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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 535

swirIdude | Posted 10/26/2007 11:05:58 PM | message detail
lol hiko.
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Number of people who have responded to my post with only prepositions: 38
National Shoddy League: 1-0
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:06:13 PM | message detail
epic 6 vote gain
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GSB International Champion
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 11:06:35 PM | message detail
Kratos took the lead over L-Block after 9 AM
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:06:51 PM | message detail
lol Board 8 and their obsession with Phoenix
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:06:54 PM | message detail
That comment was more aimed at you calling Phoenix a joke character - I'm not bothered by the idea that L-Block isn't a joke character any more than I am a term like 'LFF'. The idea that the difference between this picture and HM's is worth 10 or more percent is something else, though... especially when you completely dismiss the notion of there being reasons for the other side of the argument.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
smitelf | Posted 10/26/2007 11:07:12 PM | message detail
L-Block's # of votes (as of 2am): 7077
L-Block's # of votes at 2am in round 2: 6612
L-Block's # of votes at 2am in round 1: 7030
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:08:08 PM | message detail
I still don't understand how tetris block is eligible while RTS units are not.

Hey, I think every year we should 16 seeds like "Mass Carriers" :) Most of us would love that I think.

Wanting L-Block to be even MORE powerful.

As much fun as I have seeing L-Block do well, I actually would prefer him not to do that well next round, given his opposition. Not that I would mind either.

Also, are you denying that there is a strong possibility L-Block will get stronger next round? Either due to pic or voter loyalty factor (as the competition next round is tougher, if L has more loyal voters his strength goes up)?

Best case scenario is in a direct match Tetris gets bailed out by its own picture (I-block/L-Block SFF...?). Indirectly, though... Tetris gets mauled.

I'm not sure why you think this. L did get his ass kicked by Kirby in round 1, remember. Either that was A) due to the picture, in which case L could be in real trouble against Tetris; or B) due to voter loyalty/format issues, in which case, again, L is in trouble against Tetris which is "legit".

Really though, I don't think anyone could make any statements with confidence about such a strange match. We've surely never seen anything like that, and would have nothing to do on.


Is it just me or was L-Block the most annoying block to get normally in Tetris too?

No way, Z-block easily.
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creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:08:43 PM | message detail
Or square block.
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chaos knight | Posted 10/26/2007 11:09:21 PM | message detail
Ah, yeah. Forgot about Z-block; been probably a decade since I last played Tetris.
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You know, if Microsoft were to stage a hostile takeover of EA...I'd actually cheer them on.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:10:53 PM | message detail
ONE VOTE ON DECK
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:11:19 PM | message detail
Hmm...so when is Snake supposed to start making consistent cuts, exactly? <_<
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CB6 - 234/352; Oracle - 33rd
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smitelf | Posted 10/26/2007 11:11:35 PM | message detail
I find it incomprehensible - utterly incomprehensible - that people can even debate this at this point. I mean, it couldn't possibly be staring people in the face any harder.

There are other explanations, like L-Block having the most devoted "fanbase" of any character in this contest. I'm confident that, no matter who it is up against, it is guaranteed a certain number of votes. And that's the key to its success in later rounds, because as other characters drop as statistics would predict, L-Block's voter base remains mostly static.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:11:42 PM | message detail
NEVER
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:12:23 PM | message detail
Also, are you denying that there is a strong possibility L-Block will get stronger next round?

Not at all, he should look even better from a relative standpoint. But he'll be up against even MORE competition with much less overlap (seriously, are you COMPLETELY overlooking the fanbase splitting happening today, because Snake and Kratos can be argued as close as Dante/Leon and then some), and Snake will be much stronger as well. But the majority of it is the format - I don't think a GB/NES picture will bail him out of anything that wouldn't already be within a percent of closeness.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Yesmar | Posted 10/26/2007 11:12:57 PM | message detail
Bacon probably wouldn't allow Mass Carriers in either, since they're not a single character.
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creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:13:31 PM | message detail
The idea that the difference between this picture and HM's is worth 10 or more percent is something else, though... especially when you completely dismiss the notion of there being reasons for the other side of the argument.

Well, something is clearly worth 10 points in strength for L block. The pic factor seem like the first, most obvious thing (again, that 1st round picture was ungodly awful for L). Loyalty factor is another possibility, though my opinion is that pic factor is much more important. There's even "seen him in the contest before" factor, maybe - people in his first appearance were like "WTF is L-Block", but as the rounds progress, and they see his pictures they're liike "Oh!" I myself would doubt that, but can't dismiss it completely.

Let's put it this way though - if L-Block got his 1st round picture, vs. that pic HM posted a few pages back, my Oracle prediction would swing massively. And lots of others would probably do the same.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:14:53 PM | message detail
I think you guys need to step back for a second and contemplate the fact that we're talking about L-Block hanging tough with Snake, Sonic and Squall/Sora/Subby next round.

Think about that.
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CB6 - 234/352; Oracle - 33rd
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:15:51 PM | message detail
I can understand the difference between L-Block getting his Round 1 picture and a GB/NES sprite being worth that kind of a swing. I can't see the difference between TODAY'S picture and said sprite being worth that much. This is a great, recognizable sprite for L-Block. It's not his best, but seriously, it's about the same as arguing which of Snake's sprites hurt him the least.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:16:13 PM | message detail
noooo
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 11:17:19 PM | message detail
L-Block is the like the anti-contestant. See, check this out. All the cool fans have a sense of humor so they'll vote for L-Block. All the stiff fans will stubbornly stick to their favorite character. So you see, the cooler a character's fans are, THE STRONGER L-BLOCK GETS.

Clearly fans of Snake are the ultimate in cool so L-Block gets to perform well today. This theory makes perfect sense IMOIMO
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:19:55 PM | message detail
There are other explanations, like L-Block having the most devoted "fanbase" of any character in this contest.

Yes, I termed this "loyalty" factor. It's possible, but I would lean much more towards picture. But it could be loyalty, we don't know.

I'm confident that, no matter who it is up against, it is guaranteed a certain number of votes.

I disagree with this though. People have thought this type of thing plenty of times in the past, and been wrong every single time. You can definitely come up with extreme match examples where L would just collapse relative to where he is now.


(seriously, are you COMPLETELY overlooking the fanbase splitting happening today, because Snake and Kratos can be argued as close as Dante/Leon and then some

Yes actually. I did mention Snake hurting Kratos more, because pretty much any non-Nintendo characters should have more overlap with each other than with L-Block, IMO. However I think it's a minor factor in the match compared to whatever else is going on. Especially for Snake - how much could Kratos really hurt him anyway? Not nearly as much as Solid **** I would think.


I think you guys need to step back for a second and contemplate the fact that we're talking about L-Block hanging tough with Snake, Sonic and Squall/Sora/Subby next round.

Think about that.


Hey, that's why L is so cool :) L is the...um..."man"?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 11:21:38 PM | message detail
Also, everyone knows that clearly all Squall fans are stupid poo-poo heads so L-Block will not do so well next round
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:21:43 PM | message detail
now that was a cut
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/26/2007 11:23:46 PM | message detail
People have thought this type of thing plenty of times in the past, and been wrong every single time.

Mudkip?
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creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:23:54 PM | message detail
I can understand the difference between L-Block getting his Round 1 picture and a GB/NES sprite being worth that kind of a swing. I can't see the difference between TODAY'S picture and said sprite being worth that much. This is a great, recognizable sprite for L-Block. It's not his best, but seriously, it's about the same as arguing which of Snake's sprites hurt him the least.

Oh yes, this is a much better picture than earlier rounds, I said that already. That's why he's doing so well compared to earlier rounds! :)

But it's possible he'll get a better one next round. Combine that with loyalty factor or what have you, as well as possible Brawl overlap, and you have a potentially cwaaazy match.

L at the strength he'll be showing by the end of this match can't take 2nd next round, especially since this is a weakened Snake. But this is almost certainly a sub-optimal L-Block as well. Either due to pic factor, or loyalty factor, or whatever.
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creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:24:55 PM | message detail
Mudkip?

Eh? Mudkip wasn't really an example of that thinking. And certainly not when you consider that was due to stuffing, which, obviously, is 100% loyal.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:25:37 PM | message detail
CATS is probably the best example of the "guarenteed to get at least this many votes" thing.
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CB6 - 234/352; Oracle - 33rd
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:26:08 PM | message detail
Especially for Snake - how much could Kratos really hurt him anyway? Not nearly as much as Solid **** I would think.

No, it's not on the level of Solid ****, but it's more than, say, Riku or anything like that. Snake and Kratos are the respective #1 and #2 badasses in the Sony camp, and get endlessly compared to each other. The gameplay of their games aren't that similar, but you can say the same thing about DMC and RE - it's the similar mature themes that drive them together. It's not on the level of Solid ****, but when you add in Solid **** and overlap with Kratos/Riku, it's that much more that L-Block has to deal with next round. To put it another way, I could easily see L-Block advance over Snake today, even now - perhaps especially now. Not having near the same fear next round.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:27:20 PM | message detail
Err, finish over Snake. I keep forgetting both advance (thankfully).
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
smitelf | Posted 10/26/2007 11:28:00 PM | message detail
I disagree with this though. People have thought this type of thing plenty of times in the past, and been wrong every single time.

It doesn't follow that it can't be correct now, particularly since L-block is a pretty unique case. I can maybe buy a pic factor influence, though, when I think about it, but I actually think his second-round pic would be more damaging than his first, because he's sideways.

However, I can't see why any straight-on, L-shaped pic (like today's or the GB version) wouldn't be the same as any other. As long as it looks like an L, it's fine.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
"I just happen to think you are an idiot. Why must it be so personal?" - Sir Chris
creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:29:59 PM | message detail
Also, everyone knows that clearly all Squall fans are stupid poo-poo heads so L-Block will not do so well next round

Why is it that I kind of nodded in agreement at this in a non-joke way? :)

Actually I do hope Squall doesn't finish last next round. I don't actually like Squall, but I wouldn't like someone of his strength finishing below L-Block. Also I tend to root for Square in general.

Still think the next match is most likely will come down to Snake vs. Sonic...but a real legit pic for L-Block might get him within 5 points of them, and if either one takes the whole Brawl boost of the other, or they LFF significantly, L could make noise.

He'll probably be leading for a while in that match regardless of how he finishes there. (which also probably means Squall will look like total fodder for a while, now that I think about it)
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Oxbridge | Posted 10/26/2007 11:32:22 PM | message detail
I bracket voted for Snake, but i would love to see L-Block to win.
creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:35:20 PM | message detail
I can buy Snake hurting Kratos more than Kratos hurting Snake, but I really don't think it's much of a factor, considering how much better L is doing against Kratos than last round. I think other things are responsible for that.

One thing might again be somewhat related to the loyalty idea - that "all characters SFF each other", and thus someone like Snake will make someone much weaker like Kratos look weaker, but that L will be less affected by this. Still, I think the picture is the most important thing.


It doesn't follow that it can't be correct now, particularly since L-block is a pretty unique case. I can maybe buy a pic factor influence, though, when I think about it, but I actually think his second-round pic would be more damaging than his first, because he's sideways.

When I saw the 2nd round pic I thought it was an improvement over the 1st round. Though I think Kirby/DK LFF was a bigger deal for L-Block in that match than the picture.

However, I can't see why any straight-on, L-shaped pic (like today's or the GB version) wouldn't be the same as any other. As long as it looks like an L, it's fine.

Yes, this is why this is by far his best picture so far.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/26/2007 11:35:34 PM | message detail
Snake and Kratos are the respective #1 and #2 badasses in the Sony camp, and get endlessly compared to each other.

...they do? Where? I've seen far more Dante vs. Kratos than Snake vs. Kratos.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2007 11:36:25 PM | message detail
L-Block needs to stall moar
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creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:37:04 PM | message detail
It's amazing how much less update posts there have been than usual since we veered off into this picture talk. Where's your "WHOAMG epic 7 vote cut!" post spamming, stats topic? For shame :)
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creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:38:40 PM | message detail
...they do? Where? I've seen far more Dante vs. Kratos than Snake vs. Kratos.

Actually this is true, I have seen Dante and Kratos compared multiple places, never Snake and Kratos.

Though KH will probably respond by how one comparison does not necessarily rule out the other. I've never seen Snake/Kratos compared myself, but they do share a console, and I never saw Dante/Leon compared either.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:39:23 PM | message detail
...they do? Where? I've seen far more Dante vs. Kratos than Snake vs. Kratos.

How many MGS boards do you frequent? <.<

Dante gets compared endlessly as well (though to be fair, he would have significantly more overlap with Kratos). Snake shares significant overlap with Dante as well though, don't get me wrong.

Of course you're going to see more Dante v Kratos in serious practice though because those two are just out of Snake's league in power.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:40:00 PM | message detail
No reason counting updates anymore! This match is gonna be pretty straightforward from here on out unless Snake really decides to suck it up during the day.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:46:13 PM | message detail
I don't understand why people would count L-Block out here - the day vote aside, this is Snake's best time and he's barely coming back on him. Did L-Block's percentage bleed become more pronounced as the day went on in his previous matches?
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:48:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, it kinda did.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:50:29 PM | message detail
That's not to say L has no chance. Looks like his worst time is the early morning - 6:00 to 8:00 or so. He recovered a bit for the rest of the day, but was still only averaging about 25% or so compared to the mid 30s he was pulling early on.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:51:51 PM | message detail
That's a better day vote indication than Snake has. :)

...

:(
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:52:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, it lost about 3% from the start of the morning to the end of the poll in both matches. I'd say Snake is fine.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2007 11:53:14 PM | message detail
Lost updates to Frog

why am I arguing this
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
creativename | Posted 10/26/2007 11:55:28 PM | message detail
That's a better day vote indication than Snake has. :)

...

:(


Don't worry, Snake has this. Been over for a while, in terms of 1st place.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2887&type=2
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2907&type=2

L-Block is like the reverse-Final Fantasy 7, he bleeds percentage all day. (well, I guess that would make him the not-so-reverse Chrono Trigger)
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 11:57:01 PM | message detail
l-block wins the night vote game over snake
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fluffyflyingpig | Posted 10/26/2007 11:59:14 PM | message detail
So, we nominated a bunch of pokemon and a bloody BLOCK from tetris. We got Carmen Sandiego in while ago. Why not Star Wars characters? There are dozens upon dozens of Star Wars games. And you can't tell me Yoda wouldn't get more votes that Pikachu and Pikachu advanced to round 4 already.


Rally Yoda and Darth Vader for 2008!

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/27/2007 12:01:13 AM | message detail
Uh...probably because Star Wars characters aren't allowed.
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voltch | Posted 10/27/2007 12:01:16 AM | message detail
gah,damn you spite snake!damn you!
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*shakes fist at his own bracket*
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