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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 537

The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 11:23:26 PM | message detail
I successfully made Cloud angry with my taunting
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 11:35:41 PM | message detail
what the hell did you do n00b
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Mega Man/Cloud/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Samus - Vote: Samus (311/396)
Keno316 | Posted 10/28/2007 11:38:28 PM | message detail
Wow you pissed him off good.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2007 11:56:55 PM | message detail
Once again Cloud is looking to exceed my expectations - the ones that had last round's match taken into account as well. Granted I'm just one person, but the fact that he's able to so consistently impress here is inspiring... unfortunately, unless he acclerates significantly more than I expect it'll be short of Link inspiring.

Even still though, this is a fine performance (is there a reason people think he's not gonna hit 40% and then some?). If you think it mattered back in 2k3, it might even be enough for Cloud to upset a Link saddled with a WW pic or something. But wishful thinking aside, not too much to take from this match... other than the fact that I expected Ryu to be holding up a lot better. I hate to see what the morning does to the guy... =/
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Seginustemple | Posted 10/28/2007 11:57:57 PM | message detail
Obligitory: "Oh man, did you guys see that? Cloud is dropping like a ROCK but FASTER! WOO, DAMN HE'S GOIN DOWN FAST NOW!!!!"
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
transience | Posted 10/28/2007 11:59:56 PM | message detail
I love this symmetry. 2274, 2328, 2141 vote leads.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:20:25 AM | message detail
Watching Ryu truly die for the first time in over five years is kind of weird, but it also raises questions about what some of the other "hardcore, devoted fanbase" characters, namely Master Chief, would do in his place. Once everything is said and done, he'll probably be hovering around 11%. That being said, I can't see Master Chief, a character who still might be weaker than Ryu in a traditional sense, approaching or surpassing something as ridiculous as 20%+. It definitely makes him seem more human, but then again, Master Chief is up against significantly weaker competition for at least one more round.

In short: I'm never going to forgive you, Pikachu. You're #1 on my worst characters list 4life.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
voltch | Posted 10/29/2007 12:22:20 AM | message detail
so is ryu holding back mega man?
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*shakes fist at his own bracket*
transience | Posted 10/29/2007 12:24:13 AM | message detail
I think that was debunked a while ago - he's just more independent than his opponents. he's certainly nonlinear, but that's more because his fanbase likes his disproportionally to the rest of the site. to a certain group of people, he's "noble nine" -- to another group he's just another guy. that helps him out a lot, especially against strong guys.

but his fanbase isn't static, nothing like L-Block is right now. I mean, come on -- it's Master Chief, one of the most casual guys out there.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:24:52 AM | message detail
I think Samus is holding him back.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:25:26 AM | message detail
I think him being lame is holding him back.
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CB6 - 258/384; Oracle - 33rd
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:26:55 AM | message detail
Cloud over 48% already?!? OH MY GOD HE'S A MANIAC!

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:27:30 AM | message detail
Oh my GOD!
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CB6 - 258/384; Oracle - 33rd
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
Haste_2 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:28:22 AM | message detail
Wow... lots of good discussion I missed. Oh, well.

Holy crap at yesterday's result... Sonic could barely beat Squall... was Sub-Zero that weak all this time? I mean, Sub-Zero didn't seem to fold in yesterday's match... his proportion to Sonic was almost the same as the previous round. What about his round 1 match? Was Sonic pathetic beyond what anyone comprehended before being announced in SSBB? Here's something of note: Squall beat Sora a little worse than Squall beat Aeris (excluding Round 2 with the 3-way Square split). Maybe Aeris could beat Sora, after all...


As for today... good job, Cloud. If you hit 40%, I would say you more-or-less matched Link's performance last round (of course, Link's pic was crappy...). Shoot for 41%! I'm wondering... maybe Squall's good performance is a good sign for Cloud! =P However, transience has a good point about Samus being close to Cloud... that's not a good sign for Cloud at all, but it makes it seem like Mega Man and Ryu are just sucking it up. Granted, Samus has MP:C so she could be stronger than ever, but that's still not a good sign for Cloud. Poor Mega Man... well, poor Ryu, too... but I wanted MM to show some of his mass array of weapons today. :/

Oh, yeah, and we're seeing evidence of more LFF between Samus/Yoshi and Mega Man/(Yoshi or Samus). Anyway, considering that there is a degree of LFF between -all- characters, I think it is possible for there to be pretty severe SFF without there being a ton of LFF. I think Mega Man/Yoshi 2K5 and Sora/Aeris 2K3 are the best examples at this point... not saying those two examples have no more LFF than MC/Crono or Cloud/Ryu or something... but it's not as much as one would judge based on the amount of SFF. While there is definitely a correlation between the amount of SFF and the amount of LFF and the strength difference, that idea is definitely not law.

For this same reason, I think it's possible for one character to indeed get a higher percentage in relation to others through SFF... let's say MC SFFed Liquid Snake but there wasn't much more LFF between MC and Liquid than through MC and Yuna/Alucard... MC's percentage could indeed be inflated even when compared to Yuna and Alucard! Not that that's what happened in the match, of course...(there's evidence agianst that), but I just gave a random example.

One comment about tomorrow's match: Vincent will NOT do better than Mario. Sephiroth is going to SFF Vincent so badly it will make Vincent fans cry... (and Link and Mario being around will hurt Vincent even worse... that darn last-place factor)

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Seginustemple | Posted 10/29/2007 12:28:39 AM | message detail
Cloud over 48% already?!? OH MY GOD HE'S A MANIAC!

Glad you found your funnybone, Hochi.
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:29:05 AM | message detail
I agree, but watching him put up impressive performances in every round (especially those first two) and amaze everyone certainly did raise a ton of questions. The wild MC theories are also kinda supported by his contest history. He's been around since nearly the beginning, and while he's had his fair share of disappointing performances, he's never actually gotten killed. I think that might have a lot to do with the whole "MC will put up 20% on anything" mindset.

Of course, he's never faced those scary beasties who are known to do the killing around here. Put him against someone the likes of Clinkeroth, Snake, or Samus, and I think he gets boned.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2007 12:33:13 AM | message detail
do doo doo *refresh*

*jaw drop*
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:34:06 AM | message detail
is dat sum 50%
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CB6 - 258/384; Oracle - 33rd
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:36:03 AM | message detail
Are you kidding me Clod.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Keno316 | Posted 10/29/2007 12:38:08 AM | message detail
Haha! DAMN that was crazy...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/29/2007 12:41:13 AM | message detail
that update was... wtf cloud?
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Keno316 | Posted 10/29/2007 1:35:10 AM | message detail
Nice. Cloud should be up to 39% before the morning vote hits. With some luck he'll be dancing over 40% by match's finish.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2007 1:44:03 AM | message detail
What I find amusing is that Ryu is stalling and cutting pretty damn consistently on Mega Man right now. :P The more things change...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Keno316 | Posted 10/29/2007 1:48:35 AM | message detail
Oh wow! Hadn't noticed how far down Megaman's %s per update had drop.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2007 2:24:14 AM | message detail
what is Cloud doing
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/29/2007 2:26:46 AM | message detail
Random x-stats given to last round....which'll all fall apart once again.

Samus - 41.00%; Mega Man - 39.00%; Yoshi - 27.25%; Scorpion - 25.00%
Cloud - 56.00%; Ryu - 30.25%; Auron - 27.50%; Marcus - 19.25%
Sephiroth - 50.00%; Mario - 42.75%; Big Boss - 16.50%; Fox - 12.50%
Link - 56.00%; Vincent - 3400%; Crono - 32.50%; Zero - 20.75%
Master Chief - 44.00%; Luigi - 33.00%; Ganondorf - 32.00%; Yuna - 27.50%
Pikachu - 32.00%; Dante - 30.00%; Leon Kennedy - 25.00%; Amaterasu - 14.00%
Snake - 40.00%; L-Block - 36.75%; Kratos - 29.00%; Riku - 25.75%
Sonic - 39.00%; Squall - 37.75%: Sora - 27.25%; Sub-Zero - 23.50%

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/29/2007 2:47:08 AM | message detail
Seems like Link will have a lot to live up to tomorrow.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/29/2007 3:58:14 AM | message detail
tag.

KB
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2007 4:23:57 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2007 4:27:51 AM | message detail
Time .| SMAUS | Mega ....| Cloud ...| Ryu
01:00 | 29.98% | 21.13% | 37.16% | 11.73%
02:00 | 28.83% | 20.15% | 38.74% | 12.29%
03:00 | 28.89% | 18.69% | 40.14% | 12.28%
04:00 | 28.87% | 17.78% | 40.08% | 13.27%
05:00 | 28.14% | 15.71% | 43.57% | 12.58%
06:00 | 28.45% | 15.33% | 44.65% | 11.57%
07:00 | 31.03% | 16.54% | 41.82% | 10.61%

Ouch Megaman. Just ouch. Let's see, Cloud managed 42% with the first morning hour, which means he'll probably manage around that much for the rest of the match. So... we'll probably see him rise to at least 41% by the end of the match. 42% if he's lucky and does better than that later. Samus also looks like she'll stay above 28% or 29% at least. Things aren't looking so well for the other 2 though
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
mmnin | Posted 10/29/2007 4:32:13 AM | message detail
This character battle seems to be a little "too" epic.

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A Revolution is coming....
Who Cares? | Posted 10/29/2007 5:27:58 AM | message detail
Heh, it's kinda funny browsing thru the topic and seeing all the "OMG, Cloud" posts. I guess I'm one of the few that's just totally numb to anything Link & Cloud does anymore, outside of a match where they completely suck it up.
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Current Points: 295 -- 8th on Leaderboard
11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 5:54:37 AM | message detail
Well looks like Cloud will reach 40% easily... I thought he'd be able to get it before the morning vote kicked in and held him back for a bit, but he fell just short. Either way, looking good to hopefully make the final interesting.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 6:36:32 AM | message detail
This is disgraceful, Mega Man.

Also, while Cloud's percentage is fine, Samus's is actually much better when compared to our expectations. She has to be SFFing Mega Man a bit, which leads me to believe that Link will have no problem making Sonic look like garbage. The theory of Sonic overlapping and hurting Link just enough for Cloud to shimmy through was practically the basis for arguing his victory, but it looks like it has absolutely zero indication of happening. If Cloud wants to beat Link in a weak, he simply has to be stronger than Link. Good luck to him.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
AssPleasures | Posted 10/29/2007 6:37:21 AM | message detail
I'll beat your ass in a weak.

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i want you inside me
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 6:39:10 AM | message detail
In fact, at this point, I'd argue that it's better for Cloud to see someone like Master Chief or even L-Block in the finals before Sonic. At least they represent an X-factor, whereas we're relatively sure that Link is just going to hammer Sonic.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
AssPleasures | Posted 10/29/2007 6:41:12 AM | message detail
Good thing Chief's making it then!

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i want you inside me
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2007 6:56:13 AM | message detail
Yeah, Sonic is going to get killed in the finals if he makes it there- we've seen what Last Place Factor can do, and I think Sonic could very well get doubled in one-on-one matches by both Link and Cloud this year. Cloud is doing alright I suppose, but he's not really impressing me- I was hoping he could beat Samus + MM combined today, but that's not going to happen. His percentage being around expectations is due to Ryu collapsing.
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 7:05:57 AM | message detail
Yeah, it looks like I gave Mega Man and Ryu way too much credit, undervalued Cloud by about a percent, but undervalued Samus by about seven. Based on my expectations, anyway, it's clear who the star of this match is.

If this percentage holds, it translates into a ~42.5%+ performance against Cloud 1v1, which is better than what she scored in 2004, the year many regard to be her best ever. And this is despite Mega Man in the poll. Extremely impressive.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2007 7:25:50 AM | message detail
Cloud is finally over 40%. He rose another percent from this point last round; hopefully he will do a bit better than that this time.
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
AssPleasures | Posted 10/29/2007 7:47:21 AM | message detail
...why can I never see my glorious Samus/Seph showdown? Just give me a 1v1 once Allen... I NEED TO TAKE THAT UPSET.

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i want you inside me
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 7:53:01 AM | message detail
Samus > Seph is my upset that should have happened back in 2005! darn you mario

And wooooah Cloud. 40% in the morning, and with day chumps like Ryu and MM here...Samus and Cloud gonna look good.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Mega Man/Cloud/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Samus - Vote: Samus (311/396)
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/29/2007 7:55:42 AM | message detail
Watch Link beat Sephiroth and Vincent combined tomorrow. >.>
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ "This topic is pretty hot and exciting to read." - LusterSoldier
Arsenal FC: 8-0-2. Pts: 26. Position: 1st L5: W-W-W-W-D
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/29/2007 7:58:45 AM | message detail
I'm saddened at Ryu's performance. Mainly because this is really gonna make Bowser look ugly in those x-stats.
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GSB International Champion
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/29/2007 8:01:49 AM | message detail
Capcom LFF between Mega Man and Ryu confirmed?
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2007 8:12:35 AM | message detail
Mega Man sucks = confirmed more like.

I'm happy with what Cloud's doing here. He's impressed more than Link has with each round so far. Here's hoping this'll be no exception.
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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!
Haste_2 | Posted 10/29/2007 8:43:12 AM | message detail
Samus will only finish 3-4% lower than last round... despite facing Cloud and Ryu rather than Scorpion and Yoshi. I think this proves that Yoshi hurt Samus quite a lot last round. Oh, and I never thought that 2K4 Samus was the strongest Samus... at worst, I always figured Samus afterwards has maintained her strength since 2K4.... there's no solid proof of anything, though. I certainly think she's stronger now, though, especially with MP:C still pretty fresh.

For the record... here's an interesting fact to know. It seems that Cloud is beating Samus only slightly worse than Sephiroth beat Mario. As of now Samus looks slighty stronger than Mario... of course, Cloud will probably gain a bit of ground on her before it's over. When I think about it, Sephiroth/Mario going as expected last round is a bad sign for Cloud... after all, if Sephiroth doesn't improve in this format, why would Cloud?

Capcom LFF between Mega Man and Ryu confirmed?
Hay, Dante and Leon LFFed each other a huge amount, too... we now Capcom LFF is the ultimate LFF! =P (and, just think, that means Balthier is even MORE pathetic!)

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 8:51:24 AM | message detail
I should have clarified. 2004 probably isn't Samus's best year in terms of strength, but in terms of results. She looked phenomenal in her first four matches and held up well against Cloud. It was also the contest that hammered home the "Samus is stronger than Mario" theory that lead so many brackets to their doom one year later.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 10:27:52 AM | message detail
Samus > Seph is my upset that should have happened back in 2005! darn you mario

I was on it too my friend! god dammit mario what the hell is wrong with you
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/29/2007 10:31:17 AM | message detail
Plenty of things have pointed to Samus > Mario since Samus/Mario went down, so it's not surprising to see her looking better than Mario here as well. Granted you really can't take anything solid out of this contest, as there's probably tons of wackiness going on in every match that we can't account for, still, add it to the ever growing list!

I can't wait until KH gets here and goes all augh.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
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