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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 537

Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 10:31:41 AM | message detail
oh well we all know samus is stronger indirectly so whatev
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Mega Man/Cloud/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Samus - Vote: Samus (311/396)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 10:32:37 AM | message detail
amen
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 10:35:15 AM | message detail
Cloud is still increasing his percentage at an absolutely alarming rate. Samus is slipping.If you removed MM and Ryu, what would Cloud have on Samus right now?
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 10:36:23 AM | message detail
467%
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hungry like the wolf
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 10:37:17 AM | message detail
Well, since we know Mega Man and Ryu draw their strength primarily from Nintendo (woo Link/MM and Bowser/Ryu), I can say with confidence that Samus would blow out Cloud 1 on 1 (Ulti-style).
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Mega Man/Cloud/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Samus - Vote: Samus (311/396)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 10:37:26 AM | message detail
Seriously, though, at least like 89 or 90 percent.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 10:37:43 AM | message detail
ulti style is at least a doubling, right
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
BDawg | Posted 10/29/2007 10:55:45 AM | message detail
Personally, I'm gonna take tomorrow as a referendum on Nintendo vs. FFVII. Now yes, I'm aware that Cloud is stronger than the other two. But really, how many more votes can he squeeze out when they won't vote for either Sephiroth or Vincent? And clearly Nintendo is gonna be maxing their output with Link and Mario. So I say just add them together, and if FFVII ends up with 45% or more than make Cloud the favorite. If it's less than 40% then I say it's done. Obviously the middle ground means it's as up in the air as ever.
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Should I start running now?
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 11:06:16 AM | message detail
So I say just add them together, and if FFVII ends up with 45% or more than make Cloud the favorite. If it's less than 40% then I say it's done. Obviously the middle ground means it's as up in the air as ever.


I agree.
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 11:07:09 AM | message detail
Nah, if Seph + Vincent get 35%, Cloud is a lock.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/29/2007 11:09:13 AM | message detail
No it isn't a lock..if Snake/Sonic are the other two, Cloud will be handicapped a lot more. Just look at the BR last year, Snake took more of cloud's votes then links. Sonic takes votes from square and nintendo..if Mario can't take votes from Link, I can only see Sonic taking more from Cloud. Link > Cloud is a lock imo if Snake is there.
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Hi. Hello. Howdy.
SFF_potential | Posted 10/29/2007 11:32:20 AM | message detail
I'm waiting for Sephiroth>Link next round

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Nominate Z-Block for the 2008 character battle!
Warsola | Posted 10/29/2007 12:00:46 PM | message detail
If Seph + Vincent gets 35%, Cloud all of a sudden is no longer a lock for the top two.
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Official Head of the L-Block Belief Core!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 12:02:11 PM | message detail
you guys are really good at telling when people are being serious. really. you are. i am not joking. you are literally extremely talented in that regard.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Warsola | Posted 10/29/2007 12:03:00 PM | message detail
I'm too lazy to tell when people are being serious or not.
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Official Head of the L-Block Belief Core!
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2007 12:06:55 PM | message detail
Fortunately, it's usually discovered instinctively.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Warsola | Posted 10/29/2007 12:07:23 PM | message detail
Screw the instincts, I have cupcakes!
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Official Head of the L-Block Belief Core!
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2007 12:32:06 PM | message detail
So what do you guys reckon Sephiroth will need to do to Link tomorrow for Cloud to become the favorite?
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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!
swirIdude | Posted 10/29/2007 12:32:37 PM | message detail
Win <_<
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:38:30 PM | message detail
It will be almost impossible to tell anything from tomorrow considering Sephiroth/Vincent and Mario/Link splits... if anything, Sephiroth/Mario last round tells more, and it's that Cloud's chances are pretty grim against Link.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/29/2007 12:41:36 PM | message detail
aww yeah Samus projected to get 62% on MM.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2007 1:12:48 PM | message detail
It's good to see Cloud still rising with the ASV here, but I don't have much confidence in him left. Really, I don't think Mario adds more to Link than Vincent does to Sephiroth (didn't a higher percentage of Mario votes go to Link than Sephiroth votes go to Cloud last year?), and Sephiroth was only 2% or so behind Cloud in 2003 and 2005, so.....I think Sephiroth/Vincent need 46% to give Cloud a decent chance....48% and he'd be the favorite.
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 1:34:44 PM | message detail
Looks like we found a new King of the Afterschool vote - Cloud Strife
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/29/2007 2:26:14 PM | message detail
you mispelled Master Chief
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Oracle Prediction: ~ Cloud 39.86% - Samus 25.00% - Rockman 21.00% - Ryu 14.14%~ Status: Meh
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 2:27:49 PM | message detail
You misspelled Jesu-- oh, no you didn't.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Haste_2 | Posted 10/29/2007 2:35:44 PM | message detail
Given that Sephiroth and Vincent are from the same game, you would expect them to get around 48% together against Link alone... but with Mario in the poll, nowhere near that.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2007 3:20:14 PM | message detail
Link + Mario in Link/Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake/Mario: 46.09%
Link in Link/Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake: 42.68%

Hmm......
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2007 3:21:40 PM | message detail
Link would already possibly beat Cloud/Sephiroth combined according to last year:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2564

Solid didn't help Cloud much after Sephiroth and Solid were eliminated...if we're seeing that same Link, then I'd think Link could get more than 52% on Sephiroth and Vincent combined, neverminding Mario.

Just a loosely-based thought though.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2007 3:35:58 PM | message detail
Well, that Link also beat Cloud with nearly 54% last year. Giving Cloud/Sephiroth the percentage of Snake's votes that ended up going to Cloud makes Link about even with Cloud + Sephiroth last year. So, if Cloud is going to win, Cloud + Sephiroth would need to beat Link with at least 54% or so in a Link/Cloud/Sephiroth poll. Sephiroth/Vincent is definitely weaker, but not that much so. I'd be satisfied with 50% from those two combined against Link, if it were just them and Link. Mario will drive Link's percentage down a good deal though..... taking out Mario reduced the Nintendo percentage by a bit over 3% last year- with Snake and Cloud not in this poll, he probably matters a little more. So.....I'd call the finals even if Sephiroth/Vincent get 46% tomorrow.
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
ZFS | Posted 10/29/2007 3:55:03 PM | message detail
I'm not even going to be looking at something like that tomorrow. I'm simply going to wait until next round to see how close Cloud can get to Link with Sephiroth in the poll. This adding percentages together in a poll full of SFF seems like a mistake -- and one I'm not willing to put any backing into as far as determining who is a favorite to win. Unless, of course, Link just dominates.

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 3:56:07 PM | message detail
so if seph beats link he still beats cloud yes
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/29/2007 3:56:56 PM | message detail
Yeah, unless Link completely dominates or completely collapses tomorrow, it's very hard to draw conclusions from an SFF/LFF match in a four way poll. And even in those cases it might be a bad idea - see Hayabusa.
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Mustache...and green...
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trannyscience | Posted 10/29/2007 4:17:13 PM | message detail
I think people will interpret this match in whatever way supports their previous ideas - if Link crushes Sephiroth, it's either SEPH/VINCENT LFF or LINK'S GON' DOMINATE; if Sephiroth gets close, the opposite.

basically, we have no way to know, won't have any way to know next round either unless Link beats both combined, and will only know when it happens.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
MnMZero | Posted 10/29/2007 4:28:27 PM | message detail
Okay, so I'm almost completely detached from GameFAQs... what did I miss this past week?
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Proud Supporter of Zero
creativename | Posted 10/29/2007 4:56:46 PM | message detail
A good performance by Cloud today, but not a Link-beater performance.

Also, I completely forgot that we get to see Link vs. Cloud twice this year.

And this contest is pretty close to over now. It's been a fun ride.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2007 4:58:57 PM | message detail
Okay, so I'm almost completely detached from GameFAQs... what did I miss this past week?

Lol Noble Nine
WTF Pikachu?
L-Block for champ!

That sums it right up.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 57: Cloud > Mega Man Points: 253/384
trannyscience | Posted 10/29/2007 5:01:07 PM | message detail
I like how Cloud/Samus is currently 58.36/41.64, and was 59/41 in 2004.

it's like nothing's changed; heck, those two may end up nearing 2004's vote total alone.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 5:02:35 PM | message detail
Remember, Cloud's also doing this to Samus with Ryu draining him
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
trannyscience | Posted 10/29/2007 5:03:26 PM | message detail
ah, yes. how could I forget?
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 5:04:49 PM | message detail
And that's WITH Mega Man leeching off Samus. Amazing stuff from the bounty hunter today.

(Moltar: Making Samus look good since 2003.)
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Mega Man/Cloud/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Samus - Vote: Samus (311/396)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 5:05:53 PM | message detail
EC: Making Moltar's ass look good since forever.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
creativename | Posted 10/29/2007 5:06:39 PM | message detail
Remember, Cloud's also doing this to Samus with Ryu draining him

Plus Mega Man gets the FF7 Barret fan vote because of his arm canon, so he also hurts Cloud more than Samus.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/29/2007 5:07:36 PM | message detail
pfft, if that's true, you gotta add Samus into the equation.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/29/2007 5:09:31 PM | message detail
Cloud would have 100% of the vote if it weren't for Samus, Mega Man, and Ryu leeching off of him!
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Mustache...and green...
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 5:09:39 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who can see Vincent<10% tomorrow?

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
Warsola | Posted 10/29/2007 5:11:10 PM | message detail
Upper-tier FFVII is infamously hard to SFF.


Well sure, all we've seen is Cloud/Sephiroth but the point still stands damnit.
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Official Head of the L-Block Belief Core!
greatone10 | Posted 10/29/2007 5:27:25 PM | message detail
We all know that L-Block would be winning if Cloud, Samus, Ryu, and Mega weren't in the poll leeching of him, and if L-Block was in the match!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs.
creativename | Posted 10/29/2007 5:39:22 PM | message detail
Added the number of updates being displayed to the graphing. So this way early in matches, you can easily know how many updates to enter as '&max=' if you want to compare directly with an older poll.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2007 5:41:30 PM | message detail
Is it possible to change the time stamps with to reflect the max updates you're viewing? Like if you limit yourself to the first like, 30 updates, you'll just see a graph with no time stamps because the first one doesn't occur until 2-3 hours in to the match. Not too urgent, just wondering if that's within your ability or not
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ZFS | Posted 10/29/2007 5:44:31 PM | message detail
I like how Cloud/Samus is currently 58.36/41.64, and was 59/41 in 2004.

metroid prime 3 boost imho cloud for champ

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
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