GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 536
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/28/2007 11:55:48 AM | message detail |
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Eh, we'll see. I don't think Sephiroth is going to hurt Vincent all
that much in the match. If anything, it'll be the other way around. --- CB6 - 242/368; Oracle - 30th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 11:58:12 AM | message detail |
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Sephiroth hurt Cloud a huge amount in the BR last year. Why wouldn't he hurt Vincent even more? --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 12:01:08 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1002 Eh, not so sure about that. Well, look at it this way. Link + Mario will add up to about 60%, right? (Link > Sephy by near that amount, Mario > Vincent by near that amount, more Sephy-Vincent overlap) If you assume a 62.53-37.47% split between them like that match suggests, Mario finishes with about 22.48%. Then you have 40% to divide amongst Sephiroth and Vincent. I say Vincent gets about 12% of that. ^ That stuff is totally inaccurate, but I just can't imagine a realistic percentage split where Vincent beats Mario. --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:02:13 PM | message detail |
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That's the exact same reason I think Vincent's going to hurt Sephiroth
- LFF (though I hate using the term because it's dirty and disgusting). --- CB6 - 242/368; Oracle - 30th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 12:04:03 PM | message detail |
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That's the exact same reason I think Vincent's going to hurt
Sephiroth - LFF (though I hate using the term because it's dirty and
disgusting). Indeed. I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Mario closer to Sephiroth than last round. --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2007 12:04:13 PM | message detail |
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I guess it's the ASV that's kicking in. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:05:07 PM | message detail |
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I also don't think Link and Mario get 60% of the pie in that match. Probably closer to 55%. I have no problem seeing something like... Link 38% Sephiroth 27% Vincent 18% Mario 17% --- CB6 - 242/368; Oracle - 30th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 10/28/2007 12:06:20 PM | message detail |
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From KleenexTissue50 Posted 10/28/2007 3:02:13 PM #254 That's the exact same reason I think Vincent's going to hurt Sephiroth - LFF (though I hate using the term because it's dirty and disgusting). Then call it what it is. SFF. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:08:14 PM | message detail |
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Ummm...have you people NOT seen what Link does with Nintendo SFF. He'd
easily skew most of the Nintendo vote in his direction. And I don't see
Sephiroth taking THAT MUCH away from Vincent. ...I can't say its an automatic thing, but Mario/Vincent's order is not set in stone at all. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:08:16 PM | message detail |
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Link wouldn't get 60% on Sephiroth- he couldn't manage 55% the last
time they met, and he didn't break 54% on Cloud last year. And Mario
doesn't get close to 60% on Vincent. Also, remember that Vincent held
up quite well in the FFVII party member poll- he got 18% in a poll
where Cloud got 30%. I'm thinking something like: Link 41% Sephiroth 28% Vincent 16% Mario 15% Actually, I can see Mario and Vincent going even lower than that, considering Mario only put up 11% against Link/Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake last year. --- 8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono. |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/28/2007 12:09:32 PM | message detail |
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Consider that Mario got 24% of the Link/Mario votes in last year's
battle royal against Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake. I don't see Mario doing
anywhere near as well as you guys are predicting. Still think he'll beat out Vincent though, just because he's so far behind the rest. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 12:13:18 PM | message detail |
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I think the only "breather" we're getting in the next four days is
Link's match. Everything else is up in the air. Even Mega Man has a
decent shot. Hell, I'm willing to give Ryu a shot right now. I give Ryu a much better shot than I do MM in that match. I actually had Ryu advancing there in my bracket for a while before going back to Cloud > Samus. I don't actually think it will happen, but I think it has a better chance of happening than MM taking 2nd, even though I think Ryu finishes 4th. Anyway, I'm not sure why you're so deadset against Solid/Squall LFF creative. We've seen over the last few days LFF coming out of places where it wasn't definitively going to happen. We've seen FF/MG go funny before, and we've seen matches where the two entrants obviously have a significant degree of overlap, yet the %'s still look extremely normal. Squall/Solid is going to be the largest overlap in next rounds match-up... I really don't see how anyone could even try to deny it. Whether or not that stops Snake from getting first, or allows Sonic to finish first, or any other result is certainly debatable, but really what you're saying just doesn't make sense. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 12:15:27 PM | message detail |
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I also don't think Link and Mario get 60% of the pie in that match. Probably closer to 55%. I have no problem seeing something like... Link 38% Sephiroth 27% Vincent 18% Mario 17% I would be very surprised to see them taking only 55% of the pie, when Vincent adds much less to Sephy's voting pool than Mario does to Link's (Link beat Sephiroth with 54.94%). Other than that, your Sephy-Vincent split assumes a ~ 60-40% split one on one. Well I guess that could happen, though I'd expect Sephiroth to get a bit more. Lastly, your Link-Mario assumes a ~ 69-31 split one on one. I guess it could happen, but with how Mario has grown these past years I'd sooner expect him to come closer to Link than vice versa. There's a lot of ifs and buts, and everything has to go in Vincent's favour. It could happen, but I wouldn't count on it. --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/28/2007 12:16:25 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and this match is really interesting as far seeing how weekend trends go. Night vote went from 3am-7am or so. Morning vote went from 7am-noonish I'd soon. It looks like the biggest difference from a weekday match is that the after school vote is spread throughout the whole day, which should be expected. Looks like Squall could stall, or even cut off some votes, for the rest of the match here. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:17:15 PM | message detail |
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Also, if no one is paying attention, Squall and Sonic just went about even the last hour. --- CB6 - 242/368; Oracle - 30th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 12:18:35 PM | message detail |
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Consider that Mario got 24% of the Link/Mario votes in last year's
battle royal against Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake. I don't see Mario doing
anywhere near as well as you guys are predicting. Wow, you're right. This is a big argument towards Vincent > Mario. I guess he has a good chance after all. My money's on Mario though =p --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
| ZFS | Posted 10/28/2007 12:22:04 PM | message detail |
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I'm skeptical of how much -- if any -- SFF will be present in
Snake/Squall next round. The only reason I'd give it some serious
thought is because this contest seems more prone to have it. Last year
certainly looked normal, and if little happened there, I wouldn't
expect a whole lot to happen here. --- "With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man." |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 12:24:28 PM | message detail |
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I'm skeptical of how much -- if any -- SFF will be present in
Snake/Squall next round. The only reason I'd give it some serious
thought is because this contest seems more prone to have it. Last year
certainly looked normal, and if little happened there, I wouldn't
expect a whole lot to happen here. The difference is though that where an even split of SFF wouldn't have made any difference last year (1 on 1), it certainly does in a poll that adds any largely independent 3rd character (say, Sonic). Because if there was in fact SFF evenly split, it'll hurt both Squall and Snake. --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
| smitelf | Posted 10/28/2007 12:33:25 PM | message detail |
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I meant that the biggest difficulty in accurately predicting
Squall's percentage today was not Aeris being out of the poll, but
Sonic being in it. I disagree. Why would Sonic's presence make Squall's performance hard to predict? The two are unrelated characters, so just plug their numbers in to Morgoth's magic formula and you've already got a decent prediction right there. And no matter how close you were to predicting Squall, this is about the relation Sonic/Squall, and you can't deny Squall being frighteningly close to Sonic. Yes, I can. Squall is not frighteningly close to Sonic. I'd still put Sonic > Squall in a 1vs1 bracket with confidence. Add Sora, and the "background noise" becomes pretty damn significant. Hardly discountable, I'm sure. I doubt that Sora is adding more than a couple percent to Squall if any SFF is indeed taking place, so considering the variation in where Squall could have potentially been going into this match (depending on how much Aeris was LFFing him), it doesn't matter much. Let's take the 4-pack Link-Vincent-Zelda-Bidoof. You then replace Zelda by a character of equal strength that is unrelated to any of the other characters (as is relevant in our current discussion). Does Link get a higher percentage? Very doubtful. But does the character that is of equal strength finish with just 8%? No, of course not. Because that's were your wrong -- it finishes way higher than that, and whatever percentage it is, it hurts Link just as much as Vincent and Bidoof. How am I wrong, since I agree that the other character would get more than 8%? But, in comparison with having Zelda in the poll, Link would be hurt more, relatively, by an unrelated character being in the poll than the others would be. As a result, if you take a character of Zelda-esque strength and replace it in the 4-pack, Link finishes with a lower percentage, but so do all the others. They would go down relatively less than Link would. And compared to having Zelda in the poll, Link will be beating Vincent and Bidoof worse. No, again, Link would fall farther. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! "I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:40:05 PM | message detail |
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That's not how SFF works. Zelda is taking nearly all her votes from
Link. Take her out of the poll and Link gains a lot more than Vincent
and Bidoof. Then add another character of Zelda's strength with no
connection to any of them, and Link/Vincent/Bidoof are hurt
proportionally. Link takes the most damage, because he had the highest
percentage to start with. But adding another totally unrelated
character doesn't change Link's percentage of Link/Vincent votes, and
removing SFF'd Zelda increases it. Link/Zelda SFF is helping Link in the sense that his percentage is higher as a result, but is hurting Link in the sense that his percentage of Link/Vincent votes is lower. --- 8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 12:42:43 PM | message detail |
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With regard to Seph/Vincent...Seph hurt Cloud by 12%. Do you people seriously expect Vincent to hold up better? No, again, Link would fall farther. This round's match without Zelda proves you wrong there. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| smitelf | Posted 10/28/2007 12:52:34 PM | message detail |
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That's not how SFF works. Zelda is taking nearly all her votes from
Link. Take her out of the poll and Link gains a lot more than Vincent
and Bidoof. You're confusing SFF and LFF. This round's match without Zelda proves you wrong there. I don't see how. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! "I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:57:47 PM | message detail |
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To me, LFF is just a specific form of SFF- whatever happens when 2 or more characters share a fanbase. --- 8/22/03. 10/24/07. Remember Crono. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 12:59:16 PM | message detail |
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LFF is what happens when there's a split, SFF is when that split
significantly improves one characters standing in relation to what it
normally would be. imho --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 1:01:43 PM | message detail |
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Link gained more from Zelda's absence this round than he should have.
He went from being projected to get 65% on Vincent to getting 68% on
Vincent. That's pretty decisively in favor of Link being hurt more by
LFF than he gained from LFF. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 1:03:08 PM | message detail |
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Or, y'know, that Crono/Vincent split everyone was talking about before the match. ...and him possibly SFFing Zero. Really, trying to draw much from that match isn't gonna accomplish much. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 1:03:27 PM | message detail |
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Which of the Sweet Sixteen does not belong? Samus Aran Mega Man Cloud Strife Ryu Sephiroth Mario Link Vincent Valentine Master Chief Luigi Pikachu Dante Solid Snake L-Block Sonic the Hedgehog Squall Leonhart Pikachu. He has little strength of his own and only got this far thanks to lucky bracket placing and LFF. --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 1:03:48 PM | message detail |
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*gained from SFF --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 1:09:47 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2007 1:42:16 PM | message detail |
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Came into this match hoping Sonic would demolish to give me confidence for next round... but this result is almost as good. I can feel the stretching from here... the kind of logic you're advocating could have made Sonic look good no matter WHAT the outcome here today was. Same goes for the after-the-fact rationalizing that Sora isn't hurting Squall much at all - if you called that pre-match, then yeah, good for you, but most of the bandwagon I've seen on that front has come as a result of this performance (rather than believing Squall could ever have a shot at Sonic in this format) rather than an independent belief. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/28/2007 1:43:10 PM | message detail |
| You know I agreed to that in my post already, so I
don't know why you even bothered to bring it up, but ok if it makes you
feel better. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 1:48:48 PM | message detail |
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The better Sora does here, the better it looks for Squall, since Squall
will be taking more of Sora's votes than anyone else. >_> --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2007 1:51:59 PM | message detail |
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Admitting that it might be because of BRACKETS is one thing, but it
just seems to me like even that kind of perspective is hard to maintain
when you could apply it to even the most extreme scenarios this match
could have produced (i.e. today). Yeah, there's a certain downside to
Snake if this is all Squall being strong rather than Sonic being weak
(especially since Squall won't be held back by Sora next round), and
it's why no result is a lock next round (heck, unlike others, I won't
even rule out Squall coming in first), but it's hard to overlook what
this means for Sonic. ...then again, we might have a Samus/Tifa scenario on our hands here today. There *is* the chance that this is just rather flukish... though that implies that Samus/Tifa might NOT have been the result of the picture, and most people here don't seem ready to believe that's a possibility... --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 1:53:33 PM | message detail |
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console it's not because Squall - Snake went as expected, that there was no SFF. Much less should the fact that the match went as expected be considered as an indication that there was in fact, no SFF. What? Let there be no doubt though, that when comparing their current-round performances, Squall is easily the more impressive character. I meant this round. L-Block's performance against Solid **** makes L-Block look weaker than Squall (which I said even before Squall impressed today). So yes. Doesn't mean Squall will finish above him next round though, I think L-Block will be the favorite to finish ahead of Squall. That is just wrong, sorry. No, it is not wrong. Snake/Squall SFF originated as a way to explain Squall's boost while desperately denying Kingdom Hearts effect. You are talking about something completely different, as you noted later. Yes, but you're also saying that that match is what caused it, which is wrong. It ended it, more than anything. It didn't end it. Plenty of people have talked about Snake/Squall SFF in this very topic. So, you acknowledge the possiblity of MGS-FF SFF? There's no evidence against it, so one can't argue against it too much. There's isn't really that much evidence in favor it either, but it is possible to argue for. Anyway, Snake - Squall was a perfectly normal result -- we agree on this. Then what does it have to do with what you were talking about? Do you not consider Sonic > Snake > Squall to be a more feasible result? Because that's what I meant with Snake - Squall SFF. Hell no. As incredibly unpredictable as this format is, I would be stunned if Sonic placed above Snake. So all this time, you've been arguing for Squall/Snake split hurting Snake against Sonic? You need to focus more on L-Block, IMO Sonic is not winning that match. Sonic or Squall finishing 1st would be the only thing that could happen in that match that would honestly surprise me. Squall is way more likely to finish ahead of Sonic next round than Sonic is to finish ahead of Snake. I'd rather consider Mario > Sephiroth that Vincent > Mario. That's just not happening. While it's true Link didn't SFF Mario in 2k2, he did in the Battle Royale. Mario>Sephiroth is not happening, Vincent>Mario has an excellent shot. Vincent wouldn't even be all that much behind Mario 1-on-1. 56-44 maybe. Vincent could be smashed by Sephiroth here, but there's a chance he actually holds up well. If Sephiroth isn't as good at SFF as Link (and we have plenty of reason to believe Link is better at SFF, after he is the King of SFF), then Mario will suffer more than Vincent, and Vincent's not all that far from Mario to begin with. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 1:57:22 PM | message detail |
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Portugal Anyway, I'm not sure why you're so deadset against Solid/Squall LFF creative. We've seen over the last few days LFF coming out of places where it wasn't definitively going to happen. I already said the Snake/Squall LFF could be present. But the Snake/Squall SFF theory failed. That whole theory was all about predicting a Snake overperformance, which for a short time looked like in happened, but obviously in retrospect did not. It's right there last year. Squall/Solid is going to be the largest overlap in next rounds match-up... I really don't see how anyone could even try to deny it. No particular reason for it to be any larger than Snake/Sonic, or even larger than Sonic/Squall, for goodness sake. If you wanna talk about "this contest has wacky LFF", Sonic/Squall LFF is as likely as anything. Doesn't mean anybody should buy it for a second. I would expect Squall/Snake to overlap more than Squall/Sonic certainly because of console overlap, however it shouldn't be anything special. Not enough for Sonic to take advantage of at any rate. but really what you're saying just doesn't make sense. Oh come on now. Nothing I said was even debate-worthy. HM I'm skeptical of how much -- if any -- SFF will be present in Snake/Squall next round. It will be more than either overlaps with L-Block. Which is a benefit for L-Block. It won't be enough to help Sonic against Snake though. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/28/2007 2:00:32 PM | message detail |
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I don't see how you can admit the possibility of FF-MGS overlap and the
deny the possibility of Snake-Squall overlap. One implies the other. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/28/2007 2:03:41 PM | message detail |
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Match LVII: Samus Aran vs Mega Man vs Cloud Strife vs Ryu Past Matches Round 3 Samus Aran - 33.10% Mega Man - 30.43% Yoshi - 19.13% Scorpion - 17.34% Cloud Strife - 49.59% Ryu - 20.25% Auron - 18.16% Marcus Fenix - 12.00% Analysis Welcome to round four, with just a week left we’re in our final rounds and with some of the strongest characters left in the bracket this should be an interesting week. Last round even with Yoshi in the poll Mega Man wasn’t able to defeat Samus in the match making things look bad for him this round. Cloud tore through his four-pack though he did have one of the weakest characters left in round three plus a SFF character as some of his opponents. Also Ryu being as lucky as Pikachu was able to benefit from SFF Auron and was able to steal second. Cloud will take first in this match, he is considered to be one of the strongest characters in the entire bracket plus he seems to have gain strength since last year so unless there is a hidden Metroid Prime 3 boost that Yoshi hid last round I don’t expect Cloud to be in much trouble in this match. Despite getting high percents over the past three rounds with three noble nine characters present plus a near-elite I’d be surprised if Cloud was able to break 40% here. Despite what my bracket says Samus will probably take second place. This time there is no Nintendo characters holding her back and even last round she was able to soundly beat Mega Man with Yoshi interfering. Samus hasn’t really shown that she boosted since last year despite Metroid Prime 3 which brings me to question the popularity of the Metroid series and wonder how much the SSB series has helped her. With even more competition this round I wouldn’t be surprised to see Samus drop well below 25%. Mega Man will get third in the most stacked match we’ve had so far (though tomorrow will be even worse) though it won’t be like he’ll be blown away. One of the major reasons why I had Mega Man in second in this poll was the presence of Bowser and since Bowser isn’t here and worse Mega Man couldn’t beat Samus despite Yoshi being in the poll. The only way Mega Man could sneak the win is if Yoshi affected him more than Samus, but that would mean that the Mega Man series would have more in common with Nintendo than the Metroid series. However after seeing what has happen over the past few days anything could happen. Ryu’s luck has ran out, being a part of two SFF matches where he benefited (though he would’ve beaten Bowser with or without the SFF) and being in a match with three noble nine characters he’ll probably look just as bad as Marcus Fenix did last round. It has been a nice run for Ryu and he has indeed redeemed himself from his performance back in 2k6. Cloud should have no problems taking first while Samus should easily take second. The first two matches of the round are expected to go as what people predicted though the last two matches anything could happen. Mega Man could take second though that would cause a surprise almost as huge as Pikachu winning last round. charmander6000’s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Mega Man charmander6000’s Prediction: Cloud - 38.16%, Samus - 24.27%, Mega Man - 21.73%, Ryu - 15.84% --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 56: Sonic > Squall Points: 237/368 |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 2:04:00 PM | message detail |
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One thing - I think people really need to stop using "SFF" when they
really mean leeching/split. Please, if you hate the term LFF for
whatever reason, make up your own magic word! :) Call it "split SFF" or
"leeching" or monkeylovingapples or whatever, but please try to avoid
saying "SFF" when you don't mean one-sided SFF and instead mean
voterbase split, because it's just going to confuse people and we'll
end up going around in circles. smitelf But, in comparison with having Zelda in the poll, Link would be hurt more, relatively, by an unrelated character being in the poll than the others would be. I'm not sure about this. I'd think the opposite was more likely - that Zelda's presence hurt Link. Though in regards to how that makes Link look much better in that match, remember than if you do the same to Cloud/Auron...Link don't look so great anymore :) Zelda/Link of course should overlap much than than Cloud/Auron, but Auron was much stronger post-SFF than Zelda. So in the end we don't know exactly where we're at. KH ...then again, we might have a Samus/Tifa scenario on our hands here today. There *is* the chance that this is just rather flukish... though that implies that Samus/Tifa might NOT have been the result of the picture, and most people here don't seem ready to believe that's a possibility... How does this even begin to relate to Samus/Tifa? And if you don't think Samus/Tifa was due to the pic factor, then I would have to say that you have a highly irrational predisposition against pic factor. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 2:04:21 PM | message detail |
| when squall takes second in the sweet 16 next round i will lol @ all of you. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2007 2:08:21 PM | message detail |
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How does this even begin to relate to Samus/Tifa? It's a result where a character gets MUCH closer to a Noble Niner than most would have considered possible... that's all. And if you don't think Samus/Tifa was due to the pic factor, then I would have to say that you have a highly irrational predisposition against pic factor. And you'd be wrong, as you well know. I believe in pic factor for Samus/Tifa, but it's not like there aren't arguments against it. We've seen ZSS all of ONCE too... if she weren't to underperform with it in the future, what then? --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 2:09:09 PM | message detail |
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I can't wait for Cloud to break 40% tomorrow. --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 2:12:27 PM | message detail |
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I don't see how you can admit the possibility of FF-MGS overlap and
the deny the possibility of Snake-Squall overlap. One implies the other. Not even close to being true. The only reason to believe in FF/MGS SFF is because MGS has tended to underperform expectations in some matches against FF (though they're all pretty debatable on a case-by-case basis). This did *not* happen in the actual match that Snake and Squall have already had. If you want to argue with the logic that debatable instances of FF/MGS SFF somehow imply Snake/Squall SFF despite undebatable lack thereof in their actual match, then you really need to rethink how you're looking at things. Snake/Squall should overlap more than any other two characters in that match because they're the only ones who share primary consoles, but it has nothing to do with actual noteworthy SFF between them. It's just that the other two characters are more independent. It shouldn't be much more than the very minor (if any) Kratos/Snake overlap (though it should be greater to some extent, as Kratos wasn't around during the PSX era like Squall and Snake). Also I'm getting tired of discussing this Snake/Squall issue, which again, is a myth that was totally undone in the original context that anyone cared about it with (that being 1-on-1 matches), and yet is still hanging around purely because people refuse to let preconceptions go. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Christmas_Eve | Posted 10/28/2007 2:16:21 PM | message detail |
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You guys underestimating Squall make me laugh. Squall will take 2nd with 27 percent. washansee. --- http://youtube.com/watch?v=nhiPgimRz_k |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 2:17:30 PM | message detail |
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That reminds me I need to take a shower --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 2:22:51 PM | message detail |
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And you'd be wrong, as you well know. I know that I'm right actually. You really have a problem with acknowledging the impact of pictures if you think Samus struggles with Tifa normally in that match last year. I believe in pic factor for Samus/Tifa, but it's not like there aren't arguments against it. We've seen ZSS all of ONCE too... if she weren't to underperform with it in the future, what then? What is this? "if she didn't underperform with it in the future"? What if we never saw Solid **** again, to this day would you be denying Snake/Frog was a pic-induced fluke? What if Mario doesn't get SFFed by Link tomorrow? "what if"?? I mean, yes you are right that there is only one data point for that special case...but the general case of pics blatantly hurting has happened sooo many times, and ZSS hurting Samus so much couldn't possibly make any more sense, given that it doesn't look like the "Samus" people know. Really, I have a deep problem respecting disbelief in pic factor for that match. (BTW, to actually answer your dubious what if scenario, post-Brawl ZSS logically shouldn't affect Samus as much as pre-Brawl ZSS; before that match, a relatively small minority had any idea ZSS existed, it should be more well-known post-Brawl - though it would still likely hurt her, given that we know how highly sensitive she already is to it) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 2:26:33 PM | message detail |
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Squall has a very real shot at 2nd next match. If he did get 27%, that would prove that Sora was killing him here. I think 27% is about an upper bound for him though, I'm thinking 20%-24% unless he suffers the weakest-character-collapse. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 2:27:12 PM | message detail |
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That match will look like this 25% 25% 25% 25% >_> --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 2:27:49 PM | message detail |
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Well ok make one 26% and one 24%. Because Sonic is getting last baby --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 2:51:39 PM | message detail |
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I disagree. Why would Sonic's presence make Squall's performance
hard to predict? The two are unrelated characters, so just plug their
numbers in to Morgoth's magic formula and you've already got a decent
prediction right there. Sonic's presence makes it hard when basing your prediction off the previous round. You're better off using just Morgoth's formula, like you said. But it doesn't take Sora into account. Yes, I can. Squall is not frighteningly close to Sonic. I'd still put Sonic > Squall in a 1vs1 bracket with confidence. With confidence? How can you possibly say this? He's losing by about 2% and Sora has 20%. Seriously, even a 55% split in favour of Squall would be sufficient for him to beat Sonic. How can you honestly be confident about Sonic beating him one on one? I doubt that Sora is adding more than a couple percent to Squall if any SFF is indeed taking place, so considering the variation in where Squall could have potentially been going into this match (depending on how much Aeris was LFFing him), it doesn't matter much. What does Aeris has to do with anything? A couple of percents and Squall beats Sonic, period. How am I wrong, since I agree that the other character would get more than 8%? But, in comparison with having Zelda in the poll, Link would be hurt more, relatively, by an unrelated character being in the poll than the others would be. How would he be hurt more relatively, when Zelda hurts him with about 100% relatively? You're basically saying this random characters overlaps more with Link than Zelda does, when the whole idea behind the 3rd character is that it's independent of the other ones. They would go down relatively less than Link would. They would go down by an equal amount, which is good for Link since with Zelda in the poll, he was the only one going down. No, again, Link would fall farther. Yes, but as opposed to the 4-pack with Zelda, Bidoof and Vincent will be fall as well. So when you're talking relatively (which is really all that matters) Link would be beating Bidoof and Vincent down worse. As in : if you were to divide Link's percentage with Bidoof's, you would get a higher number with the Zelda-esque character instead of Zelda. --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 2:51:49 PM | message detail |
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So all this time, you've been arguing for Squall/Snake split hurting Snake against Sonic? I have, actually :p. You need to focus more on L-Block, IMO Sonic is not winning that match. Sonic or Squall finishing 1st would be the only thing that could happen in that match that would honestly surprise me. Yes, that was what I mentioned earlier. Where Snake has Squall, it'll be interesting to see how L-block holds up and who he'll hurt the most. No, it is not wrong. Snake/Squall SFF originated as a way to explain Squall's boost while desperately denying Kingdom Hearts effect. You are talking about something completely different, as you noted later. Heh. Do you define SFF as a Squall-Tidus esque scenario? Because in my book, SFF can look entirely different. While it's true Link didn't SFF Mario in 2k2, he did in the Battle Royale. Mario>Sephiroth is not happening, Vincent>Mario has an excellent shot. Yes that battle royale looks pretty bad for Mario. It's hard to discount Mario > Sephiroth as at least a possiblity though, there's no telling what Sephy'll do to him. Plus it's "only" Link this time. I think Mario'll redeem himself a bit. Snake/Squall should overlap more than any other two characters in that match because they're the only ones who share primary consoles, but it has nothing to do with actual noteworthy SFF between them Well, in a 4-way poll, overlap between 2 characters = LFF. Let's take the 4-pack Snake/Sonic/Squall/L-block, and put it in Morgoth's formula (giving them Xs of 37, 35, 33 and 28 respectively). Snake gets 28.79%, Sonic gets 26.63%, Squall gets 24.6% and L-block gets 19.98%. Now assume for a second a 10% SFF (or LFF, as you like to call it) between Snake-Squall. It splits perfectly even, like their match suggest. However, since the overlap, the Snake + Squall total is reduced by 10% (assuming, for a second, zero L-block - Sonic overlap). It splits evenly, cutting Snake down to 25.9%, and Squall to 22.41%. Like that, it is easy to see how a perfectly even SFF split can hurt them when you throw in characters of independent fanbases. Now there's no telling how badly they will hurt each other, and what L-block's part in all of it will be, but Sonic > Snake is definitely possible. --- 268/368. Today : Sonic > Squall Tomorrow : Cloud > Samus *One_Winged_Ange* |
