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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 534

MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/25/2007 10:20:40 PM | message detail
So I heard u liek Pikachuz?

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Big Bob | Posted 10/25/2007 10:22:08 PM | message detail
I wanna be the very best
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"You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush
PIaystation | Posted 10/25/2007 10:22:25 PM | message detail
pikachu for president!!
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The original Playstation!
~*~Sony Supporter~*~
__Mega64__ | Posted 10/26/2007 1:29:59 AM | message detail
Best match of the contest?

I say so!
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Save the box, save the world.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/26/2007 1:31:06 AM | message detail
With that sprite, how could he lose? <3 <3 <3
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I didn't think that a N9, even if he's Crono, would lose to Vincent....And I'm not a furry, damnit!
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/26/2007 1:37:42 AM | message detail
Poor Mewtwo.

---
Our life is short and our days run; as fast away as does the sun. And as a vapour or a drop of rain; once lost can ne'er be found again.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 1:53:13 AM | message detail
Dante couldn't even really make a match of it during the night time. What a bore
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
greatone10 | Posted 10/26/2007 2:12:09 AM | message detail
L-Block is cool. Pikachu, ugly Ratatta wannabe, and ugly Squirtle wannabe are not.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs.
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 10/26/2007 2:14:24 AM | message detail
Where can get update stats? Like who wins each update?
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Playing: Eternal Sonata|Portal| Phoenix Wright 3
XBGamerTag: RivieraPhantom
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2007 2:27:39 AM | message detail
I just looked through the various Dante/Ammy polls and noticed that Dante is doing about a couple of percent better in this match compared to Ammy than he was in the previous rounds despite the stronger competition. Maybe we can use this to see that slight variation that occurs to the last place character.

Dante/Ammy 1:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2883&num=2
-Ammy easily takes 2nd

Dante/Ammy 2: (With Ada in the poll)
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2905&num=2
-Ammy does her best here in relation to Dante and places 2nd in a close match

Dante/Ammy 3: (With Leon in the poll)
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2916&sort=time&type=ASC&num=2
-Ammy does her worst here in relation to Dante and gets last in the poll
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2007 3:03:37 AM | message detail
What happened there? Dante dropped off and Pika pulled in 38%
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/26/2007 3:06:03 AM | message detail
Hardest. contest to predict. ever. o_0
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Current Score: 228/336 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
NP: Dante > Leon Kennedy
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/26/2007 3:22:39 AM | message detail
Hey guys

You were right, there's no Dante/Leon LFF at all

oh wait woops. ARG STUPID RAT
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 3:24:02 AM | message detail
There is none. See Dante is getting close to expectations. Clearly it's Leon and Amaterasu that are suffering from LFF
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 3:27:35 AM | message detail
Anyway, 6:26 and Pikachu still hasn't taken off. The morning vote should be here by now or at least very soon. If Dante can resist Pikachu's morning maybe the match has hope. Seems like Pikachu's lead so far as come almost entirely from the power hour
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
shadow8021 | Posted 10/26/2007 3:27:44 AM | message detail
Gawd, this contest is wack!
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Character Battle Score: 250/320
Today's Pick: Ganondorf > Master Chief
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2007 3:31:53 AM | message detail
Me and my big mouth.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
cyko | Posted 10/26/2007 3:33:37 AM | message detail
HA! told you guys that Dante and Leon would drag each other down! and that Ammy could hurt them as well! of course, it probably has more to do with those barely recognizable pictures...... and even i didn't see Pikachu squeaking into first place. yeesh.

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2007 3:33:45 AM | message detail
There's our morning vote. Looks like it's just Leon who's dropping off.
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/26/2007 3:59:02 AM | message detail
Damn, I was like, "Pikachu has no chance, I'll vote for him as pity," and BAM. wtf.
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(|| ' ' ||) Host of "Who would win in a Fight?"
. /|_|\ NOITHING LOIK A FIST FULL OF LOIGHTNING
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/26/2007 4:02:33 AM | message detail
damn, I thought I would get Zero points from today. With Pikachu in first I am going to get 8.


KB
cyko | Posted 10/26/2007 4:28:09 AM | message detail
the other funny part of this match is that my Vivi > Dante pick will score more points than Dante > Leon. heh.

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/26/2007 4:56:26 AM | message detail
Sucks that Leon will be eliminated, but the insanity of this upset makes it a bit better. Hahaha!
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz
"NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2007 4:57:46 AM | message detail
Wow.

Dante didn't do anything with the night vote. LFF or SFF or SPF or whatever, Pikachu's making Dante and Leon look like crap.
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CB6 - 230/336; Oracle - 35th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/26/2007 5:02:25 AM | message detail
How much of this are we attributing to picture? Dante is a smudge, Leon is in an RE2 outfit (the bulk of his popularity is RE4) and Pikachu is very easily recognisable.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz
"NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows
Diorelli | Posted 10/26/2007 5:09:57 AM | message detail
Leon is in an RE2 outfit (the bulk of his popularity is RE4) and Pikachu is very easily recognisable.

I thought of this as well. I would like to think this would be a closer match if he had his RE4 pic/sprite. I doubt he'll win but most of the people who played RE4 haven't played the other installments.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/26/2007 5:13:42 AM | message detail
Ugh, this match are sick! And it's not just because of Pikachu winning, but that Leon>Dante ends up being a better pick than Dante>Leon thanks to the ridiculous scoring flaw. And ironically I'll be depending on that flaw next round since I have Ganon>Dante.
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Current Points: 267 -- 7th on Leaderboard
11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality!
Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/26/2007 5:38:28 AM | message detail
If this result holds (and I'm 90% sure it will), what do you guys figure are the odds off MC > Dante next round.
That match may be my only chance to get back on the leader board for a day or 2.

I'm worried that MC > Luigi because MC will Badass-SFF Dante, while Pikachu hardly does anything to hurt Luigi. Pokemon seem to be fairly independent from the other Nintendo characters.
I could even see Luigi > MC or Luigi > Dante, if the Badass split is rather even. Hell, even Luigi > Pika may be possible (which would prove yet again that there is no God)
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
charmander6000 | Posted 10/26/2007 5:41:58 AM | message detail
More like Pikachu > Luigi.

Though I do agree that Pikachu probably won't do anything to hurt Luigi, if Mewtwo had hurt Bowser in round one he would've been able to beat Ryu in round 2.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 54: Dante > Leon Kennedy Points: 225/336
Who Cares? | Posted 10/26/2007 6:04:44 AM | message detail
Before I saw today's poll, I would say Luigi>MC had a strong chance of happening...not anymore though, not with the yellow rat there instead of Leon.
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Current Points: 267 -- 7th on Leaderboard
11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 6:35:05 AM | message detail
I'm still finding it hard to believe that the split between Dante and Leon is bad enough for Pikachu to take first. I mean, I expected them to be within 5-6% of each other, but Pikachu is just doing ALOT better than I thought.

Who would've imagined Pika would go from 24% with Leon and a Vivi//Tidus split to 33% with Dante/Leon split and Ammy?
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Dante/Ammy/Leon/Pikachu - Bracket: Dante > Leon - Vote: Ammy (283/346)
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/26/2007 6:38:27 AM | message detail
squall > gannondorf. agreed? KB
charmander6000 | Posted 10/26/2007 6:53:10 AM | message detail
This must be Ash's Pikachu, beats strong characters and loses to weak characters.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 54: Dante > Leon Kennedy Points: 225/336
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2007 6:55:42 AM | message detail
Since every Pokémon have done so great in this contest, we totally need to rally for the most awesome Pok´´emon of all time next year, Bulbasaur!!!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/26/2007 6:56:55 AM | message detail
Weird to becuase RE2 was the best selling of the old REs...like over 5 million units if I remember...a pic from a game like that shouldnt hurt him

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
charmander6000 | Posted 10/26/2007 6:58:44 AM | message detail
RE was a dying series until RE4 came out.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 54: Dante > Leon Kennedy Points: 225/336
Rokoko | Posted 10/26/2007 7:06:02 AM | message detail
No other Pokemon could come close to this, but first gen really is the way to go if you want the general audience to vote for them.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2007 7:09:08 AM | message detail
The "Pikachu was hurt in his last rounds" theory is without merit. Without Tidus hurting him more than Pikachu, Vivi wins that match. And as we saw in Round 1, Vivi isn't on Leon's level.

Hm? That would only explain the result partially. Perhaps Pikachu IS actually stronger than Vivi, and that... here's the nonsense... Pikachu was hurt by Vivi as much as Tidus was (though I could see Tidus/Vivi LFF being pretty minimal...). But, even so, it wouldn't come even close to explaining today's result, so I'll just blame it on the pictures and Dante/Leon hurting each other... I would guess that Pikachu is benefitting while Leon Kennedy is suffering from the pic. Anyway, the fact remains that Pikachu is blowing Leon out of the water. One shouldn't say the explanation for Pikachu's success today is, without a doubt, 100% all due to factors in today's match (though it certainly is possible).

Yup, just discussing it with Ngamer... Basically no good bracket has Pikachu here... So all the "wrong" Leon > Dante gain 4 points on the better Dante > Leon!
Urgh, I hate this. Worse yet is that most likely we'll be seeing MC > Dante next round, meaning that those with Ganondorf > Dante get 8 more points than those with Ganondorf > MC (I'm looking at YOU, Moltar)... noooooo. =p

the other funny part of this match is that my Vivi > Dante pick will score more points than Dante > Leon. heh.
I hate you, too!

-Ammy does her worst here in relation to Dante and gets last in the poll
Ammy's picture is horrendous. I couldn't even tell what it was...

Though I do agree that Pikachu probably won't do anything to hurt Luigi, if Mewtwo had hurt Bowser in round one he would've been able to beat Ryu in round 2.
I'm starting to wonder if it was -Toad- who mostly hurt Bowser in Round 1 (Bowser did indeed catch up 6% to Ryu the next round)... we might never know. Anyway, I really do hope there is minimal LFF between Pikachu and Luigi in hopes that Luigi beats out Dante next round.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 7:09:13 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
FinalFantasyTactics | Posted 10/26/2007 7:09:32 AM | message detail
I find it disgusting and funny how Mewtwo can get robbed in round 1 and see Pikachu succeed in beating three Square and Capcom characters.

*cues Beatles' Flying*
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Counter Strike: Source Ownz!!
Whit3_Rabb1t | Posted 10/26/2007 7:21:12 AM | message detail
Pikachu's going to the semis!
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http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2007 7:38:28 AM | message detail
No way. Luigi in the semis! Why, if that happened... Luigi would get further than Mario.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2007 7:44:22 AM | message detail
I can't see Pikachu SFF Luigi. It just seems impossible. And Luigi getting further than Mario is ultra awesome.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
voltch | Posted 10/26/2007 7:56:30 AM | message detail
i come back from holiday to find myself speechless?

oh and is the noble nine actually broken or do we discount the loss because of the format?
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*shakes fist at his own bracket*
consolefreak | Posted 10/26/2007 8:17:09 AM | message detail
Who would've imagined Pika would go from 24% with Leon and a Vivi//Tidus split to 33% with Dante/Leon split and Ammy?

Yeah, it's clear that the pic is a bit of a factor here. Leon's bad pic was to be expected, but to have it turn out better than Dante's is a big surprise, to say the least. Seriously, where did he that absolutely hideous pic from? And more importantly, why? It's even worse than Yuna's was.

Another obvious reason for the great Pikachu performance (though it doesn't really explain why he's doing so much better than last round) is some Leon-Dante leeching going on here. It's pretty easy to see. Resident Evil 4, Devil May Cry, both pretty similar PS2 hits. The GC NA version outsold the PS2 version, sure, but there's still a lot of reason for some overlap.

what do you guys figure are the odds off MC > Dante next round.

Pretty good. Luigi will make a match out of it, but Pikachu should drag him down enough.

if Mewtwo had hurt Bowser in round one he would've been able to beat Ryu in round 2.

Not really. In round 1, Ryu beats Bowser by 53.99%, the next round he goes to 60.57%. Some of that can be attributed to Toad, no doubt. But it's still a pretty big leap. Some of that must've been Mewtwo. Take him away, and the split definitely favours Bowser enough to give it to him.

Also, we've seen in Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara that a fanbase can get divided a lot and still win. However, with Master Chief and Dante in Lara's stead, any mild form of LFF becomes exponentially worse. A Master Chief-Dante-Luigi 3-pack could go pretty much any way, IMO. Add Pikachu and Master Chief > Dante has to become the favourite option. Not by a lot, but still.

Yup, just discussing it with Ngamer... Basically no good bracket has Pikachu here... So all the "wrong" Leon > Dante gain 4 points on the better Dante > Leon!

Me! =p though to be fair, I had Leon > Dante because I thought Tidus would be here with Balthier today, both hurting Dante a wee bit. Also, it makes up for my 'bad' MC > Ganondorf pic (which totally would've happened under normal circumstances). Actually, it doesn't since I have MC > Ganon for next round as well :(
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252/336. Today : Leon > Dante. Tomorrow : Snake > Kirby
*One_Winged_Ange*
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/26/2007 8:17:41 AM | message detail
.....


WHAT
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
"OoT doesn't have "the magic" because it has no Tingle." - onethousandfingers
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/26/2007 8:20:19 AM | message detail
So.... any chance Dante comes back and wins? >_>

I guess I had this coming from getting 8 points for Ganon > Luigi yesterday. >_<
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
"OoT doesn't have "the magic" because it has no Tingle." - onethousandfingers
consolefreak | Posted 10/26/2007 8:23:49 AM | message detail
oh and is the noble nine actually broken or do we discount the loss because of the format?

Since I find the term 'noble nine' to be more about status than anything else (there are no objective criteria for it), I find the sheer discussion about the matter reason enough to consider the noble nine 'broken'. But I'm sure it won't be universally accepted as 'broken' until someone from them loses 1 on 1.

Also, the argument that 4-packs aren't accurate enough to make the call (usually supported by examples such as 'Link/Samus/Mario/Vincent --> lawl Vincent > Samus/Mario) is pretty lame, IMO. There is absolutely no reason to assume any substantial SFF in the Vincent > Crono 4-pack.

Did we discredit Clinkeroth after Snake 'beat' Sephiroth? Does Mario need to join Clinkeroth since he beat Cloud? No, because it's not to be taken literally. It's about status, respect. Can anyone really argue that Crono didn't lose either of these?
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252/336. Today : Leon > Dante. Tomorrow : Snake > Kirby
*One_Winged_Ange*
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/26/2007 8:29:10 AM | message detail
just woke up, and this is probably the worst result in the history of ever.

also hooray for leon > dante getting more points than me, darn you horrible system set-up.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2007 8:31:29 AM | message detail
ppf I knew that Dante would be in the second place, yet I had a hard time to choose if Leon or Vivi would win this division. Clearly I deserve more points than you silly fools who have Dante > Leon.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
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