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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 540

MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/31/2007 9:59:05 PM | message detail
L Block was obviously slowing down at this point last match and yet here hes still getting 100 vote gains. Saying that he's guaranteed to lose this is a mistake.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2007 9:59:11 PM | message detail
I think L-Block actually has a good chance to hold onto the lead here. He only fell 9% or so from here to the end relative to Snake last round, and the gap is bigger that that right now.

As for Sonic, he could only bring Snake's percentage from 58% to 55% last year. He's finished. And he just lost 2 updates in a row to Squall.
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2007 9:59:27 PM | message detail
Come to think of it this would be ten times more hilarious if crono didn't already lose.

Heh :) Funny thing is, this will give people the perfect reason (excuse?) to keep sticking with the "Noble Nine" concept. They'll use it as a way to dismiss Vincent's win by way of dismissing the whole contest - even though I think most here would agree that Vincent takes Crono 1-on-1 anyway.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2007 9:59:34 PM | message detail
Dante hurts Snake, MC's strong 30 hold.

MC > L-Block confirmed

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hungry like the wolf
Zamza | Posted 10/31/2007 9:59:44 PM | message detail
We're only 500 over Cloud/Marcus/Auron/Ryu, for example.

That's still 500 ahead of a big vote draw, and it doesn't change the fact that it is Halloween. I'm not saying it's needing stuffing to win, but it's definitely happening.
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paraboxx | Posted 10/31/2007 10:00:07 PM | message detail
If you're comparing votals with earlier matches (I did), use earlier matches.

....

it's excitement over l-block
that's what it is
shut up
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/31/2007 10:00:24 PM | message detail
L should follow more or less the same pattern - pulling in 30% with the night and 26% with the day, ending around 29% - but Snake has to start his run from 26% rather than 30%. This match isn't quite over yet. :)

It isn't over, but it's now a two way race between snake and L, with sonic struggling to maintain a little dignity and stay ahead of squall.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/31/2007 10:00:43 PM | message detail
27/31.5 no no that's too close don't let Snake do that well on you Mr. L
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:01:01 PM | message detail
Squall cut into Sonic three times in a row now.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2007 10:01:19 PM | message detail
Vincent/Crono is damn close 1v1 (as it was here), I wouldn't give anyone a hard time for taking Crono in a 1v1, it really is a coinflip.

God what a terrible update to go to bed on...

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MultipleOrgasms | Posted 10/31/2007 10:01:19 PM | message detail
You know, I think Link/Cloud/MC/L-Block would be some pretty goddamn good conditions for Cloud to win.
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2007 10:01:25 PM | message detail
Seriously, isn't this site really polarized in terms of Cloud or Link, as in, your soul belongs to one of these two? L-Block doesn't have a chance of leading for more than a couple of minutes with these favorites in the poll ( whoever is 4th is pretty much arbitrary)

I largely agree, because I think pictures are a big part of his strength.

If it was loyalty, L would lead the finals for a very, very long time.

But I think L-Block is at his strongest right now, and he won't be able to manage to lead Link and Cloud too long. I think he'll lead for under an hour there, myself.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/31/2007 10:01:33 PM | message detail
You know what? I dare say it, but L-Block's day-vote is going to be much better tomorrow/today than his past matches...despite Sonic, Solid looking like he should, and a KH1/2-supported Squall. His classic pictures make him far more nostalgia-inspiring, and I think many more kids will get the joke and will buy into it enough to vote for it and show some support...

...I call it the Hot Topic Factor -- it's an old-school video game icon that is making high-schoolers enjoy life again compared to, of course, their emo-based sadness that haunts them every day. Put L-Block on a t-shirt and add the slogan "Shaped like an L to kick your ass," and it will sell the **** out there.



L-Block is winning because of its potential to be the greatest thing Hot Topic ever sells.
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ZFS | Posted 10/31/2007 10:02:14 PM | message detail
You shouldn't worry about that one. Master Chief isn't making the finals.

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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/31/2007 10:02:21 PM | message detail
That's still 500 ahead of a big vote draw, and it doesn't change the fact that it is Halloween. I'm not saying it's needing stuffing to win, but it's definitely happening.

Wait, why would it being halloween reduce the votals?
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2007 10:02:30 PM | message detail
L should follow more or less the same pattern - pulling in 30% with the night and 26% with the day, ending around 29% - but Snake has to start his run from 26% rather than 30%. This match isn't quite over yet. :)

L will drop more than he did last match. The competition is tougher. And the early vote is more loyal/static.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:02:55 PM | message detail
when was snake's first cut last round?

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:03:03 PM | message detail
They'll use it as a way to dismiss Vincent's win by way of dismissing the whole contest - even though I think most here would agree that Vincent takes Crono 1-on-1 anyway.

I don't think anyone should "dismiss" Vincent's win. Noble Nine or not, I think we're all in agreement that he'd give Crono hell in a straight match, and, like you said, I'm assuming most would take him to win. However, I simply don't think the Noble Nine should be dissolved based on a contest like this. It makes little sense.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2007 10:03:39 PM | message detail
I guess I'll be bold and say it:

I think L's got first place here.
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/31/2007 10:03:44 PM | message detail
even though I think most here would agree that Vincent takes Crono 1-on-1 anyway.

i hope you realise though that that match was heavily lopsided towards Vincent.he came from Zelda enemy number one so Link wasn't stealing much from him,not to mention he was the ONLY playstation character in the match.he was the "different" one.Zero,Link and Crono all have reasons to share some fanbase,while Vincent has absolutely NONE to share ANY with any of those.


I'd even say Crono looked better than Sonic this year,seeing as Sonic beat Squall by only like 2% in a match that favored HIM(Sora in the poll).
BenReillysClone | Posted 10/31/2007 10:03:46 PM | message detail
How big would L-Block's lead over Snake have to be in order for L-Block to be a "guaranteed win"?

2,000? 3,000? 4,000?

It's almost 1,500 now.
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/31/2007 10:04:15 PM | message detail
when was snakes first cut last round?

0:50:00
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Zamza | Posted 10/31/2007 10:05:28 PM | message detail
Less people are home to vote on Halloween. Only 1/10 of potential voters need to be having something better to do tonight for vote totals to look that much more suspect. Doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I dunno, have we ever had a match on Halloween?
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2007 10:05:30 PM | message detail
Hey, L-Block always had a chance to get first here. Don't listen to creativename he's a big negative meanie weanie.

He says to the guy who's had more faith in L-Block than just about anyone else :0)


Seeing as he'll be facing weaker guys while probably maintaining a similar percentage, he probably won't look as impressive, but he'll still have no trouble taking care of Chief and Dante. The next round is pretty much in the bag for Snake and L-Block.

I agree. It's not a total lock by any means, but L has to be the big favorite for 2nd.

Also, Dante will look like crap.
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marioinblack | Posted 10/31/2007 10:05:52 PM | message detail
Noble Nine broken by Vincent and.........L-Block............

This is the best contest ever!

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Keno316 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:05:55 PM | message detail
Nothing but Squall cuts now.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2007 10:06:03 PM | message detail
well, this was L's biggest lead against Snake before falling apart last round.. and he just took an update by 66 votes.
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"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Janus5000 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:06:20 PM | message detail
HERE I AM
BLOCK YOU LIKE A HURRICANE
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chaos knight | Posted 10/31/2007 10:06:26 PM | message detail
Best result next round: L > Master Chief
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BDawg | Posted 10/31/2007 10:06:42 PM | message detail
Lol I'm still 20th after Ganon>Chief and now I'm gonna kicked in the balls by the Sonic>Snake pickers courtesy of L-block? Sometimes, dead bracket is better.
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EvilPrinny | Posted 10/31/2007 10:06:53 PM | message detail
L Block only had a 600 vote lead at most over Snake last round... and Snakes cuts started 15 minutes ago last round. I think L Block is waay more serious this time.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/31/2007 10:07:03 PM | message detail
Vote totals normally go up with every round. I don't see how this is irregular.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:07:32 PM | message detail
How much did Snake beat L-Block by again?
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/31/2007 10:07:57 PM | message detail
HERE I AM
BLOCK YOU LIKE A HURRICANE


I, WANNA BLOCK AND ROLL ALL NIIIIIIIIIGHT
AND PARTY EVERY DAY
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:08:06 PM | message detail
L will drop more than he did last match. The competition is tougher. And the early vote is more loyal/static.

I'm not sure I buy that. He's gotten 26% during the day the last two matches despite having pretty strong day vote characters in each - this is actually a step down in that regard if you ask me.
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EvilPrinny | Posted 10/31/2007 10:08:20 PM | message detail
How much did Snake beat L-Block by again?

about 5500
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:08:22 PM | message detail
janus <3
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2007 10:09:13 PM | message detail
Noble Nine broken by Vincent and.........L-Block............

This is the best contest ever!


Noble Nine+Vincent+L-Block=11 characters.

11 is upside L!

Electric Eleven. Destiny.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:09:25 PM | message detail
Honestly I'd take both Squall and Vincent over Sonic one-on-one right now. (Squall's just cut 4 updates in a row, he has an outside chance of taking 3rd today, even). As for Crono.....I've thought for a long time that Crono has a strong overlap with SNES characters, so I'd still take him over Vincent one-on-one. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if Vincent won.
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greatone10 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:09:59 PM | message detail
The best part about this is that anyone who actually would have picked L-Block to advance here would have been absolutely appalled to see Kirby/L-Block/Laharl/Hale. There was never any indication this would happen until the third round.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2007 10:10:40 PM | message detail
That song's called "I Wanna Block Your Body" and then in parenthesis it'll say "Until the Break of Dawn".
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Snake/L-Block/Sonic/Squall - Bracket: Snake > Sonic - Vote: Snake (391/492)
wavedash101 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:10:48 PM | message detail
i c wut u did ther cn hohoho excellent
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LShaped Tetris Block | Posted 10/31/2007 10:10:54 PM | message detail
WHAT NOW?
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Keno316 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:03 PM | message detail
DAMNIT! Sonic just took back all of Squall's hard work!
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EvilPrinny | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:04 PM | message detail
only a 14 vote gain =\
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:05 PM | message detail
I agree with the latter part of your post, red sox. I'd take Crono over Vincent right now. However, and I think HaRRicH touched on this a while ago, I'm not sure if I'd do so after another year of obscurity for Crono.
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BenReillysClone | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:15 PM | message detail
So Snake swung about 6,100 votes in the last round (down 600 to up 5,500).

L-Block's already more than doubled his largest lead of the last round. It looks like L-Block's going to get 2nd at the very least. If L-Block manages to extend his lead to 3,000, I'd say it's safe to call him the winner of this round.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:34 PM | message detail
UH-OH

Only a 14 vote gain!
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:40 PM | message detail
sonic got everyone on that update

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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/31/2007 10:11:47 PM | message detail
Less people are home to vote on Halloween. Only 1/10 of potential voters need to be having something better to do tonight for vote totals to look that much more suspect. Doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I dunno, have we ever had a match on Halloween?

It's a weekday, so not many people are going to be out as late getting drunk or whatever if that's what you're implying.

Honestly I hate to say this, but there's probably more kids who trick or treat visiting the site then college students. >_>
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