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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 541

creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 7:06:20 PM | message detail
Actually, I was going to say that Snake looked like Superman early in this contest, and Superman's arch-nemesis is...Lex Luthor

dun dun dunnn
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:12:21 PM | message detail
Match LXI: Cloud Strife vs Samus Aran vs Link vs Sephiroth

Past Matches

Round 4

Cloud Strife - 41.23%
Samus Aran - 28.80%
Mega Man - 18.43%
Ryu - 11.54%

Link - 36.42%
Sephiroth - 31.48%
Mario - 22.24%
Vincent Valentine - 9.85%

Analysis

Despite the strong competition Cloud was still able to break 40% last round and Samus was able 25% both impressive of them. However that left with Mega Man and Ryu with not too much percent to play with. Link on the other hand didn’t perform as well as most people expected him to though that may have been because Mario did much better than most people expected, I’m still laughing at the people who thought Vincent would be able to defeat him.

Link is the favorite to take first in this match, like last round he has a Nintendo character to contend with while his opponent has a Square character to contend though this time Link gets to go against the strongest Square character. However Samus will probably be taking fewer votes off of Link than Mario because she’ll be getting a lower percent though if we remember from last year Link did take almost all of Samus’ votes so there is a slight chance that Samus could hurt Link more than Mario did.

Whether you believe Cloud could defeat Link or not you pretty much have to agree that it’ll be extremely unlikely for him to do it this round with Sephiroth leeching many of his votes. The only way I can see Cloud doing the impossible this round is to treat Sephiroth like he treated Vincent last round and for Samus to steal a significant amount of votes from Link causing him to lose. If he does however keep close with Link an upset may happen in two matches and with the L-Block always getting about 29% of the votes Link may not even get second.

Sephiroth had the joy of treating Vincent like fodder though this match he’ll be getting a taste of his own medicine. He won’t end up looking as bad as Vincent, but he won’t look nearly as strong as he’s supposed to be. Sephiroth will still get a good chunk of the votes and defiantly won’t let Samus anywhere near him especially with Link around.

Samus will get last in this poll and the only thing she’ll accomplish is taking away votes from Link and even then she did a bad job back during the Battle Royal. However like Mario last round I think Samus will do much better in relation to Link compare to the Battle Royal. Last year Link and Twilight Princess was the most hyped thing on GameFAQs though now TP isn’t as huge plus many people are excited about Metroid Prime 3. If she still takes almost 100% of Link’s votes he could be trouble though.

Link in first while Cloud takes second, with these four characters this may be the most voted on match so far which the first match still happens to hold the record for. Though this maybe the stronger match I think we can all agree that the second match of this round is much more hyped thanks to the L-Block.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Link > Cloud Strife

charmander6000’s Prediction: Link - 36.26%, Cloud - 30.84%, Sephiroth - 20.27%, Samus - 12.63%

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Match 60: Solid Snake > Sonic the Hedgehog Points: 309/480
hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:14:27 PM | message detail
Charmader, you do realize that if Cloud + Seph = 50%, Link is in serious trouble?
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 7:20:19 PM | message detail
It's be funny if L-Block led almost 24 hours and then Snake won with a Liquid vs. Alucard like rally.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:20:49 PM | message detail
Funny, but nearly impossible. Board 8 won't let L-Block lose.
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BDawg | Posted 11/1/2007 7:20:55 PM | message detail
Oh no Snake, I ain't falling for yet another one of your feints for the lead.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:21:18 PM | message detail
It's be funny if L-Block led almost 24 hours and then Snake won with a Liquid vs. Alucard like rally.

You speak the english? >_>. That's what I'm banking on though
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:21:31 PM | message detail
That last 2 hour Snake comeback seems to be right on schedule
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This story is not an end yet.
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chaosarcher07 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:21:46 PM | message detail
Samus + Metroid always gets crushed HARD by stronger Nintendo characters anyway, so even if Cloud + Seph is > 50%, they should split much more evenly than Samus and Link, and Link shouldn't have much trouble.

Unless you mean Link will have trouble next round, which could be true.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:23:24 PM | message detail
Snake doesn't have two hours. He has about forty minutes to absolutely crush L-Block. If his supporters sense any danger, they'll rally immediately.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:23:37 PM | message detail
Samus has never been crushed by a stronger Nintendo character. Ever. (Suck it Mario!)

Seriously though, the only person who has ever been able to significantly SFF Samus was Mario, so I don't know what you're talking about.

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BDawg | Posted 11/1/2007 7:23:40 PM | message detail
Also, I think it's funny that it's just assumed that if it got close L-block would get stuffed AND bacon would do nothing about it. Not that I can dispute any of those things.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:24:07 PM | message detail
One cut is a blip in the radar
Two cuts is a sign
Three cuts is aww yeah L-Block is so screwed
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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:25:19 PM | message detail
You guys seem so sure that L-Block has some amazing last minute rally. I for one am not convinced of this. What I am convinced of is that Solid Snake has a good late rally (Hello Snake/Sephiroth... and even Liquid/Alucard)

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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:26:44 PM | message detail
Look at the board. Most people are thrilled with this result, and it's against the least hated Noble Niner of all. Snake can't make up 300+ votes AND an L-Block rally in 90 minutes. Impossible.
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greatone10 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:26:51 PM | message detail
Well, he better start soon, because the people who would normally get behind him don't want to see him win this time.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:26:58 PM | message detail
It's possible that Samus sucked so bad in the Battle Royal mostly due to Mario's presence rather than Link's. I mean, we never did see her perform there without Mario. And the one time she did face Link, she didn't exactly disappoint
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2007 7:26:59 PM | message detail
well, here comes the night vote. time to see if L can hold on for dear life.. or if rallying will put this out of hand.
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:27:57 PM | message detail
An L-Block stall. That could be the nail in the PS3's coffin
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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:28:25 PM | message detail
I don't think "most people" are happy. Ever hear of the silent majority? Well, it was back in the 70s and 80s. The hippies were the loud, active people but they couldn't accomplish much thanks to the silent majority (voting for Nixon for example.) L-Block fans = hippies, Silent majority = Regular people
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:28:26 PM | message detail
4 in a row me--- ...to kick your ass

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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:28:34 PM | message detail
And no, this is not a jinx; it's common sense. Frog could barely do it, and that was with massive rallying and an opponent no one cared to rally for. Snake will finish second, regroup, and go for first next time.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 7:28:46 PM | message detail
My fear for the next match is a Sephiroth collapse. I'm hoping he holds up well.

But I have a fear that he's gonna get same-game SFFed a lot worse than Samus get Nintendo-SFFed.

Funny, but nearly impossible. Board 8 won't let L-Block lose.

L-Block has lots of rally potential, but we've already seen MGS' rallying abilities. Also there's brackets.

Snake getting 2nd here would actually probably be the most bracket-important thing we've seen so far, come to think of it. So bracket rallying is possible. Note though that it means that those people who get the most points here will get hurt a lot later on, if it means they have Sonic>Snake next round as well. But someone with Sonic>Snake here and Snake>Sonic next round would be in perfect position to take advantage - Snake/Squall LFF-based brackets for the win :)


You speak the english? >_>.

What?
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chocoboslayer | Posted 11/1/2007 7:29:37 PM | message detail
.....wtf.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2007 7:30:36 PM | message detail
aw yeah sonic > snake and snake > sonic bracket here

too bad it's completely destroyed

I feel really awful for Moltar - he shouldn't go down on a scoring technicality over a tetris block. :)
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"The idea of rallying for Solid Snake against a Tetris block is both disgusting and necessary. *goes*" -Karma Hunter
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:30:54 PM | message detail
brackets don't mean anything... there's all of what, 3 brackets that are going to die from today's result? and maybe 10 from leaderboard potential. it shouldn't even be considered a factor.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:31:27 PM | message detail
Moltar deserves to win the Guru. Does this result eliminate him?
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greatone10 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:31:44 PM | message detail
Yes it does.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs.
hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:32:12 PM | message detail
If L-lock wins, Moltar is eliminated. (Not me though. lolz)

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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:32:19 PM | message detail
Wow. That's kind of bull****, to be bluntly honest.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 7:32:24 PM | message detail
L-Block fans = hippies

Whoa whoa whoa. This is a MASSIVE insult, take it back!! Please do not demean L-Block fans to such a horrible extent, it's very unfair :(
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:32:53 PM | message detail
i'm a hippie and i hate the block (aside from today, aww yeah)
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 7:33:40 PM | message detail
I doubt Sephiroth gets hit harder than Samus. That'd be surprising to me -- he's not one to take a SFF beating. If anything, I'd expect Sephiroth to be detrimental to Cloud's chances of coming close to Link.



And, man, L-Block doesn't look like he's budged much the last time I checked the poll. Crazy how a Tetris piece is going to be Solid Snake!


(noble nine is so screwed)

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:33:47 PM | message detail
Charmader, you do realize that if Cloud + Seph = 50%, Link is in serious trouble?

I'm expecting Cloud + Sephiroth > Link + Samus
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Match 60: Solid Snake > Sonic the Hedgehog Points: 309/480
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2007 7:34:47 PM | message detail
i'm a hippie and I love the Block

*Goes to play more Metroid Prime 3 on Veteran's Mode to increase Samus' percentage in the next matchup*

She needs all the help she can get!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:38:08 PM | message detail
Well, I'd say L-Block made it official with that last one
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This story is not an end yet.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:39:16 PM | message detail
Frog didn't start his comeback until 1 hour before the end. Alucard was similar. I'll call the match 50 minutes before the end (If Snake has made no progress)

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:42:13 PM | message detail
In all the hype surrounding L-Block, I completely forgot to pay attention to next round's pictures. Has anyone posted them yet?
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Because only you are in the infinity loop.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:43:07 PM | message detail
yes
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:43:09 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Merc25 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:43:26 PM | message detail
I expect Sephiroth to fold in more ways than paper to Cloud, and similar scenario for Samus to Link. But then again this my first Contest that I actually paid attention to, so if Samus holds up 15-25% it's just that many more votes Link will get in the final match thus cementing his contest win.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:43:49 PM | message detail
I didn't see them in this topic though. Oh well
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:44:07 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-1.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-2.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-3.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-4.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-5.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-6.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-7.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-8.jpg

VICTORY IS MINE NOOB, TRICKERATION

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2007 7:44:15 PM | message detail
ARGH YOU BASTARD
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This story is not an end yet.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2007 7:45:14 PM | message detail
those pics are sooo tight
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/1/2007 7:46:02 PM | message detail
Those aren't very impressive.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2007 7:46:07 PM | message detail
that first pic is made of win and awesome
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FFDragon | Posted 11/1/2007 7:47:09 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-61-1.jpg

Oh wow. That may be one of my favorite pictures ever.
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creativename | Posted 11/1/2007 7:47:29 PM | message detail
Awww no fun themes :(

6 is my favorite though.
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ZFS | Posted 11/1/2007 7:47:33 PM | message detail
I love that first pic.


(CLOUD > LINK BELIEVE)

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