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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 535

Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 8:22:53 PM | message detail
Division 8: Round 3 - Match 56 – Squall Leonhart vs. Sora vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Analysis

Squall
Round 1 – 35.33% vs. Aeris, Akuma and Geno
Round 2 – 33.56% vs. Sora, Aeris and Lara

King of (Square) SFF.

Sora
Round 1 – 41.87% vs. Lara, Wesker and Daxter
Round 2 – 29.92% vs. Squall, Aeris and Lara

Got revenge for 2003 against Aeris.

Sonic
Round 1 –39.64% vs. Sub-Zero, Prince of Persia and Joe
Round 2 – 44.39% vs. Sub-Zero, Gordon and Duke

BRAWLBOOST

Sub-Zero
Round 1 – 32.89% vs. Sonic, Prince of Persia and Joe
Round 2 – 23.47% vs. Sub-Zero, Gordon and Duke

Uh, what happened here?

S is the best letter in the alphabet, so I like this match for one reason!

The S that takes first is Sonic. Sure, there was a lot of doubt after Round 1, but after Sega panicked and made their calls to get Sonic in Brawl + a trailer, Sonic became safe from any doubt.

The S that takes last is Sub-Zero. Again, he was looking really good after Round 1, but then you throw Gordon and Duke into the mix and he goes down? Like, 9% down too. Can’t see him going another round now.

The two S’s battling for second? Squall and Sora. This shouldn’t be too unpredictible either. We’ve seen Squall beat Sora (SFF or not) last round, and now with Aeris gone, it’s more likely that Squall will get support from her former voters as well. Still, it would be foolish to count Sora out completely.

…Heck, with the SFF we’ve seen so far it’d be crazy to count Subby out too.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic > Squall

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 35% - Squall: 26% - Sora: 22% - Sub-Zero: 17%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This match is Sonic vs three characters that are strong enough to take second place, though Squall finishing pretty far ahead of Sora limits the possibilities.

It's very conceivable that Sora could screw Squall over and allow Sub-Zero to sneak into second place. But I doubt it. Subby looked like crap in the second round, while Squall looked great against two other Square character.

Oh and lol Aeris, good riddance.

Ulti's Prediction:
Sonic [35.00%]
Squall [27.00%]
Sora [23.00%]
Sub-Zero [15.00%]



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Holy crap, was this an incredible round, or what?! It started off a bit slowly, but the last four days will pass into legend as one of the most memorable, exciting, and all around ****ed up stretches in contest history. It seems almost impossible for our final round three match to contend with what we've recently seen, and I think that's for both better and worse. On the one hand, we need a breather, and on the other, well, it's never fun when your match is lost in a sea of omfg.

Our round tres swan song features Square heartthrobs, Squall Leonhart and Sora, speed demon and gaming icon, Sonic, and the greatest ice cube maker in history, Sub-Zero. May the lord bless and keep them all, but **** that ****, they're here to fight, and fight. They. Shall.

Today's huge odds-on favorite, Sonic, comes into this match on the heels of a big SSBB confirmation and a much more impressive second round performance, so it's fair to say that we'd all be relatively shocked if he didn't win this easily. The general consensus with regards to second place is that Squall should take it. Last round, Squall proved what most of us already knew: that he was clearly higher on the Square totem poll than both Sora and Aeris, and if Sora couldn't touch him then, there's no logical reason for him to pose a threat today.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 8:23:10 PM | message detail
The only thing standing between the Final Fantasy VIII star and a spot in the Sweet 16 is Sub-Zero, who may take advantage of the fanbase overlap between Squall and Sora just enough to get by. While it's a possibility made more frightfully realistic after Pikachu's stunning, fanbase overlap-fueled win, I still think Squall has this. He's clearly the stronger of the two characters, he might end up pummeling Sora around, and Sub-Zero's last performance was a bit too disappointing for me to put my faith in him today. Onward, to Round Four!

Sonic the Hedgehog - 33%
Squall Leonhart - 25%
Sub-Zero - 22%
Sora - 20%



Lopen’s Analysis

Alright, quad S match, awesome. If it weren't for that bastard L-Block it'd be that way next round too. ... not that there was a chance of any Ss advancing this far in this division, so maybe I'll concede that L-Block doesn't entirely deserve the dissin-- nah.

Sonic looked beastly last round compared to the first. Was it Brawl? Was it the PC fanbase being weak and Gordon being a freak... and the Shredder?

Dunno. I strongly considered Sub-Zero before last round last round, but after he flopped so hard last round and Scorpion couldn't capitalize remotely on a three way Nintendo match, (though now I don't think a Nintendo fanbase split means much for overall strength since it's so large a fanbase) I'm going to have to say no.

Seeing a Sora upset would be off the Kingdom Charts, but do I think to call it shows Kingdom Smarts? Nope. Though Sora showed that his fanbase is not one of the Kingdom Parts of Squall's last round, and he should do fine, Squall has just shown more power. However, Squall better hope he's in command right from the Kingdom Starts, because having Sonic and Sora here will make sure his day vote Kingdom Departs.

So I guess what I Kingdom Impart here is that Sonic > Squall for this match. Sora isn't out of the running, though. Go, Sora!

Lopen's prediction:
Sonic - 33.00%
Squall - 25.02%
Sora - 23.44%
Sub-Zero - 18.54%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

In a bit of a rush today, you'll have to excuse me. OR STOP VOTING FOR L-BLOCK but I don't think that one's gonna pan out =/

Squall Leonhart

Doing about as expected in his run-up to this point, Squall is now holding out for his innate strength to carry him over Sub-Zero as Sora tries to hold him back here.

Sora

Doesn't have much of a shot here, but we've seen larger margins reversed in this format. Though the SFF wrench throws most of that out the window... so he's mostly here to try and **** up Squall's chances.

Sonic the Hedgehog

teh BRAWLZ has made Sonic brawly, that's for certain. Perhaps the most impressive NN performance last round (certainly relative to his expectations that the first round made), Sonic would be considered a near-lock to the finals now if it weren't for a certain competitor who never seems to drop significantly below 30%...

Sub-Zero

After an extremely impressive first round, lets Gordon get close to him in Round 2. Folding against stronger competition (namely Sonic in Brawl)? The Shredder factor? His upset chances against Squall don't look nearly as good, but don't count Subby out, not with his MK1 pic on the way...

I'd like to say Sub-Zero's got this one for the sake of upsets (sorry Squall) and, more importantly, someone with the least overlap with Snake next round. <.< But I see Squall, despite being held back, winning this one plainly. The split with Sora is apparently very severe, but I can't blame what I saw last round on the Shredder picture entirely. With this extremely tough competition, and the fact that Sora shouldn't drain Squall THAT much... yeah. Not too much else in my reasoning, big possibility of an upset but not enough for me to take it.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 8:24:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter's Vote: Sub-Zero VOTE STRATEGICALLY
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 39%, Squall with 23%, Sub-Zero with 20%, Sora with 18%

Upset Probability: 60%

Sub-Zero is one thing, but SORA got way too close for comfort last round as well. The dynamic of the format is always volatile...



Transience’s Analysis

woo block

pretty interesting match here - Sonic gets to show what he's got against two other strong characters, though they're going to be holding each other back so he may impress more than expected. Sub-Zero was probably the dud of the last round, so Squall probably has nothing to worry about.

...that's likely to be the conventional thinking today, but I'm not feeling it. for one, Sub-Zero's probably going to get a classic MK1 picture, maybe the best picture he'll ever get. Scorpion had an awesome picture earlier in the round. it's much better than that Super Shredder pic he got last round. meanwhile, the others may look kinda bad. they're just not made for sprite-like pictures. hell, look at Kratos's pic today. not that I think this is a big deal, but hey, it''s something.

then there's that whole fanbase overlap thing. Squall and Sora have that going on in spades. Sub-Zero is a lot stronger than your average "weakest character who's lucky to be here", too. round 1 made him look like a beast, and I can't come up with a reason for that to magically go away other than the picture. (Brawl announcement = fighting game SFF!!! what) I don't know, I think Squall and Sora will split pretty hard, Sonic will look nice here, and Sub will get his 20% or something needed to move on. bring on round 4!

Kingdom Hearts overlap
Sub-Zero's all "split fanbase?"
"thanks for second place."

transience's prediction: Sonic with 39.67%, Sub-Zero with 21.89%, Squall with 20.46%, Sora with 17.98%



Guest’s Analysis - Majin Lou

Squall

From losing to Solid Snake in 2002 to, well, losing to Solid Snake in 2006, Squall has come a long way in these contests. He is one of the strongest characters outside of the Noble Nine, but once again has to deal with Sora stealing some of his support. Oh well, even if Sora wasn't in the poll, he wouldn't have a shot of upending Sonic. Damn BRAWLFEAR. Sucks we won't get a good read on Squall's strength without other Square characters in the same poll until next round, maybe.

Sora

If I was Sora right now, I'd be feeling mighty well right now. Sure, he pretty much has no chance advancing past Sonic and Squall, but going from getting doubled by Aeris in 2003 to making her your ***** in 2007 has got to be satisfying. He might have to watch out for Sub-Zero though, since Squall will probably take the majority of Aeris' support. That, and he'll have to deal with classic Sub-Zero. Sora better keep some GAME FUEL on hand just incase...

Sonic

Sonic should be very glad he got into Brawl. In round one, all Sonic series characters looked like crap, including Sonic. In round two, Knuckles and Shadow really looked like crap. Then, a miracle happened. Noting how well Sub-Zero had done in round one, Sonic made a call to Nintendo headquarters and got himself into Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Sure, some shady deal probably went down in a back alley afterwards, but hey, all that matters is that SONIC IS IN BRAWL! HOLY ****! HOLY ****! **** THAT OLYMPIC GAME, SONIC IS IN BRAWL!!!11 Anyway, Sonic will have no trouble getting first place.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 8:24:25 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero

After nearly getting sued by Kevin Nash for stealing his Super Shredder gimmick, Sub-Zero is hoping to get a picture advantage this round with classic Sub-Zero, a.k.a. a palette swap of classic Scorpion. Clearly the strongest Mortal Kombat character, it took Sub-Zero a few years to finally make it into the contest, but he has impressed ever since. While advancing should be out of the question, he can definitely put up a fight for third.

Prediction: Sonic: 35% Squall: 24% Sora: 21% Sub-Zero: 20%
Vote: Squall



Crew Consensus: Sonic > Squall to end the round.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 8:25:43 PM | message detail
aww yeah tranny
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FinalFantasyTactics | Posted 10/27/2007 8:35:03 PM | message detail
You'll have to take me out of the Guest writer and give it to someone else. I won't be available.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 8:37:36 PM | message detail
But...now that we how how ungodly weak FF12 is at this site, is anything else considering that the Ashe picture might have cost Final Fantasy a few points there? At the time there was discussion about it, but I think most agreed it wouldn't be such a big deal. But we also didn't think FF12 characters would be such weaklings.

I think that's irrelevant, since FFXII wasn't out at the time.
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Agent M | Posted 10/27/2007 8:39:32 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero better not pull a regular Zero :/

If he breaks 20% it's a moral victory.
creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 8:41:07 PM | message detail
What I'm saying is he's got, maybe, a good 28% of the site that'll vote him over virtually anything,

If you think Chief manages close to 28% in Link vs. Cloud vs. Snake vs. Chief, you are completely out of your mind :)
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 8:42:08 PM | message detail
Totally agreed creative, Chief gets at least 30.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 8:43:52 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero is a lot stronger than your average "weakest character who's lucky to be here", too.

Is he? Compared to Yuna, Zero, Fox, or Riku? His picture does look freakin' awesome, but last round was just sad for him.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/27/2007 8:44:57 PM | message detail
I'd take Sub-Zero to beat both Yuna and Fox. Maybe give Riku a run for his money.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 8:45:41 PM | message detail
Yuna > Riku
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ZFS | Posted 10/27/2007 8:49:17 PM | message detail

But...now that we how how ungodly weak FF12 is at this site, is anything else considering that the Ashe picture might have cost Final Fantasy a few points there? At the time there was discussion about it, but I think most agreed it wouldn't be such a big deal. But we also didn't think FF12 characters would be such weaklings.


I don't see how a picture of Ashe would be detrimental to Final Fantasy. Balthier didn't look too good -- Vaan had an excuse -- but it's tough to say how weak FF12 really is. There's some format going on here, and FF12 may be similar to FF6 in that its characters are weak but the game may fare better.

No matter the case, that picture doesn't do much of anything.

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Warsola | Posted 10/27/2007 8:49:57 PM | message detail
...I know this may be early....but I'm going to boldly predict that L-Block will advance once more. Yes, beyond Sonic/Snake. Here's why.

Facts:
Snake, Sonic, and L-Block will be there.
Either Sora, Squall, or Sub-Zero will also be there.

Now, what does this mean? Well, remember that MGS and FF/KH seem to have an odd relationship, meaning if Squall or Sora advance, Snake will be weakened, even more so due to Sonic taking away some of his Brawl power. This, I feel, is L's best shot. Now, if Sub-Zero somehow advances, L's chances become slimmer, but still viable. Sub-Zero, knowing B8, will most likely get a Genesis-era picture, which will help him drain Sonic somewhat. Sonic will also be slightly weakened due to not only Snake stealing Brawl votes, but Sonic characters being vulnerable to Nintendo SFF throughout the contest. Either that or just being unliked. So, no matter what tomorrow's outcome is, I BELIEVE IN YOU, L-GOD!
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
paraboxx | Posted 10/27/2007 8:57:45 PM | message detail
So...one update left.

Come on, Block...you can do this

ZFS:
Balthier didn't look too good -- Vaan had an excuse -- but it's tough to say how weak FF12 really is.


Balthier is widely believed to be the overall fan favorite of that game (he may not be in these contest, but I doubt we'll ever find out). If he's this weak, it's a safe bet that FF12 is weak as well.

Having said that, though, if FF12 wasn't out at the time of the poll, I don't imagine the game's weakness affected the poll much.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart 30%

3
Sora 0%

0
Sonic the Hedgehog 20%

2
Sub-Zero 50%

5
TOTAL VOTES 10

subz
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Squall/Sora/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Squall - Vote: Sonic (295/378)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart 23.08%

3
Sora 0%

0
Sonic the Hedgehog 15.38%

2
Sub-Zero 61.54%

8
TOTAL VOTES 13
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:24 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart 34.69%

17
Sora 14.29%

7
Sonic the Hedgehog 24.49%

12
Sub-Zero 26.53%

13
TOTAL VOTES 49
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:25 PM | message detail
no one cares!

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:30 PM | message detail
GRAAHHH
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:30 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart 24.24% 24
Sora 17.17% 17
Sonic the Hedgehog 36.36% 36
Sub-Zero 22.22% 22
TOTAL VOTES 99
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/27/2007 9:00:49 PM | message detail
great board vote for Sora
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Oracle Prediction: ~ NEW CHALLENGER 34.15% - Whatever 25.70% - Sora 21.70% - Sub 18.45%~ Status: ?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:06 PM | message detail
geez squall slow down
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Squall/Sora/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Squall - Vote: Sonic (295/378)
transience | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:09 PM | message detail
yikes

uhh next

(maybe)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:14 PM | message detail
Match over already.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:43 PM | message detail
Wow. Squall proving that he still has it in him to be a noble nine killer.
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smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:47 PM | message detail
Sora's getting *****-smacked by SFF right now.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:59 PM | message detail
Well this match is over.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:01:59 PM | message detail
We were due for a breather. Thank ya kindly, Sonic and Squall.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 9:02:10 PM | message detail
lol Sora
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2007 9:02:20 PM | message detail
At least Sora/Sub Zero could be interesting.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/27/2007 9:02:25 PM | message detail
what do you mean "match over"
Sonic > Squall has always been a lock, no?
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Oracle Prediction: ~ NEW CHALLENGER 34.15% - Whatever 25.70% - Sora 21.70% - Sub 18.45%~ Status: ?
Majin Lou | Posted 10/27/2007 9:02:49 PM | message detail
**** yeah Squall! Kick some ass!
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2007 9:02:54 PM | message detail
And Sora's ahead of Subz
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:03:01 PM | message detail
Since when does Squall have a good board vote?
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smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:03:03 PM | message detail
The real match here is for third place.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 9:03:05 PM | message detail
Sora's getting *****-smacked by SFF right now.

You mean SSFF right :)
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transience | Posted 10/27/2007 9:03:28 PM | message detail
dunno if this holds (BRACKETS), but Squall looks like he could have taken Sonic without Sora screwing with things.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 9:03:54 PM | message detail
L-Block 0.88% / 2.60%

LOLOLOL
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Warsola | Posted 10/27/2007 9:04:16 PM | message detail
L-Block 0.88% / 2.60%

....XFD
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/27/2007 9:04:20 PM | message detail
Just keep in mind Sonic's day-vote is still ahead and that Squall is going to be the most favored by brackets here.....
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:04:21 PM | message detail
I would say that Sonic is doing well right now... except for the fact that Squall has 30%. Crud.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2007 9:04:24 PM | message detail
XD L-Block
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:04:32 PM | message detail
27.09% / 47.64%
0.88% / 2.60%

>_>
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Match 56: Sonic > Squall Points: 237/368
transience | Posted 10/27/2007 9:04:35 PM | message detail
those 3% are gods.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2007 9:05:03 PM | message detail
Go even lower next round L-Block!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/27/2007 9:05:05 PM | message detail
Squall and Sonic had almost identical percentages at the end of the match as they did after the first five minutes.
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smitelf | Posted 10/27/2007 9:05:11 PM | message detail
dunno if this holds (BRACKETS), but Squall looks like he could have taken Sonic without Sora screwing with things.

I don't think the difference would be big enough. I'd still consider Sonic the safe bet there.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2007 9:05:29 PM | message detail
Lowest Prediction Percentage (Advancing):

01. 3.48% L-Block in Snake vs L-Block vs Kratos vs Riku (Round 3)
02. 6.67% L-Block in Kratos vs L-Block vs Kirby vs Donkey Kong (Round 2)
03. 9.38% Amaterasu in Dante vs Amaterasu vs Ada vs Balthier (Round 2)
04. 10.94% Vincent in Link vs Vincent vs Crono vs Zero (Round 3)
05. 15.07% Big Boss in Mario vs Big Boss vs Magus vs Phoenix (Round 2)
06. 17.39% Ryu in Cloud vs Ryu vs Auron vs Marcus (Round 3)
07. 22.44% Yuna in Master Chief vs Yuna vs Alucard vs Liquid (Round 2)
08. 23.53% Marcus in Cloud vs Marcus vs Ocelot vs Kefka (Round 2)
09. 24.73% Sub-Zero in Sonic vs Sub-Zero vs Gordon vs Duke (Round 2)
10. 29.51% Scorpion in Samus vs Scorpion vs Frog vs Midna (Round 2)

Shaped like a boot to kick your bracket's ass!
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