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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 536

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transience | Posted 10/28/2007 5:32:56 AM | message detail

yeah, I agree.

that said, Dante/MC trends are one reason why I think the overlap would be minimal.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 5:39:19 AM | message detail

Sonic's taking off now, but good God Squall. What a monster.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/28/2007 6:04:10 AM | message detail

Much better now. 100 vote gain in 20 minutes, should make this much more respectable in time. >_>

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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!

CP724 | Posted 10/28/2007 6:55:27 AM | message detail

What's with Sub-Zero? going from 55/45ish of Sonic/Sub votes to easily being doubled with the day vote to come - not to mention he has a decent picture this time as opposed to round 2. Surely this can't be brawl, if that was the case what does this say about squall? This contest makes no sense.

CP724 | Posted 10/28/2007 6:57:56 AM | message detail

PoP/Sonic Master system SFF? lol

Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/28/2007 7:03:31 AM | message detail

I wouldn't say that this makes "no sense".

See Ada Wong.

Like Ada, Sub-Zero benefits greatly in matches where he does not have truly powerful competition. In both round 1 and 2 the only strong opponent was Sonic and in this contest where 2nd place is still winning sub-zero has done very well for himself. But coming into round 3 he now has 3 opponents who would likely beat him in a 1v1 match, these results are no unexpected at all.

As far as Sub-Zero doing "Very Well" in rounds 1-2 as opposed to just "Good", I would say that is because sub-zero is one of those characters who has is own sort of "cool" factor that works something like SFF. In matches where he's not much stronger than his opposition (Duke, Gordon, PoP, Joe) he actually has a SFF-esque benefit of getting many more of the votes from shared fans as opposed to just slightly more.

What I call the "cool" factor is much akin the the "bad-ass" effect, only not quite as potent.

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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/28/2007 7:03:37 AM | message detail

Assuming Sub-Zero stayed the same since last year and there's no weirdness whatsoever in the format. (Both pretty dumb assumptions)

Then that puts Squall a little below Mario (even higher with Sora SFF? ) and Sonic around a little below Sephiroth? >_>

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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!

Valiant Squall | Posted 10/28/2007 7:03:59 AM | message detail

I see all this talk about Squall and Snake overlap... what about the Sonic and Snake overlap. One of them is going to get the Brawl vote.

Vs.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/28/2007 7:09:02 AM | message detail

There was some sort of MGS/Sonic overlap already before brawl.
This match next round could be really messy. >_>

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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!

Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/28/2007 7:10:35 AM | message detail

Not to mention L-Block stealing many votes for the epic lulz.

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2007 7:11:34 AM | message detail

There was some sort of MGS/Sonic overlap already before brawl.
This match next round could be really mess

Now you are just making up things Smurf.

And I still think that Sonic and Solid Snake easily advances in the next round. I'm more afraid of Squall than the L-Block.

And Sonic is doing great now, he have almost increased his lead with 300 votes in an hour.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 7:17:16 AM | message detail

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2007 7:21:39 AM | message detail

So wait...without Sora Squall really beat Sonic? Never thought that would actually happen.

Also, MC>Sonic gogogo
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 7:22:09 AM | message detail

Nice performance by Squall here. It's the weekend, so we can expect Sonic to dominate for another few hours before another shift in trends happens gradually around 1 PM. Sonic finished 1.71% above where he was now against Snake last year, and Squall gained 0.62%, both in weekend matches. Sonic's current percentage of Sonic/Squall votes: 51.16%.

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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 7:22:35 AM | message detail

and w/o subzero squall would be getting curb stomped, point being what
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2007 7:24:04 AM | message detail

I fail to see how Subby really affects this match either way.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 7:25:56 AM | message detail

He's getting tons of votes from Nintendo fans, many of which sonic usually gets.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/28/2007 7:26:16 AM | message detail

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2007 7:29:14 AM | message detail

Nintendo fans.

The same Nintendo that censored MK's blood, turning MK fans away from the system.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 7:29:35 AM | message detail

Sub Zero = Nostalgia character= SNES/GENESIS = Those fans vote for him most. Better? Sonic gets lots of nintendo fan votes due to recently appearing on GC/WII/DS/GBA a lot. Lots of those aren't going to him thanks to SZ
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 7:40:58 AM | message detail

My head's about to hurt.

Anyway, Squall's doing GREAT right now, though Sonic's about to make his big distance between them for the day. Between Solid/Sonic fighting for the Brawl vote, Squall/Sora probably holding Squall back some, Vincent/Squall being practically equal in 2k5 while Vincent got 47+% on Sonic head-to-head last year, and the only non-disappointing match from the Sonic Team this year was Sonic last round...Sonic is looking to be in ****ty position next round!

That's not counting what L-Block does, though honestly I don't see it with a chance of advancing again. It won't do bad at all, just...I can't see it advancing again.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 7:42:08 AM | message detail

1,000 vote-lead now, by the way...took long enough!
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Ed Bellis | Posted 10/28/2007 7:49:00 AM | message detail

uhhh Sora is coming back with the ASV just you wait

...uh, anyway, I wouldn't forget what happened to Squall both times Snake beat him. Whatever weird relationship exists between the two of them is probably going to hold Squall back a bit as well.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 7:54:22 AM | message detail

I don't think there was anything strange about last year Snake vs Squall..squall performed as expected according to Sonic vs Snake, and Sonic vs Vincent.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 7:58:59 AM | message detail

I'm not convinced Solid did anything funny to Squall in 2k2, and after seeing how powerful Solid was last year while Squall's done nothing but redeem his name since then, I'm not convinced there either. Squall still ended up just a little behind Vincent. Something funny happened in Solid /Yoshi which made it look like Squall = Yoshi, but that's Yoshi's fault...not Squall's or Solid's.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 7:59:29 AM | message detail

Woah, Squall did amazing overnight.

Morning is tearing him to pieces, but still, Squall is doing great.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 8:00:43 AM | message detail

Ya some thing did happen vs yoshi..Solid **** sprite vs SMW Yoshi happened.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 8:02:53 AM | message detail

Squall currently only needs 55.03% of Sora's votes to equal Sonic, if Sub-Zero's votes splite 50-50.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 8:03:41 AM | message detail

Btw, I see Sonic/Sora taking tons of % from squall. I still think sonic will get 35+. Depending on Sora, squall may finish below 30. So, it might turn out to look much better for sonic. Sora is very good in the afternoon.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 8:07:35 AM | message detail

Japago | Posted 10/28/2007 8:08:01 AM | message detail

Ya some thing did happen vs yoshi..Solid **** sprite vs SMW Yoshi happened

Yeah, Yoshi is probably a little overrated. I don't think it's by that much though. I mean, they used face pics in the background as well, and Snake's seemed to stand out to me.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 8:12:52 AM | message detail

It was Yoshi's best pic against arguably Solid's worst yet sprite-wise (though the backgrounds definitely eased that pain), plus Yoshi likely cut in on Solid's Brawl-strength too. Combine the two, and Yoshi likely over-performed. Granted, he did beat Dante last year, but something fishy still likely happened.
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creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 8:29:31 AM | message detail

That's not counting what L-Block does, though honestly I don't see it with a chance of advancing again. It won't do bad at all, just...I can't see it advancing again.

That's pretty bad logic dude and you know it ;)

That may change as the match gets closer to ending, but this Square SFF is wacky.

I think it's more the format.

Also regarding Squall/Snake SFF...I always said that was garbage. The only reason to believe it was wild misattribution of Kingdom Hearts factor to dumb Squall/Snake SFF.

However after Snake stomped Squall last year I wondered a bit if I was hugely wrong, and Snake did SFF Squall? But obviously that was not the case and Squall did awesome in that match in retrospect.

...perhaps even overperforming. So now people are saying Squall SFFed Snake!!

I mean good grief. Squall/Snake SFF is just another of those silly myths that people absolutely refuse to let go of for whatever reason.

Just let it go :)
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Yesmar | Posted 10/28/2007 8:37:36 AM | message detail

I've always thought that Squall was roughly accurate last year, because Squall/Snake SFF and Old Snake would have canceled each other out.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2007 8:40:00 AM | message detail

That's pretty bad logic dude and you know it ;)

Ha, what's bad logic is expecting L-Block to drop less than 3.63% when Solid gets a good picture, a second Noble Niner is introduced in Sonic, and Squall is thrown in after keeping fairly close to Sonic despite Sora!

I'll still be voting for the block though!
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 8:51:54 AM | message detail

past 3 updates have been pretty steady
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smitelf | Posted 10/28/2007 9:02:55 AM | message detail

People are way overreacting about Squall's performance. My original Oracle prediction for him was over 29.5% (and I curse myself for lowering it now).

I assumed little to no LFF or SFF between Squall and Sora in my original prediction, since that was the only thing that made the Squall/Sora/Aeris match look sane. So take that, and then assume a small rise for Squall. About 1 pt against BL? Not impossible given the absurd performances we've seen out of Cloud and Sephiroth, and Auron's performance in the first two rounds makes no sense unless he's risen more than that.

So if you take Sonic to be at 38.7 (i.e. he's not benefiting from Brawl in this round for whatever reason) and Squall to be at about 37.5 (a one point-ish boost from last year's x-stats), this is still pretty sane looking.

And Squall still wouldn't beat Sonic.
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Tohoya | Posted 10/28/2007 9:07:33 AM | message detail

Who woulda guessed before the contest that we'd be actively considering L-Block as a noble-nine breaker?
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 9:08:48 AM | message detail

You can't break it in this format..and if you could, Crono already did. Ouch, sonic ran off a cliff on that update.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 10/28/2007 9:14:20 AM | message detail

Pfft, we all know the only true Noble Nine breaker in this contest is Pikachu.
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smitelf | Posted 10/28/2007 9:18:19 AM | message detail

I find it funny that, in Squall's easiest match, he beat Aeris by 10%...then in a harder match, he beat Sora by 3.5% who beat Aeris by 10%...and in his hardest match, he's currently beating Sora by 12.5%. That may change as the match gets closer to ending, but this Square SFF is wacky.

The only way it makes sense is if the Squall/Aeris overlap is of Cloud/Sephiroth proportions. Squall also looks like he might be SFFing Sora a little bit to push past the 30% mark (and push Sora down below 20%), and was perhaps weakened too much by Aeris in the last match for that to be evident.

(But then, the weaker characters have almost all suffered in this format compared to how Morgoth's formula calculates their expected performance, so I don't think Sora has really fallen enough to prove that Squall is SFFing him. The one anomaly I can recall is Yuna, who held up well against three competitors who were stronger than her, but there was LFF in her favor that time.)
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SonicRaptor | Posted 10/28/2007 9:27:43 AM | message detail

If the contest ever returns to a one-on-one format, L-Block needs to be in just so we can all measure it's strength properly with minimal SFF.
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creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 9:29:13 AM | message detail

Well said smitelf.

Though there's still a fair shot of Squall finishing higher than Sonic next round. Hard to say.

Ha, what's bad logic is expecting L-Block to drop less than 3.63% when Solid gets a good picture, a second Noble Niner is introduced in Sonic, and Squall is thrown in after keeping fairly close to Sonic despite Sora!

Who said he'd only drop 4%? I don't really know how much he'll drop. His range is pretty wide.

But given that next round is user-made pics, we should be seeing his first in-game pic, and do to that (or loyalty factor if you prefer), it should be the strongest we've ever seen L-Block by a good amount.
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Heroic Yuna | Posted 10/28/2007 9:29:18 AM | message detail

From SonicRaptor Posted 10/28/2007 12:27:43 PM #192
If the contest ever returns to a one-on-one format

...Why wouldn't it?
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linkhatesganon | Posted 10/28/2007 9:30:49 AM | message detail

Yeah, it's going to be impossible giving a stat to L-block <.<
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Ed Bellis | Posted 10/28/2007 9:33:58 AM | message detail

I never said Snake SFFed Squall. SFF gets misapplied to any wacky result far too easily. I'm just saying that Snake vs. Squall had two weird results and that it's something to consider, that's all.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2007 9:56:38 AM | message detail

creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 9:57:12 AM | message detail

What is weird about either result?
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creativename | Posted 10/28/2007 10:00:04 AM | message detail

2) Sora is stronger than Aeris, but Aeris is more related to Squall than to Sora is.

The problem with no Squall/Sora SFF is that they actually share a game, one which we know meant quite a bit to Squall's popularity.

It does seem the Aeris/Squall overlap is much bigger, due to generational issues, even though they don't share a game (KH probably means next to nothing for Aeris). But I don't know about totally dismissing the idea of Sora/Squall SFF, though smitelf's points were good.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 10/28/2007 10:00:50 AM | message detail

Squall's % is getting destroyed atm..I don't see him gaining any % through out the day either because of vote totals. Sonic is going up steadily now in %, and destroying squall in vote gains. Sora is climbing fast.
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