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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 535

Superluigi98 | Posted 10/27/2007 5:53:27 PM | message detail
Whatever happens, do we all agree that L-block NEEDS to come back in a 'normal' contest, just to see how he does?

I'll be nominating him, if only for curiosity's sake. But for some reason I seriously doubt he'd be nearly as impressive in a 1-on-1 format.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:03:35 PM | message detail
Star of the round probably goes to Pikachu or L-Block. Turd....

Crono ended up performing almost exactly to expectations, so he's out. Zero did horrible, yes, but I don't think his result would have been much out of line with what we would have guessed before that second round match against Crono, and Mario will probably do nearly as bad next round when confronted with SFF from Link. Fox did really bad- I was expecting him to hold up better than that against Mario, after dominating his fellow Nintendo characters the first two rounds. Auron disappointed too, but you can't really blame him for not being able to stand up to the SFF power of Cloud Strife. No one's done badly enough to clearly qualify for "turd" yet, I think.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:06:02 PM | message detail
Okay, so the ASV thing didn't pan out. But no matter.

Probably because it's Saturday.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:06:49 PM | message detail
Admitting this brings me great pain, but the turd of the round is clearly Leon S. Kennedy.

Next year, Leon. Next year. =(
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Heroic Yuna | Posted 10/27/2007 6:08:29 PM | message detail
Asians have school on saturdays. This clearly means that anime style and/or DS characters get an ASV even on weekends.

I call this The Fast-Track Factor, or TFF.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:08:54 PM | message detail
Crono, Zero and Dudorf were all bigger turds than Leon

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Heroic Yuna | Posted 10/27/2007 6:09:48 PM | message detail
As much as I hate to admit it... Yuna deserves turd. Maybe Zero.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:11:22 PM | message detail
Crono's match was a coin toss, and he came up respectably short. Zero was expected to lose, and only got killed by Link a bit more than most people were anticipating. Ganondorf... why would you consider Ganondorf a turd when he performed exactly as we predicated? =P

The turd is clearly Leon, who was expected to move on but was completely humiliated.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 6:11:54 PM | message detail
Yeah I definitely like Leon as the turd.

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Heroic Yuna | Posted 10/27/2007 6:13:51 PM | message detail
That was Pikachu and Dante's fault, not Leon's.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 6:14:51 PM | message detail
...you could apply that logic to anything.

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satai_delenn | Posted 10/27/2007 6:14:56 PM | message detail
I vote we call Big Boss the turd of the round simply on match pic principle. >_>
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ZFS | Posted 10/27/2007 6:15:14 PM | message detail
L-Block as the star and Leon as the turd. Pretty easy.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:17:06 PM | message detail
?

I love Leon more than most people here, but I'm not going to let him off the hook due to some unexpected SFF/LFF. You don't go 10% up to 10% down on the same opponent in consecutive matches. Even given the complexity and general wackiness of this contest, you just don't do that.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:18:14 PM | message detail
Well, Kirby kinda did (although he wasn't as extreme a case as Leon), and I'm pretty sure he was at least up for turdy consideration.
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Heroic Yuna | Posted 10/27/2007 6:23:56 PM | message detail
From PortugalTheMann Posted 10/27/2007 9:14:51 PM #361
...you could apply that logic to anything.

The fact that Dante lost to Pikachu means that you can't blame Leon for losing to Pikachu either. And Dante > Leon was expected from the very beginning. I can't see how Leon disappointed at all. o.O

On the other hand, Yuna and Zero both had excellent reasons to overperform, and they both looked like crap. =/
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 6:25:38 PM | message detail
You do realize that stars and turds and determined based on our expectations placed on them prior to their match, yes? You could call Dante a turd if you wanted to, I certainly would, if I had to choose between star and turd, Leon was just that much more of one.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:27:43 PM | message detail
Ganondorf... why would you consider Ganondorf a turd when he performed exactly as we predicated? =P


Because I hate him. He's a fraud and a phony. He is a recurring comedian entrant. Anyways, even though it doesn't look likely because of Pikachu, if Luigi > MC DID happen, the finals would come down to you and I, you on Link's side and I on Cloud's side
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Seginustemple | Posted 10/27/2007 6:28:43 PM | message detail
Fox is probably the turd....he sucked...
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paraboxx | Posted 10/27/2007 6:29:09 PM | message detail
I really don't think Yuna did that bad. More people were expecting noise from Zero, and that's saying something. And unlike Zero, Yuna at least kept it respectable. Nearly 19% on those three doesn't look too shabby to me.

KleenexTissue50:
Probably because it's Saturday.


Quiet you BELIEVE
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 6:29:35 PM | message detail
I don't like calling someone a turd when they weren't considered even for a split second as placing in the poll.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2007 6:29:38 PM | message detail
Dante missed his oracle consensus by about 2 points. Leon missed his concensus by nearly 5
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 6:30:59 PM | message detail
...and Yuna wasn't even considered the favorite in her match. Everyone said going into it that any of the three could finish in 2nd, and that Yuna probably had the best chance of coming in last.
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Super_Bowser | Posted 10/27/2007 6:58:47 PM | message detail
Why is everyone saying that L-Block is the star of the round?
Pretty much everyone expected L-Block to do well in this match after the first two rounds, I mean just look at the analysis crew. Yet almost nobody expected Pikachu to beat Dante and Leon after his second match. I think that Pikachu should be the star of the round.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 6:59:23 PM | message detail
we hate pikachu
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Super_Bowser | Posted 10/27/2007 6:59:59 PM | message detail
And L-Block already won star of the round in round 2
swirIdude | Posted 10/27/2007 7:01:07 PM | message detail
Because if Pikachu was the Star of the Round, there would be a bloodthirsty mob forming.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 7:05:54 PM | message detail
Kleenex
Just wait 'till the Russians wake up.

XD When L-Block is owning Snake and Sonic for the first two hours of that match, people need to post RUSSIANS HAVE ARRIVED! :)

(...DRUNK RUSSIANS HAVE ARRIVED...?)

Somebody get to work on a Photoshop of this stat...maybe involving Molotov cocktails somehow...


Lopen
And who's to say it doesn't apply to Master Chief? A more static fanbase would dictate that he'd do a lot better in this format.

I can assure you that Chief's fanbase is not static. He does probably benefit from being less SFFable than almost anyone else though. However, in a match with Link, Cloud, and someone else of strength, Chief would look pretty bad, as anyone (including L-Block) would.

Master Chief's fanbase could be like L-Block's but with a higher upper/lower bound. We've seen evidence to support it.

Actually we haven't, really.


HM
I'd take Tidus over L-Block one-on-one with complete confidence.

You would have taken tons of people in *this* format over L-Block with complete confidence :)

I wouldn't want to speculate on L-Block's 1-on-1 strength, so much is unknown; however I do think most here would greatly underestimate his 1-on-1 strength. ...also I'd take him over Magus, Magus=sucks :)

Fact is, when it comes to entrants like L, people usually expect them to not be able to live up to their performance the next round, let alone the next contest in a different format. This is very often proved incorrect.


hochi
I'm just looking and plugging in my formula and Sub-Zero could pull through. I'm just throwing it out there now so people aren't surprised when/if it actually happens.

Sub-Zero was actually the favorite there for a while, until Squall held up well against LFF and Subby got trashed by NintenSonic.

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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 7:08:12 PM | message detail
n00b
Well maybe replace L-Block with Pikachu. It's close. L-Block was more impressive but Pikachu's match was a bigget WTF moment for me

Just like there's no way anyone but L was the star last round, this round pretty much has to be Pikachu (augh, indeed). L was actually favored to take 2nd. He's only overperforming by like 6-8 points I think. Pikachu overperformed by like 12 points!

Pikachu though has almost no chance at being star next round, and L-Block has a good one. So being the star of 2 rounds is still possible for L-Block.


RPGuy
while L-Block was a very shaky favourite over Kratos.

I don't think it was shaky. Why would someone expect Kratos to beat out L here, when he only beat him by 4 points last round, and L was more likely to get hurt by opponents last round while Kratos is more likely to get hurt by opponents this round?


Yoariel
, there's also the very real possibility that Mudkip and Bidoof (not to mention Pikachu) all make it back, and that would ****ing suck mother ****ing ass in a field of 64.

Mudkip I wouldn't mind, he might be a legit lower midcarder. Bidoof would be pointless though.



paraboxx
But I think Zero may be the biggest Turd this time. There was legitimate upset talk for him for a while, and he wound up with 12%.

That upset talk wasn't legitimate at all. He was a massive underdog there. He still flopped, but really, he doesn't merit turd consideration. Nobody was shocked by his collapse, unless they hadn't been paying attention.

Leon or Ganon is probably the turd I guess.


Kleenex
Probably because it's Saturday.

Which he noted in like the next sentence to the one you quoted :)
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 7:09:38 PM | message detail
Why is everyone saying that L-Block is the star of the round?
...we hate pikachu


Yeah basically :) I don't think it's debatable really, Pikachu has it for this round. What he did was pretty wild.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/27/2007 7:11:32 PM | message detail
Eh, I don't think Squall was particularly impressive last round. It was pretty much all Sub Zero's poor performance giving Squall back his favorite status.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 7:12:52 PM | message detail
That wasn't a poor performance by Subby, that's was SSBSonic. believe.

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Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 7:17:11 PM | message detail
Actually we haven't, really.

Master Chief constantly underperforms against enemies he should blowout, and impresses against strong opposition when he can. I look mostly at 2005, the lone time he lost to a very strong opponent. No freaking way DK comes even close to 38% on Crono. Crono would probably 70-30 him.

I admit it's shaky as we only have one good match where he impressed on a NNer (but a few where he struggled with things he shouldn't have), but considering that the X-Box's exposure is relatively lower on the site it makes sense to me that his strength would work that way.

Additional support is contained in his performances in this very format. I don't buy that it's simply the removal of anti-votes that are taking him this far, nor do I buy it being the Halo 3 boost.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 7:39:06 PM | message detail
Master Chief constantly underperforms against enemies he should blowout, and impresses against strong opposition when he can.

This is mostly a myth.

No freaking way DK comes even close to 38% on Crono.

Now don't tell me you're actually trying to base something off Donkey Kong :) Also that was the only sword pic he's had. And we all know how much this site loves swords.

but considering that the X-Box's exposure is relatively lower on the site it makes sense to me that his strength would work that way.

It was low, it's not anymore. This site is pretty into the 360.

nor do I buy it being the Halo 3 boost.

I don't see how you can deny Halo 3 hype very likely helping him. That and/or this format has benefited him.

I don't know how he'll do next round though, he could impress and win going away, or struggle to put Luigi and Dante away.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 7:39:38 PM | message detail
Though with Pikachu's presence, Chief kind of lucked out.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 7:42:40 PM | message detail
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 7:43:03 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-56.jpg
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/27/2007 7:43:18 PM | message detail
Wow, everyone has the edge over Sonic.

And with that, it's time to modify my prediction!
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2007 7:45:00 PM | message detail
Match LVI: Squall Leonhart vs Sora vs Sonic the Hedgehog vs Sub-Zero

Past Matches

Round 2

Squall Leonhart - 33.56%
Sora - 29.92%
Aeris Gainsborough - 19.15%
Lara Croft - 17.37%

Sonic the Hedgehog - 44.39%
Sub-Zero - 23.47%
Gordon Freeman - 18.84%
Duke Nukem - 13.30%

Analysis

Last round Squall took first in the Square SFF match however Sora didn’t seem to be phased with the added Square characters and actually did better on Lara than he did last round. With SSBB announced Sonic was able to rebound from his terrible round one performance and was able to beat Sub-Zero soundly who had more troubles with Freeman than he should’ve gotten.

Sonic should be able to come in first this round. His performance last round was most impressive plus his strongest opponent has a Square character tagging along with him. Sonic needs to impress here if it wants to advance to the semi-finals. The L-Block seems to get a set number of votes each round and if Snake is a lot stronger than Sonic he may lose because he wasn’t able to round up enough votes to get over the L-Block bump.

Squall is the favorite to get second and without Aeris this round he should do much better. However Sora is also in the poll with him and may be able to hold him back somewhat. Last round if Sora was able to hold back Squall it wasn’t by much though there may be a limit on how much a character could get leeched since the Aeris and Sora fanbases seem to overlap very well. Despite that I can only see Squall losing to one character here and that’s only if there is a harsh fanbase overlap between Squall and Sora that we didn’t see because of Aeris.

While Sora did well last round I just don’t see him upsetting Squall this round. Squall is the stronger character and with no visible advantages this round except maybe the picture I see no reason why Sora would be able to sneak the upset. It would be interesting to see whether or not Sora would slice off a few hundred votes off of Squall’s lead during the day like he did last round.

Sub-Zero is the weakest of the pack though has a better chance at upsetting Squall for second. He does have to rely on some kind of fanbase overlap in order to get that win. Using Geno if Sora is able to hold back Squall then Sub-Zero has a chance getting the upset. However believing that Sora will bring down Squall despite doing nothing last round is hard to believe though if Sub-Zero does come in second that’ll be the reason.

Depending if there is a lot of fanbase overlap this will either become a boring match or an interesting match for second. Like I’ve said Sonic needs to impress in order not to look weak against L-Block though a repeat of last round’s performance would be sufficient.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic > Squall

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic - 35.28%, Squall - 25.36%, Sora - 23.26%, Sub-Zero - 16.10%

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 7:45:51 PM | message detail
This really has to be the worst themed round ever.

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Keno316 | Posted 10/27/2007 7:46:34 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-56.jpg

Hahaha...over-pixilated Sonic!
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Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 7:51:32 PM | message detail
This is mostly a myth.

52% on Felix... 67% on CATS? Come on, now. Only time he's dealt with a foe to our satisfaction was against Crash Bandicoot.

It was low, it's not anymore. This site is pretty into the 360.

But they weren't before, meaning that Master Chief being as strong as he was was pretty damn impressive. And it's still low when compared to the Wii.

I don't see how you can deny Halo 3 hype very likely helping him. That and/or this format has benefited him

I do think Halo 3 helps a bit, but not this much. And yes, the format has benefitted him. That's my whole point, characters with more static fanbases do better here.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 7:51:53 PM | message detail
oh geez sonic

classix sub, squall lookin' good, sora's decent, but...eh
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 8:02:54 PM | message detail
I think Sonic's pic is fine.

Is this the first time we're seeing Sonic vs. Kingdom Hearts? The old king of the day vote vs. the new co-king (along with Chief). The Sonic series day vote has died off in recent years, though maybe Brawl hype will boost Sonic's own day vote back then.

Also, seems lots of people are taking Sora to finish higher than Sub-Zero. Surprising to me, but I guess it makes sense. With the addition of another character stronger than him though, Sora probably won't hold up as well relative to Squall as he did last round. Sub-Zero should also suffer though, so maybe it evens out.


52% on Felix... 67% on CATS? Come on, now.

Felix was a huge upset darling in the match. That match looks weird now, but lots of people expected Felix to beat Chief outright.

I also well remember going on and on in this topic about how CATS would do great against Chief, because of lack of static fanbase for CATS - his face picture makes him much more powerful.

All in all, this is just myth that for some reason refuses to die.

That's my whole point, characters with more static fanbases do better here.

Chief does NOT have a static fanbase, never has, never will.

I don't really know how you can argue for this, because such a fanbase would show in this contest more than in any other, and yet Chief's percentages have fluctuated. It's all about the competition, as always.

The only character that I won't dismiss the static fanbase notion for is L-Block, though it's highly questionable there as well.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/27/2007 8:07:12 PM | message detail
Just some questions: When does PST Daylight Saving end? Isn't it next Sunday morning... which apparently is the day of the final too? 25 hours for the final = very high votals! should be enough to break the highest votal record in GameFAQs poll (which I think was held by the first day of Battle Royale - 159,347 votes).
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 8:07:52 PM | message detail
BTW, on my gallery one of the random pics was the Mario Bros. vs. Final Fantasy picture from the series contest, which caught my attention.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=7&pos=29

Now these two seem like they have to be very un-pic-sensitive...I mean, it's two of the most well known franchises ever, how pic sensitive could they be? Who would change their vote for these two based on picture?

But...now that we how how ungodly weak FF12 is at this site, is anything else considering that the Ashe picture might have cost Final Fantasy a few points there? At the time there was discussion about it, but I think most agreed it wouldn't be such a big deal. But we also didn't think FF12 characters would be such weaklings.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/27/2007 8:08:34 PM | message detail
It's on the day of the finals? Cloud benefits from that
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/27/2007 8:09:26 PM | message detail
<3
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2007 8:11:57 PM | message detail
It's on the day of the finals? Cloud benefits from that

Oh don't try to be humble hochi, we all know you knew this from the beginning, and that it played a role in your decision to pick Cloud :) Everything is unfolding exactly as you foresaw...
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Lopen | Posted 10/27/2007 8:18:37 PM | message detail
Well it'd be foolish to assume Chief's whole fanbase is static. What I'm saying is he's got, maybe, a good 28% of the site that'll vote him over virtually anything, and that's why his percentages look so good in this format. He's got 28% of the site voting him over anything and then decent strength among the rest of the site. A partially static, partially variable fanbase.

Gordon Freeman and L-Block have the same thing on smaller scales going for them, I think.
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