GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 536
| H__RR____H | Posted 10/28/2007 2:56:24 PM | message detail |
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I think Sephiroth would SFF Vincent more than Link SFF Mario. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=845 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2563 Vincent got 18.5% against Cloud and every other playable character in FF7 in 2k2, HM used to flaunt a FF7-poll that had Sephiroth on some fansite and Vincent was closer to Sephiroth than Seph was to Cloud (I think it was 13 > 20 > 28 percentage-wise), Vincent has since had FF:AC and DoC come out to help keep up with Seph being in the KH games, and Vincent is playable...I think all of those will allow Vincent to hold up well to Sephiroth. He's already held up to Crono twice if you consider that the same Square fanbase, one of which he outdid Crono in. Meanwhile, Mario got hammered in the BR last year after Samus was eliminated. Thanks to Link, he was nearly 4% under Sephiroth while Cloud was in the poll...Seph's not far away from Cloud and we've seen Vincent hold up well in FF7-polls, so if you take away Cloud then Mario's still going to have a very real challenge in Vincent. You also get to take away Solid Snake in the BR example...who -- when eliminated -- helped Cloud a bit more than Link. On top of that, if you think Yoshi or Samus took his SSBB-hype away, Mario and Link smashed it...and Solid still beat Mario nearly as bad as Sephiroth did in that poll. I'm just saying Link is really going to hurt Mario because we saw it as recently as last year in this format, and Vincent has shown reason that he can hold up well in this format. I feel like Link is going to hurt Mario more than Sephiroth is going to hurt Vincent, and quite possibly by a lot. Vincent's rather strong too and wouldn't be destroyed by Mario head-to-head (he probably wouldn't lose to Mario much worse than Sephiroth would lose to Link, really). Mario has damn good reason to be scared. Squall/Solid is going to be the largest overlap in next rounds match-up... I really don't see how anyone could even try to deny it. I bet Sonic and L-Block have a FAR larger overlap than Solid and Squall. I don't hear anybody calling for SFF. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| H__RR____H | Posted 10/28/2007 3:22:37 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and so I can fairly deny a larger overlap with Solid/Squall than
Sonic/L-Block (because I want to be an ass about my previous sarcastic
remark before I go back to the theatre): Sonic 1: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2665 Tetris: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1890 In a worst-case scenario, 84.96% of the site hasn't ever played Sonic 1 or Tetris, and it is neverminding that both of these are considered classics and have been on so many systems as well as easily emulated as well as forgetting how long these have been around...oh, and forgetting how many sequels and spin-offs featuring either Sonic or L-Block came, too. I don't know how to do the math to get the lowest percentage of people who have played both Sonic 1 and Tetris, but I bet it's still higher than the number of people who have played MGS's biggest game... MGS1: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2179 ...72.39%. I also don't have any numbers on how many people here have played FF8, though I have numbers on KH1 and KH2... KH1: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1562 KH2: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2335 ...72.45% and 57.93%, respectively (though the KH2-poll came out really soon after its release). We can recognize that we don't have numbers for MGS2, MGS3, or FF8 for this, sure, and we can say that Solid's fans and Squall's fans are closer related than Sonic's fans and L-Block's fans...but I don't think anybody can fairly say Solid/Squall has more overlap than Sonic/L-Block. There's my rant to take a point of sarcasm way too far for the day. Had to fill time somehow...! --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| H__RR____H | Posted 10/28/2007 3:24:50 PM | message detail |
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Oh, one last thing: it's a weekend, so Sonic's day-vote isn't going to
be as good today. I thought it would be better than this though...! In Sonic's match later this week, look for him to improve with the ASV more than he is today...win, lose, or draw. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| Lopen | Posted 10/28/2007 3:29:37 PM | message detail |
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Especially considering Sora won't be there to rob it from him. Sonic's increase should be pretty massive. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 3:39:11 PM | message detail |
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Sonic didn't even improve with the ASV in his first match. Granted, Prince of Persia probably had something to do with that. Sonic's ASV is overrated. It's the morning in which he excels --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 3:41:28 PM | message detail |
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Well given the competition in his next match, Sonic will pretty much
have to go up with the ASV. If he doesn't that would be pretty pathetic --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2007 3:46:55 PM | message detail |
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I know that I'm right actually. You really have a problem with
acknowledging the impact of pictures if you think Samus struggles with
Tifa normally in that match last year. Then as usual, you haven't paid attention. I bring up the picture factor more than most people. The last argument we had REVOLVED around us gauging the picture factor in various instances. You may not pay attention to what I post, but it doesn't stop you from being wrong. I mean, yes you are right that there is only one data point for that special case...but the general case of pics blatantly hurting has happened sooo many times, and ZSS hurting Samus so much couldn't possibly make any more sense You overstating your cases must be a pathological thing. May I remind you that virtually NO ONE expected Samus to be hurt by that picture, let alone the hurt be that severe. The explanation is after-the-fact; unlike, say, Solid ****. Even before the first vote was cast in its first appearance people were calling for Snake underperforming. And the biggest argument against ZSS (not that I even want to delve further into this argument, but because you like being contrary SO much)? As people have already pointed out, Cloud/Samus 2k4. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| transience | Posted 10/28/2007 4:34:19 PM | message detail |
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argh picture arguments Anyway, I'm not sure why you're so deadset against Solid/Squall LFF creative. We've seen over the last few days LFF coming out of places where it wasn't definitively going to happen. We've seen FF/MG go funny before, and we've seen matches where the two entrants obviously have a significant degree of overlap, yet the %'s still look extremely normal. Squall/Solid is going to be the largest overlap in next rounds match-up... I really don't see how anyone could even try to deny it. Whether or not that stops Snake from getting first, or allows Sonic to finish first, or any other result is certainly debatable, but really what you're saying just doesn't make sense. I believe in this - just because Squall/Sora went according to stats in round 2 didn't stop people from calling for some overlap (or "LFF", as people here like to call it) in this match here. put simply (and with happy acronyms!), no obvious SFF does not mean no LFF. put another way - Leon/Dante probably went according to expectations, but look at what Pikachu did. --- "i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage |
| Lopen | Posted 10/28/2007 4:41:02 PM | message detail |
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May I remind you that virtually NO ONE expected Samus to be hurt by that picture, let alone the hurt be that severe I disagree with that... I seem to remember a lot of people thinking that before the match. Although I suppose my memory might be a bit confused with what speculation happened before and after the match took place. It's really a huge shame I did the write-up for that match before I saw the picture and didn't check out the picture before the match... I'd have called for Samus to only win with like 52% and would've looked like a genius!! --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| transience | Posted 10/28/2007 4:48:01 PM | message detail |
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most people were like "Brawl pic = win". I was a bit skeptical myself,
but NOTHING like that. suffice to say I don't blame the picture 100%...
something else is there. let's see... http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=57 --- "i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 4:58:33 PM | message detail |
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Then as usual, you haven't paid attention. I bring up the picture
factor more than most people. The last argument we had REVOLVED around
us gauging the picture factor in various instances. You may not pay
attention to what I post, but it doesn't stop you from being wrong. Again with the "wrong" stuff in a case (ZSS hurting Samus) where's there scarcely any room for debate :) The only thing one can possibly say against the ZSS factor is the lack of a definitive control for comparison, though we obviously have pretty much every other Samus match ever (excluding Mario/BR ones) for comparison. You overstating your cases must be a pathological thing Er...I know when there's not much to bother discussing, and that's the case here. The evidence and logic are overwhelming. To say the case in denial of ZSS is "slim" is being incredibly generous. I mean, how can you talk about overstating cases when there is hardly a case to be made for your minimizing ZSS factor stance? May I remind you that virtually NO ONE expected Samus to be hurt by that picture, let alone the hurt be that severe. Well yeah of course no one expected it to be so severe. So what? How does that mean anything at all against ZSS factor? Also plenty of people seriously discussed her being hurt, but because her performances had historically been pretty consistent, and Tifa was nowhere near as strong as Samus, we didn't think it would be that big a deal. Yet you say in caps "no one" thought it would hurt her; it's true that no one dreamed it could hurt her that much, but lots of people had suspicions. And after-the-fact...please now...again, irrelevant. That is not good logic you're using here IMO. After-the-fact is was pretty clear what happened. Pretty much everyone knew on first impression what happened there. It's not like it required analysis of any sort, it was clear as day. It's only trying to disprove it that you get into endless analysis. And the biggest argument against ZSS (not that I even want to delve further into this argument, but because you like being contrary SO much)? As people have already pointed out, Cloud/Samus 2k4. Friend, I'm like the least "contrary" person possible. I pretty much always roll in whichever direction the data/evidence takes me. Even when it's painful! :( This very thing that we're discussing, picture factor, I was very against early on...yet I was proven incredibly wrong, however I realized it pretty quickly once it started to become evident. And Cloud/Samus 2K4? Seriously? That's nothing. Look at those two pictures and tell me the prominence of ZSS is anything alike. You can't even really tell in that picture unless you more than glance at it. They're also one-sided pictures anyway. Also we don't have by-picture vote data for that match. But really, comparing the prominence of this http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=2&pos=64 to the prominence of this http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=8&pos=57 Is not something I'd ever think was reasonable. This is a total non-case. The only reason someone would deny the pic impact in that match is to be "contrary", as you said. Also, how do you not realize that you saying nobody expect ZSS to be so severe is the same thing as Solid ****? People's expectations were pretty similar both times in terms of potential pic impact (somewhat worse for Snake I would guess), and both times people were similarly blown away by the actual result. Even with Snake/Bowser, where there was talk of upset potential with a bad Snake picture, most people were pretty shocked by the actual insane closeness of that match. And we already knew Snake was hurt by pictures at that point (though some denied it). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/28/2007 5:01:57 PM | message detail |
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Since KM hasn't updated the pages to include the average predictions
yet, I'll add to tranny's last link by saying that the Oracle average
for Samus on Tifa was 57.41%.
But what we should really do is look back at the archived prediction
topic for that match, and see what kind of preds people were sending in
after seeing the picture vs what they sent after. Ah heck, I'll do it myself. --- The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 5:02:31 PM | message detail |
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transcience suffice to say I don't blame the picture 100%... something else is there. I have no problem with someone saying the picture wasn't 100%, because of course that's not something we can argue about much. But if someone's saying it wasn't the majority of the influence, then yeah, I'm going to think something is very wrong. no obvious SFF does not mean no LFF. I never said the opposite. Do you deny that the Snake/Squall SFF idea was entirely in the context of 1-on-1 matches when people always brought it up? It *failed* there. Yet people now bring it up again for the sole reason they have the format as a new excuse, and they love clinging to specific theories that never had a shred of evidence. There's always room for surprising levels of LFF in this format, and I'm not going to say it would take a miracle for Squall and Snake to kill each other, but there's not much reason to think Squall/Snake will be much worse than any other two characters in that match. It's just that Snake/Squall SFF is another one of those irritating myths that people keep bringing up, despite the fact that it has never happened. I could honestly see Snake 1st, Squall 2nd in that match and some people would STILL bring it up. That's how ridiculous some of these myths are in terms of their inability to just freakin' die. In fact, I'm going to call them "Zombie Myths" from now on :) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 5:08:08 PM | message detail |
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Ah heck, I'll do it myself. Tireless Ngamer :) In his wisdom realizing that saying "somebody should do this..." means almost certainly no one actually will :) Those should be interesting. Though I wonder if it will be clear what time the pic was posted. I'm not sure what it would mean though...whether the average prediction went down for Samus or not (I wouldn't expect it to decrease by more than a percent or two on the high end), doesn't really clarify the actual impact of the picture too much. Though it would say that people have some skill at adjusting for pictures, but that's probably true in general anyway, even if not the case there. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/28/2007 5:11:10 PM | message detail |
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Here's everyone's reactions. From: red sox 777 | Posted: 11/6/2006 11:51:01 AM | Message Detail Samus with 54.00% Hoping the Zero Suit will really hurt Samus. --- "........!" ~Magus From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 11/6/2006 12:15:54 PM | Message Detail Samus, with TJF in her FAVOR? I never thought I'd see the day! Though to be fair Tifa looks very good as well. And will enough have viewed the Brawl trailers to know who that is? I'll say Samus with 57.91% --- thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives From: BeTheMan | Posted: 11/6/2006 5:18:05 PM | Message Detail Tifa without the babe advantage = major ouchies. Change: Samus with 61.50% --- ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 11/6/2006 5:31:06 PM | Message Detail Samus with TJF against Tifa? o_o But Samus is hard to recognize in that picture, so the pick remains low... Samus with 56% --- Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_> If you want to see the exact numbers people were putting up before the match you can do so here and on the page after this one. http://oraclechallenge.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31524584&page=3 --- The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 5:11:32 PM | message detail |
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I already looked through the old oracle topic. It seems that the picks
before and after the pic were about the same. People were like "OMG
SAMUS GETS TJF AGAINST TIFA, BUT IT's BALANCED OUT BY HER BEING
SLIGHTLY LESS RECOGNIZABLE" --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 5:13:19 PM | message detail |
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Also, looking through apparently I decided that it didn't make a
difference at the time, since I didn't even bother changing my pick
after the pic came out. Or maybe I just didn't have the time I don't know >_> --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 5:17:17 PM | message detail |
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I probably wouldn't have changed it myself, because I tend to side with
the null hypothesis when it comes to pics - I assume they won't have an
impact unless that picture has shown to in the past. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| BDawg | Posted 10/28/2007 6:24:34 PM | message detail |
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Well, as this poll closes I'd say Squall is a real threat for the
finals now. But if you believe in that L-block stuff this result is
certainly fine for it. I defintely hold that whoever gets through this
pack has the advantage in the semis, no weak sauce Chief+friend
breaking into my finals. It would be too hilarious if Cloud looks like
a Link challenger with Sephiroth dragging him down in the semis, and
then gets kicked in the balls in the finals with a leech (Squall) still
dragging him down. Obviously it wouldn't be as much but in this example
let's just say he barely loses. --- Should I start running now? |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 6:50:18 PM | message detail |
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I'd take Squall over Sonic in a one-on-one now; next round is up for grabs, although Snake probably has first. As for tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if Cloud breaks 45%, or if Ryu takes second. 45% probably about what he needs for me to think of him as a serious contender to beat Link in the finals. Clinkeroth has shown a somewhat surprising trend of barely dropping despite having significantly stronger opponents- 45% on Crono/Vincent/Zero seems way better than 51% on Vincent/Bidoof/Zelda, and of course 49% on Auron/Ryu/Marcus seems better than 56% on Marcus/Ocelot/Kefka. Marcus Fenix took second in Cloud's second round poll- and finished last by a landslide in his third round match. And Cloud only fell 7%. Marcus's percentage of Cloud/Marcus votes in round 2 was 21.75%; in round 3, it was 19.48%, despite the introduction of Auron into the poll, who you'd think would hurt Cloud more than Marcus! --- 8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 6:52:34 PM | message detail |
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He needs 45% for you to seriously consider him? Geez talk about high freaking standards --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| transience | Posted 10/28/2007 7:04:17 PM | message detail |
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eh MM = Vincent Samus > Crono Ryu > Zero if Cloud hits 50%, put me on the Cloud > Link train. well, put me on the "okay, okay, it might happen" train. --- "i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/28/2007 7:05:19 PM | message detail |
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so how about sonic sucking it up today --- CB6 - 242/368; Oracle - 30th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| transience | Posted 10/28/2007 7:05:31 PM | message detail |
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actually, that came out wrong.. 45% and he's a legit threat. I just was comparing his performance to Link's. --- "i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage |
| ZFS | Posted 10/28/2007 7:08:40 PM | message detail |
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holy crap tran what --- "With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man." |
| ZFS | Posted 10/28/2007 7:11:14 PM | message detail |
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Ah, nevermind. But anything above 40%+ here is good enough for me to consider him a threat, although by no means a "lock," to win. If he gets 45%, I'd feel safe in calling him a definite favorite. His pack is much stronger than the one Link had. --- "With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man." |
| BDawg | Posted 10/28/2007 7:15:41 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Sonic is getting ripped pretty bad in these waning hours. The lead could drop below two thousand. --- Should I start running now? |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 7:20:00 PM | message detail |
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We're only going to get one pic per match for this round right? At
least based on previous contests I mean. For some reason I can't
remember if we've had user made pics without multiple pictures for the
match as well. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 7:21:52 PM | message detail |
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I don't think there's been a case with only a single user made pic
being chosen. We're pretty much guaranteed to have multiples unless
Bacon just runs things differently --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 7:25:05 PM | message detail |
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Games only had one user-made pic in the Quarterfinals. We haven't had
user-made pics in the quarterfinals since then, and we've always had
multiple user-made pics other than that one round. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/28/2007 7:28:15 PM | message detail |
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Yeah last year the semifinals had 4 pics each, & I think the final had like 9-12 pics iirc. --- Current Points: 279 -- 8th on Leaderboard 11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 7:29:58 PM | message detail |
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In the games contest, yeah. I forgot about games. Though I think in
that one the only match that had multiple pictures was the final --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Yesmar | Posted 10/28/2007 7:30:28 PM | message detail |
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You overstating your cases must be a pathological thing. May I remind you that virtually NO ONE expected Samus to be hurt by that picture, let alone the hurt be that severe. The explanation is after-the-fact; unlike, say, Solid ****. Even before the first vote was cast in its first appearance people were calling for Snake underperforming. And the biggest argument against ZSS (not that I even want to delve further into this argument, but because you like being contrary SO much)? As people have already pointed out, Cloud/Samus 2k4. Since people have already posted the gist of what was said prior to Samus Vs. Tifa, I won't repeat it, but while people didn't think it would make that much of a difference I don't see how that's relevant to anything. If anything that shows a inductive line of thought rather than an deductive one, which in this case seems more logically sound. And the Oracle does not show people calling for Snake underperforming either due to SOlid ****. In his match against Frog he was expected to get 59.14%. It seems awfully hypocritical, to me, for you to act as if creativename is being contrary for the sake of it, when Occam's Razor would say that Samus bombed because of her picture, and you still keep implying that there MIGHT be some other reason. What exactly do you propose instead, then? --- "Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!" |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 7:34:03 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I think of Crono/Vincent as being about equal to Samus/Megaman
after you account for Samus/MM LFF, and Ryu and Zero being similar in
strength. I do think Link got some SFF on Zero, and that was likely
balanced out by LFF. --- 8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 7:35:30 PM | message detail |
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So there's LFF between Samus and Megaman but not Crono and Vincent? --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 7:37:10 PM | message detail |
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Yes, but I guess we'll see in a couple of hours. I could be totally
wrong, but I'd be very surprised if Cloud doesn't break 40% tomorrow,
and I think he has a great shot at 45%. --- 8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 7:38:53 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 7:39:10 PM | message detail |
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Well I guess Sub-Zero doing worse than Scorpion against what is arguably weaker competition overall does support that --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Kaxon | Posted 10/28/2007 7:43:09 PM | message detail |
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Someone may have already pointed this out (I haven't really kept up
with the topic), but tomorrow is GameFAQs contest match #500. Kinda
hard to believe these have been going on for that long. --- I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/28/2007 7:47:03 PM | message detail |
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I'm expecting Cloud to disappoint the board tomorrow. 45%, 50%? He couldn't hit 50% against Marcus Fenix and a SFFed Auron.
The Samus/Mega Man overlap is being overestimated as well. Samus/Mega
Man/Yoshi/Scorpion had the highest vote totals of the round, outside of
the Sephiroth/Mario match. Yeah, weekend match, but neither of these
last two have even come close. If Cloud can break 40% here I'll keep him in the running for challenging Link. He just doesn't have anything going for him in this match. No company LFF to help out, no Zero here to SFF into the ground. And the strongest competition we've seen. You could compare Mega Man and Crono, but Samus kills Vincent and I'd easily take Ryu over Zero. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2007 7:49:05 PM | message detail |
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It seems awfully hypocritical, to me, for you to act as if
creativename is being contrary for the sake of it, when Occam's Razor
would say that Samus bombed because of her picture, and you still keep
implying that there MIGHT be some other reason. What exactly do you
propose instead, then? Did I never say that I didn't believe in the picture factor? Of course I didn't, far from it, the first damn thing I said was that I did. That doesn't mean that I'm 100% certain - that match may have just been a fluke, with no apparent reason whatsoever (and we HAVE had plenty of those, perhaps my mistake here is comparing to something the stats topic has so universally embraced like Samus/Tifa rather than another match). My only point that if we get something like Sonic > Snake next round, people are going to be like, "see, told you Squall/Sora doesn't have much overlap!" But that's just not true. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 7:52:56 PM | message detail |
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Anything close to 40% and Cloud's a threat, at 40% he becomes a pretty serious threat. At 45% the contest is basically done. Really don't see 45% happening, that's too crazy. Cloud could get under 45% and still end up beating Link comfortably. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 8:03:53 PM | message detail |
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Well I guess Sub-Zero doing worse than Scorpion against what is arguably weaker competition overall does support that That's an interesting point. You're talking about Samus/Mega Man LFF? Still, Cloud getting 45% would have to make him a big favorite. Because I think it's unlikely he gets that high. That doesn't mean that I'm 100% certain - that match may have just been a fluke, with no apparent reason whatsoever (and we HAVE had plenty of those, perhaps my mistake here is comparing to something the stats topic has so universally embraced like Samus/Tifa rather than another match). A picture induced fluke. Which we've had plenty of. And while not "100% certain", come on, let's have some logic and common sense here. No need to try to downplay the blatantly obvious staring-at-you-in-the-face thing. That was not some 4-way match where all sorts of weird **** could happen. My only point that if we get something like Sonic > Snake next round, people are going to be like, "see, told you Squall/Sora doesn't have much overlap!" But that's just not true. If we get Sonic>Snake, then it surely would look like Squall wasn't hurt by Sora, why would you think otherwise? But I really, really doubt either Sonic or Squall can finish first there. Also what does this have to do with ZSS? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 8:06:28 PM | message detail |
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My only point that if we get something like Sonic > Snake next
round, people are going to be like, "see, told you Squall/Sora doesn't
have much overlap!" But that's just not true. I think it'd be more like "see, told you Snake/Squall had overlap." --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 8:09:11 PM | message detail |
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I really don't know how you can think Squall doesn't have overlap with
Sora, when Squall has been cited numerous times as benefiting from KHF.
I think we all know my personal stance on that (or you should!), but I
really don't think anyone else is on board with me there. So really,
how you can support one, and deny the other is pretty insane. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 8:20:58 PM | message detail |
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I'm cautious about Squall > Sonic still, even if it looks all but
certain. Remember how big of a lock Solid > Hayabusa was after his
first round match? How about the turnaround in Luigi/Ganon after Mudkip
left? Compare how Leon did last round to this round in regards to
Pikachu... ...all I'm saying is that the introduction and removal of some shared fanbases does not always go the way we would think it would go in this format. When you consider that Solid is going to take a hit from Sonic's Brawl-hype, Squall HAS to be the favorite over Sonic next round. I just don't think it's a gimme yet due to the nature of this format. It's scary to say that after today's match. Perhaps I'm just in denial...? I dunno, but this format's got me scared enough to wait until the match comes. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 8:23:40 PM | message detail |
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I thought with user submitted pics we wouldn't have to wait until 10 minutes before the match to get pics. darn you bacon --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 8:24:59 PM | message detail |
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I think it's pretty likely that Squall and Sora have overlap. I don't
know if I would take Squall>Sonic 1 on 1, we've seen Sonic might not
be great in this format. Also for all we know Squall is a beast in this
format and has been killed by fanbase split at every turn (though I
doubt it). I'm cautious about Squall > Sonic still, even if it looks all but certain I don't think it's certain. I think Sonic is still a slight favorite over Squall. After all, there's always the chance Sora actually LFFs Sonic more than Squall :) Highly doubtful, but who knows. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/28/2007 8:28:59 PM | message detail |
| FFVIII does have the love it or hate it thing going, like Master Chief and Pikachu. Don't know if that applies to Squall though. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 8:31:14 PM | message detail |
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Pics are up --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
