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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 536

smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:59:53 PM | message detail
Even with the Brawl boost intact, I think people were simply overestimating Sonic. Squall isn't a pushover. He's > Auron, and Auron kicked ass and took names until his unfortunate meeting with Cloud.

It's Squall who's doing great, not Sonic who's doing poorly; people just didn't realize how badly Aeris was crippling him in earlier rounds.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 10:02:57 PM | message detail
Squall hanging very tough here.

It's Squall who's doing great, not Sonic who's doing poorly; people just didn't realize how badly Aeris was crippling him in earlier rounds.

I'm leaning towards this now. I think Haste2 said this as well.

Though I still think this is somewhat poor for Sonic right now. Let's see what the day vote does for him. At this rate Sonic's going to be an outright underdog to L-Block.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 10:04:10 PM | message detail
This contest starts to look like it is that year again for a Square character to win. Nintendo characters didn't really impress thus far, whereas Square powerhouses have shown some awesome performances in their matches. Be careful, Link!
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 10:04:41 PM | message detail
Hell, if Sora if LFFing Squall noticeably (and if Snake LFFs Sonic at all), Sonic could finish 4th next round o_O
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transience | Posted 10/27/2007 10:05:04 PM | message detail
time to rank the round 4 matches

1. Snake/Sonic/L-Block/Squall
2. MC/Dante/Pikachu/Luigi
3. Cloud/Samus/Mega Man/Ryu
4. Link/Sephiroth/Mario/Vincent

...whoa, this contest is over.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 10:05:07 PM | message detail
Even with the Brawl boost intact, I think people were simply overestimating Sonic. Squall isn't a pushover. He's > Auron, and Auron kicked ass and took names until his unfortunate meeting with Cloud.

It's Squall who's doing great, not Sonic who's doing poorly; people just didn't realize how badly Aeris was crippling him in earlier rounds.


Sonic's expected to get 55% on Auron last year. Assuming this ends 35-29 for Sonic, Sonic's expected to get 55% on Squall after the Brawl boost, with Sora in the match. How is Sonic looking good here?
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Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 10:05:35 PM | message detail
Link's match this round was far more impressive than Cloud's in my opinion. He got 5 less percent, but Zero >> Marcus Fenix, Crono >> Ryu, Vincent >> SFFed Auron.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/27/2007 10:06:34 PM | message detail
Hell, if Sora if LFFing Squall noticeably (and if Snake LFFs Sonic at all), Sonic could finish 4th next round o_O

Even if Squall is third, I would be happy with this. It would mean Squall beat a NNer would have never lost to someone who hasn't beaten a NNer.

^_^


KB
ZFS | Posted 10/27/2007 10:06:50 PM | message detail
Great to see Squall giving Sonic a fight. This probably won't end up being as close thanks to the day vote, but the idea that Aeris was hurting Squall a good bit looks pretty dead on. I figured she was more of a detriment to him than Sora was.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/27/2007 10:06:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/27/2007 10:07:40 PM | message detail
http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/9830/finalduxuv5.png

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EvilPrinny | Posted 10/27/2007 10:10:45 PM | message detail
now thats what we call a decisive cut, kids
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/27/2007 10:11:13 PM | message detail
What the hell there?


KB
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 10:11:32 PM | message detail
Great to see Squall giving Sonic a fight. This probably won't end up being as close thanks to the day vote, but the idea that Aeris was hurting Squall a good bit looks pretty dead on. I figured she was more of a detriment to him than Sora was.

Yeah, I expected more of Aeris's support to go to Squall, but not this much.

Well, we'll see how things go in the day, and Sora and Sonic really get going.
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Squall/Sora/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Squall - Vote: Sonic (295/378)
creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 10:11:34 PM | message detail
And Sonic doing his best to shut us doubters up!

now thats what we call a decisive cut, kids

Cut? :)
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smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 10:11:52 PM | message detail
Sonic's expected to get 55% on Auron last year. Assuming this ends 35-29 for Sonic, Sonic's expected to get 55% on Squall after the Brawl boost, with Sora in the match. How is Sonic looking good here?

Many high-tier FF characters have been doing very well this year. Squall has probably risen too, only we couldn't tell with Aeris hanging around his neck. I'd say it's more likely that Squall has risen than that Sonic is underperformaing (and I also think the Brawl boost might be exaggerated anyway - people who were expecting some sort of 36+ performance in this match were bound to be disappointed by reality).
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/27/2007 10:11:59 PM | message detail
Huh, looking at last round, Squall was actually pretty consistent all match (I love these graphs). Pretty impressive with Sora there. And he actually rose all day in round 1.

Sonic may not pull away that far afterall.
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 10:15:49 PM | message detail
Link's match this round was far more impressive than Cloud's in my opinion. He got 5 less percent, but Zero >> Marcus Fenix, Crono >> Ryu, Vincent >> SFFed Auron.

Link is the only Nintendo character who half-impressed me... we will see whether he can rack up more percentages than Cloud in their next round matches before I can say Link has impressed me. I think the Quarter Final matches are a good comparison between the two leading to their crash because Link's pack next round is about equal to Cloud's pack (after considering some SFF that will occur). Heck, if Mario is going to get SFF'd so badly, Cloud's pack may be a bit stronger.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/27/2007 10:16:00 PM | message detail
That was weird. Sonic gets an almost 100 vote gain after a bunch of Squall cuts. Now right after, Squalls cutting again.
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EvilPrinny | Posted 10/27/2007 10:16:25 PM | message detail
Even though Sonic will definently win here... he looks way weaker then he did last round
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 10:16:31 PM | message detail
And he actually rose all day in round 1.

Opponents had crap day votes
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Squall/Sora/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Squall - Vote: Sonic (295/378)
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 10:20:00 PM | message detail
Opponents had crap day votes

bububububut BOOBS
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 10:23:37 PM | message detail
Kiddies don't care about boobs they care about SWORDS and KEYBLADES and SPIKY HAIR
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Squall/Sora/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Squall - Vote: Sonic (295/378)
transience | Posted 10/27/2007 10:26:29 PM | message detail
and ugly helmets
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2007 10:27:36 PM | message detail
Baah. We all know Squall gained since last year, is not involved with any LFF, Sonic is being hurt by his picture, Sonic will gain percentage all day while Squall drops, and Squall is somehow SFFing Sora despite there somehow being no LFF! And, we all know Snake does better with a sprite. Snake is so screwed next round!

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/27/2007 10:28:43 PM | message detail
So...is it official that Block has a chance in the next round to cause some mayhem? I know, I know, the odds are more overwhelming than ever. With two noble niners and one of the biggest Square juggernauts, you'd think the guy was screwed. But is there any theory in which Block can STILL succeed?
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 10:29:49 PM | message detail
Hey, Squall is holding his Gunblade, which is a SWORD and a (KEY)BLADE! So this is why he is overperforming now.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 10:30:31 PM | message detail
Squall being so strong is arguably good for the block, since he kinda looks like he keeps a stable percentage every match.

And Squall/Snake LFF...:(
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Who Cares? | Posted 10/27/2007 10:31:32 PM | message detail
Sonic is being hurt by his picture

Huh? A sprite pic from his Genesis days is hurting him...when most fans claim 2D Sonic > 3D Sonic? o_0
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smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 10:35:35 PM | message detail
I wouldn't count anything out with L-Block anymore. It's a monster. I'm just going to assume it gets 25% minimum regardless of whatever it's up against, assuming it gets a straight-on pic (and the next round pics are user-created, so the chances of that are very high).
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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/27/2007 10:39:20 PM | message detail
To the fellow who asked about LFF earlier,

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/LFF

Speaking of which, I should update that.

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__hiei__ | Posted 10/27/2007 11:48:13 PM | message detail
Two consecutive cuts now. if this trend continues Sonic could really be in trouble in the next match.
MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/27/2007 11:48:48 PM | message detail
time to rank the round 4 matches

1. Snake/Sonic/L-Block/Squall
2. MC/Dante/Pikachu/Luigi
3. Cloud/Samus/Mega Man/Ryu
4. Link/Sephiroth/Mario/Vincent


Cloud > Samus and Link > Sephiroth I have in my bracket and feel safe with. I have Sonic > Snake and I am relatively at peace with that decision as well. Having Dante > Ganondorf is going to kill me, but I am still confident Dante can edge Master Chief, not the other way around.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 11:52:48 PM | message detail
70 votes down in 15 minutes. That's a nice pace
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2007 12:05:12 AM | message detail
Squall is making real cuts now.

Sonic's Percentage of Sonic/Squall Votes By the Hour:

1:00 | 52.75%
2:00 | 52.24%
3:00 | 50.07%

Overall Percentage: 51.97%

Sonic is doing a little worse than he did on Vincent last year- he had 52.38% at the 3:00 mark. Vincent and Squall had very similar trends in their 2005 match. Surprisingly for an FFVII character, Vincent actually won the board vote/first hour against Squall slightly.

Squall currently needs 56.52% of Sora's votes to go him to tie Sonic, if Sub-Zero's votes split evenly.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/28/2007 12:19:39 AM | message detail
Big Sonic gain/Squall drop. Lead back to where it was 30 min. ago.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2007 12:35:35 AM | message detail
OMg Sonic is doing horrible. He just has 0.5% more on Squall (who is only equal to Vincent), Sora (Who couldn't defeat Mega Man despite having the better seed) and Sub-Zero (Who barely beat Masterchief last year) then what Solid Snake got on L-Block, Kratos (Come on this guy was the bracket favourite against Ryu last year) and Riku (Wow this guy got 45% on Yoshi last year, and he upset Ryu Hayabusa this year) . Sonic's chances to get to the semifinals are equal to 0.
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octoinky | Posted 10/28/2007 12:40:11 AM | message detail
I think this contest is far from over.

1. MC/Dante/Pikachu/Luigi
I think anybody could move on here, and the winner is even up for grabs. Anticipating this so much

2. Snake/Sonic/L-Block/Squall
I'm not too worried about L-Block but I think it could happen still.

3. Cloud/Samus/Mega Man/Ryu
Atleast MM has.. some.. chance of 2nd? Meh, I dunno

4. Link/Sephiroth/Mario/Vincent
Mario vs Vincent? heh
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/28/2007 1:05:19 AM | message detail
Squall is going crazy right now.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2007 1:07:47 AM | message detail
Looks to me like they're just going to hover around the 600 vote lead range until morning >_>

I was kind of looking forward to Squall taking the lead in the night. Oh well
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Because only you are in the infinity loop.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 1:10:11 AM | message detail
If Sonic lets Squall take the lead, he's doomed next round. Sonic has no excuse, Squall has Sora hindering him. Chalk that up to yet another piss-poor performance by Team Sonic
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candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 1:12:57 AM | message detail
http://youtube.com/watch?v=X19NoePdInE
candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 1:13:09 AM | message detail
http://youtube.com/watch?v=X19NoePdInE
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/28/2007 1:15:10 AM | message detail
Such a shame that Squall has to deal with Snake next round. v_v
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candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 1:15:58 AM | message detail
believe^
candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 1:18:03 AM | message detail
31.11

squall has just now begun to fight!1!11!!111

omg

*marks out for squall.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 1:20:26 AM | message detail
candlelit_honey, expunge yourself from society.

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candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 1:20:46 AM | message detail
hey someone do me a favror im going to be but when squall takes the lead on sonic print screen it.
candlelit_honey | Posted 10/28/2007 1:21:30 AM | message detail
hochiminh155
Posted 10/28/2007 1:20:26 AM
message detail candlelit_honey, expunge yourself from society.

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Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest


^ u picked suckic the hedgehog, huh?
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/28/2007 1:21:45 AM | message detail
Can somebody explain what it means to "mark out".
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