actually it's quite concrete to say he didn't. High vote totals, Snake very high compared to Sonic implies no LFF hurting him, Squall close to Sonic implies no LFF hurting him, Squall did great against Snake last time, etc. It's actually as completely open-and-shut as anything contest-related ever is. There's as much reason to believe in SFF/LFF between any two random characters as between these two guys - more actually, because at least between two random characters unknown/unexpected things could happen. Nothing unexpected has ever happened between these two.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2007 2:39:26 PM | message detail
You know, I could well see that. You talked about this before? I'd be interested in that discussion.

I just mention it occasionally. no real discussion, just an opinion I have that the match could be wild.
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
creativename | Posted 11/2/2007 2:41:52 PM | message detail
..it was a stupid post. a horribly stupid post. i'm not going to argue about it. basing a characters strength off of his low point in a match is not a good post, it's awful. stop it. please.

What in the world man? "Stop it", are you ****ing kidding me?

It wasn't even dumb, not you're all like "horribly stupid"...seriously, it wasn't dumb at all, his point was obvious and sensible, let it go. He was not basing Chief off his lowest point at all. (just prior to ASV isn't even Chief's lowest point anyway, but that's beside the point)
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2007 2:56:45 PM | message detail
Halo/Tetris would be a fun match, if nothing else. I'd take Halo rather confidently for a match that wouldn't be a blow-out, but the discussion and chance of a big upset would be wonderful.
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ZFS | Posted 11/2/2007 2:59:53 PM | message detail
Actually it's quite concrete to say he didn't. High vote totals, Snake very high compared to Sonic implies no LFF hurting him, Squall close to Sonic implies no LFF hurting him, Squall did great against Snake last time, etc. It's actually as completely open-and-shut as anything contest-related ever is.

Yeah, I agree. I don't think there was much of anything between Snake/Squall, be it last year or this.

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Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:01:47 PM | message detail
spam to 500!
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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:11:03 PM | message detail
Yeah!
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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:12:40 PM | message detail
Who thinks Link will break 40%
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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:15:28 PM | message detail
bump
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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
Heroic Yuna | Posted 11/2/2007 3:17:07 PM | message detail
Pondos, might I ask a favour of you?
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Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:17:44 PM | message detail
What?
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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
Zolt3 | Posted 11/2/2007 3:20:28 PM | message detail
lol spammer
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Heroic Yuna | Posted 11/2/2007 3:21:01 PM | message detail
Stop posting. Thanks! ^_^
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2007 3:21:27 PM | message detail
We need to get to the next match right now
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Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:21:55 PM | message detail
No, I like posting. You stop posting person I don't know.
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Yo, stop calling L-Block an inanimate object. Sonic, Squall, and Snake don't even move unless you help them along. L-Block moves on his own. -Bolt Thrower
Pondos | Posted 11/2/2007 3:22:08 PM | message detail
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Merc25 | Posted 11/2/2007 3:22:40 PM | message detail
What was the most boring match of this contest?

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Nepots | Posted 11/2/2007 3:22:49 PM | message detail
Oy.
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