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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 536

__Smurf__ | Posted 10/27/2007 7:40:11 AM | message detail
Struggling with a block or struggling with Frog. Which is worse? ^_^

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 7:44:51 AM | message detail
L-Block > Link believe



(for the first hour at least...)
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/27/2007 7:48:08 AM | message detail
L-Block>Solid Failure and Sonic the Failhog
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(|| ' ' ||) Host of "Who would win in a Fight?"
. /|_|\ NOITHING LOIK A FIST FULL OF LOIGHTNING
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2007 7:59:46 AM | message detail
Sonic the Failhog... nice ring to it.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2007 8:38:29 PM | message detail
A Smurf stats topic during a Sonic match. Guess this makes up for last year, right?
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155
http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y69/unown_pnoi/brawlhypeclubheader.jpg
swirIdude | Posted 10/27/2007 9:30:07 PM | message detail
GIVE EM HELL SONIC
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Number of people who have responded to my post with only prepositions: 38
National Shoddy League: 1-0
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/27/2007 9:30:22 PM | message detail
Odds?

What are the odds of Squall leading in this match?


KB
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:30:46 PM | message detail
Squall and Sonic haven't moved much from their early positions in previous matches. Sub-Zero usually flatlines, too. Sora usually gains a little (ASV).
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
ZFS | Posted 10/27/2007 9:31:02 PM | message detail
The night vote will be something to see here.

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:31:06 PM | message detail
If Sonic is struggling with Squall he'll have no chance against the block.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 56: Sonic > Squall Points: 237/368
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 9:31:10 PM | message detail
So, yeah. I definitely see SSBB creating some nice boosts among established characters. Same with Galaxy, hopefully. Hype just obscures the boosts sometimes, so I'm not sure how much we'll see from Snake after the game comes out (though he'll certainly get something from the game).
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:32:29 PM | message detail
From Haste_2
Sonic the Failhog... nice ring to it.

How is Sonic failing? He's impressing me.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
Link The Hylian | Posted 10/27/2007 9:33:52 PM | message detail
If L block advances next round then this contest is officially a joke.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
swirIdude | Posted 10/27/2007 9:34:07 PM | message detail
lol smitelf confused by a post from yesterday
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Number of people who have responded to my post with only prepositions: 38
National Shoddy League: 1-0
transience | Posted 10/27/2007 9:34:24 PM | message detail
Squall is the impressive one. Sonic/Squall/Snake/Block might be the most awesome match of all time just because no one has a clue what will happen.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:35:14 PM | message detail
From swirIdude
lol smitelf confused by a post from yesterday

*checks date*

Oh... <_< hehehe
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:36:42 PM | message detail
Squall and Sonic are both doing great, mostly because their competition is collapsing. That's bound to benefit Squall more, since Sora collapsing = more Square votes for him.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 9:36:58 PM | message detail
Personally I think Master Chief's match was more impressive than this or Snake's, despite it being a slight disappointment in my eyes.

Snake had an excuse, obviously. Just sayin...

Squall/Sora/Sub-Zero vs Ganon/Luigi/Yuna, who ya got?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 9:37:50 PM | message detail
Why would Brawl boost Ganon? I doubt Ganon moves much from where he is.

Squall is the impressive one. Sonic/Squall/Snake/Block might be the most awesome match of all time just because no one has a clue what will happen.

The only guarantee is that Squall doesn't take 1st.

...unless he's being killed by LFF here and would actually be crushing Sonic otherwise :)
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 9:38:19 PM | message detail
At this rate Squall may start gaining and even take the lead over Sonic sometime near the end of the night vote. Unless Squall just has a really powerful opening hour.

Unfortunately that won't last after the night, obviously.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
swirIdude | Posted 10/27/2007 9:38:24 PM | message detail
L-Blocku!!
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Number of people who have responded to my post with only prepositions: 38
National Shoddy League: 1-0
creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 9:39:19 PM | message detail
Sora's not really collapsing though.

It's unclear whether he'll finish higher or lower (the night vote might hurt him a lot), but he's doing fine right now.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:39:41 PM | message detail
I don't think this indicates Squall > Sonic. There's definitely overlap between Squall and Sora, but as we saw in round 2, it's not that much. And Squall was bound to look great today by comparison with being LFFed by Aeris in the first two rounds.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
Christmas_Eve | Posted 10/27/2007 9:41:01 PM | message detail
Whats LFF?

Squall will win btw.

washansee.
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http://youtube.com/watch?v=nhiPgimRz_k
Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 9:41:45 PM | message detail
Sora's board vote is pretty bad... I don't think he's going down during the night... he didn't lose any last round did he?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Agent M | Posted 10/27/2007 9:41:48 PM | message detail
Squall/Sora/Sub-Zero vs Ganon/Luigi/Yuna, who ya got?

one on one

Squall > Ganon
Sora > Luigi
Sub-Zero > Yuna

so the first one

nobody wins with more than 52.5 - 47.5, I'd say.
Christmas_Eve | Posted 10/27/2007 9:41:59 PM | message detail
And what is the best way to rally for squall?
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http://youtube.com/watch?v=nhiPgimRz_k
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:42:28 PM | message detail
It's a little shady to compare stuff like this, but I'm doing it anyway!

All Time Lowest Prediction Percentages:

01. 03.48% - L-Block in Snake vs L-Block vs Kratos vs Riku (2007 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
02. 06.00% - (1) Cloud Strife vs (2) Sephiroth (2003 Characters Final)
03. 06.67% - L-Block in Kratos vs L-Block vs Kirby vs Donkey Kong (2007 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
04. 07.16% - (2) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (16) StarCraft (2004 Games Quarterfinal)
05. 07.91% - (16) StarCraft vs (5) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (2004 Games Sweet Sixteen)
06. 08.52% - Link vs Cloud Strife vs Solid Snake (2006 Battle Royale Day 4)
07. 09.38% - Amaterasu in Dante vs Amaterasu vs Ada vs Balthier (2007 Characters Round 2)
08. 09.96% - Link vs Cloud Strife vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake vs Mario (2006 Characters Battle Royale Day 2)
09. 10.94% - Vincent in Link vs Vincent vs Crono vs Zero (2007 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
10. 12.47% - (5) Vincent Valentine vs (2) Squall Leonhart (2005 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
11. 12.54% - (1) Samus Aran vs (1) Solid Snake (2006 Characters Final)
12. 12.80% - (2) Link vs (1) Mario (2002 Characters Final)
13. 13.31% - (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs (1) Crono (2006 Characters Quarterfinal)
14. 13.40% - (1) Cloud Strife vs (1) Link (2003 Characters Semifinal)
15. 14.18% - (2) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (3) Final Fantasy X (2004 Games Quarterfinal)
16. 14.50% - (2) Mega Man vs (1) Solid Snake (2003 Characters Quartefinal)
17. 14.60% - (5) Crono vs (2) Solid Snake (2002 Characters Quarterfinal)
18. 14.76% - (7) Diablo vs (1) Kefka (2005 Villains Quarterfinal)
19. 15.07% - Big Boss in Mario vs Big Boss vs Magus vs Phoenix (2007 Characters Round 2)
20. 15.62% - (16) StarCraft vs (9) Kingdom Hearts (2004 Games Round 2)
21. 17.30% - (5) Scorpion vs (1) Pac-Man (2002 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
22. 17.39% - Ryu in Cloud vs Ryu vs Auron vs Marcus (2007 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
23. 17.83% - Link vs Cloud Strife vs Solid Snake vs Sephiroth (2006 Characters Battle Royale Day 3)
24. 20.27% - (7) Sub-Zero vs (2) Master Chief (2006 Characters Round 1)
25. 21.70% - (7) Sephiroth vs (6) Mega Man (2003 Characters Semifinal)

2002 Characters: 3
2003 Characters: 4
2004 Games: 4
2004 Characters: 0
2005 Villains: 1
2005 Characters: 1
2006 Series: 0
2006 Characters: 6
2007 Characters: 6
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 9:42:46 PM | message detail
Sora lost about a percent with the night vote in his last match
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:43:12 PM | message detail
Maybe Sora isn't collapsing after all. I thought I'd had him higher in my Oracle prediction. Then maybe Aeris was LFFing Squall even more than she seemed to be? Hmm...

And I think Sora will finish higher than where he is now. Even if there's no ASV per se, that just means that Sora's bonus will be distributed throughout the day instead of after 3PM EST.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 9:43:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think Sonic's is a bit tougher too... but he's probably gonna end a few % below Master Chief when this is done. Even though Sonic's day vote is good, I don't think he's going to get helped by it much here with Sora here to gobble it up.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 9:43:40 PM | message detail
Why would Brawl boost Ganon? I doubt Ganon moves much from where he is.

Brawl's going to boost every Nintendo character.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Christmas_Eve | Posted 10/27/2007 9:45:30 PM | message detail
No one will take votes from Squall next round so he can win.
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http://youtube.com/watch?v=nhiPgimRz_k
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 9:45:54 PM | message detail
Aw yeah Squall already cutting
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Majin Lou | Posted 10/27/2007 9:46:17 PM | message detail
Squall cut, oh yeah!
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http://danceandstomp.net/forum/
Desert Rose, why do you live alone? If you are sad, I'll make you leave this life.
Keno316 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:46:20 PM | message detail
Brawl's going to boost every Nintendo character.


Its gonna give some of the main names some good boosts, but I don't think EVERYONES gonna get one. And not everyone will get a big one.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/27/2007 9:46:40 PM | message detail
GO SQUALL!!!!


KB
Christmas_Eve | Posted 10/27/2007 9:47:15 PM | message detail
I don't see how people don't see the potential squall upset here. He's only down 4% and Sora is leaching him pretty hardcore. If Sora was replaced with any non square guy Squall would be up 5% right now.
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http://youtube.com/watch?v=nhiPgimRz_k
The Real Truth | Posted 10/27/2007 9:47:28 PM | message detail
Go Squall, save this contest from sucking as much as it already has with L-Block and random non-Pikachu pokemon doing well.
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smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:49:20 PM | message detail
I don't see how people don't see the potential squall upset here. He's only down 4% and Sora is leaching him pretty hardcore. If Sora was replaced with any non square guy Squall would be up 5% right now.

lol, no. Squall would not gain 9% from Sora's absence. They don't overlap that much.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 9:50:26 PM | message detail
02. 06.00% - (1) Cloud Strife vs (2) Sephiroth (2003 Characters Final)

Wasn't this 06.04%?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/c03sum
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
ZFS | Posted 10/27/2007 9:50:35 PM | message detail
cut cut cut

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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 9:51:51 PM | message detail
why must you turn this topic into a house of lies
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 9:53:00 PM | message detail
Squall probably gains like 2% if Sora's not here. I don't think it's that significant at all.

Then again, I also said Luigi and Ganon didn't significantly weaken each other overall, so my theories on this leeching definitely aren't standard.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Fiop | Posted 10/27/2007 9:55:56 PM | message detail
Whats LFF?

Leeching Fanbase Factor
smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:56:39 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero is looking < Scorpion right now. Samus/Mega Man/Yoshi > Squall/Sora/Sonic.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/27/2007 9:57:26 PM | message detail
Maybe Sonic's Brawl boost means he ONLY does better with a Brawl picture.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 9:57:34 PM | message detail
This is certainly not as impressive as the 2nd round Sonic. Even if Squall is strong and there is no LFF...

I guess last round's performance was due mostly to the opposition rather than Brawl
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/27/2007 9:57:37 PM | message detail
woo squall!

lol sub-zero. I was worried that he'd advance here. Snake/Sonic/Squall/L-Block is going to be insane.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 9:59:49 PM | message detail
Maybe Sonic's Brawl boost means he ONLY does better with a Brawl picture.

Snake's matches were mostly Old Snake last year. And he did extremely well against Yoshi given the sprite pic.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
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