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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 537

MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:07:22 PM | message detail
Ummm.....Squall>Sonic?

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 9:08:12 PM | message detail
no
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/28/2007 9:08:15 PM | message detail
ZOMG SMAUS
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 9:36:12 PM | message detail
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Materia Master | Posted 10/28/2007 9:36:35 PM | message detail
lulz.
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Ippo is the only character who's wussiness is inversely proportional to the size of his wang. - kiro blaze
Keno316 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:36:39 PM | message detail
Between Mario being in the poll and Sephy/Vincent potentially splitting, drawing conclusions on Link in tomorrow's match won't be as reliable.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:36:49 PM | message detail
Samus ended up at or better than her power hour in all her previous matches (remember, NPH doesn't exist anymore, as it was originally defined). Ryu simply doesn't have much to give here, though Mega Man's definitely a power hour+ kinda guy. I think Cloud will end up at 40-42% with the lion's share of that coming from Mega Man.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:37:09 PM | message detail
If Seph + Vincent tomorrow = 45%, then Link is done
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:37:10 PM | message detail
Cloud > Link Believe!

And Cloud would beat Sonic worse than he did in 2003 now!
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
Seginustemple | Posted 10/28/2007 9:37:23 PM | message detail
actually I think their packs are pretty comparable,

Sephiroth>Samus
Mario>Mega Man
Vincent>Ryu

Ehh, Link's is still a bit stronger, but yeah, the SFF there should be interesting. I wonder how badly Vincent does with Sephy getting the FF7 badass vote...
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
transience | Posted 10/28/2007 9:38:16 PM | message detail
yeah, this is probably a 40-30-20-10 match, maybe a bit lower for Mega Man.

next
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 9:38:53 PM | message detail
Between Mario being in the poll and Sephy/Vincent potentially splitting, drawing conclusions on Link in tomorrow's match won't be as reliable.

Yeah this is what I was getting at.

How much Link beats Sephiroth vs. how much Cloud beats Samus by might be more relevant than a direct %age comparison.
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Blackapino1984 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:40:08 PM | message detail
Isn't this Ryu's first divisional final appearance?
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DS name: Blackapino JUS FC: 2234-2602-1576
Pearl FC: 3050-4072-8060
transience | Posted 10/28/2007 9:40:09 PM | message detail
honestly, there is no way to gauge the two prior to the final. even the clinkeroth match won't be able to tell us much.

this format is nasty like that.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 9:40:35 PM | message detail
I really don't think Samus will maintain 30% here. While normally she finishes higher, I don't think this is entirely normal right now.

Sephiroth>Samus
Mario>Mega Man
Vincent>Ryu


Not with SFFed Mario and possibly SFFed Vincent.
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transience | Posted 10/28/2007 9:40:51 PM | message detail
the best we can do, I guess, is to compare this match to Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero and go off which performance we think is the more impressive. those are the two matches that are the most "legit".
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:42:30 PM | message detail
Looks like Cloud will breach 37% by the end of the NPH. Link and his fruity booty stars have a tall order tomorrow
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
transience | Posted 10/28/2007 9:42:53 PM | message detail
47 trannyscience 282 Link
48 transience_002 282 Link

hah.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:43:17 PM | message detail
Samus >>> Crono
MM >= Vincent
Ryu >>> Zero


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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 9:43:41 PM | message detail
By "possibly SFFed Vincent", I mean more "possibly more SFFed than Mario". Certainly Vincent will get SFFed. Though it's hard to say who'll get it worse, Mario or Vincent.

I think Mario might hold up better than in the Battle Royale though.
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Seginustemple | Posted 10/28/2007 9:43:52 PM | message detail
Not with SFFed Mario and possibly SFFed Vincent.

Possibly? I'd bet just about anything Sephy SFF's Vincent there....

It'll be interesting to watch.
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 9:44:14 PM | message detail
I really don't think Samus will maintain 30% here. While normally she finishes higher, I don't think this is entirely normal right now.

Whatever X's percent is at the end of the first hour, X's percent will end lower than that if present in a match with Y.

Where X equals anyone but Cloud and Sephiroth and Y equals Cloud or Sephiroth
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/28/2007 9:44:38 PM | message detail
I don't think you can compare Cloud's opponents here to Link's at all. Link is going up against two characters from the same game and a Mario that he absolutely destroyed in the BR last year. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Link beat out his percentage from last round. Mario will probably do a little better than Zero, but I'd consider Crono+Vincent over Sephiroth+Vincent against Link in this format.

Tomorrow's match really doesn't tell us anything.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 9:53:26 PM | message detail
Oh my God.. did you see that Cloud jump? It seems I was wrong when I said Cloud would breach 37% by the end of the NPH... he's doing it 10 minutes before!!!
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 9:53:58 PM | message detail
I think Cloud makes 38% before the end of the hour IMOIMO
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 9:54:58 PM | message detail
I think Cloud makes 38% before the end of the hour IMOIMO

What are you, dyslexic or something buddy?? You mean 83% right!
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 9:55:16 PM | message detail
i know i do
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 9:57:05 PM | message detail
are you ready for a 45.92% percentage gain
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Seginustemple | Posted 10/28/2007 9:57:49 PM | message detail
There's over 200 updates left...if Cloud can shoot up .5 every single time....

dear god....

Cloud wins with over 140% of the vote....
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 9:58:31 PM | message detail
1.53%

1.35%

96.69%

0.53%

That's the the next update looks like. I was a little generous to Ryu though
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 10:02:07 PM | message detail
Uh, only a .08% gain for Cloud

Stupid vote stuffing cheaters ruining the contest
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 10:02:51 PM | message detail
4chan hates cloud confirmed
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 10:03:46 PM | message detail
that mad eme lol TNA, mainly becaus square fans are some of the worst at that. Still, MM is in the poll..his fans imo are the worst vote stuffers around
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Hi. Hello. Howdy.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/28/2007 10:05:40 PM | message detail
Oh man, looks like I gave Ryu far too much credit. Looks like even some of the most hardcore fans will fold in the face of three Noble Niners.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 10:07:13 PM | message detail
Of course they will... now if they're taking in a constant supply of GAME FUEL, they can hold up like a real champ.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 10:07:58 PM | message detail
Holy **** Cloud just omnislashed MM in the face on that one
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Hi. Hello. Howdy.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/28/2007 10:08:03 PM | message detail
Heh, great point, actually. I wonder what Chief would be getting here.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 10:09:16 PM | message detail
Something between 100% and 10000%
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 10:09:40 PM | message detail
Closer to 1000 imo
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Blackapino1984 | Posted 10/28/2007 10:10:03 PM | message detail
I believe this is Ryu's first divisional final appearance. That's fine with me and it's definately a step in the right direction.

I'm going to keeping an eye on SF4 hype and anything related to it.

Hopefully a few more of these things can push Ryu into the next tier not noble nine material but, up there with the like of Vincent, Auron, Squall, Ganondorf, etc. I would definately be happy with that.
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DS name: Blackapino JUS FC: 2234-2602-1576
Pearl FC: 3050-4072-8060
Iubaris | Posted 10/28/2007 10:12:40 PM | message detail
Oh snap, 40% update.
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It's iubaris, not Lubaris.
Bracket: 246/384; Oracle: 67th
red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 10:13:49 PM | message detail
And Cloud with a 40% update.
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8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono.
creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 10:17:16 PM | message detail
Oh man, looks like I gave Ryu far too much credit. Looks like even some of the most hardcore fans will fold in the face of three Noble Niners.

The hardcore fan thing with Ryu isn't actually true, and I figured it would be shown in this match.

It's just that he doesn't have much SFF overlap with most characters, so he looks good in matches where it's there. It isn't because of this "hardcore fanbase" everything kept throwing out.

Ryu should look better by the finish than he does now though.
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creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 10:18:45 PM | message detail
I think Cloud finishes with 39%-40.5% here.

With Samus looking this good though, it isn't look as great for Cloud as otherwise, as has been discussed. If she falls under say 27% or so it would look great, but that probably isn't going to happen.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 10:23:03 PM | message detail
cloud b hitin' dat 41 percentz
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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 10:30:06 PM | message detail
damn mm fans, die and stop vote stuffing!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/28/2007 10:30:15 PM | message detail
cloud b hitin' dat 35 percentz
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Christmas_Eve | Posted 10/28/2007 10:33:00 PM | message detail
Cloud is broken.
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Kobe is the best etc.
Keno316 | Posted 10/28/2007 11:13:25 PM | message detail
Well...Cloud's doing...alright...but I expected more. Unless the day-vote somehow becomes a miracle booster...I think Cloud won't even get to 40%

...and the train loses steam.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 11:15:10 PM | message detail
Cloud has gone 35 minutes without increasing his percent. If he goes another 35 minutes he can break the record!
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
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